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TRUMP’S GUT STRIKES AGAIN: To describe Donald Trump as an unconventional president runs risking serious understatement. Yesterday, with his decision to declare premature victory in Syria and to order all the U.S. troops home posthaste, Trump overruled all of his advisers, blindsided Congress, shocked U.S. allies, and brought joy to our adversaries. The stunning development happened with no formal announcement, no meeting of the National Security Council, and no plan for how to transition to the sustainment mission the Pentagon says it vital to prevent the resurgence of ISIS. Normally, a president making this kind of momentous decision — one that involves the security not just of the U.S. but the world — would address the nation, laying out his rationale, and explaining the way forward. It would come after consultations and debate with lawmakers and other members of the 70-nation coalition who have joined the U.S. in fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Instead, we got two tweets from Trump. One said simply, “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency,” and came in the middle of a Twitter rant about the treatment of the Trump Foundation. It was followed in the day by a one-minute video tweet, in which the president spoke of the heartbreak of writing letters to the families of fallen troops, and said that those American heroes are looking down from heaven in approval of his decision. “We won, and that way we want it, and that’s the way they want it,” he said pointing to the sky. REPUBLICAN REVULSION: The president’s precipitous move triggered so much immediate condemnation it’s hard to know who put it most strongly. A possibility, though, would be Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, a combat veteran, a member the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a major in the Air National Guard. “I mean, I’m speechless today. I have tried to process this, what led to this,” Kinzinger told Jake Tapper on CNN, as he showed Tapper a bracelet he wears on his right wrist. “I have worn this since March. It’s a buddy of mine that was killed in Iraq, Andreas O’Keeffe. He was killed this year fighting ISIS.” O’Keefe who was among seven service members who died in a helicopter crash March 16. Kinzinger was baffled by Trump’s claim of victory over ISIS. “To see the president wake up today and say we have defeated them when we know that’s not true,” Kinzinger said. “I mean, nobody would argue that we have defeated them. That’s not only going to hamper our current operation, it’s going to double or triple the ranks of ISIS. Because, when we leave, they’re going to say, ‘Look, we just defeated the United States without many casualties.’ This makes no sense to me. I cannot put anything into words about why this makes any sense.” ‘THAT’S HIS PREROGATIVE’: While the president took no questions yesterday, the White House did later in the day provide a second-tier “senior administration official” to answer reporter questions in a 20-minute conference call, under the condition the official not be identified. Normally this kind backgrounder is offered to flesh out details of policy that has already been explained on the record, but in this case, it was the only explanation offered, and it was short on details. One reporter asked, “If the president’s not going to listen to his advisers, why have advisers?” The official pushed back on the idea that anyone should have been surprised, arguing Trump’s statements on Syria have been “100 percent consistent from the campaign through his announcement today.” The official also disputed the idea that anyone within the administration was caught unaware. “It was the president’s decision to make, and he made it,” she said. “I think the issue here is that the president has made a decision,” she said “He gets to do that. That’s his prerogative.” (Cue the Britney Spears.) SENATE LEADERS BLINDSIDED: Count Republican Senate leaders among those caught off guard morning by Trump’s Syria withdrawal. “I have no idea what’s going on,” Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., the Foreign Relations Committee chairman, said before a later briefing by Vice President Mike Pence. The Senate Armed Services Committee was also not notified before the decision. “I did not know, and I think I should have been [notified],” said Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., the Armed Services chairman. “I believe that they should have notified probably all of Congress but certainly our committee.” Inhofe said he was concerned about Kurdish allies in Syria but did not even have enough information to weigh in on the withdrawal. “I don’t know what they’ve done. but this is chaos. I can only imagine how it’s playing in Syria.” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said. “To say they [ISIS] are defeated is an overstatement and fake news,” he said later on the floor of the Senate. ‘A DANGEROUS DECISION’: As Republicans fumed about being out of the loop, Senate Democrats unloaded on the president over Syria. “I think it is a dangerous decision. It will leave a lot of those who fought for us in the lurch, it doesn’t give us any leverage in Syria for which we have interests, and once again it is an example of actions without a plan,” Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., the ranking member on the Foreign Relations Committee. Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., the Armed Services ranking member, said the sudden announcement signals an administration in disarray. “Just because President Trump tweets that he has defeated ISIS doesn’t make us safer, especially when the reality is very different on the ground. The president continues to disregard the advice of his military, diplomatic, and intelligence personnel who have consistently warned against the action the president seems poised to take,” he said in a statement. Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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MATTIS GETS ANOTHER S#*! SANDWICH: Trump’s decision to cut short the Syria mission dumps another mess in the lap of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, whose advice was again ignored. Mattis, the last general standing from Trump’s original team, once again has to take a policy he deeply opposes, put the best face on it, and try to manage it in a way that will minimize the significant downside risk. You could see Mattis’ fingerprints on the Pentagon statement issued yesterday by chief spokesperson Dana White. “The Coalition has liberated the ISIS-held territory, but the campaign against ISIS is not over. We have started the process of returning U.S. troops home from Syria as we transition to the next phase of the campaign. For force protection and operational security reasons we will not provide further details. We will continue working with our partners and allies to defeat ISIS wherever it operates.” Translation: We will try to continue to fight ISIS and train security forces, while gradually drawing down the force. We’ve seen this movie before. When ordered to end joint exercises with South Korea, Mattis managed to come up with a way to continue the drills disguised as “routine training.” When ordered to send active-duty troops to the southern border, Mattis managed to fend off efforts to have them engage in police work and kept them limited to support tasks. When ordered to stage a wasteful grand military parade, Mattis found a way to scale it down, until the idea died under its own weight. Time after time Mattis has been in a position where he is trying to protect the interests of the troops and the nation, without defying a president, who no longer seeks or takes his advice. It raises the question again of how long Mattis will continue to serve. ‘AN OBAMA-LIKE MISTAKE’: Sen. Graham was among the first to link Trump’s decision to President Barack Obama’s withdrawal of troops from Iraq in 2011. “If these media reports are true, it will be an Obama-like mistake made by the Trump administration. While American patience in confronting radical Islam may wane, the radical Islamists’ passion to kill Americans and our allies never wavers,” Graham said in a statement. Trump’s abrupt decision risks repeating he previously called a major blunder by President Obama — the premature withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 that led to ISIS’ rise in the first place. During the 2016 campaign, Trump labeled Obama, “the founder of ISIS,” telling radio show host Hugh Hewitt, “The way he got out of Iraq was — that was the founding of ISIS, okay?” Then last year as president, Trump made the same argument in a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. “We should never, ever have left,” Trump said. “A vacuum was created.” ISIS IS NOT DEFEATED: At last report, a small number of ISIS holdouts, presumably including their elusive leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, are holding on to a tiny sliver of land in eastern Syria, where they are surrounded by U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. “We’ve largely cleared the physical manifestation of ISIS inside of Syria. That doesn’t mean there aren’t still thousands of fighters in Syria,” Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Washington Post forum two weeks ago. An analysis by the Institute for the Study of War says ISIS is on the verge of a second resurgence. “On its current trajectory, ISIS could regain sufficient strength to mount a renewed insurgency that once again threatens to overmatch local security forces in both Iraq and Syria,” the report concludes. “ISIS is waging an effective campaign to reestablish durable support zones while raising funds and rebuilding command-and-control over its remnant forces.” It notes that a Pentagon report in August said ISIS retains nearly 30,000 fighters across Iraq and Syria and is “more capable” than Al-Qaeda in Iraq — ISIS’s predecessor — at its peak in 2006-2007. CUI BONO: … is the Latin phrase for “who benefits.” In this case, the major beneficiaries are ISIS, Russia, Iran, Syrian President Bashar Assad, and Turkey. Russia, which intervened in Syria in 2015 to prop up Assad, and turned the tide of battle in his favor, is already cheering the move. “A milestone story which might evolve from this decision is a real prospect for a political solution,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said yesterday. WHAT ABOUT AT TANF? The results of the decision could be felt promptly at a strategically-significant border crossing in southeastern Syria, the Russian diplomat suggested. U.S. forces have maintained a camp called At Tanf, which helped prevent Iranian ground forces from establishing a “land bridge” through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Russia has threatened to attack this base in recent months, alleging that the United States is sheltering terrorists. Will the U.S. now abandon the base, giving an early Christmas present to Vladimir Putin? QUID PRO QUO? Many analysts noted the timing of the decision, the same day the State Department cleared the potential sale of Patriot missile batteries to Turkey, and just days after President Trump spoke by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “I’m certain it was a factor … The president has proven himself to be a transactional leader. He looks for short-term wins,” said retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, now a CNN analyst. “He seems to be very happy any time we can make arms sales to other governments. Other governments will quickly say we’ll buy this equipment if you do this or that. I’m sure that was part of the negotiation with Turkey,” he said on CNN. But the White House denies that Trump discussed the pull-out with Erdogan. “The president had made his own decision. It was not something he discussed with President Erdogan,” the unnamed briefer told reporters yesterday. “He has informed President Erdogan of his decision as a neighbor of Syria, obviously. It’s going to be an important issue for Turkey. But this was not a topic of discussion.” PING PONG PUBLIC AFFAIRS: The White House yesterday could provide no guidance for a timetable for U.S. withdrawal or what level of military support would be given to continuing the fight against ISIS in Syria, without the presence of U.S. boots on the ground. “It’s not that I’m not telling you, it’s that I don’t know, quite frankly,” the official said during yesterday’s unsatisfying conference call. The White House referred reporters to the Pentagon, which in turn referred reporters to the White House, a reflection of the fact that once again the Pentagon was playing catch-up after being sandbagged by another unexpected presidential tweet. STATE EXODUS: All U.S. State Department personnel in Syria are reportedly being removed in the next 24 hours. The personnel is being evacuated following the Pentagon’s announcement that the U.S. has started to withdraw troops from Syria, Reuters reports. Approximately 2,000 U.S. troops have been in Syria as part of Operation Roundup, which is intended to wipe out ISIS. ONE MORE THING: The Senate last night passed by voice vote a short-term spending bill that would keep the federal government open through Feb. 8. The House is expected to take it up today, followed by President Trump’s signature — though it includes no money for his long-promised wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. The short-term continuing resolution would avert a partial shutdown that would otherwise take effect at the end of the tomorrow. THE RUNDOWN AP: Trump pulling out of Syria. Might Afghanistan be next? AP: N. Korea says it won’t denuclearize unless US removes threat Defense One: Trump Just Screwed Up the One Thing He Did Better Than Obama Military Times: Defying critics, Trump again suggests military troops should build the border wall New York Times: China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Plan in Pakistan Takes a Military Turn Politico: Space policy wonk prepares to take her seat in Congress Defense News: Japan seeks drones, subs, F-35 jets as part of $243 billion defense-spending plan Navy Times: Attorney: Navy officer accused of rape was engaged in ‘bizarre role playing sexual game’ with junior officer Military.com: Simultaneous Drills, Miscommunication Caused Chaos, Weapons Discharge at Base |
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