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THEY’RE NOT BUYING IT: A bipartisan juggernaut of senators are increasingly vocal in their outrage about what they call intentionally misleading intelligence reports over the role Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. They’re now pushing bills that would force President Trump to curb arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and publicly hold the crown prince accountable. The leader of the Senate insurrection is Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of six co-sponsors of a resolution that would condemn Crown Prince Salman for contributing to the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, the blockade of Qatar, the jailing of political dissidents within Saudi Arabia, the use of force to intimidate rivals, and the “abhorrent and unjustified killing” of Khashoggi. “This resolution — without equivocation — definitively states that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia was complicit in the murder of Mr. Khashoggi and has been a wrecking ball to the region jeopardizing our national security interests on multiple fronts,” the South Carolina Republican said in a statement yesterday. “It will be up to Saudi Arabia as to how to deal with this matter. But it is up to the United States to firmly stand for who we are and what we believe.” The resolution, co-sponsored by Republicans Marco Rubio, Fla., and Todd Young, Ind., and Democrats Dianne Feinstein, Calif., Ed Markey, Mass., and Chris Coons, Del., would declare the Senate has “a high level of confidence” that Crown Prince Salman “was in control of the security forces” at the time of murder and was “complicit in the murder” of Khashoggi. WITHDRAWING US MILITARY SUPPORT: A separate measure, which could be debated in the Senate as early as next week, would force the withdrawal of U.S. support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, in a challenge to Trump’s war-making powers. Again, the measure has bipartisan support, co-sponsored by Sens. Mike Lee, R-Utah, Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Chris Murphy, D-Conn. “My guess is it’s got more than 51,” Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., said, referring to a majority vote in the Senate that would be needed to proceed to the measure. “My sense is the motion to proceed will be successful.” DIRECT VS CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE: Two versions of U.S. intelligence provided to the Senate by the Trump administration are fueling some of the passion on Capitol Hill. The first, by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, stated there was “no direct evidence” linking the crown prince to the murder. Then, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis insisted there was “no smoking gun.” Only after Lindsey Graham demanded to hear directly from CIA Director Gina Haspel did a small group of senators learn the truth — that in the CIA’s view there is little doubt of the crown prince’s direct role. “Essentially what [Pompeo’s] saying is we don’t have fingerprints on the gun, but the CIA is coming along and saying we can place the crown prince in the room, deeply involved in the events that took place,” said Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley, Ore., on CNN last night. “So, it’s like strong circumstantial information versus fingerprints. But in a court of law, when you are in the room at the time of murder, you’re involved. And in this case, the crown prince would have been in charge of it.” THE NATURE OF INTELLIGENCE: The truth is that an intelligence assessment is rarely a slam dunk. Intelligence by its very nature is an educated judgment and can be subject to confirmation bias, which in turn can lead its politicization. If the president wants to act, he can deem it to be persuasive. In 2003, President George W. Bush went to war in Iraq over weapons of mass destruction that did not exist, based at least in part on intelligence reports. If the president opposes the action, as in the case of President Trump not wanting to damage relations with Saudi Arabia, the intelligence can be deemed inconclusive — as in his recent “Maybe he did it, maybe he didn’t,” statement. It’s a judgment call, but not a close one, in this case, Graham said. “I would really question somebody’s judgment if they couldn’t figure this out,” he said. IS THIS MATTIS’ ‘POWELL MOMENT’? In making his statement that “we have no smoking gun that the crown prince was involved,” Mattis put his reputation on the line as an honest broker. Graham, who insists he still has “great respect” for both Pompeo and Mattis, is willing to give both the benefit of the doubt. And that what they said was technically true, in a narrow sense, even if totally misleading. “Since I have such respect for them, I’m going to assume that they’re being good soldiers, and when they look at the analysis, they’re being technical in their statement,” Graham said. “I would imagine, if they were in a Democratic administration, I would be all over them for being in the pocket of Saudi Arabia.” But Graham said it’s clear they are coloring the intelligence to please their boss. “I think the reason they don’t draw the conclusion that he’s complicit is because the administration doesn’t want to go down that road, not because there’s not evidence to suggest he’s complicit.” In a 2016 interview, Former Secretary State Colin Powell admitted that his 2003 speech to the United Nations overstating U.S. intelligence that Iraq was hiding WMDs was a “blot” on his record, which still haunts him to this day. That proved another case of policymakers’ judgment being clouded by what they wanted to believe, rather than not conceding was not what it seemed. PEACE TALKS BEGIN: Meanwhile UN-sponsored peace talks begin today in Sweden, with representatives from the Saudi-backed Yemeni government meeting face-to-face with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels for the first time since 2016. The initial goal is to broker some sort of ceasefire in the four-year war, which can alleviate the suffering in what is now considered the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. It’s estimated that half the country is on the verge of famine and a cholera outbreak is claiming the lives of over 100 children a day, due to lack of clean water. Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY, INHOFE’S ADDRESS: This morning at 8:30 Sen. Jim Inhofe delivers what is billed as his first public speech as Senate Armed Services Committee chairman. The Oklahoma Republican will speak to the National Defense University at Fort McNair about his priorities for the panel in 2019, and the need to maintain higher levels of defense spending. Inhofe met with President Trump on Tuesday to urge him against slashing the Pentagon budget by 5 percent next year. SASC AFGHANISTAN BRIEFING: The Senate Armed Services Committee will then, at 10:30 a.m., receive a closed-door briefing on the security situation in Afghanistan. Senators will hear from a deputy assistant defense secretary, the deputy general of U.S. Central Command, and the Joint Chiefs director of intelligence. The briefing comes just two days after Lt. Gen. Frank McKenzie, the nominee to head the U.S. Central Command, testified to the Armed Services Committee that the conflict is a stalemate with no end date and that Afghan forces are still unable to secure the country on their own. PAKISTAN’S IS THE KEY: Meanwhile U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad was in Islamabad yesterday, seeking Pakistan’s help in bringing the Afghanistan war to a close. “I do believe that any solution in Afghanistan is going to require the assistance of Pakistan,” McKenzie testified at his Tuesday confirmation hearing. “It is in Pakistan’s long-term interests to have a government in Afghanistan that is stable — that they can do business with.” But when pressed McKenzie said so far Pakistan has been all talk and no action. “Pakistan has not shown indications, by and large, over the last few years of being a serious partner in this regard,” McKenzie said praising the efforts of Khalilzad. “It will be hard to reach a settlement without some form of assistance in Pakistan.” MID-AIR COLLISION: A aerial refueling accident off the coast of Japan has left two Marines pilots shaken and five missing. The accident involved KC-130 Hercules and an F/A-18 Hornet, which apparently collided about 200 miles off of the coast of Japan in routine training. The two marines recovered apparently ejected from the F/A-18. The five-member crew of the KC-130 is still missing. DEADLY CRASH BLAMED ON MAINTENANCE MISTAKE: Military investigators say a deadly crash of U.S. Marine Corps KC-130T over a Mississippi soybean field last year was caused by a propeller blade that sliced through the main body of the aircraft. The crash, which killed 15 marines and one sailor, occurred during scheduled travel for pre-deployment training. According to the investigation, a propeller on the aircraft didn’t receive necessary maintenance during its scheduled overhaul at Warner Robins Air Logistics Complex in 2011. “The procedures that were in place in 2011, those procedures if properly done, should have detected that corrosion in 2011,” Brig. Gen. John Kubinec, the current commander of Warner Robins Air Logistics Complex, told CBS News. “The corrosion should have been detected. Why it wasn’t, we don’t know.” The Marine Corps plans to post redacted investigation report along with and recreated mishap animation later today at this link. NORTH KOREA’S MISSILE SITES SPOTTED: North Korea is keeping long-range missile site active and is erecting a new, previously unidentified facility several miles away, according to a new report. According to satellite images examined by researchers at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, the Yeongjeo-dong missile base has been active and “in the past year North Korea has significantly expanded a nearby facility that appears to be another missile base.” BORDER DRILL: Federal law enforcement and military troops are bracing for another potential storming of the border, this time in Arizona. Active-duty troops joined Customs and Border Protection officers at southern Arizona’s Port of Nogales and DeConcini Crossing yesterday for what was described as “large-scale operational readiness exercise,” or a major training session. “The exercises were training in preparation to deal with the potential of large crowds and assaultive behavior by caravan members. They included tactical operations with the use of role players and inert smoke to simulate real-world environments. This training will allow our officers to respond tactically should a situation arise,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in a statement. GET OVER IT: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says European allies need to come to terms with the U.S. push to reform international institutions, even as many say European nations are skeptical. “There’s a long history of countries just refusing to acknowledge that things have changed and it’s time to restructure,” Pompeo told reporters Tuesday while returning from the 2018 NATO Foreign Minister summit in Brussels. “Change is hard everywhere.” THE STORY OF BUSH’S FATEFUL FLIGHT: At the memorial service for President George H.W. Bush yesterday presidential historian Jon Meacham told the moving story of young Lt. j.g. Bush’s harrowing flight off an aircraft carrier in the Pacific during World War II. Here’s the account: “Shortly after dawn on Saturday, September 2nd, 1944, Lieutenant Junior Grade George Herbert Walker Bush, joined by two crewmates, took off from the USS San Jacinto to attack a radio tower on Chichi Jima. As they approached the target, the air was heavy with flak. The plane was hit, smoke filled the cockpit, flames raced across the wings. “My God,” Lieutenant Bush thought, “this thing’s gonna go down.” Yet he kept the plane in its 35-degree dive, dropped his bombs, and then roared off out to sea, telling his crewmates to hit the silk. Following protocol, Lieutenant Bush turned the plane, so they could bail out. Only then did Bush parachute from the cockpit. The wind propels him backward and he gashed his head on the tail of the plane as he flew through the sky. He plunged deep into the ocean, bobbed to the surface, and flopped onto a tiny raft, his head bleeding, his eyes burning, his mouth and throat raw from salt water. The future 41st president of the United States was alone. Sensing that his men had not made it, he was overcome. He felt the weight of responsibility as a nearly physical burden, and he wept. Then, at four minutes shy of noon, a submarine emerged to rescue the downed pilot. George Herbert Walker Bush was safe. The story, his story and ours, would go on, by God’s grace. The Navy has put together an animation that also tells the story, which is worth checking out. And it turns Bush heard Meacham’s eulogy before he died. The Bush biographer told NBC’s “Today” Show he read the speech to the former president before his death on Friday at 94. Bush’s reported reaction: “That’s a lot about me, Jon,” Bush said. MARINES PUNISHED FOR SKY PENIS: The two Marines who drew a penis-shaped flight pattern with their aircraft over California in October have been disciplined for the incident. But the administrative punishment will allow the Marines, who had been temporarily grounded, to continue flying and remain part of their aircraft wing at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, spokesman Maj. Josef Patterson said. “Two Marine Corps aviators were administratively disciplined following the completion of an investigation into the facts and circumstances surrounding an Oct. 23 irregular flight pattern that resulted in an obscene image,” Patterson said. “The aviators retained their wings and will continue service to their country as valued members of 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing.” THE RUNDOWN CNN: New satellite images reveal activity at unidentified North Korean missile base Washington Post: Easing of U.S.-Pakistan tensions may offer hope for Afghanistan peace effort Military Times: Investigation blames Air Force and Navy for systemic failures in fatal Marine Corps C-130 crash that killed 16 Washington Post: He’s a U.S. soldier deployed on the southern border — and an unlawful immigrant Wall Street Journal: U.S. Troops, Raiding Afghan Villages, Fight With Little Hope for Military Victory CNN: US makes preparations to sail warship into Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions Military Times: The Pentagon is reviewing the special operations community after a series of high-profile scandals Business Insider: How to send US troops care packages they really want this holiday season Defense News: US Navy’s littoral combat ship program inches closer to fielding new capabilities Military Times: President Trump to attend Army-Navy game Army Times: An Army Ranger dog was killed while saving soldiers’ lives in Afghanistan |
CalendarTHURSDAY | DEC. 6 8:30 a.m. Fort McNair. Sen. Jim Inhofe Address to Students at the National Defense University About Resourcing National Defense. 9 a.m. 1615 H St. NW. Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson and Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Michael Griffin speak at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s space summit, “LAUNCH: Industry Taking Off. U.S. Chamber of Commerce 9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Maritime Security Dialogue with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer. csis.org 9:30 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. News Conference: Iran on Trial for Terrorism. press.org 10:30 a.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Closed Briefing on the Security Situation in Afghanistan with Colin Jackson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia; Lt. Gen. Thomas Bergeson, Deputy Commander of U.S. Central Command; and Maj. Gen. Michael Groen, Director for Intelligence for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. armed-services.senate.gov 12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. NPC Headliners Luncheon with Adm. Karl Schultz, Commandant of the Coast Guard. press.org 12:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. DMGS-Kennan Distinguished Speaker Series: A Conversation with Bellingcat’s Aric Toler on Open-Source Reporting. wilsoncenter.org 4 p.m. 1301 K St. NW. Transformers: Defense with Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Steven Walker, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Director. washingtonpost.com FRIDAY | DEC. 7 9 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Saudi Arabia’s War in Yemen with Rep. Ro Khanna. cato.org MONDAY | DEC. 10 7:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. SLAAD Winter Quarterly Meeting. ndia.org 10:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Bridging the Data-Policy Gap on Counterterrorism: A Discussion of the Sixth Global Terrorism Index. usip.org TUESDAY | DEC. 11 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Future of the U.S. Aircraft Carrier: Fearsome Warship or Expensive Target? heritage.org 11 a.m. 46870 Tate Rd. NDIA Patuxent River Speaker Series with Todd Balazs, Digital Integration Officer for Naval Air Systems Command. ndia.org 4:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A National Security Crisis Lecture with Sen. Jon Kyl. heritage.org WEDNESDAY | DEC. 12 8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Rep. Adam Smith. 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Subcommittee Hearing on Navy and Marine Corps Readiness with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer; Gen. Robert Neller, Marine Corps Commandant; and Vice Adm. Bill Moran, Vice Chief Of Naval Operations. armed-services.senate.gov 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Subcommittee Hearing on Implications of China’s Presence and Investment in Africa. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Association of the United States Army Job Fair. ausa.org 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How should the transatlantic alliance counter Russian aggression? brookings.edu 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Why Do Russia and the US Need Each Other: Foreign Policy and National Identity. wilsoncenter.org 4 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Our Uncertain Nuclear Future: How Do We Proceed if Treaties are Trashed? stimson.org THURSDAY | DEC. 13 8:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. Hypersonics Senior Executive Series with Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan and Under Secretary Michael Griffin. ndia.org 9:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How Can U.S. Foreign Policymakers Do Better for the Middle Class? carnegieendowment.org 5 p.m. Book Launch of “Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict” with Author Jacob Shapiro. csis.org 5 p.m. 700 F St. NW. Cocktails and Conversation – The Human Machine Team: The Analyst of Today and Tomorrow. defenseone.com |
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