BIDEN BEDEVILED: Russia’s ominous troop buildup on Ukraine’s border, China’s not-so-veiled threats against Taiwan, North Korea’s intransigence on denuclearization, and the looming collapse of the Iran nuclear talks are creating a perfect storm of seemingly intractable foreign policy conundrums as President Joe Biden comes to the end of his first term in office.
RUSSIA: As NATO foreign ministers gather in Riga, Latvia, today and tomorrow, there will be lots of talk about strengthening the trans-Atlantic alliance and America’s rock-solid commitment to the defense of NATO allies, but looming over the ministerial is the specter of Russia’s possible incursion into eastern Ukraine, as nearly 100,000 troops and heavy weapons are poised on the border.
Ukraine is a NATO partner, not a member, and therefore not under the protection of the 30-nation alliance, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his fellow foreign ministers are scrambling to come up with a strategy of increased military aid to Ukraine and tougher economic sanctions against Russia in an effort to convince Vladimir Putin that a repeat of Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 is not worth it.
“We see some pretty worrisome behavior by President Putin,” said Mara Karlin, who is serving as the Pentagon policy chief, at a briefing yesterday. “I don’t know that any of us can read his mind and know exactly what he’s planning.”
NORTH KOREA: While Blinken is in Europe, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is winging his way to South Korea to consult with Seoul about what Karlin called North Korea’s “problematic and irresponsible behavior.”
“I expect that that will be a robust topic of dialogue,” she said. Since Biden took office, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has rebuffed all U.S. entreaties to restart denuclearization talks that collapsed under the Trump administration. One idea to break the impasse seems to be going nowhere, a proposal to offer Pyongyang a declaration ending the 1950-53 Korean War.
“I don’t expect an announcement on that,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby yesterday. “We remain committed to achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and diplomacy with the North. To this end, I think you’re going to see us continue to seek engagement with the DPRK as part of a calibrated practical approach.”
IRAN: Despite optimistic statements from Enrique Mora, the European Union official overseeing talks with Iran over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, the hopes of the Biden administration of bringing Iran back into compliance appear to be fading.
Iran’s hard-line demands — including a guarantee that no future president will do what Trump did and rip up the agreement — seem impossible to meet, especially with the real prospect that Trump could retake the White House in 2024.
And Iran has ramped up its nuclear program over the last year and is now close to having enough fissile material to make a nuclear weapon, even as it claims its program is for peaceful energy generation.
“A mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA is the best option to restrict Iran’s nuclear program and also provide a platform to address its destabilizing conduct,” said State Department deputy spokeswoman Jalina Porter. “And, of course, if Iran demands more or happens to offer less, these negotiations will not succeed.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate meets at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of H.R. 4350, the National Defense Authorization Act, after Republicans blocked a vote, demanding more time to consider amendments.
“In a speech ahead of the vote, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said lawmakers should consider an amendment, among others, to put sanctions on those involved in constructing the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Germany that will ultimately benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin,” reports Susan Ferrechio, the Washington Examiner’s chief congressional correspondent.
Majority Leader Chuck Schumer accused Republicans of making unreasonable demands. “When we’ve had bills like this, I’ve had to tell certain members, ‘You can’t get certain amendments,’” Schumer said. “Not everyone can have every amendment they want.”
Schumer must now negotiate with McConnell to strike a deal on amendments. Congress must also pass an extension of federal government funding, which expires Friday, as well as an increase in the borrowing limit.
REPUBLICANS BLOCK DEFENSE BILL, STALLING SCHUMER’S DECEMBER SPENDING SPRINT
IN DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY: South Carolina Republican Rep. Nancy Mace is making no apologies for infuriating Beijing with a tweet she posted after arriving in Taipei as part of a congressional delegation that made a surprise visit to Taiwan after the Chinese Embassy in Washington warned them against it.
In the tweet, Mace says, “Just touched down in the Republic of Taiwan,” a name for the island democracy not recognized by China.
“It was a subtle but strong message to the people of Taiwan and Taiwanese Americans as well, that we support the Taiwanese people, and that we want to protect — I believe help protect their freedom and their democracy,” Mace said on CNN.
“That clearly goes against the China one policy,” said host Christiane Amanpour, “But you did that deliberately, right? I mean, it wasn’t an accident?”
“Oh, no, it was not an accident at all. And I will tell you the tremendous support for that tweet around the world,” replied Mace. “That message reverberated. And I’m proud to be part of the bipartisan delegation that did not listen to China when they made the demands to cancel our trip.”
DELEGATION VISITS TAIWAN AMID TENSIONS WITH CHINA
MIGHT ESPER PULL A BOLTON? In his first interview since filing a lawsuit against the Biden administration, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said it’s possible he may do what former national security adviser John Bolton did — publish his unredacted insider account of his time in the Trump administration in defiance of government censors.
But Esper told CNN’s Jake Tapper that he’d prefer not to. “Well, I could, but, look, I want to do it the right way. I want to set the proper example. I have followed the process diligently now for nearly six months. I have engaged with them both formally and informally. And the next step, regrettably, has been the lawsuit step.”
Esper says he’s not sure why many parts of the book that are not classified, and in some cases, already public, were marked for deletion during the approval process for his memoir A Sacred Oath.
“I wrote this memoir for a number of reasons. One is not just to tell a good story about what happened during those tumultuous times, but also for history, for students of government, for policymakers today, to give them some insights into what I was thinking, how I tried to work my way through day-to-day activities. What were the core principles that guided me? And where did I succeed? Where did I come up short?”
Esper, who had been fired two months before the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, also said he’d been contacted by the congressional committee now investigating the attack. “Yes, they have reached out to me. We haven’t been able to connect yet.”
WHO CONTROLS THE GUARD? Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in a tug-of-war with Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt over who has final say on vaccine mandates for the state National Guard, who are under command of the governor but have pay and benefits provided by the Pentagon.
In a letter to Stitt, Austin rejected his request for an exemption from the requirement that all military members be vaccinated against COVID-19. Stitt, a Republican, maintains that he is commander in chief.
At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, spokesman John Kirby indicated that Austin would not force the issue with Stitt, but he said individual Guard members, who are part of the “total force” the Pentagon relied on to augment active-duty forces, could lose their jobs if they fail to get vaccinated.
“In general, by not taking the vaccine, therefore not meeting a mandatory readiness requirement,” Kirby said, “An individual in the National Guard could put in jeopardy their ability to continue to serve in the National Guard.”
MILITARY COVID DEPLOYMENTS: In a sign that in some parts of the country COVID cases are spiking, the military is deploying more medical teams to support civilian hospitals that are overwhelmed with patients.
“At the request of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, approximately 60 military medical personnel will deploy in three, 20-person teams — two teams to Michigan and one team to New Mexico — to support civilian healthcare workers treating COVID-19 patients in local hospitals,” said a statement by Army North, the land component of the U.S. Northern Command.
The teams — which include nurses, respiratory therapists, and doctors — will join eight other teams currently working in five states — three in Montana, two in Minnesota, one in Colorado, one in Idaho, and one in Utah.
POSSIBLE WAR CRIME PROBED: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has tapped Army Gen. Michael Garrett, commander of U.S. Army Forces Command to conduct a 90-day review of the circumstances surrounding March 18, 2019, airstrikes in Syria that resulted in the deaths of more than 60 civilians.
The review followed a New York Times investigation that alleged a cover-up of the botched airstrikes and a report by Bloomberg that the U.S. Central Command failed to act on whistleblower complaints at the time.
“The inquiry will include an assessment of the following things, the civilian casualties that resulted from the incident, compliance with the law of war, record keeping and reporting procedures, whether mitigation measures identified in previous investigations into the incident were in fact implemented effectively. Whether accountability measures would be appropriate, and finally, whether authorities procedures or processes should be altered,” said spokesman John Kirby.
AUSTIN ORDERS REVIEW INTO YEARS-OLD SYRIAN STRIKE THAT KILLED CIVILIANS
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Republicans block defense bill, stalling Schumer’s December spending sprint
Washington Examiner: Taliban responsible for executing more than 100 former police and intel officers in Afghanistan: Watchdog
Washington Examiner: Austin orders review into years-old Syrian strike that killed civilians
Washington Examiner: US to strengthen bases in Guam and Australia as countermeasure to China
Washington Examiner: Just 5% of active-duty Marines defy COVID-19 vaccination mandate
Washington Examiner: Russia says latest hypersonic missile test was a success
Washington Examiner: Helping Iran fail in Iraq
Washington Post: Opinion: As space activity — and its debris — increases, the U.S. works to establish international norms and rules
Air Force Magazine: DOD Announces Force Posture Changes in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, but Future of Spangdahlem AB Still Unclear
Forbes: The Chinese Air Force’s New Tankers Could Help Bombers And Fighters Surround Taiwan
Reuters: T-Day: The Battle for Taiwan
Reuters: Latvia Calls For Permanent U.S. Troops To Guard Against Russia Threat
USNI News: Destroyer USS Arleigh Burke Operating in Black Sea After Bulgaria Port Visit
USNI News: Navy Loses 16th Sailor To COVID-19
San Diego Union-Tribune: Majority Of Vaccine Exemption Requests Denied By Marine Corps As Mandate Deadline Passes
19fortyfive.com: Should Taiwan Buy F-35 Stealth Fighters?
19fortyfive.com: The US Army’s New XM-1147 Tank ‘Bullet’ Looks Revolutionary
19fortyfive.com: Why Boeing’s F-15EX Fighter Is Now ‘Unstoppable’
Calendar
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 30
Time undisclosed — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for Seoul, South Korea for Thursday’s 53rd U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting and troop visits. https://www.defense.gov/News/Advisories
8:15 a.m. Orlando, Florida — Interservice/Industry Training, Simulation and Education Conference with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger https://www.youtube.com/user/NTSAToday
10 a.m. 1501 Langston Blvd — Air Force Association discussion: “Air and Space Warfighters in Action” with Air Force Undersecretary Gina Ortiz Jones; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Bruce “Orville” Wright, AFA president. Livestream at https://www.afa.org/events/airmen-in-the-fight
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group and SailPoint virtual 2021 Government Identity Security Summit, with Chris Cleary, principal cyber adviser at the Navy Department, delivers remarks on “Enabling Trusted Digital Experiences in the DoD” https://idgov.govexec.com
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual briefing: “Streamlining Risk Mitigation,” part of the “Meeting the Mission Through Low Code Modernization” series, with Nate Parker, data scientist at the Army Futures Command https://event.on24.com/wcc
3 p.m. — American University Washington College of Law virtual discussion: “Combating Ransomware: A Matter of National Security, with Marine Corps Lt. Col. Kurt Sanger, deputy staff judge advocate at U.S. Cyber Command; Sujit Raman, privacy and cybersecurity partner at Sidley Austin; Kristen Eichensehr, law professor and director of the University of Virginia School of Law’s National Security Law Center; and Gary Corn, director of the AU WCL Technology, Law and Security Program https://www.wcl.american.edu/impact/initiatives-programs
WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 1
12:30 a.m. — Virtual ReutersNEXT global conference featuring “world leaders, big business and forward-thinking pioneers,” including NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg; State Department Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry; and Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; and many others https://reutersevents.com/events/next/register.php
9 a.m. National Harbor Marina — Defense Strategies Institute Space Resiliency Summit with John Hill, performing the duties of assistant defense secretary for space policy delivering remarks on “Coordinating Space Policy and Strategy to Further U.S. interests in Space and at Home” https://space.dsigroup.org/
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “China’s Power: Up for Debate 2021,” with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project https://www.csis.org/events/chinas-power-debate
9:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Tracking U.S. Arms: Implications for Security and Stability,” with former Afghan Deputy Interior Minister Hosna Jalil; Elias Yousif, deputy director of the Security Assistance Monitor; Justine Fleischner, head of regional operations at Conflict Armament Research; and Rachel Stohl, vice president of research programs at Stimson. https://stimsoncenter.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — Ronald Reagan Foundation and Institute releases its fourth annual Reagan National Defense Survey.
10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: “Achievements of State Building in Ukraine,” with Oleksandr Merezhko, member of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada; Georgiy Kasianov, head of the Sklodowska University Laboratory of International Memory Studies; Mykhailo Minakov, editor-in-chief of Focus Ukraine blog; and Kateryna Pishchikova, associate professor at eCampus University https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/achievements-state-building-ukraine
11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “The Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Why the Humpty Dumpty JCPOA Should Not Be Renewed,” with Fred Fleitz, president of the Center for Security Policy; Peter Brookes, senior research fellow at Heritage; and James Phillips, senior research fellow at Heritage https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/event/the-iran-nuclear-negotiations
3 p.m. 418 Russell — Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing on “An End-of-Year Look at the State of VA.” https://www.veterans.senate.gov/hearings
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: “Global Jihad: A Brief History,” with author Glenn Robinson, associate professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-global-jihad-brief-history
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 2
8:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “North Korea in a new era of U.S.-South Korea partnership,” with Sohn Yul, president of the East Asia Institute; Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy; Soo Kim, policy analyst at the RAND Corporation; Jihwan Hwang, professor of international relations at the University of Seoul; Jina Kim, professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; and Andrew Yeo, visiting fellow at the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies https://www.brookings.edu/events/north-korea
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Will Russia invade Ukraine again?” with Hanna Shelest, director of security studies at the Foreign Policy Council’s “Ukrainian Prism”; former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried, fellow at the Atlantic Council; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/will-russia-invade-ukraine-again
9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion with Christine Abizaid, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, on the shift of intelligence resources to focus on China and Russia, and the impact on the nation’s counterterrorism posture. https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-conversation
9 a.m. — Defense Strategies Institute Space Resiliency Summit with Lindsay Millard, principal director for space in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, delivering remarks on “Assuring America’s Space Capabilities and Maintaining the Nation’s Competitive Advantage in the Space Domain” https://space.dsigroup.org/
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Adm. Christopher W. Grady to be vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness Hearing: “Minding the Gap: How Operational Energy Can Help Us Address Logistics Challenges,” with Lt. Gen. Sam Barrett, Joint Staff director for logistics, J-4; Lt. Gen. Duane Gamble, Army deputy chief of staff, G-4; Vice Adm. Rick Williamson, deputy chief of naval operations for fleet readiness and logistics, N-4; Lt. Gen. Edward Banta, Deputy Marine Corps Commandant, installations and logistics; Lt. Gen. Warren Berry, Air Force deputy chief of staff for logistics, engineering and force protection, A-4 https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The European Union’s New Strategic Compass, with EU Military Staff Director General Vice Adm. Herve Blejean https://www.csis.org/events/eus-new-strategic-compass
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 3
12:30 a.m. — ReutersNEXT three-day global conference wraps up a full day of events with a 4:30 p.m. interview with Secretary of State Antony Blinken on “Leading the Way in Challenging Times” https://reutersevents.com/events/next/register.php
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “How to address extremism among veterans,” with William Braniff, director of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism; Shawn Turner, senior adviser at the Veterans Affairs Department; Cynthia Miller-Idriss, professor at American University; Kathleen Belew, assistant professor at the University of Chicago https://www.brookings.edu/events/how-to-address-extremism-among-veterans/
12 p.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “Addressing a Revanchist Russia,” with Steven Pifer, research fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
SATURDAY | DECEMBER 4
5 p.m. EST Simi Valley, California — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers keynote address on China at day one of the two-day Reagan National Defense Forum 2021 https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There has never been a more propitious moment for Putin if he wants to invade Ukraine.”
Fiona Hill, former top Russia adviser in the Trump administration, as quoted by the Washington Post.
