FILLING A DESPERATE NEED: The pleas from Ukraine for long-range multiple-launch rocket systems to counter Russian overmatch in the Donbas have grown increasingly desperate over the last several weeks. The Ukrainians said they needed longer range artillery yesterday.
Ukrainian forces were taking heavy casualties on the front lines, and could not hit back at the Russian guns, which were out of range of U.S.-supplied howitzers. “The most difficult situation is in the east of Ukraine and southern Donetsk and Luhansk,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with Newsmax. “We’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action.”
In a video address over the weekend, Zelensky said the Russians have “concentrated maximum artillery, maximum reserves in Donbas. There are missile strikes and aircraft attacks — everything.”
“That’s unsustainable,” said retired Army Maj. Gen. James “Spider” Marks, who is now a CNN military analyst. “This is an inflection point for the Ukrainians. What the Ukrainians can achieve over the next two to three months is what Ukraine is going to look like geographically over the course of the next two to three years.”
STILL THREE WEEKS AWAY: Anticipating that President Joe Biden would approve the Lockheed Martin High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems or “HIMARS” for Ukraine, the Pentagon prepositioned four of the advanced systems in Europe, along with guided munitions that have a range limited to just over 40 miles, so they could be rapidly delivered and training could start immediately.
“These aren’t turnkey — these are systems that the Ukrainians need to be trained on. We think that’ll take around three weeks,” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, at a Pentagon briefing yesterday. “And they need to know not just how to use the systems but of course how to maintain the system … It’ll be a number of weeks until that training is complete.”
Kahl pushed back against the idea the critical weapons were late to the fight. “We’re not seeing the Ukrainian defenses buckle. They’re hanging on, but it is a grinding fight,” said Kahl. “We believe that these additional capabilities will arrive in a time frame that’s relevant and allow the Ukrainians to very precisely target the types of things they need for the current fight.”
“I wish we could have gotten it there sooner,” said former NATO commander retired Gen. Wes Clark on CNN. “I think it would have been better if we’d had them like a month ago, six weeks ago.”
“But honestly, the Ukrainians have done a much better job of holding in Donbas than we could have imagined,” said Clark. “The trouble is they’ve taken very heavy losses there.”
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION APPROVES $700M IN NEW MILITARY AID, INCLUDING HIMARS
TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE? “While the Biden administration is right to deliver this weapons system, as has typified its arms support to Ukraine during this war, this provision is long overdue,” writes Tom Rogan, foreign policy/national security writer for the Washington Examiner.
“As I noted in early April, the utility of multiple launch rocket systems for Ukraine’s defense was always apparent. At the time, however, national security adviser Jake Sullivan claimed these systems weren’t being provided to Ukraine — not so as to avoid aggravating Russia but because the U.S. ‘doesn’t have a version that could be effectively integrated into the fight,’” notes Rogan, pointing out that yesterday’s announcement shows Sullivan’s claim was inaccurate.
“The systems that we’re providing, the HIMARS, and the guided munitions that go along with them, will allow Ukraine to range any target they need for that fight inside Ukrainian territory,” said Kahl.
“What’s frustrating about this delay and distraction is that it was clear from early April that the HIMARS would have been exceptionally well suited to the defensive campaign Ukraine is now waging in its east,” argues Rogan. “Had the Biden administration acted two months ago, Ukraine may have been able to avoid some of the predictable tactical retreats it is now conducting.”
READ MORE: WHY US MOBILE ROCKET ARTILLERY SYSTEMS ARE A GAME CHANGER FOR UKRAINE
WHAT ELSE IS IN THE $700M PACKAGE: In addition to the four HIMARS launchers, the U.S. is sending other critically needed systems, including five counter-artillery radars capable of locating the precise point of origin of enemy fires so they can be targeted within minutes.
The $700-million package also includes another 1,000 Javelin tank-busting missiles along with 6,000 other anti-armor weapons, as well as 15,000 more rounds for the 155 mm artillery systems already on the battlefield.
Rounding out the package:
- 2 air surveillance radars
- 50 command launch units
- 4 MI-17 helicopters
- 15 tactical vehicles
- spare parts and equipment
With this latest shipment, the U.S. has provided $5.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration, with $4.6 billion of that committed since the Russian invasion began Feb. 24.
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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg begins his second full day in Washington at the White House, meeting with President Joe Biden and national security adviser Jake Sullivan in the Roosevelt Room at 11:15 a.m.
The discussion will center on the “preparations for the NATO Summit in Madrid at the end of June and the strength of our trans-Atlantic alliance,” according to the White House. No doubt one of the top items on the agenda will be the desire of Finland and Sweden to join NATO and Turkey’s threat to block their admission.
At a State Department press conference yesterday, Stoltenberg said Russian President Vladimir Putin made a “strategic mistake” invading Ukraine. “President Putin wanted less NATO. He’s getting more NATO, more troops and more NATO members.”
At 2:30 p.m., Stoltenberg is scheduled to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon.
THE TURKEY FACTOR: Both Stoltenberg and Secretary of State Antony Blinken continue to express optimism that Turkey’s objections to Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO — outlined by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an article in the Economist — will be overcome.
Stoltenberg said he is personally involved in trying to resolve the dispute, keeping in close contact with all the parties. “We have met with them, and I am going to convene a meeting in a few days with senior officials and then follow-up to ensure that we make progress on the applications of Finland and Sweden to join NATO,” he said. “My intention is to have this in place before the NATO summit. At the same time, I know that to make progress we need 30 allies to agree.”
“This is not the first time in NATO that some allies express concerns that there are some differences and disagreements. But, we have a known track record also to be able to overcome those differences and agree on how to move forward.”
“There is a strong consensus within NATO broadly for the rapid ascension of Sweden and Finland to the alliance,” said Blinken. “I remain very confident that that will happen, that we’re going to move forward. As I’ve said before, this is a process, and in that process, if allies have concerns, they raise them. And then we deal with them.”
IN UKRAINE, EVERYTHING’S DEFENSIVE: At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, caused some momentary confusion when he said the Ukrainians have given the U.S. assurances that the HIMARS long-range artillery rocket system would be used for “defensive purposes only.”
“Does that mean they cannot use the HIMARS to go on the offense and expel the Russians from territory they hold?” asked one reporter.
“Ukraine is defending their territory. Anything they’re doing on the territory of Ukraine is defensive in this context. The formal assurances that they will not use these systems to target Russian territory,” Kahl clarified. “The Russians are on the offensive. If the Ukrainians are pushing them back from Ukrainian territory. So, for example, the Ukrainians made a recent push into Kherson. If they push back along the line of contact in the Donbas, we would consider that defensive.”
“The Ukrainians have given us assurances that they will not use these systems against targets on Russian territory,” said Blinken at the State Department. “There is a strong trust bond between Ukraine and the United States.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden administration approves $700M in new military aid, including HIMARS
Washington Examiner: Why US mobile rocket artillery systems are a game changer for Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Ukrainians shelter under chemical plant that may hold dangerous material: Report
Washington Examiner: Iran could have multiple nukes within years, foreign policy think tank says
Washington Examiner: Ramstein Air Base cancels drag show at library
Washington Examiner: Biden having non-judges approve asylum claims means rushed approvals, GOP says
Washington Examiner: Ukraine one win away from World Cup after defeating Scotland
Washington Post: Street battles in Severodonetsk; Kyiv frustrates Kremlin’s grip elsewhere
New York Times: Barrages in East Take Heavy Toll On Ukraine Army
Reuters: U.S. Plans To Sell Armed Drones To Ukraine In Coming Days -Sources
Military.com: Laydown Of U.S. Troops In Europe Will Depend On How Ukraine War Ends
Defense One: NATO’s Next Strategic Concept Will Add China’s Threats, US Ambassador Says
Stars and Stripes: Baltic Sea Exercise May Serve As Prime Showcase For Prospective NATO Members Finland, Sweden
Breaking Defense: U.S. Prepares For RIMPAC Exercise Against Backdrop Of Russian, Chinese Tensions
Air Force Magazine: Kendall: Air Force Has an ‘Affordability Problem’ As It Tries to Meet Capability Gap
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Flying Hours Decline Again After Brief Recovery
Air Force Magazine: F-16s Not on the Table for Ukraine, Says NATO Ambassador
Breaking Defense: Fear Grows that US Military Satellite Communications Are Falling Behind: Study
Reuters: Air Force to Get Largest Share of Germany’s 100 Billion Euro Defense Bulk-up
CNN: Biden Celebrates First Female Commandant Of The U.S. Coast Guard: ‘It’s About Time’
Politico: How a Breach at Andrews Led to the Seizure of a Reporter’s Phone
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Contemplating The Unthinkable In Ukraine: Trading Land For Peace
Calendar
THURSDAY | JUNE 2
7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” discussion with Gen. Paul Funk, commander of the Army Training and Doctrine Command https://www.ausa.org/events/ausa-coffee-series
8 a.m. 1700 Tysons Blvd., McLean, Va — Potomac Officers Club 2022 Navy Summit on “critical modernization and fleet readiness initiatives, with Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/2022-annual-navy-forum
9 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Revitalizing the U.S.-Philippines Alliance,” with former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea retired Adm. Harry Harris; Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute; Satu Limaye, vice president of the East-West Center; Brian Harding, senior expert on Southeast Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace; and Henry Howard, director of the U.S.-Philippines Society https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-report-launch
9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “How the Space Force is planning to address the threats of today and tomorrow,” with Space Force Lt. Gen. William Liquori, deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, requirements, and analysis https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/schriever-spacepower-forum
11 a.m. CANCELED — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg “Due to unforeseen circumstances with the Secretary General’s schedule, this event has been canceled. We hope to reschedule in the future.” https://www.eventbrite.com/e/a-conversation-with-jens-stoltenberg
11:30 a.m. State Department, Benjamin Franklin Room — Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks on the “2021 Report on International Religious Freedom.” Livestream at http://www.state.gov
2 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies virtual discussion with National Cyber Director Chris Inglis; retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director of the FDD’s Center on Cyber Technology Innovation and former executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission (CSC); and Samantha Ravich, chair of the FDD’s Center on Cyber Technology Innovation and former CSC commissioner https://www.fdd.org/events/2022/06/02/strengthening-americas-cyber-resiliency
2:30 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to the Pentagon.
3 p.m. — Virtual Pacific Climate Forum of the Americas with U.S. Southern Commander Gen. Laura Richardson https://iamericas.org/pacific-climate-forum
FRIDAY | JUNE 3
9 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Preventing Mass Atrocities in Afghanistan: How the U.S. and International Community Can Protect Hazaras and other Vulnerable Afghans,” with State Department Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights Rina Amiri; Farkhondeh Akbari, postdoctoral fellow at the Monash University Gender, Peace and Security Center; Lauren Baillie, senior program officer for atrocity prevention at USIP; Shukria Dellawar, legislative and policy manager for the prevention of violent conflict at the Friends Committee on National Legislation; Naomi Kikoler, director of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Center for the Prevention of Genocide https://www.usip.org/events/preventing-mass-atrocities-afghanistan
TUESDAY | JUNE 7
TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for Singapore and Bangkok, Thailand, Singapore Austin will take part in the International Institute for Strategic Studies 19th “Shangri-La Dialogue.” https://www.defense.gov/News/Advisories
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 8
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar: “Washington’s War: Lessons in Leadership for a Modern Army,” with retired Lt. Gen. James Dubik, AUSA senior fellow https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/G-James-Dubik
TUESDAY | JULY 19
Aspen Meadows Resort, Colorado — Aspen Strategy Group three-day (19-22) Aspen Security Forum with Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown; former Defense Secretary Robert Gates; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander U.S. Special Operations Command; Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va.; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Kay Bailey Hutchison, former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and others. https://www.aspensecurityforum.org
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“President Putin wanted less NATO. He’s getting more NATO, more troops and more NATO members. The decisions by Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership are historic and they will strengthen our alliance.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at the State Department Wednesday.
