WE MAY HAVE A SECDEF TODAY: The full Senate is set to vote today on the nomination of Lloyd Austin to be defense secretary, and all signs point to an easy confirmation for the former four-star Army general, who could be on the job at the Pentagon by the end of the day.
In back-to-back votes yesterday, the House and Senate both passed legislation granting Austin a waiver from the statutory requirement that retired officers wait seven years before qualifying to lead the Defense Department. Austin hung up his uniform four years ago.
The comfortable votes for the waiver — 69-27 in the Senate, 326-78 in the House — indicate Austin’s nomination should sail through, given that some senators, who opposed the waiver on the grounds it undercut the bedrock principle of civilian control of the military, have indicated they would vote to confirm the 41-year Army veteran, who would become the nation’s first black defense secretary.
MORE MEMBERS OF THE TEAM: The Senate will convene at 10 a.m. and is scheduled to vote on Austin’s nomination around 10:30 a.m. The Senate will also consider the nominations of former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken to be secretary of state and former Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen to be treasury secretary. Avril Haines was confirmed as director of national intelligence Wednesday night.
Yesterday, Delaware Sen. Chris Coons told CNN that Democrats may be open to Republican leader Mitch McConnell’s call for a three-week delay of the Senate impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, if confirmation votes are expedited on incoming Biden administration officials.
“There are dozens of senior members of the administration who need to be confirmed and deserve to be confirmed,” Coons said. “If we continue to make progress in that direction, then I think this is a good step. If not, you’ll quickly find Democrats frustrated and insisting that we move ahead with the accountability that could be delivered by an impeachment.”
REED NOT CHAIRMAN YET: Even though Democrats now control the Senate by virtue of having a Democratic vice president to deliver the tiebreaker in any party-line 50-50 votes, Rhode Island Democrat Jack Reed is not yet able to assume the mantle of Armed Services Committee chairman.
New York Democrat Chuck Schumer is majority leader, but because committees have not yet been restructured pending a power-sharing agreement required by the evenly divided Senate, Republican Jim Inhofe is still chairman for now.
HOW IT WORKED LAST TIME: The last time the Senate was evenly split was in 2001, and the two senators who worked out a power-sharing agreement, Democrat Tom Daschle and Republican Trent Lott, penned a joint op-ed explaining the perils of legislating with a razor-thin margin.
One of the biggest problems is that Senate committees have to be rejiggered to even out the number of members from each party, and that means, as in the child’s game of musical chairs, somebody will end up without a seat.
“We both had difficult conversations explaining to colleagues with tenure and expertise that they would be reassigned to different committees in the name of Senate balance,” Daschle and Lott write.
Another problem is what to do when there is a tie vote in committee, which normally would kill a bill by preventing a floor vote. Daschle and Lott agreed that in that case, “a motion to discharge the bill from the committee could be considered on the floor, by the full Senate, with a time limit of four hours of debate.”
Schumer is said to have proposed the same arrangement to McConnell.
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited today by David Sivak. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons enters into force. It is the first instrument of international law that comprehensively bans nuclear weapons, and it has been ratified by 51 countries, but notably not the United States, nor any other country that actually has nuclear weapons. Under the treaty, the signatories agree not to “develop, test, produce, acquire, possess, stockpile, use or threaten to use nuclear weapons.”
Despite not applying to the world’s nuclear powers, arms control advocates see it as a baby step toward the goal of nuclear disarmament. “The entry into force of the nuclear ban treaty is an enormous achievement and a hopeful step,” said Laura Grego, senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“The world is saying nuclear weapons are illegitimate and most people in the United States believe no country should have them,” she said in a statement. “The United States may not be ready to sign the Ban Treaty, but it’s time for it to return to leadership on nuclear disarmament.”
RESTARTING NEW START: As expected, President Biden is moving to invoke a provision of the 2010 New START nuclear arms treaty with Russia that would automatically extend the agreement for five years, if both sides agree. The treaty limits each side to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads on ICBMs, submarines, or heavy bombers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has already said he’s ready to extend the agreement, which expires next month, but the Trump administration had refused, arguing the old treaty was obsolete, did not address Russia’s buildup of a new generation of nuclear weapons, and did not include China, which is rapidly increasing its nuclear arsenal.
“Extending the treaty’s limitations on stockpiles of strategic nuclear weapons until 2026 allows time and space for our two nations to explore new verifiable arms control arrangements that could further reduce risks to Americans,” said John Kirby, the Pentagon’s new chief spokesman, in a statement. “We cannot afford to lose New START’s intrusive inspection and notification tools. Failing to swiftly extend New START would weaken America’s understanding of Russia’s long-range nuclear forces.”
IT’S A GOOD MOVE: “Excellent news for nuclear stability,” says Eric Gomez, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute. “The Trump administration resisted a 5-year extension of New START in an effort to leverage Moscow into accepting more limitations on nuclear weapons, but this strategy failed, and the Biden administration is right to reject a shorter extension,” Gomez argues.
“The quick action to extend a vital arms control agreement that advances U.S. security interests and maintains limits on and inspections of Russian nuclear weapons is a welcome change from the Trump administration’s attacks on arms control agreements,” he said.
IT’S A BAD MOVE: “A long-term extension of the New START Treaty that does not include China, does not apply to all nuclear weapons, and does not include the strongest possible verification and transparency measures would be a costly mistake for the United States,” counters Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“The treaty’s current formulation gives Putin a dangerous free pass to continue to develop and field a Strangelovian array of nuclear weapons not covered by the treaty,” he argues. “A copy and paste maneuver by the Biden administration that extends the treaty unchanged for five years risks undercutting America’s leverage and would be quite a gift to Putin. He would love to lock-in the status quo. Why should we help him do that?”
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE: Dozens of National Guard troops brought to Washington to defend the city during the inauguration found themselves unceremoniously relegated to a Capitol parking garage to take their rest breaks, with no explanation.
The images of the citizen-soldiers trying to catch a few winks on the hard concrete floor provoked an immediate outcry from members of Congress and others who were grateful for their service during a time of increased concern over domestic terrorism.
“Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Schumer — why are American troops who are tasked with keeping security at the Capitol being forced to sleep in a parking lot?” tweeted House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy. “They deserve to be treated with respect, and we deserve answers.”
The outrage was bipartisan. “Yeah this is not okay,” tweeted New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. “My office is free this week to any service members who’d like to use it for a break or take nap on the couch. We’ll stock up on snacks for you all too.”
She added the caveat, “We’re in the middle of moving offices and it’s a bit messy so don’t judge, but make yourself at home!”
QANON BAN: Florida Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a former national security specialist at the Pentagon, wants to ban anyone who took part in the Jan. 6 siege of the Capitol and/or who subscribes to QAnon from obtaining or maintaining a federal security clearance.
“Any individual who participated in the assault on the Capitol or who is a member of the conspiracy movement QAnon should be required to disclose this fact when applying to obtain or maintain a federal security clearance,” said Murphy, who held a high-level security clearance when she worked at the DOD.
“It is highly unlikely that such an individual will be found by investigators to have shown the conduct, character, and loyalty to the United States that is a prerequisite to holding a national security position and viewing classified information,” she said.
FULL FUNDING FOR GUARD ON COVID DUTY: President Biden last night removed limitations on federal reimbursement for states’ use of National Guard troops to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.
“FEMA shall fund 100 percent of the cost of activities associated with all mission assignments for the use of the National Guard,” the presidential directive states. “The 100 percent Federal cost share for use of National Guard forces authorized by section 2(b) of this memorandum shall extend to, and shall be available for, orders of any length authorizing duty through September 30, 2021.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: ‘Incredibly betrayed’: National Guard members sleeping in garages after vacating Capitol
Washington Examiner: National Guard keeping 25,000 troops in Washington with no plans to leave — yet
Washington Examiner: Russian intelligence assessment planned as Biden eyes renewal of nuclear treaty: Report
Washington Examiner: Inside the latest US-Russia dispute: Alleged ‘disconnection of telephone lines’ for Moscow’s diplomats
Washington Examiner: ISIS claims responsibility for Baghdad suicide attacks killing at least 32
Washington Examiner:
Washington Examiner: Biden’s defense nominee vows to reverse Pentagon’s Trump-era mission creep to silence
Washington Examiner: Trump leaves behind a coterie of frustrated former national security advisers
Washington Examiner: Biden stops deportations for 100 days
Stars and Stripes: 15,000 National Guard Troops In DC To Return Home Soon
Time: Biden’s Pledge of Normalcy Clashes with ‘Strange Feeling’ in a City Full of Troops
Washington Post: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says ‘need to rebuild trust’ after Trump
Breaking Defense: Austin To Scrub U.S. Pacific Posture; More Bases, Troops Likely
CNBC: Biden’s Team Talks Tough On China As Early Signs Show Policies Won’t Differ Sharply From Trump’s
Defense News: China Boosting Naval Footprint At Its Southern Tip, New Satellite Images Suggest
Wall Street Journal: Biden Sends Important Foreign-Policy Signal With Taiwan Inauguration Invite
Washington Post: China Fires Parting Shot At Trump
Washington Post: Lt. Gen. Charles Flynn denies relationship with brother Michael Flynn was a factor in military’s response to Capitol attack
Air Force Magazine: USAF to Let Women Wear Longer Ponytails, Braids in Uniform
Air Force Magazine: Engine Failure, Aircrew Mistakes Caused Fatal E-11A Crash in Afghanistan
Calendar
FRIDAY | JANUARY 22
10 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project Germany Webinar: “The Threat Posed by Transnational Violent Right-Wing Extremism and Terrorism in Europe and the United States,” with Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director, CEP; Simon Herchen, German Foreign Office; Kapcer Rekawek, PhD, affiliated researcher at CEP; and Jacob Aasland Ravndal, research fellow, Center for Research on Extremism (C-REX), University of Oslo. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace Media Roundtable: “North Korea Could Be Early Test for Biden Administration,” with Amb. Joseph Yun, senior adviser, Asia Center; Frank Aum, senior expert on North Korea.
TUESDAY | JANUARY 26
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation event, with Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute. Invitation only, but video posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org.
3 p.m. — Air Force Association “Air and Space Warfighters in Action” event, with Brig. Gen. Jeremy Sloane, commander of the 36th Wing, Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | JANUARY 29
10 a.m. — Aspen Security Forum virtual event: “The View from Kabul: A Live Conversation with the President of Afghanistan,” with Ashraf Ghani; Carol Lee, NBC News correspondent; and Nicholas Burns, executive director, Aspen Strategy Group. https://aspeninst.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There are moments in history when more is asked of a particular generation, more is asked of us as Americans than other times. We are in that moment now. History’s going to measure whether we’re up to the task.”
President Biden in unveiling what he calls a full-scale wartime effort to ramp up production of vaccines to battle COVID-19.
