FLORENCE THREATENS WORST-CASE SCENARIO: You know when the Marines talk about retreating, we’ve got a serious threat. Hurricane Florence is bearing down on the Carolina coast and is expected to make landfall tomorrow night or early Friday morning as a Category 4 storm that forecasters say could be the most destructive storm in a quarter of a century. It’s expected to stall over the area dumping 15-25 inches of rain, which could result in catastrophic flooding.

HAPPENING TODAY: Congress is beginning work on a series of spending bills in an attempt to accomplish something that it hasn’t managed to pull off in a decade: approve them on time and avoid a continuing resolution. The first of the so-called “minibus” measures covers defense spending as well funding for the Labor, Health and Human Services and Education departments.

Ahead of today’s consideration of the first Minibus Conference Report on the House Floor, Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry urged passage before the beginning of the fiscal year on Oct 1.

“This appropriations package provides crucial support to our national security and to our veterans. Not only does it get elements of our military and the defense nuclear enterprise the resources they need, but it gives it to them on time so they can make good use of it,” Thornberry said in a statement. “Our military infrastructure is at a crisis point. Veterans struggle to access services, and leaders from both parties have recognized the need for new investment in our nuclear enterprise.  This bill tackles each of these problems. It should be supported, and then we must ensure that we fully fund all elements of our nation’s security.”

YEMEN SUPPORT ‘BREAKING POINT’: The Trump administration faces a Yemen war deadline today. It must certify to Congress that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are working to alleviate the humanitarian crisis, limit civilian casualties, and bring the war to an end. Otherwise, an annual defense bill passed in August mandates an end to the Pentagon’s in-flight refueling of both countries’ warplanes.

Sens. Todd Young and Jeanne Shaheen warned in a Washington Post op-ed that opposition to the U.S. support in Congress could solidify if the administration blows the deadline. “For the sake of the United States’ interests and our humanitarian principles, we hope the administration complies with the law and submits a good-faith certification by Wednesday. If that does not happen, support for the coalition in Congress may reach a breaking point as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis deteriorates further,” they wrote.

TALIBAN REPORTED READY TO TALK: The Associated Press is reporting that the Taliban are ready for a second round of talks with the U.S., possibly as soon as this month. A Taliban official, who spoke to AP from Qatar where the Taliban maintain a political office, said they are waiting on Washington for a second meeting date. The next round of talks would likely focus on prisoner exchanges, confidence-building measures, and ways to move from back-door meetings to formal negotiations, the AP reported, citing interviews with Taliban officials in recent days.

In one of his impromptu drop-by briefings in the Pentagon’s correspondent’s corridor yesterday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said the U.S. is getting mixed messages from the Taliban. “They’ve increased their violence in some parts of the country, not in all parts of course. But they’ve also shown an increased interest in reconciliation. We’ll have to see which way it goes.”

But Mattis cited what he called “non-quantifiable factors” that he said show the trend in Afghanistan is going in the right direction. “For the first time, we have some semblance of strength to the reconciliation effort.” He said that was “very apparent” from his visit to Afghanistan last week. “The yearning for peace is widespread, and we’re coming up on 2019 and 40 years is enough. This is 40 years since the Soviet invasion that turned that society on its head,” he said. “Now, whether or not that is strong enough to promote it at the speed we want, I don’t know.”

MORE WARNINGS ON SYRIA: Mattis also repeated U.S. warnings that Syrian President Bashar Assad faces another punishing attack from the U.S. and its allies if he uses chemical weapons in his government assaults on the rebel stronghold of Idlib. “He’s been warned. And the first time around, he lost 17 percent of his pointy-nosed air force airplanes. He’s been warned, and so we’ll see if he’s wised up,” Mattis said.

At the United Nations, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley also issued an unequivocal warning. “We consider any assault on Idlib to be a reckless escalation of the conflict. If Assad, Russia and Iran continue down the path they are on, the consequences will be dire,” Haley said in remarks before the Security Council. “I also want to reiterate what I said last week to the Assad regime and anyone else contemplating the use of chemical weapons in Syria. The United States followed through when we said that we would respond to the use of chemical weapons. We stand by this warning.”

Haley said Russia alone has the power to stop the catastrophe looming in Idlib. “They have the power to stop the killing. They still have the power to match their words of peace with deeds by working in Geneva to achieve a political transition in Syria.”

DESPICABLE ‘DOUBLE-TAP’: Haley also accused Syria and Russia of war crimes in how its airstrikes in Idlib are deliberately targeting non-combatants. “Russian and Assad regime air forces launched over 100 airstrikes. They are using barrel bombs, rockets, and artillery. They are targeting hospitals and medical facilities,” Haley said. “They are conducting ruthless ‘double-tap strikes’ on civilian volunteers like the White Helmets. For those listening who haven’t heard of double-tap strikes, that’s when pro-regime forces strike an area, wait a few moments for first responders to arrive, and then strike again. It is a disgusting tactic of terrorists, not professional soldiers.”

BLACKMAIL CLAIM: The U.S. threats to use force against Syria amounts to blackmail, a top Russian official responded yesterday. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov accused the Trump administration of planning to falsely blame Syria’s leaders for the use of any chemical weapons there, as a pretext for a “massive” military strike.

RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE IN MACEDONIA: Mattis also announced he will travel to Macedonia this weekend to send a message of solidarity, amid concerns Moscow is trying to do in Macedonia what it did in Montenegro. Macedonia is the newest country to be invited to join NATO, infuriating Russia, which sees the western alliance encroaching on its area of influence, especially after bringing Montenegro into the fold. Both Macedonia and Montenegro were part of the former Yugoslavia.

Officials in Montenegro accused Moscow of attempting to have the country’s prime minister assassinated and trying to stage a coup in a failed attempt to prevent the country from joining the NATO alliance. Now Mattis says he’s worried that Macedonia might face similar interference from Russia. “I am concerned about it. I think that democracies should be left alone,” Mattis said, adding his goal is “to make sure that they know that we believe it should be our Macedonian friends charting their country’s future, and not outsiders.”

KOREAN WAR REMAINS ID’d: In his back and forth with reporters yesterday, Mattis revealed that so far two of the 55 sets of remains repatriated by North Korea have been positively identified as being from U.S. service members killed in the 1950-53 Korean War. Mattis said forensic investigators had a lot of information to go on for two cases.

“It’s been good work done. They moved swiftly on a couple where they thought they had a better chance for a number of reasons — where the remains came from, and what background we had, and how much we had to work with,” Mattis said. “And so there’s been, already, some closure for a couple of families that have waited many, many years for this.”

T-38 CRASH: A T-38C Talon aircraft caught fire and its crew ejected during a training flight takeoff yesterday morning at Sheppard Air Force Base in Texas. The base said both crew members were in stable condition and an investigation is underway. According to a release posted on Twitter by the base, one pilot was a German Air Force major who sustained “minor injuries.” The other pilot was a U.S. Air Force first lieutenant on temporary duty assignment from Vance AFB, Okla.

The incident comes after the aging fleet of trainer aircraft suffered three other crashes in less than a year. The Air Force wants to replace the T-38 aircraft, which are reaching the end of their lifespans, and plans to announce a contract for the new T-X program this month.

IRAN ON NOTICE IN IRAQ: The White House is pointing the finger at Iran for recent attacks on the U.S. consulate in Basra, Iraq, as well as the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad. The regime has long had close ties with Shia militias within Iraq and sparked concern about its expanding influence in neighboring Syria and across the region.

“Iran did not act to stop these attacks by its proxies in Iraq, which it has supported with funding, training, and weapons,” press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement. “The United States will hold the regime in Tehran accountable for any attack that results in injury to our personnel or damage to United States government facilities. America will respond swiftly and decisively in defense of American lives.”

NO ‘FEAR’ COMMENT: Mattis declined a chance to deny any of the many colorful anecdotes describing his purported interactions with Trump as depicted in Bob Woodward’s best-seller Fear: Trump in the White House. Mattis begged off any comment, invoking the solemnity of the 17th Sept. 11 anniversary.

“This of all days, this is not a day I’m going to discuss politics,” Mattis said, in response to a question about whether Woodward had checked any quotes with him. Asked about his relationship with Trump, Mattis said, “No problem. It’s been the same all along.”

THE RUNDOWN:

Defense One: Congress Wants a Space-Based Missile Defense System. That’s a Colossally Bad Idea

New York Times: Bombing in Afghanistan Kills at Least 32 at Peaceful Protest

Defense News: Nuclear weapons budget boost in US spending bill

Breaking Defense: Counterterror Costs Since 911: $2.8 TRILLION And Climbing

War on the Rocks: The Python Problem: Reflections on the War on Terror, 17 Years Later

Task and Purpose: Mattis: Afghan Forces Are Increasing Their Efforts To Stop ‘Green On Blue’ Attacks

Air Force Magazine: USAF Looking for Airmen Who Speak Computer

Talk Radio News: Pentagon soon will release report on most dangerous bases for sexual assaults

Roll Call: Cory Gardner Renews Call for Russia to Be Declared Sponsor of Terrorism After Reports on Sonic Attacks

Marine Corps Times: Marine F-35B pilot will land on Royal Navy’s hotshot new aircraft carrier

Foreign Policy: The U.S.-Turkey Relationship Is Worse Off Than You Think

Air Force Times: Air Force may investigate SpaceX CEO for smoking pot, while Canada greenlights its use for troops