DINNER WITH KIM: President Trump is meeting one-on-one with North Korean President Kim Jong Un at Hanoi’s Metropole Hotel this morning (tonight Vietnam time) before sitting down for a three-plus-three dinner. On the U.S. side, Trump will be flanked by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney. KILLING KIM WITH KINDNESS: It remains very unclear what will come out out of this second meeting between the two leaders, but Trump continues to employ a tactic that others think works on him: flattery. “We have a very big dinner tonight, as you know, and meetings with North Korea and Chairman Kim. And we both felt very good about having this very important summit in Vietnam because you really are an example as to what can happen with good thinking,” Trump said, sitting across from Vietnamese President Nguyen Phu Trong, before dinner with Kim. Trump plans to hold up Vietnam’s economic success as an example of what North Korea’s future could hold, if Kim forsakes his nuclear arsenal. “Vietnam is thriving like few places on earth. North Korea would be the same, and very quickly, if it would denuclearize,” Trump said on Twitter. “The potential is AWESOME, a great opportunity, like almost none other in history, for my friend Kim Jong Un. We will know fairly soon – Very Interesting!” CRAZY LIKE A FOX? Trump’s instincts tell him that the consensus of his intelligence community is wrong but also right. Wrong that Kim will never give up his nuclear weapons, but right about how Kim worries that without his nukes, he can’t be sure of his grip on power. Trump’s effusive, and at times excessive, praise of the brutal dictator is aimed at overcoming Kim’s suspicion that the United States is secretly plotting his overthrow. Many have noted this is what former president Richard Nixon dubbed the “madman theory” of foreign policy, aimed at convincing adversaries he was irrational and volatile and therefore not someone who should be tested. Trump himself talked about it two weeks ago in the Rose Garden. “And it was a very tough dialogue at the beginning. Fire and fury. Total annihilation. ‘My button is bigger than yours’ and ‘My button works.’ Remember that? You don’t remember that. And people said, ‘Trump is crazy.’ And you know what it ended up being? A very good relationship. I like him a lot and he likes me a lot.” Trump said. “Nobody else would have done that. The Obama administration couldn’t have done it. Number one, they probably wouldn’t have done it. And number two, they didn’t have the capability to do it.” TRUMP NEEDS TO DELIVER: Much is riding on the outcome of the this summit, writes Bruce Klingner, a Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation. “The second summit must not repeat the mistakes of the first. It must have substance rather than simply the pomp and circumstance of the first,” argues Klingner. “There are concerns in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo that President Trump may agree to several North Korean proposals that appear beneficial but contain hidden perils.” “U.S. claims of success at the 2018 Singapore Summit were excessive and premature. There has been no tangible progress on North Korean denuclearization. Pyongyang continues its nuclear and missile programs unabated, and there has been no degradation of the multi-faceted North Korean threat to the United States and its allies. The U.S. is now risking a second summit with North Korea without first insisting on fleshing out the bare bones of the Singapore Summit statement.” END THE WAR: Both sides have talked about declaring an formal end to the Korean War, whose hostilities ended in 1953 with an armistice, not a peace treaty. That idea got an endorsement yesterday from a group of Democratic members of Congress, plus former president Jimmy Carter. Yesterday, Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., and 18 other Democrats introduced a resolution calling for “a final settlement of the Korean War” and included in their press release a quotation from Carter. “I commend this important resolution that will help bring this nearly 70 year conflict to a close,” said Carter. “I have visited North Korea several times to talk with their leadership and study the best path forward for peace. Ending the threat of war is the only way to ensure true security for both the Korean and American people and will create the conditions to alleviate the suffering of the ordinary North Koreans who are most harmed by ongoing tensions.” Carter famously made a trip to Pyongyang in 1994 as a private citizen and brokered what became the “framework agreement,” under which North Korea was supposed to give up its nuclear program. It instead secretly developed nuclear weapons. Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. |
HAPPENING TODAY — TRANSGENDER TROOPS TELL THEIR STORIES: The House Military Personnel Subcommittee hears testimony this afternoon from currently serving transgender service members as well as Pentagon officials, as Democrats try to marshal opposition to the Trump administration ban on transgender troops, which remains on hold despite a Supreme Court decision that appeared to clear the way for implementation of the policy. The testimony comes as three dozen retired flag and general officers released a statement calling the Trump administration’s use of “military judgment” to defend its transgender troop ban a “pretext [that] risks inflicting harms that go well beyond” the transgender service issue. The statement, which was released by the Palm Center, reads in part: “We stand with the Service Chiefs of all five military branches who have testified that transgender-inclusive service — which has been policy for over 2.5 years — has succeeded, while discrimination and double standards harm combat effectiveness by wasting talent and compromising military integrity.” BORDER EMERGENCY VOTE: As expected, the House yesterday voted to revoke President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency at the southwest border on a mostly, but not entirely, party-line vote. Thirteen Republicans joined Democrats in the 245-to-182 vote to send the measure to the Senate, which now has 18 days to take it up. Under the provisions of the National Emergencies Act, the measure nullifying the declaration requires only a simple majority, meaning Democrats need only four Republicans to pass the measure and send it to the president’s desk, where it faces a promised veto. Republican senators Thom Tillis, N.C, Lisa Murkowski, Alaska, and Susan Collins, Maine, are on record saying they will vote with the Democrats, while Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have both expressed reservations about the precedent of a president using an emergency declaration to flout the will of Congress. Neither chamber, though, appears to have the two-thirds majority required to override a presidential veto. NOT A MILITARY THREAT: Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, Air Force Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy was forced to admit that the influx of civilians crossing the U.S.-Mexico border does not constitute a military threat to the national security of the United States. “It is not a military threat but that’s slightly different than the answer of whether military should be responding to the situation,” said O’Shaughnessy, while adding that he believed border security is national security and that border barriers help protect the country. O’Shaughnessy heads U.S. Northern Command, which is responsible for defense of the homeland against foreign threat, and he faced questioning from Democrats who accuse Trump of exaggerating the problems at the border for political gain. “I’m concerned, General, very frankly that this administration is politicizing our military and militarizing our immigration policy, in effect using the troops under your command as political props, both in terms of declaring a fake emergency, but also compromising our potential security by diverting them away from other assignments and missions that are absolutely necessary,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. Blumenthal and other Democrats tried to pin down O’Shaughnessy on whether he was consulted before Trump declared an emergency at the border and whether he agreed with the president’s assessment. And the general struggled to answer without getting on the wrong side of his commander in chief. “Did you recommend that he declare a national emergency?” asked Blumenthal. “Sir, I did not directly recommend either way,” replied O’Shaughnessy. “I will say I have had multiple conversations, numerous conversations directly with the president with respect to the border … and I think, I feel very comfortable that, as the operational commander, that our perspective was considered as those decisions were made.” BIPARTISAN RESERVATIONS: While Republicans generally support the president’s desire to build more walls on the border, they do worry about how those emergency powers might be used in the future. Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, voted against the resolution of disapproval yesterday but noted his reservations about funding for troops being diverted for other purposes. “I will also work to prevent the diversion of essential military funds. We have made restoring readiness and supporting our troops and their families a bipartisan priority. That work must continue,” he said. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., framed the issue this way: “If we let the president take $6 billion out of the Pentagon’s budget to deal with a non-military threat of drugs, then you guys are going to see money taken out of your budget for other emergencies as well.” But Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., thinks it all comes down to the Democrats’ disdain for Trump. “The only thing being manufactured is Democrats arguing there is no crisis at the border. Why? They don’t want to recognize Trump as the legitimate president. Democrats’ refusal to acknowledge the problems and crisis at our southern border is pure political hypocrisy.” CHANGE THE LAW: “If lawmakers do not like the laws they’ve passed and we are charged to enforce, then they should have the courage and skill to change the laws. Otherwise they should shut up and support the men and women on the front lines.’’ Those were the words of Department of Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly in an April 2017 speech at George Washington University. The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University law school might say Kelly had a point. The problem is not that Trump is abusing power he doesn’t have but rather that he is using power that Congress gave him, including the power to declare a national emergency with no clear definition of what qualifies as an emergency. But what Congress giveth, it may also taketh away. The Brennan Center says it has drawn up a roadmap for members of Congress to effectively push back against President Trump’s use of emergency powers and to prevent abuse by future presidents. “President Trump’s emergency declaration highlights critical weaknesses in the National Emergencies Act that Congress can fix,” says Elizabeth Goitein, co-director of Brennan’s Liberty and National Security Program. An expert on presidential emergency powers, Goitein is scheduled to testify Thursday before the House Judiciary Committee. “First on any reform agenda,” Goitein says, “should be to define what an emergency is, shorten the time for states of emergency, and transfer the power to renew states of emergency from the president to Congress.” “This is about much more than if a wall will be built. It’s about whether Congress will stand up for itself and for the constitutional separation of powers, or allow the president to seize control of the power of the purse,” Goiten says. TRUMP GOT SPACE FORCE RIGHT: The commander of U.S. Strategic Command told Congress yesterday that he had worried President Trump would insist that his Space Force be a completely separate department in the Pentagon and was relieved Trump agreed to make it part of the Air Force instead. “I give the president and the vice president big credit for not creating a Department of the Space Force at this time, but putting that capability in the Air Force, because I was very concerned about creating excess bureaucracy,” said Air Force Gen. John Hyten, who commands America’s nuclear forces. “It’s just not sized right now in order to do that. It will be some day, but it’s just not reached that point right now.” ALBRIGHT APOLOGIZES: Turns out Mitt Romney had it right. Mocked during the 2012 presidential campaign for his warning about the growing threat from Russia, Romney has been vindicated by time, Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, noted yesterday at a House Intelligence Committee hearing. “We all now agree that Russia is an adversary.” You may recall that when asked during the campaign which nation he considered the biggest geopolitical threat to the United States, the Republican nominee named Russia. His Democratic rival, President Obama, sneered at the judgment in a presidential debate. “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back,” he said. “The Cold War’s been over for 20 years.” One of the witnesses at yesterday’s hearing was former secretary of state Madeleine Albright, who was among those who mocked Romney. “I personally owe an apology to now-Senator Romney because I think that we underestimated what was going on in Russia,” she said under questioning from Turner. “We underestimated Russia, and Putin has put them back on the scene.” HALEY TO BOEING: Boeing, one of the largest U.S. defense contractors, is tapping Nikki Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor, for its board. The 47-year-old is among the few high-level Trump administration appointees to leave of her own volition, receiving a rare congratulatory send-off from the Oval Office. Her relationship with the company dates to her tenure as governor of South Carolina, where Boeing took advantage of right-to-work laws to open an airliner assembly plant in 2011 after years of contentious dealings with unions in its Seattle-area manufacturing base. If her nomination is confirmed by Boeing shareholders at the company’s April 29 annual meeting, Haley will join a board that currently includes former White House chief of staff Kenneth Duberstein, former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Adm. Edmund Giambastiani, and Caroline Kennedy, former president Barack Obama‘s ambassador to Japan and the daughter of former president John F. Kennedy. US TAKES RUSSIAN TROLL FARM OFFLINE: The U.S. military blocked a Russian troll farm’s Internet access to protect the 2018 midterm elections — a move approved by President Trump, the Washington Post reported yesterday. U.S. Cyber Command conducted the operation against the Internet Research Agency, a company based in St. Petersburg that was charged by special counsel Robert Mueller for meddling during the 2016 election. U.S. Cyber Command used intelligence collected by the National Security Agency to block the Internet Research Agency’s access to the Internet for hours ahead of the 2018 midterm elections while U.S. voters went to the polls and in subsequent days while the votes were counted, prompting Internet Research Agency employees to notify their IT department of the issue. The operation’s objective was to bar Russians from spreading false information that undermined election results. The operation against the Russian troll farm, which is funded by an oligarch with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, signified the first cyber campaign designed to counter Russian interference in a U.S. election. THE RUNDOWN New York Times: Pakistani Military Says It Shot Down 2 Indian Fighters, Capturing Pilots Vox: Exclusive: here’s the tentative deal Trump and Kim Jong Un may strike in Vietnam Washington Post: Top general wants key nuclear pact with Russia expanded to include new weapons Military Times: Airdrops increase 20-fold as Taliban threaten Afghan roadways and provincial capitals Forbes: Why President Trump Will Likely Be Reelected, And What It Means For Global Security Defense One: Why Withdrawing from Syria and Afghanistan Won’t Save Much Money Marine Times: Another Marine is being investigated for neo-Nazi ties amid military concerns about white supremacy Military.com: Navy Has Canceled 2 Ship Deployments Since Deadly Collisions, Admiral Says Stars and Stripes: Admiral: If ships aren’t ready, ‘they’re not going’ Defense News: How the US Air Force’s Kessel Run team plans to solve one of the F-35 program’s biggest headaches Stars and Stripes: Transgender servicemembers prepare to defend their service on Capitol Hill Bloomberg: Military Pushes Parts Maker TransDigm to Return ‘Excess Profit’ |
CalendarWEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 27 10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy: A Mid-Term Assessment. Witnesses: former secretary of state Madeleine Albright. www.foreignaffairs.house.gov 10:15 a.m. SD-419. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Assessing the Role of the United States in the World. www.foreign.senate.gov 10:15 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Rep. Seth Moulton, member of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces, will join Bryan McGrath, Hudson Institute’s Deputy Director of the Center for American Seapower, for a discussion on the future of the U.S. Navy and its role in American defense and foreign policy. Live streamed at www.hudson.org 12:15 p.m. 1700 Army Navy Drive Marine Corps Lt. Gen. John Broadmeadow, deputy commander, U.S. Transportation Command, provides keynote remarks at the National Defense Industrial Association’s Expeditionary Warfare Division Annual Meeting, Army Navy Country Club, Arlington. www.ndia.org 2 p.m. SR-222 Russell. Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing on military personnel policies and military family readiness. Witnesses include: Army Deputy Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands; Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Vice Adm. Robert Burke; Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff For Manpower, Personnel And Services Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly; and Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Manpower and Reserve Affairs Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco, Sgt. Maj. of the Army Daniel Dailey; Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy Russell Smith; Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force Kaleth Wright; and Sgt. Maj. of the Marine Corps Ronald Green. 2 p.m. 2359 Rayburn. House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies hearing on the national emergency declaration to build a border wall and its effect on military construction and readiness. Witness include: Assistant Secretary of Defense for Sustainment Robert McMahon; Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense Integration and Defense Support of Civil Authorities Robert Salesses; Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment Alex Beehler; Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Energy, Installations and Environment Phyllis Bayer; and Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Installations, Environment and Energy John Henderson. 3 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing on Transgender Service Policy. Panel 1: Dr. Jesse Ehrenfeld, Lt. Cmdr. Blake Dremann, Army Capt. Alivia Stehlik, Army Capt. Jennifer Peace, Army Staff Sgt. Patricia King, and Navy HM3 Akira Wyatt. Panel 2: James Stewart, performing the duties of under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness, and Vice Adm. Raquel Bono, director of the Defense Health Agency. www.armedservices.house.gov 2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. “The future of U.S. policy in Afghanistan.” www.brookings.edu THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 28 8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2020 Budget and Policy Forum.” www.csis.org 8:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Congress and the National Defense Strategy: A bipartisan conversation with congressional national security leaders.” www.aei.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen SD-G50. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Nuclear Policy and Posture. Witnesses: Madelyn R. Creedon, former principal deputy administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; Franklin C. Miller, former special assistant to the president of the United States and former senior director for defense policy and arms control, National Security Council staff; General C. Robert Kehler, USAF (ret.), former commander, United States Strategic Command. www.armed-services.senate.gov FRIDAY | MARCH 1 11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400. “Victory Over the Islamic State and U.S. Withdrawal From Syria.” www.hudson.org 12:15 p.m. 740 15th Street N.W. “Trump’s Taliban Negotiations: What it Means for Afghanistan.” www.newamerica.org SUNDAY | MARCH 3 10:30 a.m. 8900 Little River Turnpike, Fairfax. Breakfast discussion with rocket scientist behind Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, Dr. Ari Sacher. jnf.org/vabreakfast MONDAY | MARCH 4 12:30 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Peacebuilding in Northeast Asia: North Koreans in Russia and Implications for the United States and Japan.” www.sais-jhu.edu 3 p.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. Pakistani Ambassador to U.S. Dr. Asad Majeed Khan on Pakistan’s Priorities. www.usip.org TUESDAY | MARCH 5 8 a.m. 2201 G St N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast featuring Dr. Kiron Skinner, director of policy planning, U.S. State Department, Crain Center Duques Hall George Washington School of Business. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/ 6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard. Breakfast discussion with Army chief information officer Lt. Gen. Bruce T. Crawford. www.ausa.org WEDNESDAY | MARCH 6 9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. “After the Trump-Kim summit 2.0: What’s next for US policy on North Korea?” www.brookings.edu 10 a.m. Cannon 310. “The Way Forward on Border Security.” www.homeland.house.gov 10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. “The Hanoi Summit: Implications and Opportunities.” www.stimson.org THURSDAY | MARCH 7 2:45 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Bridging America’s Civil-Military Divide.” www.sais-jhu.edu MONDAY | MARCH 11 7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. www.carnegieendowment.org TUESDAY | MARCH 12 7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference (Day 2). www.carnegieendowment.org WEDNESDAY | MARCH 13 4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. “Putin’s World.” www.brookings.edu TUESDAY | MARCH 19 8 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Religious Authority in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. Policy.” www.carnegieendowment.org |
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