CHINA SEEKS PARITY AND SUPERIORITY OVER US: The just-released annual Pentagon report on China’s growing military power and future ambitions concludes that in its stated goal of creating a “world class military” over the next three decades, Beijing has already achieved parity with, or even exceeded, the United States in several military modernization areas, including shipbuilding, land-based missiles, and air defenses.
China, the world’s most populous nation (1.39 billion), has the biggest army and navy (350 ships) in the world, and its air force is the third-largest (2,000 combat aircraft) but is rapidly catching up to the U.S.
ON ITS WAY TO A TRIAD: The U.S. estimates that China has about 200 nuclear warheads, plenty enough to deter a nuclear attack, but now seeks to expand its arsenal so that, like the U.S., it would have “launch-on-warning” abilities matching U.S. nuclear doctrine.
“China is pursuing a ‘nuclear triad’ with the development of a nuclear capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) and improving its ground and sea-based nuclear capabilities,” the report says, projecting that China’s warhead stockpile will double over the next decade as a new generation of land-based ICBMs will bring the number of nuclear warheads capable of threatening the United States to 200 within five years.
“China’s nuclear forces will significantly evolve over the next decade as it modernizes, diversifies, and increases the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms,” the report says.
NEED FOR NEW ARMS CONTROL: At the Pentagon, Chad Sbragia, deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, said Beijing is “implementing the most rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal in its history” and said the ability to double the stockpile “not only demonstrates a move away from their historical minimum deterrence posture but places them in a position where they can readily grow their force beyond this number.”
“The United States believes it is time for China to participate in nuclear arms control. While China has praised agreements such as the New START and INF, it has also sought to avoid participating in the arms control itself,” Sbragia told a small group of reporters. While China has declined U.S. overtures to take part in the current arms talks with Russia, the U.S. is willing to wait, he said.
“The United States is willing to make progress with Russia while waiting on China to recognize its interests in behaving like a great power and a responsible nuclear weapons state by pursuing negotiations in good faith.
POMPEO SAYS ‘AMERICA SLEPT WHILE CHINA GREW’: In an interview with Lou Dobbs on Fox last night, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and increasingly combative rhetoric are the direct result of the Trump administration standing up to Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“For the first time, there’s an administration, a president in the United States who isn’t just going to turn the other cheek, who’s prepared to take on this challenge,” Pompeo told Dobbs.
“It’s 40 years and coming. Frankly, America slept while China grew. You talked about their missile systems, their military, all the things that have grown,” he said. “President Trump’s taking each of these on in a serious way, and I think you see the rhetoric from the Chinese Communist Party ratcheting up because they are feeling the pressure that’s being put on them by this administration.”
Pompeo is scheduled to hold a press conference this morning at the State Department at 10 a.m.
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper is back in Hawaii, where he is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks at ceremonies commemorating the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II.
It was on this date in 1945 that representatives from the Japanese government and Allied forces assembled aboard the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay to sign the Japanese Instrument of Surrender. Esper will deliver his remarks from the fantail of the historic ship, now moored in Pearl Harbor.
The Pentagon will livestream the event, which begins with an aerial parade of World War II warbirds, at 2 p.m. Washington time. Esper speaks at 3 p.m.
Meanwhile, President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks at 2 p.m. from the deck of the battleship USS North Carolina in Wilmington, North Carolina.
RUSSIA’S RECKLESS PROVOCATIONS: Russia did not take too well to NATO’s “Allied Sky” exercise last Friday, in which six U.S. nuclear-capable B-52 Stratofortress bombers flew over all 30 NATO nations in Europe and North America.
In response, two Russian Su-27 Flanker pilots intercepted one of the American B-52s while it was in the Black Sea region over international waters.
“The Russian pilots flew in an unsafe and unprofessional manner while crossing within 100 feet of the nose of the B-52 multiple times at co-altitude and while in afterburner causing turbulence and restricting the B-52’s ability to maneuver,” the Air Force Global Strike Command said in a statement and accompanying video.
KEEP IT UP: “The aggressive actions of the Russian pilots suggest the NATO unity and military capability demonstrated by the bomber exercise may have rattled leaders and military planners in Moscow,” write Bradley Bowman and Maj. Shane Praiswater in an analysis for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“In order to deter additional aggression from Moscow, the U.S. military should continue to conduct such aviation exercises and seek to expand the number of [bomber task force] bases,” they write. “In addition, NATO must also work to strengthen its ground deterrence capability in the Black Sea region. These efforts can help make clear to Moscow that it cannot use military force to accomplish its political objectives at an acceptable cost.”
UNARMED ICBM LAUNCH: Overnight, the Air Force Global Strike Command conducted another routine test of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.
“The test demonstrates that the United States’ nuclear deterrent is safe, secure, reliable and effective to deter twenty-first century threats and reassure our allies. Test launches are not a response or reaction to world events or regional tensions,” a statement said. “The ICBM’s reentry vehicle traveled approximately 4,200 miles to the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. These test launches verify the accuracy and reliability of the ICBM weapon system, providing valuable data to ensure a continued safe, secure and effective nuclear deterrent.”
LEADERSHIP SHAKEUP AT FORT HOOD: Maj. Gen. John Richardson takes over as acting senior commander of Fort Hood, Texas, on Wednesday in what the Army says was a previously scheduled change in leadership.
Richardson takes over from Maj. Gen. Scott Efflandt, who will remain at Fort Hood instead of becoming commander of the Army’s 1st Armored Division, as previously announced.
The moves come as the Army is investigating the climate and culture of the Texas base following a series of deaths and disappearances, including the recent death of Spc. Vanessa Guillen.
The Army says that the probe will be elevated to “a more complete and comprehensive investigation that will delve into all activities and levels of leadership” and will be headed by Gen. John Murray, commanding general of Army Futures Command, one of the Army’s most senior commanders.
Among the deaths was that of Sgt. Elder Fernandes, who was found hanging from a tree in what authorities described as an apparent suicide. According to his family, Fernandes had filed a sexual abuse claim and told his family he was harassed and bullied.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: China seeks nuclear weapons and bases ‘to support offensive operations’ against US
Military Times: What War With China Could Look Like
Washington Examiner: ‘Not a vassal state’: Philippine leader Duterte backs Chinese companies targeted by US
AP: Trump visits Kenosha, calls violence ‘domestic terrorism’
Washington Examiner: Kenosha mayor lauds ‘extremely helpful’ National Guard in quelling violence
Washington Examiner: DHS acting chief Chad Wolf threatens to replace Portland police with federal agents
Washington Examiner: Trump attacks Drudge Report for promoting ‘fake news’ report on ‘mini-stroke’
CNN: Trump and his doctor say mini-stroke did not prompt President’s trip to Walter Reed last year
Defense News: Two Hypersonic Weapons Just Completed A New Milestone In Development
USA Today: Where Are The Black Officers? U.S. Army Shows Diversity In Its Ranks But Few Promotions To The Top
Bloomberg: Turkey Slams U.S. Decision To Ease Its Arms Embargo On Cyprus
New York Times: Turkey Announces Arrest of a Major Islamic State Militant
Wall Street Journal: Israel, U.A.E. Pursue Economic Ties In Wake Of U.S.-Brokered Breakthrough
Reuters: Owners Of Iranian Fuel Seized By U.S. Assert Rights To Cargoes
Air Force Magazine: Raymond to Swear in New Space Force Members at AFA’s Virtual Air, Space & Cyber
Marine Corps Times: Marines Lay Out Plans For Gender Integrating Boot Camp At The Platoon Level
Breaking Defense: Army Wants Industry Input For Reliable Exoskeleton (Not Iron Man, Yet!)
Task & Purpose: On A Marine Corps Base In Japan, The Mold Will Continue Until Morale Improves
USNI News: Aerial Refueling For E-2Ds Will Expand Reach Of Carrier Strike Groups
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 2
10 a.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute Nuclear Deterrence Forum with Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy Rob Soofer. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
10:30 a.m. — The SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. webinar: “A Conversation Fuat Oktay, vice president of Turkey,” with Burhanettin Duran, Kadir Ustun, Kilic Kanat of the SETA Foundation. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — Foundation for Middle East Peace webinar: “The Implications of the Israel-United Arab Emirates (UAE) Deal,” with Annelle Sheline, research fellow for the Middle East at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; James Zogby, managing director of Zogby Research Services; Khaled Elgindy, director of the Middle East Institute’s Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs; and Lara Friedman, president of FMEP. https://fmep.org/event/fmep-mei-webinar
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Toward a More Proliferated World?” with Rebecca Friedman Lissner, assistant professor at the U.S. Naval War College Strategic and Operational Research Department; Vipin Narang associate professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Security Studies Program; Ilan Goldenberg, director and senior fellow at the CNAS Middle East Security Program; and Eric Brewer, deputy director and senior fellow at the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues. https://www.csis.org/events/online
11:50 a.m. — The Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Counter-UAS Summit, beginning with Air National Guard Maj. Casey Robbins, air defense officer for nuclear and homeland defense operations at the Joint Staff’s Homeland Defense Division. https://www.idga.org/events-counteruas-usa
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army Noon Report virtual discussion of racial issues and diversity in the Army with Lt. Gen. Darryl Williams, superintendent of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point; Maj. Gen. John Evans, commanding general of Army Cadet Command; Sgt. Maj. Jimmy Sellers, the senior enlisted soldier in the Army G-4, logistics, who most recently was commandant of the U.S. Army Sergeants Major Academy; and Sgt. Maj. Julie Guerra, the senior enlisted soldier in the Army G-2, intelligence, who previously was the command sergeant major of the U.S. Army Cyber School. https://www.bigmarker.com/ausaorg
12 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Addressing Veteran Underemployment,” with retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the Army; and Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
2 p.m. Pearl Harbor, Hawaii — Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Adm. Phil Davidson, Commander of United States Indo-Pacific Command take part in the official 75th World War II Commemoration Ceremony on the fantail of battleship Missouri memorial. https://www.75thwwiicommemoration.org
2:40 p.m. — NASA holds a Space Launch System (SLS) rocket full-scale booster test, followed by a media teleconference with Bruce Tiller, manager of the NASA SLS boosters office; and Charlie Precourt, vice president of propulsion systems at Northrop Grumman. https://www.nasa.gov/nasalive
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 3
2:45 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Europe virtual Space Workshop, with the theme “Cybersecurity in and for Space Operations.” Speakers include 3:05 a.m. — Jamie Shea, strategic studies professor at Exeter University; 3:20 a.m. — Gordon Davis, deputy assistant secretary-general at the NATO Defence Investment Division; 3:35 a.m. — French Brig. Gen. Frederic Pesme, deputy director of the NATO International Military Staff’s Policy and Capabilities Division; 3:50 a.m. — Carine Claeys, special envoy at the European External Action Service Space Task Force; 5:05 a.m. — Pierre Delsaux, deputy director-general of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space; 7 a.m. — Kaitlyn Johnson, associate director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Aerospace Security Project; 8:40 a.m. — Martin Ditter, head of the European Space Agency’s European Space Security and Education Center; and 8:55 a.m. — Air Force Lt. Gen. John Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center. https://eu.eventscloud.com/ehome/afceaeuropeworkshop-space2020/programme/
9 a.m. — United States Institute of Peace webinar: “The Association of Southeast Asian Nations Faces the Future: What to Expect from the 27th ASEAN Regional Forum,” with Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs David Stilwell; former Vietnamese Ambassador to the United States Pham Quang Vinh; Mely Caballero-Anthony, professor of international relations at Nanyang Technological University Singapore; Byron Chong, research associate at the National University of Singapore’s Center on Asia and Globalization; Drew Thompson, visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s School of Public Policy; and Brian Harding, senior expert for Southeast Asia at USIP. https://www.usip.org/events/asean-faces-future
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute webinar: “Iran, Israel and the Changing Geopolitics of the Middle East,” with Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies; Meir Javedanfar, senior research fellow at the Meir Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies; Ksenia Svetlova, senior research analyst at the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policy; and Alex Vatanka, director of the MEI Iran Program. https://www.mei.edu/events
10 a.m. — George Washington University School of International Affairs webinar: “U.S.-Republic of Korea relations and cooperation,” with Republic of Korea Ambassador to the United States Soo Hyuck Lee. https://elliott.gwu.edu/event-calendar
1 p.m. — U.S. Navy Memorial webinar with the Chief of Naval Personnel Vice Adm. John Nowell. https://www.navymemorial.org/new-events
5 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute webinar: “America’s place in the world: How lessons from the past can guide the future of foreign policy,” with Hal Brands, resident scholar, AEI; Francis Gavin, director, Henry Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins University; Kori Schake, Director, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI; Robert Zoellick, senior fellow, Belfer Center, Harvard University. https://www.aei.org/events/webinar-americas-place-in-the-world
7 p.m. — President Trump delivers remarks live at campaign event from Arnold Palmer Regional Airport Latrobe, Pennsylvania.
MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 7
Labor Day — Daily on Defense will not be published as we observe the federal holiday.
MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 14
9 a.m. — Day one of the Air Force Association 2020 Virtual Air, Space & Cyber Conference, with Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett; Gen. Timothy Ray, commander, Air Force Global Strike Command; Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces; Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa. Full agenda at: https://www.afa.org/events/calendar/2020-09-14/air-space-cyber-conference
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 15
9 a.m. — Day two of the Air Force Association 2020 Virtual Air, Space & Cyber Conference, with Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond; Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics; and others. Full agenda at: https://www.afa.org/events/calendar/2020-09-14/air-space-cyber-conference
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We do believe that over the next decade, that China is likely to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile in the course of implementing the most rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal in its history, China’s history.”
Chad Sbragia, deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, in briefing reporters on the Pentagon’s latest China Military Power report.
