JUDGE STAYS TRUMP’S BORDER ORDER: A federal judge in California has ruled that President Trump cannot unilaterally deny the right of migrants who cross the border illegally to request asylum. U.S. District Judge Jon Tigar issued the temporary restraining order after the American Civil Liberties Union and the Center for Constitutional Rights sued, arguing that U.S. law protects the right to request asylum once migrants are on U.S. soil, no matter how they arrived.

SPACE FORCE GETS A NEW PRICE TAG: When Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said in September that the president’s signature Space Force proposal would cost about $13 billion over five years, Todd Harrison called it an inflated estimate and an example of “malicious compliance.” Now, the defense budget analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies has his own detailed cost estimate: $1.5 billion to $2.7 billion in new funding over five years. That is a small drop in the defense budget bucket, mostly because 96 percent of what is needed for a Space Force is already part of current Pentagon spending.

“Most of this is just a simple matter of reorganization and whether or not you think that is worth it. The added cost is a handful of F-35s or less than the annual cost of the [Pentagon’s first-ever] audit,” Harrison said. “So, I don’t think that cost should actually be that much of a factor in their decisions. I think a bigger factor is whether or not you think it is needed, and I mean that’s what the debate should be about.”

Now, all eyes are on the Pentagon. Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan said last week that the building is still working through its own cost estimate to send to Congress in February. That figure could be lower than $5 billion, Shanahan told reporters, but it remains unclear what the figure might include. “One of the golden rules in budget analysis is never rely on budget data that is presented orally. Until he’s written it down, we don’t really know for sure what he meant,” Harrison said.

THREE SCENARIOS: Harrison lays out three potential scenarios for space reform that the Pentagon could follow, including an earlier proposal pushed by the House Armed Services Committee and two Space Force proposals that fit Trump’s vision of a brand-new service and have bigger workforces and budgets:

• Space Corps: A new service inside the Department of the Air Force would ramp up Pentagon spending by $1.5 billion over five years. It would require transferring about 25,600 troops and civilians from the Air Force to the new corps and adding 1,700 to handle headquarters and overhead work. The total annual budget for the corps would be $11 billion.
• Space Force-Lite: The middle-road choice would cost $2 billion over five years and require drawing 33,000 troops and civilians from the Air Force, Army and Navy as well as adding 2,600 new personnel. The total annual budget would ring in at $13 billion.
• Space Force-Heavy: This whole-package plan would require transferring 45,400 troops and civilians from the other services. It would cost $2.7 billion in new funding over the five years or bump up current spending by about $550 million annually. The total annual base budget would be $22 billion, according to Harrison.

A BILLION DOWN THE DRAIN: It may sound crazy, but in the world of the Pentagon, a billion dollars amounts to the proverbial rounding error. Consider for example a GAO report issued yesterday that concludes the Navy has spent $1.5 billion since 2008 to support submarines that it could not deploy because Navy shipyards are unable to keep up with maintenance demands for attack submarines.

“For example, the USS Boise has been docked for over 2 years while waiting for maintenance — with the Navy paying to support it,” the report finds. The Government Accountability Office notes the Navy has begun to hire more workers at its shipyards and, in some cases, has shifted more work to private shipyards. The report recommends the Navy “assess how to best use public and private shipyards to achieve the full benefit of the nation’s investment in these submarines.”

HERITAGE ALL IN ON NEW AF TRAINER: The Heritage Foundation is out with a new assessment urging the Air Force to go all in on its new next-generation trainer, arguing TX the contract with Boeing/SAAB TX contract should expand to cover annual training for 1,500 student pilots, as well as fighter lead-in training.

“The current TX purchase plan limits initial acquisitions to just 350 aircraft — 88 below the number currently filling the advanced training and IFF demand. Numbers matter here and limiting this purchase order based on assumed higher aircraft availability rates and projected programmed efficiencies may not be in the Air Force’s best interest for several reasons,” writes Senior Research Fellow John “JV” Venable, a 25-year Air Force veteran.

“The time for the next generation trainer is long overdue — and delays in awarding the TX contract over the past year exacerbated the need,” Venable argues. “The United States Air Force should include significant financial incentives — and penalties — in the TX contract with Boeing to ensure it delivers this critical capability on budget and on time because the need is great and long overdue.”

TRUMP RENEWS ATTACK ON MCRAVEN: The controversy over Trump’s criticism of retired Adm. Bill McRaven as a “Hillary Clinton fan” and “Obama backer” over the weekend was supercharged Monday when he took aim at the McRaven-led 2011 Pakistan raid that killed the terrorist mastermind behind 9/11. “Of course we should have captured Osama Bin Laden long before we did. I pointed him out in my book just BEFORE the attack on the World Trade Center. President Clinton famously missed his shot. We paid Pakistan Billions of Dollars & they never told us he was living there,” Trump tweeted.

Rob O’Neill, the former Navy SEAL who claims to have fired the shots that killed bin Laden, took issue with Trump’s assertion. “The mission to get bin Laden was bipartisan. We all wanted to get him as soon as we could,” tweeted O’Neill, who once dined with Trump. Retired Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal also differed with the president on McRaven. “I know Bill McRaven and was honored to serve beside him. I know just a few years ago he was personally going out on counterterrorism raids with his forces and the president is simply wrong. He is uninformed and is pushing an idea that I think is not helpful,” McChrystal, who was ousted as commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan after making disparaging comments about the Obama administration, told CNN.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon had a much more reserved response to the controversy. “Retired Adm. McRaven is a private citizen and is guaranteed the freedom of speech and expression, and free to share his opinion. Here at the Department of Defense, we are laser-focused on defending the nation,” Pentagon spokesman Col. Rob Manning said.

TRUMP PONDERS WARZONE VISIT: In his interview with Fox News Sunday President Trump said he may visit U.S. troops in a war zone soon, but refused to discuss details for security reasons. Trump has come under criticism for failing to visit troops.

The Washington Post is reporting this morning that one reason Trump hasn’t done a troop visit yet is that he fears for his own safety. “He’s never been interested in going,” the Post quoted a former senior White House official as saying. “He’s afraid of those situations. He’s afraid people want to kill him,” said the official, who was said to have discussed the matter with the president..

Wait for it. This is the kind of report Trump will likely dismiss as more fake news, as he did with another Washington Post story that described Trump as brooding after election defeats and his Paris trip.

“The Washington Post, they never even called me, nobody ever calls me,” he told Fox’s Chris Wallace. “I don’t even think they have sources I think they just make it up like it’s fiction.

MCSALLY’S NARROW PATH TO SENATE: Former A-10 squadron commander and aviation pioneer, Rep. Martha McSally may yet end up in the U.S. Senate, despite her razor-thin loss to Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in the Nov. 6 election.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has reportedly had conversations with Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey about selecting McSally to replace Sen. Jon Kyl, who was tapped by Ducey after Sen. John McCain’s death this summer. But at this point, it’s not clear whether Kyl will step down before he finishes filling out McCain term, which runs through 2020.

“The governor is hopeful that Kyl will continue to serve in the appointed Senate seat through 2020,” said Daniel Ruiz, a senior adviser for Ducey. “At this point, we would not speculate on a vacancy that does not exist.”

Kyl has told CNN last week that he regrets McSally didn’t make it in her election and said she would be “a very good member of the United States Senate, however she got there.” But Kyl added Ducey would make the final call on an appointment and said that his remarks about McSally “have nothing to do with any potential candidate to replace me.”

F-35 ‘ELEPHANT WALK’: It was quite a sight yesterday at Hill Air Force Base, Utah yesterday when the 388th and 419th Fighter Wings conducted a combat power exercise, known colloquially as an “Elephant Walk.” The exercise requires launched dozens of F-35A Lightning IIs within a condensed period of time.

Typically, the wings fly between 30-60 sorties in the course of a day. But during the exercise, they launched roughly the same number of sorties, but in 20 to 40-second intervals, with the planes massed on the flight lines. You can see a photo of the F-35s preparing to launch here, and videos of the combat exercise here.

THE RUNDOWN

Breaking Defense: Don’t Expect Any Trump Boost To Defense Spending

USA Today: One in five Army generals could not deploy for medical reasons in 2016, data show

Politico: Troops at U.S.-Mexican border to start coming home

Reuters: Clashes resume in Yemen’s Hodeidah after Houthis say open to truce

Air Force Magazine: Pentagon Report, Joint Chiefs Chairman Note Lack of Progress in Afghanistan

Task and Purpose: EXCLUSIVE: Leaked Document, Video Shows ISIS Fighter In Moments Before Navy SEAL Allegedly Stabbed Him

Business Insider: Argentina releases first images of the submarine San Juan — lost a year ago at 3,000 feet deep with all its crew

The Drive: First Images Of New VH-92 Marine One Helicopter Landing On White House Lawn

New York Times: Pakistan Angered by Trump’s Claim That It Does ‘Nothing’ for U.S.

Foreign Policy: U.S. Military Targets Growing Russian and Chinese Influence in Latin America

Air Force Times: Completion of US drone base in Niger to be delayed