Putin’s latest defeat: Failing to curb the eastward expansion of NATO

In a highly anticipated joint statement, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced today that Finland will move ahead with plans to join NATO, with a vote in the Finnish parliament as soon as next week.

“NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance,” the Finnish leaders said. “Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days.”

FINLAND’S LEADERS ANNOUNCE INTENTION TO JOIN NATO ALLIANCE

SWEDEN’S NEXT: Finland’s neighbor to the west, Sweden, is expected to make a similar decision to abandon its decades-old neutrality and join NATO in the coming days.

The rapid move by Finland and Sweden to align with the West comes a day after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to Helsinki and Stockholm and signed security agreements with both countries, pledging to come to their aid militarily in the event they are attacked.

The addition of Finland and Sweden would increase the NATO alliance to 32 member nations, and approval is expected to be quick, given that both countries have highly capable militaries, a tradition of democratic rule, and have already partnered with NATO in exercises and some operations.

“Both Finland and Sweden are close in value defense partners … Our militaries have worked together closely now for many years,” said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby last week. “We strongly support NATO’s open-door policy.”

UNITED KINGDOM PLEDGES DEFENSE OF NATO ASPIRANTS FINLAND AND SWEDEN

‘​​WE WILL WELCOME THEM WITH OPEN ARMS’: The accession of the two Nordic countries to NATO will be discussed at an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin set for this weekend. The foreign ministers of both Finland and Sweden have been invited to attend a dinner session Saturday night.

In a speech in Washington yesterday, NATO’s Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoana said NATO’s open-door policy has spread “freedom, democracy, and human rights” across Europe. “NATO enlargement is the result of sovereign choices by independent nations to define their own destiny, and to join a family of free nations,” he said.

Last month, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO would welcome the new members with “open arms,” because they would strengthen the alliance.

“We know them well, they are our closest partners. They are strong, mature democracies. They are NATO’s closest partners, we have worked for them for many, many years. They are EU members,” Stoltenberg said. “So I strongly believe that an accession process can go very quickly.”

“And it will demonstrate to President Putin that he gets exactly the opposite of what he wants. He invaded Ukraine because he wants less NATO at Russia’s borders. What he gets is more NATO,” he said. “It is the aggressive actions, the threatening rhetoric by Russia that has made so many nations in Europe decide to go for NATO membership.”

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Jordan’s King Abdullah II to the Pentagon in a ceremony on the River Entrance steps at 1:15 p.m.

ALSO TODAY: DEATHS ON THE GW: Top Navy officials appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 a.m., and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) has already signaled that he wants answers about the what the Navy is doing in response to a spike in suicides among the crew of aircraft carrier USS George Washington while it is docked in Newport News for repairs and replenishment.

The ship has lost nine crew members in the past two years while the ship has been undergoing a five-year overhaul. Three sailors committed suicide during a single week in April.

Kaine, who has more than 125,000 servicemembers in his state, co-sponsored the “Brandon Act,” named for Petty Officer Third Class Brandon Caserta, who died by suicide at Naval Station Norfolk in 2018, which is to allow servicemembers to confidentially seek mental health treatment.

The issue was raised at yesterday’s House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), who said the long repair for ships is “creating a dispirited situation” for some junior sailors, who are isolated on ships that are basically construction zones.

“For hundreds of those sailors, they have no access to housing or a car, and they’re stuck on a ship. This is really demoralizing,” Kaptur said. “And I am troubled … because I see it getting worse.”

“You know that there are two investigations ongoing by the Navy on the George Washington issue, and I look forward to seeing the results of those investigations,” responded Austin. “The secretary of Navy is headed down to visit with the George Washington chain of command here on the 17th. And should have greater insights to provide from that visit as well.”

HYPERSONIC HYPE: During their testimony yesterday, Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley tried to tamp down some of the hype about Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles to attack targets in Ukraine, the logic of which is not readily apparent.

Here’s the thing about hypersonic missiles, they are hyper-fast, and especially if they have a maneuverable warhead, they are hyper-hard to shoot down. But other than that, when used in conventional warfare, they are not much of an upgrade from standard cruise missiles. They are not hyper-powerful, unless they are tipped with a nuclear warhead.

By the way, standard ballistic missiles, such as ICBMs, are also technically hypersonic, given that during portions of their flight they exceed Mach 5, five times the speed of sound. The ability of hypersonic weapons to evade sophisticated, multilayered missile defense is not much of an advantage when your adversity doesn’t possess such defenses.

“Obviously the distinguishing factor of hypersonic missiles is the speed at which it travels,” said Milley, “We have analyzed each of these shots that they’ve taken, but other than the speed of the weapon, in terms of its effect on a given target, we are not seeing really significant or game-changing effects.”

So why is Putin using his top-of-the-line missiles to attack static infrastructure? The Russians may be running low on standard missiles, or he may think it sends a psychological message.

RUSSIAN HYPERSONIC MISSILES IN UKRAINE HAVE NOT ‘BEEN A GAME-CHANGER,’ US SAYS

AUSTIN: ‘A FIGHT THAT HE REALLY DOESN’T WANT TO HAVE’: In response to a question from Rep. Harold Rogers (R-KY), Austin said he believes Putin is highly unlikely to attack across the borders of any NATO country, such as Poland, which has been the main supply route for U.S. arms shipment to Ukraine.

“It’s always dangerous to go down the road of hypotheticals, but this is an issue that’s very, very important. If Russia decides to attack any nation that’s a NATO member — that’s a game-changer,” Austin said. “My view is that Russia doesn’t want to take on the NATO alliance.”

“They’re 1.9 million forces in NATO. NATO has the most advanced capabilities of any alliance in the world in terms of aircraft, ships, types of weaponry that the ground forces use,” he said. “So this is a fight that he really doesn’t want to have.”

UKRAINE OFFERS TO EXCHANGE RUSSIAN POWS FOR TROOPS TRAPPED INSIDE STEEL PLANT

MEDALS FOR WWII RANGERS: A bipartisan bill to honor the U.S. Army Ranger veterans of World War II with Congressional Gold Medals has passed the House and is headed to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. The bill passed the Senate unanimously in October.

The yearslong effort was spearheaded by Sens. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), both combat veterans.

“For years I’ve worked across the aisle to honor our brave World War II Army Rangers, like the late Lester Cook of Des Moines, who risked life and limb in the name of our great country,” said Ernst in a statement. “I’m thrilled that the House has taken action and cleared the way for the president to sign this important bill into law to recognize the valor and extraordinary service of these courageous Army Rangers with the Congressional Gold Medal — a small token of appreciation from a grateful nation.”

“U.S. Army Rangers bravely wore the uniform of this great nation and participated in some of the most important battles of World War II,” said Duckworth. “The impact and influence of these elite soldiers and the sacrifices they made to protect their fellow Americans cannot be overstated.”

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The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Finland’s leaders announce intention to join NATO alliance

Washington Examiner: United Kingdom pledges defense of NATO aspirants Finland and Sweden

Washington Examiner: Ukraine offers to exchange Russian POWs for troops trapped inside steel plant

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian forces blow up two makeshift Russian bridges in Ukraine, drone images show

Washington Examiner: US-based nonprofit group rescues American and family held by Russians in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: US ambassador to Russia meets with counterparts in ‘pre-scheduled meeting’

Washington Examiner: Russian hypersonic missiles in Ukraine have not ‘been a game-changer,’ US says

Washington Examiner: Russian soldier accused of committing war crimes to stand trial, Ukraine says

Washington Examiner: Ukraine could ‘definitely win’ depending on how victory is defined, experts say

Washington Examiner: China races to consolidate strategic victory in Solomon Islands

Washington Examiner: North Korea acknowledges COVID-19 case for first time

Washington Examiner: Intelligence community chiefs give update on Afghan terrorist threat

Washington Post: Sanctions forcing Russia to use appliance parts in military gear, U.S. says

Washington Post: Ukraine regains territory, and crime scene investigators move in

New York Times: In A First, A Russian Soldier Will Stand Trial In Ukraine On War Crimes Charges.

AP: Army poised to revamp Alaska forces to prep for Arctic fight

Seapower Magazine: CNO: Keep R&D Alive for Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missile

Bloomberg: Navy Risks Blowback in Bid to Scrap $5 Billion of Troubled Ships

CNN: U.S. Navy Chief Defends Plan To Scrap Troubled Warships Even Though Some Are Less Than 3 Years Old

Breaking Defense: Decommissioned Ship Funds Would Go Towards Buying Missiles, Navy Says

Air Force Magazine: Pentagon Watchdog: Space Command HQ Selection Process ‘Reasonable’

Defense News: Marines To Update Amphibious Ops Concept Amid Uncertainty Over Future Ship Count

Defense One: Marine Corps Wants Loitering Munitions For Its Infantry Units

Air Force Magazine: MDA Hopes to Add Its Own Satellites to Missile Tracking Architecture

Air Force Magazine: KC-46 Sets AMC Endurance Record With 24.2-Hour Flight

Marine Corps Times: Marines To Field Multibarrel Sniper Rifle To Replace Two Existing Weapons

19fortyfive.com: Could NATO Still Send MiG-29s To Ukraine to Fight Russia?

19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Now Using More ‘Invincible’ Hypersonic Missiles in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Javelin or NLAW – Which Missile Is Better at Destroying Russian Tanks?

19fortyfive.com: Does This Picture Reveal a New Chinese Hunter-Killer Attack Submarine?

The Cipher Brief: Analysis: The National Security Implications of New Rules of the Road for Cyber

Calendar

THURSDAY | MAY 12

9:30 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “U.S. Efforts to Support Ukraine Against Russian Aggression, with testimony from Jessica Lewis, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs; Erin McKee, assistant administrator for Europe and Eurasia, U.S. Agency for International Development; Karen Donfried, assistant secretary of state for european and eurasian affairs; and Beth Van Schaack, ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Department of the Army Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request,” with testimony from Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces hearing: “Air Force Projection Forces Aviation Programs and Capabilities related to the FY2023 President’s Budget Request,” with testimony from Andrew Hunter, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics; and Lt. Gen. David Nahom, deputy Air Force chief of staff for plans and programs https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

4:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems hearing: “Reviewing Department of Defense Science and Technology Strategy, Policy, and Programs for Fiscal Year 2023: Accelerating the Pace of Innovation,” with testimony from Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; William Nelson, deputy assistant secretary of the Army for Research and Technology; Kristen Baldwin, deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for science, technology, and engineering; Paul Mann, acting deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, test, and evaluation https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

5:30 p.m. — President Joe Biden welcomes leaders of ASEAN countries and the ASEAN Secretary General to the White House for a dinner as part of the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit, commemorating 45 years of U.S.-ASEAN relations

FRIDAY | MAY 13

TBA — President Joe Biden participates in the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit at the State Department

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Marine Corps Modernization Programs,’ with testimony from Frederick “Jay” Stefany, principal civilian deputy, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; Lt. Gen. Mark Wise, Deputy Marine Corps Commandant for Aviation; Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, commanding general, Marine Corps Combat Development Command and deputy commandant for combat development and integration https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs” with Robert Kagan, senior fellow, Project on International Order and Strategy, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution, contributing columnist at the Washington Post; and Walter Russell Mead, distinguished fellow, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event

SATURDAY | MAY 14

German Federal Foreign Office — Informal meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs, May 14-15, 2022 in Berlin, Germany. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events

MONDAY | MAY 16

9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Forum with Lt. Gen.  Stephen Whiting, commander of Space Operations Command https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

TUESDAY | MAY 17

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Army Modernization Programs,” with testimony from Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisitions, logistics, and technology; Lt. Gen. James Richardson, acting commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command; Lt. Gen. Erik Peterson, Deputy Army Chief of Staff https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

4:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Budget for Nuclear Forces and Atomic Energy Defense Activities,” with testimony from Jill Hruby, undersecretary for nuclear security, Department of Energy; Deborah Rosenblum, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological Defense Programs; John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy; Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe, director, Strategic Systems Programs, U.S. Navy; Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, U.S. Air Force https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

4:30 p.m. Sheraton Waikiki in Honolulu — Press Conference by Gen. Charles Flynn, who has commander, U.S. Army Pacific, as part of the Association of the U.S. Army LANPAC Symposium and Exposition, which runs through the 19th. Email Russell Shimooka at [email protected] for more information on remote access.

WEDNESDAY | MAY 18

8 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces hearing: “Department of the Navy Fiscal Year 2023 Budget Request for Seapower and Projection Forces,” with testimony from Jay Stefany, PTDO assistant secretary of the Navy, research, development, and acquisition; Vice Adm. Scott Conn, deputy chief of naval operations, warfighting requirements and capabilities; Lt. Gen. Karsten Heckl, deputy commandant of the Marine Corps, combat development and integration https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Professional Military Education and the National Defense Strategy,” with testimony from Shawn Skelly, assistant secretary of defense for readiness; Vice Adm. Stuart Munsch, director for joint force development, the Joint Staff; retired Marine Lt. Gen. Robert Schmidle, non-resident senior fellow, CSBA; Joan Johnson-Freese, professor, national security affairs, Naval War College https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

THURSDAY | MAY 19

2 a.m. (8 a.m. CET) — Brussels, Belgium meeting of the NATO Military Chiefs of Defense with opening remarks by Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee, followed by a press conference with Bauer; Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Gen. Tod Wolters; and Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, French Gen. Philippe Lavigne at 12:25 p.m Washington time. https://www.nato.int/

FRIDAY | MAY 20

President Joe Biden travels to South Korea and Japan for bilateral meetings with his counterparts: newly-elected President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan. In Tokyo, Biden will also meet with the leaders of the Quad grouping of Australia, Japan, India, and the U.S.