SALVAGE OPERATION: With Turkey’s five-day ceasefire in Syria due to expire at 3 p.m. today, the Pentagon is busy working on options to continue the fight against ISIS while preventing terrorists or the Bashar Assad regime from regaining control over oil resources.
The short term plan is to leave a small number of U.S. troops, roughly 200, to help secure oil fields in the north, while repositioning the bulk of American forces across the border in Iraq, where they would at least for a while continue to help the Syrian Kurds battle ISIS. During the four year war against the ISIS caliphate, the U.S.-led coalition routinely bombed oil facilities to cut off ISIS’ main source of funding.
“The focus is to deny access, specifically revenue, to ISIS and any other groups that may want to seek that revenue to enable their own malign activities,” Defense Secretary Mark Esper said at a news conference in Kabul yesterday. “There has been a discussion about possibly doing it. There’s been no decision with regard to numbers or anything like that.”
IT’S ABOUT OPTIONS: Esper is trying to come up with adjustments to the U.S. strategy that can accommodate the sudden shift on the ground resulting from the Turkey invasion, and bring the Pentagon’s message in line with the president’s.
“We believe we defeated the physical caliphate of ISIS in March, but nowhere in there was that we would fight a longstanding NATO ally and, in defense of the Kurds, to enable the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish state, which is the aim of many Kurds,” Esper said. “The military’s job is to prepare options, and then present them to the president and let him decide.”
IT’S ABOUT THE OIL: In a rambling discourse in the White House Cabinet room yesterday, President Trump insisted there is no need to keep many U.S. troops in Syria, but he likes the idea of tapping into the oil revenues. Referring to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Trump recalled, “I always said, ‘If you’re going in, keep the oil.’ Same thing here: Keep the oil. We want to keep the oil.
“And we’ll work something out with the Kurds so that they have some money, they have some cash flow. Maybe we’ll get one of our big oil companies to go in and do it properly. But they’ll have some cash flow, which they basically don’t have right now,” Trump said.
TROOPS COMING HOME: Trump said that other than a small number of troops near the border with Jordan and Iraq, and the forces securing oil fields, there’s no need for U.S. troops to stay. “Well, we don’t think it’s going to be necessary. I don’t want to leave troops there,” Trump said. “We’ve secured the oil. Other than that, there’s no reason for it … We never agreed to protect the Kurds for the rest of their lives.”
While the Pentagon plans to continue the counter-ISIS effort from across the border in Iraq, Trump said that won’t last long. “Well, they’re going to be sent initially to different parts … and then ultimately we’re bringing them home,” he said. “I got elected on bringing our soldiers back home.”
PLAY IT WHERE IT LIES: Over the weekend Trump discussed his plans for Syrian oil facilities with Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has been pushing a bipartisan sanctions bill to punish Turkey for its assault on America’s Kurdish allies.
On Fox, Graham pronounced himself wowed by the president’s genius. “President Trump is thinking outside the box. I was so impressed with his thinking about the oil,” he told Fox host Maria Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures.
“Not only are we going to deny the oil fields falling into Iranian hands,” Graham said. “I believe we’re on the verge of a joint venture between us and the Syrian Democratic Forces, who helped destroy ISIS and keep them destroyed, to modernize the oil fields and make sure they get the revenue, not the Iranians, not Assad.”
“Play the ball as you lie is a concept in golf, Graham said. “The bottom line here is, you have got to play the ball where it lies … A plan to keep ISIS down and out forever, and a chance to keep the oil fields in the hands of our allies, not our enemies, would be a hell of an outcome, and I think that’s now possible.”
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: Just back from another overseas trip, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to deliver remarks at the Heritage Foundation’s Annual President’s Club meeting at 9:00 a.m. here in Washington.
In an interview on CNBC yesterday, Pompeo defended the deal worked out with Turkey to facilitate the retreat of Kurdish forces in the face of Turkey’s invasion.
“The work that Vice President Pence and the State Department team did to convince the Turkish Government to stop their movement, to cease this incursion – I’m fully convinced that that work saved lives, not only the lives of the SDF fighters, but the ethnic minorities in the region,” Pompeo said. “We have got real commitments to protect ethnic minorities throughout the regions from the Turks in the course of negotiating that statement. I think the work that we did saved lives.”
ERDOGAN MEETS PUTIN: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin today in the resort town of Sochi to discuss the Syrian situation.
As he departed Ankara for the meeting, Erdogan said Kurdish YPG fighters are continuing to withdraw from the border region, but did not indicate if the pause in the Turksih military operation would continue after the temporary ceasefire ends tonight Turkey time.
IT’S ABOUT THE REFUGEES: Erdogan is expected to seek Russian help with his plan to resettle up to 2 million refugees there, his spokesman told Associated Press on Saturday.
In this week’s Washington Examiner magazine I write about how the failed “security mechanism” did nothing to solve Erdoğan’s other big problem: what to do about millions of Syrian refugees who have fled the fighting over the years.
Since 2011, more than 3 million refugees, or “guests” as Turkey calls them, have escaped danger and death in Syria and primarily assimilated into Turkish society, despite enjoying only temporary protected status. About 100,000 live in camps near the border.
Erdogan’s political opponents began to use rising anti-immigrant fervor against him, notably in June’s municipal election in Istanbul, where Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party lost to the opposition Republican People’s Party.
STEALTH DRAWDOWN IN AFGHANISTAN: At yesterday’s news conference in Kabul, U.S. Afghanistan commander Gen. Scott Miller casually mentioned that, oh by the way, the U.S. has been quietly drawing down its forces in Afghanistan, even without a peace deal with the Taliban.
“Just so you’re aware, as we work in Afghanistan with our partners, we’re always looking to optimize the force,” Miller said standing alongside Secretary Esper. “And unbeknownst to the public, as part of our optimization over the last year, at least 2,000, we’ve reduced our authorized strength by 2,000 here.”
The U.S. had about 14,000 troops in Afghanistan, split between the NATO Resolute Support mission to train, advise and assist the Afghan military and the separate U.S. counterterrorism mission dubbed Freedom’s Sentinel. Presumably the number is about 12,000 now. Esper has revealed that the U.S. believes it only needs about 8,600 troops in Afghanistan, so it’s likely as more troops rotate out some won’t be replaced.
“Our mission in Afghanistan has not changed. We continue to conduct counterterrorism operations while supporting the development of the ANDSF. (Afghan National Defense and Security Forces), Esper said. “The United States remains fully committed to helping Afghans create a peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan, and to supporting the Afghans’ efforts, led by the government, towards peace. A negotiated political settlement among Afghans is the best path to achieving this outcome. “
FLY ON THE WALL: After winning a battle with Pentagon censors, Guy Snodgrass, the former chief speechwriter for Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, has published an excerpt from his tell-all book, Holding the Line: Inside Trump’s Pentagon With Secretary Mattis on Politico.
Unlike some recent books which rely on anonymous sources, Snodgrass, a retired Navy commander, had a front row seat and provides an eyewitness account of the now infamous first briefing of President Trump at Pentagon in 2017 — the same July 20 meeting after which Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was reported to have referred to Trump as “a fucking moron.”
“Many times during Tillerson’s tenure, reporters would claim that he thought his boss was an idiot — and each time Tillerson would deny it publicly,” Snodgrass writes. “But there was no doubt among most observers in the room that day that Tillerson was thinking exactly that.”
Snodgrass describes Mattis as respectful but frustrated as “Trump veered from topic to topic — Syria, Mexico, a recent Washington Post story he didn’t like — like a squirrel caught in traffic, dashing one way and then another.” Trump began the meeting expressing his admiration of France’s Bastille Day parade in Paris, and ordering up an ever better “Victory Parade” for Washington.
“Mattis did not think Trump was a raving lunatic, as some were trying to portray the president. In fact, Mattis had made a point of noting to us that America elected Trump for a reason. That the president had tremendous political skills, a sharp intuition and a formidable business career. Those qualities deserved respect.” Snodgrass writes. “But still Trump could tax Mattis’ patience, and the president’s view of the world was both simplistic and troublesome.”
The Rundown
Reuters: Iraq says U.S. forces withdrawing from Syria have no approval to stay
Washington Examiner: Former counter-ISIS czar: ‘It is going to get worse’ in Syria
Washington Examiner: WATCH: Rotten fruit, rocks thrown at US troops as they pull out of Syria
New York Times: ISIS Rejoices as U.S. Withdraws From Syria
Wall Street Journal: America’s Syria Exit Improves Iran’s Fortunes
AP: Afghan official: Taliban storm checkpoint, kill 15 policemen
Virginian Pilot: USS Abraham Lincoln’s Deployment Extended While USS Harry S. Truman Undergoes Repairs
The Telegraph: Aboard A U.S. Aircraft Carrier Combating Beijing’s Growing Aggression In The South China Sea
Breaking Defense: UK, U.S. Enter New Era: ‘Unprecedented’ Carrier-Sharing Plan
USNI News: Retired U.S. Coast Guard Cutters Arrive in Odessa to Join Ukrainian Navy
Reuters: South Korea says scrambled fighters after Russian warplanes violated air defense zone
Military.com: Russian Bombers To Land In South Africa During Unprecedented Deployment
Washington Examiner: Cartels used M249 light machine gun and other US weapons to free El Chapo’s son
Navy Times: NCIS: Drug Ring’s Tentacles Reached At Least 48 Service Members
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 22
7:45 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. — Day one of the Precision Strike Association’s symposium “Flipping the Game: Imposing Cost Through Multi-Domain Precision Strike,” with Rep. Vicky Hartzler, R-Mo., delivers remarks on “Congressional Perspective: Meeting the Threat” https://www.precisionstrike.org/events
8 a.m. 100 Westgate Circle, Annapolis — National Defense Industrial Association Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Warfighting Requirements and Capabilities Vice Adm. James Kilby; Deputy Marine Corps Commandant for Combat Development and Integration Lt. Gen. Eric Smith; Rep. Jack Bergman, R-Mich.; Eric Labs, senior analyst for naval weapons and forces at the Congressional Budget Office; and Ron O’Rourke, naval analyst at the Congressional Research Service. https://www.ndia.org/events
8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Foreign Aid and International Affairs Spending,” with House Appropriations Chairwoman Nita Lowey, D-N.Y.; and House Appropriations ranking member Kay Granger, R-Texas. http://www.csis.org
9 a.m. 901 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo addresses Heritage Foundation President’s Club meeting on the Trump administration’s approach to the foreign policy challenges currently facing the U.S. https://www.heritage.org/events
3 p.m. 1030 15th St.N.W. — The Atlantic Council discussion “More in the Med: Revitalizing NATO’s Southern Strategy for an Era of Great Power Competition,’ with retired Marine Corps Gen. James Jones., former supreme NATO commander; Italian Ambassador to the U.S. Armando Varicchio; Alexander Vershbow, fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative; and Lauren Speranza, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
6 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies book discussion on “Guest House for Young Widows: Among the Women of ISIS,” focusing on women who “joined, endured, and, in some cases, escaped life in the Islamic State,” with author Azadeh Moaveni, senior gender analyst at the International Crisis Group. http://www.sais-jhu.edu
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 23
6 a.m. edt/11 a.m. cet NATO Headquarters, Brussels. — Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg press conference in advance of two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers. Streamed live at https://www.nato.int
8 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. — Day two of the Precision Strike Association’s symposium, “Flipping the Game: Imposing Cost Through Multi-Domain Precision Strike,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Richard Clark, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, delivering keynote address on “The Emerging Threat and a Modernized Nuclear Triad” https://www.precisionstrike.org/events
8 a.m. 100 Westgate Circle, Annapolis — Day two of the National Defense Industrial Association Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with Deputy Marine Corps Commandant for Installations and Logistics Lt. Gen. Charles Chiarotti. https://www.ndia.org/events
9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion on “The Navy in an Era of Great Power Competition,” with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. http://www.brookings.edu
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn. — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing “The Betrayal of our Syrian Kurdish Partners: How Will American Foreign Policy and Leadership Recover?” with testimony from James Jeffrey, State Department special representative for Syria engagement and special envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS; and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Joey Hood. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings
11 a.m. 300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — U.S. Central Commander Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie and UAE Ambassador to the U.S. Yousef Al Otaiba deliver keynote remarks to the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference. https://ncusar.org/auspc
11:15 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arl. — National Defense Industrial Association Defense Leaders Forum, with Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Stephen Wilson. https://www.ndia.org/events
2 p.m. 2154 Rayburn. — House Oversight and Reform National Security Subcommittee hearing on “The Trump Administration’s Syria Policy: Perspectives from the Field.” http://oversight.house.gov
2:30 p.m. Dirksen. — Senate Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing on United States policy and assistance in Syria. http://appropriations.senate.gov
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 24
All day. NATO Headquarters, Brussels — Meeting of NATO’s North Atlantic Council at the level of Defense Ministers. Possible Mark Esper news conference https://www.nato.int
8 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. — Day three of the Precision Strike Association’s symposium “Flipping the Game: Imposing Cost Through Multi-Domain Precision Strike,” with Air Force Maj. Gen. David Krumm, director of global power programs in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics. https://www.precisionstrike.org/events
8 a.m. 100 Westgate Circle, Annapolis — Day three of the National Defense Industrial Association Expeditionary Warfare Conference with Rear Adm. Steve Parode, director of the Navy’s Warfare Integration Directorate. https://www.ndia.org/events/2019/10/22/24th-ewc
8:30 a.m. 529 14th Street, N.W. — House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith delivers remarks on the future of U.S. nuclear policy, at a briefing sponsored by the Ploughshares Fund. Also taking part: Kelly Magsamen, vice president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress; Mieke Eoyang, vice president of Third Way’s National Security Program; and Kennette Benedict, board member at the Ploughshares Fund. https://www.ploughshares.org/issues
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen. — Senate Armed Services Committee committee hearing on the nomination of Navy Vice Adm. Charles Richard to be commander of the U.S. Strategic Command. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion on “Recent Business Reform and Opportunities for Trade and Investment in Afghanistan,” with Acting Afghanistan Minister of Industry and Commerce Ajmal Ahmady; and Terry Miller, director of the Heritage Center for International Trade and Economics http://www.heritage.org
FRIDAY I OCTOBER 25
8:30 a.m. 2300 Wilson Blvd., Arl. — Military Reporters & Editors association annual conference, with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy; Undersecretary of the Navy Thomas Modly; Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Robert Burke; Virginia Rep. Rob Wittman; and others Full agenda at https://militaryreporters.org/2019
9:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E Heritage Foundation discussion “Treating the Pathologies of Victory: Hardening the Nation for Strategic Competition,” with retired Air Force Col. Tom Ehrhard; and Dakota Wood, senior research fellow for defense programs at the Heritage Foundation. http://www.heritage.org
12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. N.W. — Council on Foreign Relations discussion on “U.S.-Turkey Relations: The Shifting Nature of Two NATO Allies,” with Henri Barkey, chair in international relations at Lehigh University; Naz Durakoglu, senior policy adviser in the Office of Senator Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.; and Gonul Tol, founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies. http://www.cfr.org
2 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation lecture on “Honoring America’s Veterans Through Improved Care and Services,” with Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie; and Kim Holmes, executive vice president of Heritage Foundation http://www.heritage.org
TUESDAY I OCTOBER 29
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Dana S. Deasy to be CIO of the Defense Department; and Robert John Sander to be general counsel of the Department of the Navy. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Many times during Tillerson’s tenure, reporters would claim that he thought his boss was an idiot — and each time Tillerson would deny it publicly. But there was no doubt among most observers in the room that day that Tillerson was thinking exactly that.”
Guy Snodgrass, the former chief speechwriter for Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, writing about President Trump’s first Pentagon briefing in his book, Holding the Line: Inside Trump’s Pentagon With Secretary Mattis.
