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NORTH KOREA TALKS FALTER: It was clear Friday, when President Trump abruptly canceled Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s planned trip to Pyongyang, that something had undercut the denuclearization talks with North Korea. Last night the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin reported the surprise move came after a top North Korean official allegedly sent a “secret letter” that convinced Pompeo and Trump the visit would be a waste of time. “Pompeo received the letter from Kim Yong Chol, vice chairman of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee, on Friday morning, and showed it to Trump in the White House, two senior administration officials confirmed,” Rogin wrote. “The exact contents of the message are unclear, but it was sufficiently belligerent that Trump and Pompeo decided to call off Pompeo’s journey, where he was set to introduce his newly announced special envoy, Stephen Biegun, to his North Korean counterparts.” TRUMP’S FRIDAY TWEETS: Later Friday in a series of tweets Trump admitted the U.S. is “not making sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” He didn’t blame North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, instead faulting China, who he said was reacting to his “much tougher trading stance.” “I do not believe they are helping with the process of denuclearization as they once were,” Trump tweeted. “Secretary Pompeo looks forward to going to North Korea in the near future, most likely after our Trading relationship with China is resolved,” said Trump’s final tweet. “In the meantime I would like to send my warmest regards and respect to Chairman Kim. I look forward to seeing him soon!” AFTER YOU. NO, AFTER YOU: The impasse, according to multiple reports, is that North Korea wants a peace treaty up front that would officially end the 1950-53 Korean War. But the U.S. remains insistent that before the North can be rewarded it must declare its nuclear weapons and show that it is making verifiable, irreversible moves to dismantle its weapons and missile programs. CLASSIC NORTH KOREA: Longtime Korea watchers say the failure of Kim Jong Un to live up to promises he made in face-to-face talks with Trump and Pompeo was entirely predictable, especially given the vague language in the June Singapore declaration, which committed North Korea only “to work toward” complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. “The North Koreans are not offering to give up their nuclear weapons. What the North Koreans think is that their nuclear weapons have brought the United States to the table, and that if they are willing to entertain the aspiration that someday those weapons won’t be needed, that then the United States will move to make relations better,” Jeffrey Lewis, a Korea expert with the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with NPR’s On the Media. “The U.S. has the opposite idea, right. Give up the weapons first and then we get better relations.” Lewis, director of the institute’s East Asia Nonproliferation Program, is also the author of a novel that imagines how missteps and bad luck results in a nuclear exchange with North Korea. The book is written like a 9/11-style after-action report on how it all went wrong, titled The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States. “That gap is not bridgeable, someone has to change. So I think for the foreseeable future that gap is going to persist, and the Trump administration is going to paper over it,” Lewis predicts. “What I worry about is the day it becomes clear North Korea is not giving up its nuclear weapons. What does the Trump administration do? The best option would be to admit North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear weapons, admit that the threats of 2017 were counterproductive, be realistic that we are going to have to learn to live at least for a while with North Korea’s nuclear weapons, and then work on a totally different basis.” But Lewis admits that doesn’t sound like the Trump we know. “What seems more likely is that President Trump will turn on Kim Jong Un in the same way he had turned on other world leaders who have disappointed him, and then he’ll take the car keys away from Pompeo and give them to Bolton.” TUESDAYS WITH MATTIS: According to the Post account, national security adviser John Bolton believes any concessions now, including face-to-face meetings, would be signs of weakness. Yet Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who is scheduled for one of his regular lunch sessions with Trump today, is said to oppose a peace declaration on the grounds it could undermine U.S. military preparedness on the Korean Peninsula. Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY — MUST SEE TV: Mattis, along with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, are scheduled to make an extremely rare joint appearance in the Pentagon Briefing Room this morning to take questions from reporters. Such briefings with the two top Pentagon officials were commonplace in past administrations, but the notoriously camera-shy Mattis has eschewed the custom since he took over in January 2017, with the exception of appearances after major events such as last April’s Syria strikes. Pentagon officials say Mattis will have a “topper,” opening remarks, but there are no major policy pronouncements planned. The 10 a.m. news conference will be streamed live here. Afterward, Mattis will scoot across the Potomac River for his lunch with the president, and then rush back to the Pentagon in time to welcome Indonesian Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu at 2:30 p.m. INHOFE SAYS McCAIN SHARES BLAME: Just as Trump reversed his decision yesterday afternoon and lowered flags to half-staff to honor the late Sen. John McCain, Sen. Jim Inhofe and the Senate were coming back into session to work on nominations. The Oklahoma Republican and senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee told reporters the dust-up was partly McCain’s fault, CNN reported. “Frankly, I think John McCain is partially to blame for that because he is very outspoken. He disagreed with the president in certain areas and wasn’t too courteous about it,” Inhofe said. “So that’s one thing about John McCain and the president – both very strong-willed people.” Inhofe also took to the Senate floor and delivered a speech in tribute to McCain, calling him a hero and remembering how the two sometimes butted heads. “He wasn’t always the most lovable person to be around, but he was a fighter and never shied away from a good fight. He was passionate for the causes that he believed in, a strong advocate for human rights and democratic values standing up for oppressed people around the world,” Inhofe said. McCAIN’S REPLACEMENT ON SASC: McCain’s last and perhaps greatest roles in the Senate were chairman of the Armed Services Committee and top Republican foil to Trump who was willing to buck the party line. Now, he is likely to be replaced as leader of the key defense committee by Inhofe, a staunch party conservative and pro-Trump Republican. But it remains unclear when a new chairman will be formally named. The committee was not yet ready to discuss chairmanship on Monday. Armed Services staff and Inhofe’s office said they had no comment on the chairmanship. Inhofe is the senior Republican on Armed Services and has been effectively running the committee since McCain left Washington in December to seek treatment at home in Arizona for cancer. Majority members must vote in his successor under the Senate rules, according to the office of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Any move to elect a new chairman is unlikely to take place until after McCain’s memorial services in Arizona and Washington, D.C., and his burial service on Sunday. IRAN’S PRESIDENT WEAKENED: Not since the hard-line government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has an Iranian president found himself hauled before parliament to answer questions about how badly the country is being run. But that’s where Iranian President Hassan Rouhani found himself today, as he tried to convince the parliament that he has a plan to pull the country out of an economic tailspin. Rouhani blamed Trump’s pullout from the nuclear deal and re-imposition of sanctions for worsening Iran’s economic woes, including rampant unemployment, sky-high inflation and a steep plunge in the value of its currency, according to the AP. Meanwhile, Pompeo tweeted out a warning last night that Iran should not think seriously about carrying out its threat to block international shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz. “The Islamic Republic of Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz,” he tweeted. “The Strait is an international waterway. The United States will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation and free flow of commerce in international waterways.” CHANGES IN AFGHANISTAN: This weekend the top U.S.commander in Afghanistan Gen. John Nicholson will formally relinquish command to Gen. Scott Miller during a traditional “change of command” at Resolute Support headquarters in Kabul. Nicholson was one of the longest-serving commanders of U.S. and NATO forces, having begun his tour in March 2016. The switch comes as Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has seen his three top security officials, including his national security adviser, resign after weeks of attacks by the Taliban, including an assault on Ghazni, which killed more than 300 people on both sides. PEACE TALKS DELAYED: Meanwhile, Russia has agreed to postpone peace talks with the Taliban that had been set for one week from today in Moscow. Both the U.S. and Afghanistan had declined an invitation to attend. A statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry said in phone consultation between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ghani that the Afghan president supported “in principle the idea of a Moscow meeting,” but asked for a postponement “due to the need to develop Afghanistan’s consolidated position on this issue, taking into account the ongoing personnel changes in the leadership of the Afghan ruling bloc. “An agreement was reached to jointly work out a new date for the meeting through diplomatic channels,” the statement said. SCHEDULE OF McCAIN EVENTS: McCain’s office has released a detailed schedule of the memorial services celebrating the life of the late senator. Wednesday: McCain will lie in state at the Arizona State Capitol. At 9:50 a.m., the motorcade will arrive at the Arizona State Capitol. Cindy McCain and family will be greeted at the Capitol Plaza by Gov. Doug Ducey and first lady Angela Ducey. A private ceremony in the rotunda will begin at 10 a.m. Speakers include Ducey, Sen. Jon Kyl, Rep. Jim Kolbe and Sen. Jeff Flake. Thursday: A memorial service will be held 10 a.m. at the North Phoenix Baptist Church in Phoenix. In addition to family, friends and local officials, about 1,000 seats have been made available to the public. In addition to remarks from former Vice President Joseph Biden, McCain’s son Andrew and daughter Bridget will speak. Thursday: McCain will arrive at Joint Base Andrews, Md., at 7:30 p.m. Friday: McCain will lie in state in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol beginning at 11 a.m. Speakers include Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Paul Ryan and Vice President Mike Pence. Saturday: At 8:30 a.m., McCain will be moved by motorcade to Washington National Cathedral. The motorcade will pause at the Vietnam Veterans Memorial where Cindy McCain will lay a ceremonial wreath honoring lives lost during the Vietnam War. A memorial service will take place at Washington National Cathedral at 10. Among the speakers: Meghan and Sidney McCain, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, Sen. Lindsey Graham, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, Henry Kissinger and former President George W. Bush. Sunday: A private memorial service will be held in the U.S. Naval Academy Chapel in Annapolis, Md., at 2 p.m. Among the speakers are sons Douglas McCain and Lt. John S. “Jack” McCain IV. Also retired Gen. David Petraeus and longtime friend and co-author Mark Salter. THE RUNDOWN New York Times: U.S. Commander Urges More Transparency in Yemen Strike on School Bus Defense One: ISIS Is Ready For a Resurgence Foreign Policy: The Incredible Shrinking Defense Secretary Task and Purpose: Pentagon ‘Gravely Concerned’ Russian Propaganda Signals Impending Syrian Chemical Attack Defense News: How the US has ‘learned a lot’ about Russian capabilities in Syria Breaking Defense: Can Army Futures Command Overcome Decades Of Dysfunction? Business Insider: 10 of John McCain’s best quotes on courage, happiness, and character Military Times: ‘The homeland is no longer a sanctuary’ amid rising near-peer threats, NORTHCOM commander says Daily Beast: Congress Cut Off This Chinese Surveillance Firm, So Now It’s Turning to K Street War on the Rocks: McRaven’s Message, Leadership, and the Profession of Arms |
CalendarTUESDAY | AUG. 28 7:30 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd. iFest 2018. ndia.org 8 a.m. 2121 Crystal Dr. Electronics Division Meeting. ndia.org 10:15 a.m. Foundation for Defense of Democracies National Security Summit (invite only). defenddemocracy.org WEDNESDAY | AUG. 29 7:30 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd. iFest 2018. ndia.org 8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Army Secretary Mark Esper. 10 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The U.S.-India 2+2: A Conversation with Randall Schriver, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs. carnegieendowment.org 12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Syria: Obstacles to Reconstruction and Stability. hudson.org THURSDAY | AUG. 30 10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy: Signaling Foreign Policy Restraint. stimson.org |
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