SO WHAT IS THE PLAN? It’s not clear if Farah is disputing the specific number of troops or the whole idea that the U.S. is considering the deployment of some other number of additional forces to deter Iran.

John Rood, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy and Air Force Lt. Gen. David Allvin, director for strategy, plans and policy for the joint staff are both scheduled to provide congressional testimony this morning on “strategic threats” facing the U.S.

“I look forward to hearing tomorrow in Senate Armed Services why the Pentagon reportedly wants 14,000 MORE troops in the Middle East, after sending 14,000 already this year alone,” Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley tweeted yesterday. “Is the Pentagon preparing for a land war?”

Yesterday Rood told reporters “We also continue to see indications, and for obvious reasons I won’t go into the details, that potential Iranian aggression could occur,” according to Reuters.

IRAN THREAT RISING: Meanwhile the New York Times is reporting that U.S. intelligence officials say Iran is building up “a hidden arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles in Iraq,” which it says poses “a threat to American allies and partners in the region, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, and could endanger American troops.”

“American intelligence officials first warned about new Iranian missiles in Iraq last year, and Israel launched an airstrike aimed at destroying the hidden Iranian weaponry,” the Times reports. “But since then, American officials have said the threat is growing, with new ballistic missiles being secretly moved in.”

UNDETERRED: In a series of interviews last month, the U.S. Central Command chief, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, said Iran could be planning a major attack on the scale of the recent missile and drone assault on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields.

“My judgment is that it is very possible they will attack again,” McKenzie told reporters traveling with him to the region. “It’s the trajectory and the direction that they’re on.”

HAPPY TO PAY: At the just-concluded NATO leaders meeting in London, President Trump made a point of saying that he has no problem sending U.S. troops to protect allies, such as Saudi Arabia, so long as those allies pick up the tab.

“You know, Saudi Arabia — we moved more troops there. And they’re paying us billions of dollars. OK? You never heard of that before. You’ve never heard of that in your whole life. We moved troops and we paid nothing,” Trump said during his appearance with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. “We just moved a contingent of troops, and they’re paying us billions of dollars and they’re happy to do so,” Trump said. “Billions of dollars. It’s already in the bank.”

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Following this week’s Senate testimony by top military leaders about appalling living conditions at privatized housing at U.S. military bases, executives of the companies who provide the housing under U.S. contract are being called to answer questions by the House Armed Services Committee.

“Maybe some of the CEOs need to move into some military housing over the holidays, what do you guys think about that?” Arizona Republican Sen. Martha McSally said Tuesday. “See how they feel about trying to figure out where they’re going to put up their Christmas tree or where they’re going to be serving Christmas dinner.”

Today’s 1 p.m. hearing will feature testimony from John Picerne, founder & CEO, Corvias Group, LLC; John Ehle, president, Hunt Military Communities; Denis Hickey, CEO, Lendlease Americas, Richard Taylor, President, Balfour Beatty Communities, and Jarl Bliss, President, Lincoln Military Housing.

At Tuesday’s Senate hearing Chairman Jim Inhofe railed against the companies. “I have to ask, when is enough enough?” he said. “The time for talk is over … If these companies can’t get the job done, you owe it to the military families to find a company who will.”

SHIPYARD SHORTFALL: A new Government Accountability Office report highlights the critical shortage of ship repair and maintenance facilities that is crippling the ability of the U.S. Navy to keep its fleet afloat.

“The Navy continues to face persistent and substantial maintenance delays that hinder its ability to stay ready for operations and training,” the GAO reports. “Since fiscal year 2014, Navy ships have spent over 33,700 more days in maintenance than expected. Insufficient shipyard capacity and a shortage of skilled workers are among the contributing factors we identified.”

Georgia Republican Sen. David Perdue opened a Senate Armed Services subcommittee hearing on the problem yesterday by noting that in fiscal year 2019, “maintenance delays alone resulted in the Navy losing the equivalent of 19 surface ships. Of our 292-ship fleet, 19 were not available to commanders.”

“Although we’ve made steady progress, there’s still much more to be done,” testified James Geurts, the Navy’s assistant secretary for research, development and acquisition, who pointed the finger back at Congress.

“The biggest threat to achieving the necessary sustained performance is budget instability. In 2019, Congress provided the Navy an authorization and appropriation that was on time for the first time in 10 years,” Geurts said. “This year, although we’re well into the first quarter of fiscal year ’20, we’re on our second continuing resolution. From a ship maintenance standpoint, this has already negatively impacted our planning and contracting for ship maintenance.”

PEARL HARBOR SHOOTING: Two civilians have been killed and a third wounded after an active duty sailor opened fire on them at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii before taking his own life, according to Navy authorities.

“The shooter has been identified as a male U.S. Navy Sailor assigned to the USS Columbia (SSN 771). The incident took place at approximately 2:30 p.m. in the vicinity of the shipyard’s Dry Docks 2 and 3,” said Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam on its official Twitter account. “Base security, Navy investigative services and other agencies are investigating the incident. The names of the victims will not be released until the next of kin have been notified.”

No motive for the attack has been established.

RESTARTING TALIBAN TALKS: In his visit to U.S. troops in Afghanistan on Thanksgiving, President Trump announced the U.S. was talking to the Taliban again in an effort to secure a ceasefire that would allow for the withdrawal of some U.S. troops and for peace talks to begin with the Afghan government.

At the time, the Taliban and Afghan officials professed ignorance of any new initiatives, but now the job falls to Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad, the State Department’s special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, to make it so.

Khalilzad was in Kabul yesterday for consultations with the Afghan government before heading to Doha, Qatar to restart the talks that Trump declared “dead” in September after the Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack in the Afghan capital that killed 12 people, including a U.S. soldier.

“Khalilzad will meet with Afghan government representatives and other Afghan leaders to follow up on President Trump’s recent visit and to discuss how best to support accelerated efforts to get all parties to intra-Afghan negotiations,” said a State Department statement. “In Doha, Ambassador Khalilzad will rejoin talks with the Taliban to discuss steps that could lead to intra-Afghan negotiations and a peaceful settlement of the war, specifically a reduction in violence that leads to a ceasefire.”

BAD IDEAS IN NATIONAL SECURITY: The Center for Strategic and International Studies is out with it latest series of short essays on the theme “Bad Ideas in National Security.” The commentaries written by various by CSIS and outside scholars feature some “not too obvious bad ideas,” along with some that would seem to be no-brainers.

For example: “Integrating Artificial Intelligence with Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications,” in which Bryce Farabaugh writes, “Integrating artificial intelligence with nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) to create an automated strategic response system underestimates AI’s potential to inadvertently precipitate a catastrophic mistake.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: ‘A very big move’: US heartened that NATO issues its first warning about Chinese influence

Washington Examiner: ‘The new disrupter:’ Macron replaces Trump as NATO bogeyman

Washington Examiner: ‘Way out of line’: US ambassador to NATO drubs Emmanuel Macron for ‘go-it-alone’ attitude

Reuters: U.S. Military Completes Pullback From Northeast Syria, Esper Says

Defense News: Trump To Seek $250M In New Lethal Aid To Ukraine

Washington Post: Amazon cloud boss chides Pentagon for awarding Microsoft lucrative contract

Reuters: South Korea, China Agree To Step Up Exchanges To Re-Set Ties After Missile Defence Row

Washington Post: Kim Jong Un is back on his white horse, as North Korea flags a big decision

Yonhap News Agency: U.S. expert calls for ‘tailored sanctions relief’ on path to N.K. denuclearization

Yonhap News Agency: U.S. Has Never Abandoned Military Options For North Korea – Pentagon Official

Military Times: ISIS Is Taking A Beating In Afghanistan Setting The Stage For Potential U.S. Troop Withdrawal

AP: US Navy seizes suspected Iranian missile parts set for Yemen

Washington Examiner: Marine charged with smuggling guns into Haiti to trounce ‘thugs’ and become president

USNI News: CNO Gilday Releases New, Simplified Command Guidance to Fleet

Navy Times: 5 Takeaways: The U.S. Navy’s New Top Officer Issues His Orders

Calendar

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 5

8:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Restoring Civil-Military Relations,” with House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash.; and Mackenzie Eaglen, resident fellow at AEI. Livestream at http://www.american.com/watch/aei-livestream

8:45 a.m. 701 N Fairfax St., Alexandria -— Defense Strategies Institute holds its 2019 Space Resiliency Summit,” with Derek Tournear, director of the Space Development Agency; and Air Force Col. Eric Felt, director of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate. http://space.dsigroup.org

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen. — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing “Strategic Threats, Ongoing Challenges, and National Defense Strategy Implementation,” with John Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy; and Air Force Lt. Gen. David Allvin, director for strategy, plans and policy, joint staff. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

9:30 a.m. 779 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion on “NATO, Transatlantic Security, and the Future of Arms Control,” with former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller; and former Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, president of CEIP http://carnegieendowment.org/

12 p.m. 1800 K St., N.W. — Korea Economic Institute of America discussion on “Shifting the Burden: The U.S.-Korea Alliance Amid Washington’s New Approach to Military Cost-Sharing,” with former South Korean Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Song Min-soon; former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens, president and CEO of KEI; retired Army Gen. Walter “Skip” Sharp, former commander of United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command and U.S. Forces Korea; James Kim, senior research fellow in the Asan Institute for Policy Studies’ Center for Public Opinion Research; and Kyle Ferrier, fellow and academic affairs director at KEI. http://www.keia.org/event/shifting-burden

1 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness: “Privatized Housing: Are Conditions Improving for Our Military Families?” with John Picerne, founder & CEO Corvias Group, LLC; John Ehle, president, Hunt Military Communities; Denis Hickey, CEO Lendlease Americas, Richard Taylor, President, Balfour Beatty Communities, and Jarl Bliss, President, Lincoln Military Housing. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 6

8:30 a.m. 1624 Crescent Pl. N.W. — Meridian International Center, the University of Michigan’s Weiser Diplomacy Center and the National Security Policy Center forum on defense and diplomacy in Afghanistan, with Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas; Lisa Curtis, senior director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council; Afghan Ambassador to the United States Roya Rahmani; former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Anne Patterson; retired Army Gen. John Nicholson, former commander of the Resolute Support Mission; Javid Ali, policymaker in residence at the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy and former senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council; Laurel Miller, director of the Crisis Group’s Asia Program and former acting special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the State Department; Peter Bergen, national security analyst at CNN; Melanne Verveer, executive director of the Georgetown University Institute for Women, Peace and Security; and Stuart Holliday, president and CEO of the Meridian International Center

12 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies forum on “The Crisis that Has Defied Five Presidents: Covering the North Korean Nuclear Program for Three Decades,” with David Sanger, national security correspondent for the New York Times; and Yonho Kim, associate director of the GWU Institute for Korean Studies http://elliott.gwu.edu

12:15 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — The American Security Project discussion on “A New American Message: A Discussion on U.S. Rhetoric,” with former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel; Mohamed Younis, editor-in-chief of Gallup News; Dokhi Fassihian, executive director of Reporters Without Borders; and Matthew Wallin, director of research on public diplomacy and strategic communications at ASP. https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 10

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel Hearing: “Diversity in Recruiting and Retention: Increasing Diversity in the Military – What the Military Services are Doing,” with Army Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands, deputy chief of staff, G-1; Vice Adm. John Nowell, chief of naval personnel; Air Force Lt. Gen Brian Kelly, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services; and Marine Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco, deputy commandant for manpower and reserve affairs. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 11

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Policy in Syria and the Broader Region,” with Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 13

9 a.m. 1301 K St. N.W. — Washington Post Live conversation with former Defense Secretary retired Gen. Jim Mattis with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius.