‘WE WILL KNOW SOONER THAN LATER’: The Biden administration is bracing for the failure of the negotiations aimed at bringing Iran — and the United States — back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal that was torn up by former President Donald Trump in 2018.
The eighth, and possibly final, round of talks in Vienna is paused while Iranian negotiators consult with their leadership about whether they are ready to rejoin the agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.
“This is the endgame, time for political decisions,” a senior State Department official told reporters on Monday. “We are in the final stretch because, as we’ve said now for some time, this can’t go on forever because of Iran’s nuclear advances.”
“We only have a handful of weeks left to get a deal, after which point it will unfortunately be no longer possible to return to the JCPOA and to recapture the nonproliferation benefits that the deal provided for us,” the official said. “In other words, we will know sooner rather than later whether we are back … or whether we’re going to have to face a different reality, a reality of mounting tensions and crisis.”
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SAYS IRAN’S WINDOW FOR NUCLEAR DEAL IS NARROWING
‘IN THE BALLPARK’: The U.S. is holding out hope that in the end, Iran will not want to risk possible military action from the U.S. or Israel and will take the deal that is now on the table.
“The negotiations in January were among the most intensive that we’ve had to date. And we made progress narrowing down the list of differences to just the key priorities on all sides,” said the official, who described the eleventh-hour negotiations as “serious” and “businesslike.”
“There are still significant gaps, so I don’t want to in any way understate those. But we are in a position where the conversations are, as I said, businesslike, and where we can see a path to a deal if those decisions are made and if it’s done quickly,” the official said. “One of my colleagues said that we are now ‘in the ballpark.’”
Iranian media has reported that Tehran has presented a written response to the other countries that are still signatories to the deal — Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China — that could be the basis for a final agreement.
“We know that it is very possible that Iran chooses not to go down that path, and we are ready to deal with that contingency. We hope that’s not the decision that Iran makes, but we are prepared to deal with either one of them.”
AS WINDOW CLOSES ON REVIVING IRAN DEAL, DOOR OPENS ON MILITARY OPTIONS
POSSIBLE DEAL BREAKER: The U.S. has been negotiating separately for the release of four Iranian Americans who it says are unjustly imprisoned in Iran.
“We had very intensive discussions with some of the families of the hostages, and we had the opportunity to meet with Barry Rosen,” the official said. Rosen, 77, is a former U.S. diplomat who was among the 52 Americans held hostage by Iran in 1979. He went on a hunger strike in Vienna, site of the talks, two weeks ago.
“My message is simple: no deal with Iran unless the hostages are free,” Rosen said in a tweeted video.
“We are negotiating on the release of the detainees separately from the JCPOA, but as we’ve said, it is very hard for us to imagine a return to the JCPOA while four innocent Americans are behind bars or are detained in Iran,” the State Department official said.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are scheduled to talk by phone today, as Moscow has delivered a written ‘follow up” to the latest U.S. proposals to de-escalate the crisis on the Ukrainian border.
“I would characterize it as the next step, as the next step in the path of diplomacy and dialogue,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price of Blinken’s phone call with Lavrov. “We will have to see what the foreign minister has to say in terms of conveying the official position or any initial reactions from the Kremlin to our written response.”
But the key thing, Price argued, was that the U.S. now knows that Russian President Vladimir Putin has Washington’s proposals on his desk. “There is only one individual who from the Russian side can determine what Moscow does or does not do,” Price said. “His reaction, his response is the response that matters most to us.”
US: UKRAINE THINKS NEW RUSSIAN INVASION IS ‘INEVITABLE’
ALSO TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets with Canada’s Defense Minister Anita Anand at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
HARSH WORDS AT UN: It wasn’t quite an Adlai Stevenson moment, but the confrontation between the U.S. and Russian ambassadors to the United Nations yesterday had some of the flavor of the classic face-off in 1962, when Stevenson told Soviet representative Valerian Zorin he would wait “until hell freezes over” for an answer to whether Russian missiles were in Cuba.
At a stormy session of the U.N. Security Council, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia accused the U.S. of “whipping up tensions” and bringing “pure Nazis” to power in Ukraine. “You are almost pulling for this,” Nebenzia said to U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield. “You want it to happen. You’re waiting for it to happen as if you want to make your words become a reality.”
“Let me be clear: There are no plans to weaken Russia, as claimed by our Russian colleague today,” said Thomas-Greenfield in response. “The threats of aggression on the border of Ukraine — yes, on its border — is provocative. Our recognition of the facts on the ground is not provocative.”
“The provocation is from Russia, not from us or other members of the council,” she said. “I say to Russia simply this: Your actions will speak for themselves.”
“We have made clear our commitment to the path of diplomacy. I hope our Russian colleagues will also choose this path.”
HAPPENING THURSDAY: Top Biden administration officials are expected to brief Congress on Feb. 3 on the latest state of play as Russia shows no willingness to pull back any of its forces massed along the Ukrainian border.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines are all scheduled to brief lawmakers in a closed, classified session.
Senators will be briefed in the morning and the House in the afternoon.
RUSSIAN BUILDUP CONTINUES: “We continue to see, even over the course of the weekend, additional Russian ground forces move in, again, in Belarus and around the border with Ukraine,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby at Monday’s briefing.
“These are combined arms capable forces. So, it’s not just infantry, for instance, artillery, it’s air defense,” Kirby said, which gives Russian President Vladimir Putin an expanding list of options should he decide to take military action.
“We have seen increasing naval activity in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic by Russian fleet vessels. And we’re watching that pretty closely,” Kirby said. “They are exercising at sea. They are clearly increasing the capabilities they have at sea should they need it.”
“He’s got a full range of military capabilities available to him,” Kirby said. “He continues to create more options for himself from a military perspective. Again, we want him to see him exercise a diplomatic option, which, oh, by the way, is also still open to him.”
STATE DEPARTMENT TELLS FAMILY MEMBERS OF GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES TO LEAVE BELARUS
QATAR ‘MAJOR NON-NATO ALLY’: During his meeting with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the White House on Monday, President Joe Biden announced he’s designating Qatar a major non-NATO ally.
“Qatar is a good friend and a reliable partner,” Biden said. “I’m notifying Congress that I will designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally to reflect the importance of the relationship. It’s long overdue.”
The designation will usher in “a new era of partnership,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon, where Tamim went after his White House visit. “This cooperation will allow our defense relationships with partners like Qatar to continue to grow stronger.”
THIS IS ALMOST ANTI-NEWS: A year ago, it was big news when a senior government official or world leader got COVID. If you’re like me, you knew few people personally who were sick with the infection. But these days, it seems everybody is getting the highly transmissible omicron variant, which for the vaccinated and boosted typically results in a mild, weeklong case of flu-like symptoms.
At the Pentagon, several senior leaders have had it, including Austin and Milley. The latest case is Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro.
“This morning I tested positive for COVID-19. I returned from official travel last Friday afternoon and my most recent negative tests were prior to my travel on the 21st and again on the morning of the 28th,” Del Toro said in a statement. “I am following my physician’s instructions and will quarantine for the next five days at a minimum in accordance with CDC guidelines. During this time, I will attend key meetings and discussions virtually and when necessary, the Honorable Meredith Berger, performing the duties of Under Secretary of the Navy, will represent me during my physical absence.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: UN cites ‘credible allegations’ that Taliban have killed 100 from old regime
Washington Examiner: Afghan refugees on three military bases down to 7,600
Washington Examiner: ISIS prison raid a ‘big wake-up call’ on terror group’s capabilities
Washington Examiner: Ukraine accuses Russian military of using drone to attack troops
Washington Examiner: US: Ukraine thinks new Russian invasion is ‘inevitable’
Washington Examiner: State Department tells family members of government employees to leave Belarus
Washington Examiner: North Korea says it tested missile that can hit US bases in Guam and Japan
Washington Examiner: Republicans demand release of report on agents Biden accused of whipping migrants
Wall Street Journal: U.S., U.K. Target Putin’s Inner Circle
Stars and Stripes: U.S. Forces In Europe Could Be Deployed To Eastern Europe Soon As Russia-NATO Tensions Increase, Pentagon Says
AP: Bomb shelters, guerrilla war: Building Ukraine’s resistance
AP: Taliban raised on war bring a heavy hand to security role
The Atlantic: The Betrayal: America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan added moral injury to military failure
Washington Post: West warns time is growing short for Iran nuclear deal, as talks pause again
Breaking Defense: Pentagon’s Cybersecurity Tests Aren’t Realistic, Tough Enough: Report
Air Force Magazine: Kendall: Air Force Still Digging Itself Out of ‘Readiness Hole’
Air Force Magazine: F-15EX Fires First Missile Successfully
Air Force Magazine: Lockheed Selects Alabama and Georgia as Production Sites If It Wins Next Tanker
Task & Purpose: Air Force General Openly Shares his Mental Health Appointment: ‘Warrior Heart. No Stigma’
Washington Post: John Singlaub, audacious warrior who waged private battle against communism, dies at 100
19fortyfive.com: Can an Independent Ukraine Exist Alongside Russia?
19fortyfive.com: The Russian Military: 4 Myths That Need to Die
19fortyfive.com: China and Russia Love That Congress Can’t Pass a Defense Budget
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: How To Get North Korea To Negotiate Over Its Nuclear Weapons And Missiles
Calendar
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 1
9 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group virtual conversation with Gen. Edward Daly, commander, Army Materiel Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion on issues that include detecting, preventing and responding to cyber attacks, cloud security, adoption of cyber best practices, with Neal Ziring, the technical director of the NSA Cybersecurity Directorate; and Larry Hanauer, INSA vice president https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-conversation
10 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “World Stage: Crisis in Ukraine,” with Estonia Prime Minister Kaja Kallas https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
10 a.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “How the United Kingdom is Decarbonizing Defense and Adapting to Climate Change,” with retired British Army Lt. Gen. Richard Nugee, climate change and sustainability strategy lead in the UK Ministry of Defense https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum: “Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad,” with retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz and Alexandra Evans, of the RAND Corporation, co-authors of Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile https://mitchellaerospacepower.org
4 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “A Turkish-Israeli Thaw?” with Blaise Misztal, JINSA vice president for policy; Alan Makovsky, JINSA Eastern Mediterranean policy project member; and retired Israeli Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, JINSA fellow https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 2
9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Cyber Activism: The Secret Role of Elves in Countering Hybrid Operations,” Nad’a Kovalcikova, senior analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies’ Transnational Security Portfolio; Daniel Hegedus, visiting fellow at GMFUS; and Adela Kleckova, fellow at GMFUS https://www.gmfus.org/event/cyber-activism
10 a.m. CVC-200 Capitol Visitor Center — Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees closed hearing on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan,” with secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin CLOSED, no webcast https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual book discussion on “Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation,” with author Vipin Narang, professor of nuclear security and political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Ariel Levite, former principal deputy director general for policy at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission; Eliza Gheorghe, assistant professor at Bilkent University; and Fiona Cunningham, assistant professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania https://carnegieendowment.org
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion with Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander of U.S. Transportation Command. https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-gen-van-ovost
2 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “Keeping the Spotlight on Hong Kong,” Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.; Dennis Kwok, senior fellow at Harvard University; and Nathan Law, former legislator and democratic activist https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/keeping-the-spotlight-hong-kong
2 p.m. — SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. virtual discussion: “Ukraine Crisis: Implications for the International System and U.S. Leadership,” with Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Steven Pifer, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Arms Control and Non-proliferation Initiative; Kilic Kanat, research director at SETA; and Kadir Ustun, executive director of SETA https://setadc.org/events/
2:30 p.m. 562 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Russia’s Assault on Ukraine and the International Order: Assessing and Bolstering the Western Response,” with Michael Carpenter, U.S. permanent representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe; Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe; retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, chair in strategic studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, vice president of the U.S. Institute of Peace https://www.youtube.com/user/HelsinkiCommission
4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual event: “Ukraine in Crisis: How the United States Can Support its Ally,” with Sens. Jeanne Shaheen D-N.H., and Rob Portman R-Ohio, who led a bipartisan delegation to Ukraine in January. https://www.csis.org/events/ukraine-crisis-how-united-states-can-support-its-ally
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 3
9 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual MEI-CENTCOM conference with Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of CENTCOM, https://www.mei.edu/events/2nd-mei-centcom-annual-conference
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Russia-Ukraine conflict and implications to Turkey,” with Debra Cagan, energy fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network’s Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and Gulf Initiative; Yevgeniya Gaber, senior fellow at Carleton University’s Center in Modern Turkish Studies; and Can Kasapoglu, director of the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Research Security and Defense Studies Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/russia-ukraine-conflict
10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Poland’s Leadership of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in a Time of Crisis,” with Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss.; and Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau https://www.youtube.com/user/HelsinkiCommission
10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Ideas and Priorities for NATO’s Future – Presenting the NATO Shadow Strategic Concept,” with former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow, fellow at the Atlantic Council; Julian Lindley-French, visiting research fellow at National Defense University and founder of the Alphen Group; and Nico Lange, defense analyst at the German Ministry of Defense https://www.gmfus.org/event/ideas-and-priorities-natos-future
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book launch: Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, with author Amy Zegart, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-spies-lies-and-algorithms
12 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “the dual threats from Russia and China and the importance of strengthening NATO,” with Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies a virtual discussion: “Turkey, Russia and the Struggle for Power in the Middle East and North Africa,” with Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “How the United States Can Help Defend Ukraine,” with former U.S. Army Europe Commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges; and Michael Doran, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2062-virtual-event
5 p.m. — Institute of World Politics virtual discussion: U.S. Diplomacy as a Force for Good,” with former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale, diplomatic fellow at the Wilson Center https://www.iwp.edu/events/webinar-u-s-diplomacy-as-a-force-for-good/
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 4
8 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Evolving Maritime Issues in the Indo-Pacific,” with Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; James Kraska, chair of the U.S. Naval War College Center for International Law; Raul Pedrozo, professor at the U.S. Naval War College Center for International Law; Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan; and Kathleen Walsh, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College https://www.stimson.org/event/evolving-maritime-issues
2 p.m. — Institute for Corean-American Studies virtual ICAS Winter Symposium on “The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security” with former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, chairman of the Foundation for American Security & Freedom. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/icas-winter-symposium-special-tickets-247390560827
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Negotiators have returned for consultations with their leadership to figure out whether they’re prepared to make the tough political decisions that have to be made now if we want to be in a position to secure that mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA. In other words, we will know sooner rather than later whether we are back in the JCPOA.”
A senior State Department official briefing reporters on Monday on the endgame for return to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
