‘WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?’ In an at-times contentious hearing on Capitol Hill, members of the House Armed Services Committee, both Democrats and Republicans, expressed frustration that senior Pentagon officials had no answers to their questions about the cost, timing, and rationale for abruptly pulling 12,000 troops out of Germany and relocating the headquarters of the U.S. European and Africa Commands.
At one point, an exasperated Chairman Rep. Adam Smith exclaimed, “What the hell is going on, so we can exercise our oversight?” Smith, who raised immediate concerns about the plan when it was announced in July, said the realignment, which will bring more than 6,000 troops back to the United States, “did not seem to be tied to any particular requirement” and that “the numbers seemed to be artificial.”
James Anderson, the Pentagon’s acting undersecretary of defense for policy, testified details that have not yet been worked out but assured the committee that the plan was “wholly in line with the NDS [National Defense Strategy],” echoing language used by Defense Secretary Mark Esper in July, and said the Pentagon will “come up with a plan going forward that will enhance our posture.”
Questioned about whether the plan was in fact driven by Esper’s review of European force structure or the result of pressure from the White House, Anderson said he was not privy to those conversations.
“Then why are you here?” said Rep. Bill Keating, a Massachusetts Democrat.
‘LIPSTICK ON A PIG’: Lame-duck Republican Rep. Mac Thornberry of Texas accused the Pentagon of “trying to put lipstick on the pig” and blamed “a couple staffers in the White House” who “wanted to sell the president on an absolute troop cap for Germany.”
“My concern is the underlying strength and unity of the [NATO] alliance has not been a foremost consideration,” said Thornberry, the committee’s ranking member.
The issue is just one of the thorny questions to be resolved when the House and Senate negotiators take up the FY 2021 National Defense Authorization Act next month, with the outcome likely affected by the outcome of the November election.
The House version of the NDAA includes language that would bar the administration from lowering troop levels below current levels.
TRUMP SIGNS CR: Taking it right up to the deadline, the Senate last night passed a stopgap spending measure known as a Continuing Resolution to keep the government funded until Dec. 11.
The measure passed the House last week and was approved by the Senate 84-10. President Trump has signed the bill, averting a government shutdown, as the new fiscal year starts today.
The bill restricts spending to FY 2020 levels and was required because the Senate has not passed any of 12 annual spending bills. If Trump wins the election, the spending bills will likely be dealt with in a lame-duck session in December. If Joe Biden wins, the bills could be kicked into next year when the next administration and a new Congress would deal with the leftover business.
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: Judge Amy Coney Barrett, President Trump’s nominee for associate justice of the Supreme Court, makes the rounds on Capitol Hill, meeting with senators.
ALSO TODAY: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley presides over a change of command and retirement ceremony as Army Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley relinquishes the directorship of the Defense Intelligence Agency to Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier.
WASHINGTON EXAMINER EXCLUSIVE: ‘A SYMBOL OF FREEDOM’: Washington Examiner defense reporter Abraham Mahshie is just back from Lithuania, where he observed NATO’s front-line efforts to deter Russia and snagged an exclusive sit-down interview with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who was forced into exile in Lithuania after Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory over her in last month’s disputed presidential elections.
Belarus’s capital, Minsk, has been rocked by anti-Lukashenko demonstrations for seven weeks, inspired by the 38-year-old political novice and stay-at-home mom who ran for president after her husband was jailed.
It is widely believed that Tikhanovskaya was the true winner, and her backers back home are hoping international pressure will force new elections that oust the longtime dictator. “For the first time for 26 years, we woke up. We can’t lose this chance,” Tikhanovskaya told Mahshie in a rare personal interview with an American journalist.
“All these victims will be in vain if we don’t win,” she said. “I call myself a symbol of freedom, a symbol of a democratic country, a national elected leader.”
Read more at the Washington Examiner, and look for Mahshie’s extended interview in the forthcoming issue of the Washington Examiner magazine.
RUSSIAN TROOPS IN BELARUS: The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, which has been monitoring Russian troop movements in and out of Belarus, reports that two Russian battalion tactical groups that were taking part in military drills have returned to home garrisons in Russia, but that different Russian units would be returning to Belarus for upcoming “Unbreakable Brotherhood” exercises planned for Oct. 12.
In the exclusive Washington Examiner interview, Tikhanovskaya questioned Lukashenko’s cozy relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Our demonstrations are absolutely peaceful. We are not threatening anybody,” she told Mahshie. “Why do you, Mr. Lukashenko, allow yourself to invite foreign troops for solving this problem?”
“It’s the method of threatening, like, ‘We invited troops, be careful,’” she said. “There are troops here, and Russia helps us. He shows that Russia supports him. But what happens in reality between them? Nobody knows.” See a video of the exchange here.
GOP CHINA REPORT WARNS OF GROWING THREAT: A new report drafted by 15 House Republicans has labeled China the “greatest national and economic security challenge of this generation.” The China Task Force Report is based on interviews with 130 experts, including policy experts, business leaders, and members of Congress.
“China presents a unique challenge to America’s interests and security. Confronting China will take a whole of government approach. We cannot rely on the military or on our diplomats alone; Congress also has an important role,” said Rep. Mac Thornberry. “That is why the China Task Force report is so important. It lays out a practical action plan that Congress must follow if our country is to deal with China successfully, maintain our competitive edge, and keep America safe.”
A summary of the report’s recommendations can be found here.
DEMOCRATS AGREE: The GOP report came the same day a new bipartisan report from the House Intelligence Committee concluded that China “has used the past two decades to transform itself into a nation potentially capable of supplanting the United States as the leading power in the world.”
The report, written by Democrats, is the product of nearly a two-year investigation. You can find a 37-page summary of the report here.
WHO CARES ABOUT THE FLARE-UP BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN? Former supreme allied commander of NATO retired Adm. James Stavridis does. In a Bloomberg opinion column, Stavridis argues the flare-up of a decades-old conflict has wider implications for the West.
“What may seem to many Westerners a minor clash in a remote corner of the world actually has significant implications for regional security, energy markets and the ambitions of two problematic strongmen: Vladimir Putin of Russia and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey,” he writes. “What is particularly dangerous in this latest flare-up is that Turkey and Russia are strongly backing different horses. The Turks dislike the Armenians and support their fellow Muslims in Azerbaijan [while] Russia has a formal defense treaty and warm military-to-military relations with Armenia.”
“The chances of a peaceful settlement seem bleak,” he concludes, noting neither side is willing to compromise. “At the moment, such compromises seem far less likely than a small war with potentially large consequences.”
Related: How and why Turkey is fueling the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, opinion by Tom Rogan.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US troops in Poland reassure NATO’s Baltic States as Russia looms
Washington Examiner: US revises defense deal to blunt China’s influence in Greece
Washington Examiner: Russia invents CIA plot to kill Catholics and destabilize Belarus
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu warns Iran will soon have enough enriched uranium for two nuclear weapons during UN address
Washington Examiner: Exclusive: ‘I call myself a symbol of freedom’: Belarusian leader in exile motivates protesters
Washington Times: U.S. bracing for Chinese takeover of region amid military buildup
Reuters: U.S. Targets Only One Percent Of Chinese Students Over Security: White House Official
Time: Trump vs. Biden: Facing Off on Taming a ‘Rising China’
Washington Post: As Kim wooed Trump with ‘love letters,’ he kept building his nuclear capability, intelligence shows
McClatchy: National Guard could be tasked to protect voting. So far, few governors have asked
Washington Examiner: Marine F-35 crashes in California after mishap with refueling plane
Air Force Magazine: Space Force Will Eventually Put Troops in Orbit, Ops Boss Says
Bloomberg: Lockheed, Pentagon Agree on $71 Million Credit Over F-35 Parts
Navy Times: Report: CNO ‘fell ill,’ had heart surgery last month
Defense News: For The Fire-Ravaged Ship Bonhomme Richard, The U.S. Navy Has No Good Options
AP: Trump falsely blames Biden for vet deaths
Time: ‘It’s Frightening All Around.’ Former Intelligence Officials Warn Trump’s Debt Is a National Security Threat
Washington Post: Over jury’s regrets, judge sentences Army veteran to lengthy term in prison
Calendar
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 1
9 a.m. — The Army’s Fires Center of Excellence Fort Sill Virtual Fires Conference, with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville delivering remarks. https://sill-www.army.mil/fires-conference
9 a.m. — IDEEA Inc. virtual ComDef Conference: “Ensuring a Resilient and Agile Defense Industrial Base,” with Alison Petchell, minister-counselor for defense materiel at the Embassy of Australia; Rutha Astravas, continental materiel cooperation director at the Canadian National Defence Department; Huw Walters, economic security and prosperity director at the UK Defence Ministry; and Assistant NATO Secretary General for Defence Investment Camille Grand. https://www.ideea.com/comdef20/
9:15 a.m. SD-562, Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness and Management Support hearing on “Supply Chain Integrity,” with Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual rollout of its latest policy paper “Understanding the Promise of Skyborg and Low-Cost Attritable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” by Mark Gunzinger, director, future concepts and capability assessments, and Lukas Autenried, senior analyst at the Mitchell Institute, with discussion by, Gunzinger; retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula; Col. Stryker Haley, deputy division chief, Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability Futures and Concepts Division; and Douglas Meador, deputy program manager, Air Force Research Laboratory Low Cost Attritable Aircraft Technology program. Video available afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation
10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar: “Standoff or Turning Point: Will the Belarus Protests Trigger a Russian Onslaught?” with Bianna Golodryga, senior global affairs analyst at CNN; Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at CEIP; Dmitri Trenin, director of the CEIP Moscow Center; and former Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, president of CEIP. https://carnegieendowment.org/2020
11 a.m. — Arms Control Association webinar: “The Future of the Iran Nuclear Deal and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” with Ellie Gerenmyah, deputy director of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Middle East and North Africa Program; Emad Kiyaei, director of the Middle East Treaty Organization; and Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at ACA. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. Pentagon Briefing Room 2D972 — Defense Suicide Prevention Office Director Dr. Karin Orvis and Deputy Director Travis Bartholomew brief reporters on the Department of Defense’s Annual Suicide Report. https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/
12 p.m. — WorldBoston virtual event: “The Evolution of the U.S. Space Force,” with Space Force Lt. Gen. William Liquori, deputy chief of space operations for strategy, plans, programs, requirements, and analysis. https://www.worldboston.org/
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Regional Expansionism: Iran’s Militias in the Levant,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Levant and Special Envoy for Syria Joel Rayburn; Michael Herzog, fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Ariane Tabatabai, Middle East fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Alliance for Securing Democracy; Hamdi Malik, Middle East analyst at Al-Monitor; and Navvar Saban, nonresident researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/regional-expansionism
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Department of Defense’s Service Industrial Base,” with David Berteau, president and CEO of the Professional Services Council; Eric Chewning, partner at McKinsey & Co.; and Tina Jonas, nonresident senior adviser in the CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
3 p.m. — Defense One webcast: “State of the Space Force,” with U.S. Space Force Vice Commander Lt. Gen. David Thompson. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/state-of-defense
3 p.m. — Council on Foreign Relations virtual U.S. Foreign Policy Forum, focusing on challenges awaiting the winner of the 2020 election, with former U.S. Representative to the African Union Reuben Brigety II; former Homeland Security Council Chair Frances Fragos Townsend, vice chairman, general counsel and chief administrative officer at MacAndrews & Forbes Inc.; and Richard Haass, CFR president. https://www.cfr.org/event/election
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 2
9:15 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Disinformed Democracy: The Past, Present, and Future of Information Warfare,” with former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, author of Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World. https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual symposium: “Special Operations Forces and Great Power Competition,” with Acting Assistant Defense Secretary for Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict Ezra Cohen; Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla.; and Air Force Command Sgt. Gregory Smith, senior enlisted leader at the U.S. Special Operations Command; Assistant Defense Secretary for Acquisition Kevin Fahey; Jim Smith, acquisition executive at the U.S. Special Operations Command’s Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Center; and former Principal Deputy Defense Undersecretary for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Alan Estevez, national security and logistics executive at Deloitte; Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition James “Hondo” Geurts; and Ramon “CZ” Colon-Lopez, senior enlisted adviser to the Joint Chiefs chairman. https://www.ndia.org/events/2020/10/2/2020-virtual-solic
MONDAY | OCTOBER 5
9 a.m. — NVIDIA’s GPU Technology Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the future of work, with retired Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan, the first director of the Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, and FCC Chairman Ajit Pai, among others. https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/gtc
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 6
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with his counterparts from Japan, Australia, and India in Tokyo to discuss promoting a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne, and India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. https://www.state.gov/
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I call myself a symbol of freedom, a symbol of a democratic country, a national elected leader.”
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, in an exclusive interview with the Washington Examiner.
