Tillerson: North Korean military action would be met with ‘appropriate response’

“Certainly we do not want for things to get to a military conflict, we’re quite clear on that in our communications, but obviously if North Korea takes actions that threaten the South Korean forces or our own forces, then that would be met with an appropriate response,” Tillerson said. Tillerson also visited the DMZ, the world’s most dangerous border, on the second stop of his Asian tour that will take him to China tomorrow. There, he will press Beijing to do more to use its influence with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to defuse the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

THE COST OF ALL OUT WAR: The U.S. has war-gamed all-out war on the Korean Peninsula for years. In the simulations, the U.S and the South always prevail but at huge costs, with estimates of more than 1 million deaths. One problem is that North Korea has spent decades putting artillery along the border aimed at Seoul just 30 miles away, and has threatened to destroy the South Korean capital in a “lake of fire” if the North is ever attacked. Twenty million people live in Seoul.

DUCK AND COVER: Yesterday, school children in a Japanese fishing village practiced what to do if North Korean missiles reached Japan. It was Japan’s first civilian missile evacuation drill, and comes more than a week after North Korea launched four ballistic missiles into the sea off Japan’s northwest coast, Reuters reports. “The missile is seen to have landed within a 20-km boundary west of the Oga peninsula,” a speaker blared during the evacuation. “The government is currently examining the damage.” It was only an exercise, but a real reminder of how seriously the threat from North Korea is being taken.

DOA: Just hours after President Trump released his “skinny” budget for fiscal 2018 and supplemental budget request for fiscal 2017, analysts and lawmakers had declared both dead on arrival on Capitol Hill. Trump’s budget request would spend $668 billion on all of national defense for fiscal 2018. The Defense Department would get $639 billion, including $65 billion in an overseas contingency operations account, while the remainder would go to defense efforts that fall outside of DoD, such as nuclear programs at the Department of Energy.

Sen. John McCain, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called on his colleagues to work together on a bipartisan plan to rebuild the military since it’s “clear that this budget proposed today cannot pass the Senate” because boosts in defense are paid for largely by cuts to nondefense. And analysts said the fiscal 2017 supplemental request is dead for the same reason. The proposal, which would add $30 billion to defense and offset about $18 billion of that with cuts to nondefense, busts the budget caps by $10 billion. That means Congress would need a new budget deal for it to go forward, and Dems won’t support that if it means paying for the wall and slashing domestic spending. Still, a supplemental for fiscal 2017 is possible via the path forward laid out here.

“This budget is pretty much a reflection of budgets that we’ve seen over the last few years that don’t go anywhere,” said former Defense Secretary, CIA Director, White House Chief of Staff, and Rep. Leon Panetta. “They’re usually blocked in the Senate, revised in the Senate, and the bottom line is that we’re probably looking at continuing resolution come October 1,” Panetta told Bloomberg TV. “I don’t see this budget having much life on Capitol Hill.”

SOME COMPANY FOR MATTIS: Trump announced a slew of Pentagon nominations on Thursday, including naming Boeing executive Pat Shanahan as deputy secretary of defense. Shanahan played a key role in getting production of Boeing’s troubled 787 Dreamliner back on track, and was promoted to senior vice president of the aircraft manufacturer’s Supply Chain and Operations last April. Shanahan previously served as general manager of Boeing Missile Defense Systems in Philadelphia, where he oversaw all Army aviation programs. Other announcements:

— National security consultant David Trachtenberg will serve as principal deputy undersecretary of defense on policy.

— Former White House deputy homeland security adviser Kenneth Rapuano will be assistant secretary of defense on homeland and global security.

— Former Senate Armed Services Committee staffer Elaine McCusker will serve as principal undersecretary of defense, comptroller.

— And former Bush administration official Robert Daigle will serve as director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation at the Pentagon.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.

HAPPENING TODAY: Trump meets at the White House with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Europe’s longest serving leader, who Trump dissed during the campaign, saying Merkel made a “catastrophic mistake” by allowing Syrian refugees into Germany. After Trump was elected he took a more conciliatory tone, telling The Times of London and Bild in January: “I respect her, I like her, but I don’t know her.” So the meeting will be a chance for the two leaders to get to know each other. According to German media, Merkel has been poring over Trump’s speeches, public remarks and tweets trying to figure out what makes him tick.

One would expect Germany’s failure to meet NATO’s requirement to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense may come up, since that’s been a constant criticism of Trump’s, and one that was foot-stomped by Mattis on his most recent trip to Europe. But Trump should also know that Germany is America’s biggest trading partner in Europe, and steadfast ally, says Heather Conley at CSIS. “Germany will lead a NATO battalion in Lithuania for NATO’s enhanced forward presence. It is helping to train the Peshmerga in Iraq. It has forces in Afghanistan. It is an important partner,” Conley said this week.

HAPPENING MONDAY: Trump will meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi, according to White House press secretary Sean Spicer. Meanwhile in Iraq reports say Iraqi government forces are continuing to advance on ISIS positions in Mosul’s Old City, edging closer to the historic mosque from where the group’s leader declared a caliphate nearly three years ago, Reuters reports. “The black jihadist flag was clearly visible draped from its famous leaning minaret,” the news agency said.

ABOUT THOSE STATE CUTS: Tillerson defended Trump’s proposed budget cuts to his department as a reversal of unsustainably high spending in recent years, Joel Gehrke writes. “I think clearly, the level of spending that the State Department has been undertaking in the past — and particularly in this past year — is simply not sustainable,” Tillerson told reporters while traveling in Japan.

“What the President is asking the State Department to do is, I think, reflective of a couple of expectations,” Tillerson said. “One is that as time goes by, there will be fewer military conflicts that the U.S. will be directly engaged in; and second, that as we become more effective in our aid programs, that we will also be attracting resources from other countries, allies, and other sources as well to contribute in our development aid and our disaster assistance.”

A DISASTER: That’s what a top House Democrat called “even a fraction” of Trump’s proposed spending cuts to the State Department.

“[T]he White House wants to cut nearly one-third of the international affairs budget next year,” New York Rep. Eliot Engel, the top Foreign Affairs Committee Democrat, said Thursday morning. “That obviously would be a disaster. In fact, slashing our international engagement by even a fraction of that, at a time when we’re facing serious challenges around the world, would be an absolute disaster.” He was joined in that opinion by Rep. Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who said: “I am very concerned that deep cuts to our diplomacy will hurt efforts to combat terrorism, distribute critical humanitarian aid, and promote opportunities for American workers. Especially when the U.S. is fighting ISIS and millions are at risk of starvation around the world.”

GITMO UPGRADES: Buried in the president’s budget plans is some money to make repairs at the U.S. detention center at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, another sign the president has no intention of closing the prison camp down. “There are some facility requirements at Guantanamo Bay that we have been underfunding,” said John Roth, who stood in for the Pentagon comptroller at a briefing yesterday. “As you recall in the previous administration, the premise was we were going to try to close Guantanamo Bay. And so what you see is the request for funding in our request here is a reflection of it doesn’t seem like we’re going to close it any time soon,” Roth said.

MATTIS HOSTS THE PRINCE: Back in Washington, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis was welcoming Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman to the Pentagon, with warm words. “Relations between our two nations go back to when your king and our president met on board a U.S. cruiser in Bitter Lake in 1945,” Mattis told the prince. “The warmth of that relationship has held firm through good times and bad times over many, many years.” The U.S. delegation included Jared Kushner, Steve Bannon, newly named NSC official Dina Powell, national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. Paul Selva, Deputy Director of the CIA Gina Haspel, among others. “Today, we are facing a very serious danger in the region and in the world,” Salman said. “We in Saudi Arabia are at the front line in facing these challenges. Any terrorist organization, their primary target to recruit and spread their ideology is to start with Saudi Arabia, the house of — the holy city of Mecca. Once they put their hands on Saudi Arabia, they will get access to the entire Islamic world. That’s why we are the primary target,” he said.

EXCLUSION VS. INCLUSION: We know all that because unlike Rex Tillerson, who has been criticized for excluding the press on his recent trip, Mattis allowed a small press pool including TV cameras at the top of his private meeting. Lucas Tomlinson of Fox News, representing the Pentagon press corps, even got a question in before the pool was ushered out of the conference room. “Your highness will you be putting ground troops into Syria?,” Tomlinson asked. “We are ready to do anything that will eradicate terrorism, anything without limits,” replied the Saudi minister. We learn a lot more when reporters are there.

Compare that account to the boilerplate official “read-out” of the meeting issued by the Pentagon later in the day. “Secretary Mattis and the deputy crown prince affirmed the importance of the U.S.-Saudi Arabia defense relationship, and discussed the security environment in the Middle East, to include confronting Iran’s destabilizing regional activities, and U.S.-Saudi Arabia military cooperation in defeating ISIS and other transnational terrorist organizations.”

NOW IT’S THE SENATE: A day after House Intelligence Committee leaders said they had yet to see proof of Trump’s claim of wiretapping, the bipartisan leadership of the Senate Intelligence Committee followed suit, saying there is no evidence Trump Tower was surveilled by the U.S. government, either before or after the election, Susan Ferrechio writes. “Based on the information available to us, we see no indications that Trump Tower was the subject of surveillance by any element of the United States government either before or after Election Day 2016,” Chairman Richard Burr and Sen. Mark Warner, the panel’s top Democrat, said in a statement.

AND YET: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes pushed back against his Senate counterparts’ categorical conclusion. Nunes stood by his Wednesday assertion that there was no “physical” wiretap on Trump’s office. But anything beyond that, he said, is unknowable, Nicole Duran reports. “I don’t know how anybody would have that information, with that different information than me, because we know that Flynn was picked up” by surveillance not directed at him, Nunes said about retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, who stepped down as Trump’s national security adviser after undisclosed conversations he had with Russia’s U.S. ambassador came to public attention.

BRITAIN SAYS ‘IT WASN’T US’ Britain’s communications intelligence agency GCHQ is denying it wiretapped Trump during the presidential campaign. That after Spicer yesterday cited a report on Fox as one of the reasons the surveillance case is not closed. “On March 14th, Judge Andrew Napolitano made the following statement, quote, ‘Three intelligence sources have informed Fox News that President Obama went outside the chain of command. He didn’t use the NSA, he didn’t use the CIA, he didn’t use the FBI and he didn’t use the Department of Justice. He used GCHQ,’” Spicer said. The BBC reports that in an unusual statement, the secretive spy agency said such allegations were “nonsense, utterly ridiculous and should be ignored.”

PAUL VS. MCCAIN ROUND 2: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul escalated an already-tense war of words with McCain yesterday morning, by suggesting that it’s time for McCain to leave the Senate.  Wednesday McCain, frustrated that Paul used his senatorial privilege to block a treaty that would allow Montenegro to join NATO, lashed out on the Senate floor. “That a senator, blocking a treaty that is supported by the overwhelming number, perhaps 98, at least, of his colleagues, would come to the floor and object and walk away. The only conclusion you can draw when he walks away is he has no argument to be made. He has no justification for his objection to having a small nation be part of NATO that is under assault from the Russians,” fumed McCain. “So, I repeat again, the senator from Kentucky is now working for Vladimir Putin.”

Asked to respond on MSNBC yesterday, Paul fired back. “You know, I think he makes a really, really strong case for term limits. I think maybe he’s past his prime; I think maybe he’s gotten a little bit unhinged.” Paul’s argument is that the U.S. should not be pledging to go to war with Russia over tiny Montenegro, and said McCain also supported NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. “If we had,” Paul said, “we would be at war now because Russia has invaded both of them.” It’s also possible Russia would not have invaded if the two former Soviet republics had been part of the NATO alliance.

HALEY’S WARNING: President Trump’s U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is urging her boss not to dismiss the intelligence community’s findings that Russia ran an influence campaign on the presidential election in his favor. “Take it seriously,” Haley said on NBC Thursday. “We cannot trust Russia. We should never trust Russia.” Haley said the investigations into Russian meddling in the election need to be completed before any further action is taken against the Kremlin. But, she said that no amount of meddling in American elections can be tolerated.

AIRMEN SPOOF THAT BBC INTERVIEW: Thought the kids interrupting their dad on the BBC was adorable? Try it with airmen. Less adorable, but still funny. Check out the video here.

THE RUNDOWN

AP: AP Analysis: In Asia, Tillerson ponders US-N. Korea reboot

L.A. Times: Japan Considers More Muscular Military Role To Counter North Korea

Defense One: Trump’s Bigger Military Won’t Necessarily Make the US Stronger or Safer

Defense & Aerospace Report: CSBA’s Blakeley on Trump Budget Proposal

The Hill: Why Trump’s defense budget is not enough to rebuild America’s military

Military Times: Another government shutdown is possible. What’s at stake for the military

Breaking Defense: Is Small Beautiful For The Army’s Next Generation Combat Vehicle?

Task and Purpose: The Army’s Latest Mechanical Gadget Is Ripped Right From ‘Aliens’

UPI: Lockheed Martin designs future U.S. Army laser vehicle

Time: U.S. Security Hinges on Getting Foggy Bottom Back In the Game

Defense News: Full tech transfer could derail Indo-Russian fifth-gen fighter program

UPI: Boeing gets $3.2B for Apache sales to Saudi Arabia

Wall Street Journal: Foreign ISIS Fighters Increasingly Isolated in Mosul Battle

Military.com: Guantanamo Judge Setting USS Cole Bombing Trial for 2018

Military Times: VA plans to help ‘bad paper’ veterans don’t go far enough

Military.com: Air Force Identifies Airmen Killed in U-28 Crash

Daily Beast: Marines United Spokesman: Nude Photo Scandal Shows Why Women Shouldn’t Serve

Calendar

FRIDAY | MARCH 17

8:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Rep. Adam Kinzinger speaks at the Atlantic Council about America’s role in the world. atlanticcouncil.org

MONDAY | MARCH 20

10 a.m. Longworth 1100. The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence holds an open hearing on the investigation into Russian hacking. intelligence.house.gov

11:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Rep. Joe Wilson talks about countering threats from North Korea. hudson.org

TUESDAY | MARCH 21

8:00 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Army and Air Force chiefs speak at a day-long conference on the future of war. newamerica.org

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove testifies on a panel before the Senate about U.S. policy and strategy in Europe. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former national security adviser Stephen Hadley testify on America’s role in the world. armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. The House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing looking at options for handling threats from North Korea. foreignaffairs.house.gov

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee holds a hearing on the social media policies of the military services. armedservices.house.gov

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 22

8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a day-long conference on issues in space for the new administration. csis.org

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on the challenges of hybrid warfare. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A former CIA analyst discusses his new book, Debriefing the President: The Interrogation of Saddam Hussein. brookings.edu

11:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The lead negotiators of the Iran nuclear deal talk about opportunities in U.S.-Iran relations in the new administration. wilsoncenter.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Maj. Gen. Scott West, the director of current operations for the U.S. Air Force, testifies about the current state of the service. armedservices.house.gov

3:30 p.m. Russell 222. A panel of Army witnesses testifies about modernization. armed-services.senate.gov

THURSDAY | MARCH 23

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of U.S. European Command, testifies on U.S. strategy in Europe. armed-services.senate.gov

10:30 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Three acting government officials testify about the U.S. policy toward countering weapons of mass destruction in fiscal 2018. armedservices.house.gov

2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Former defense officials testify about reforming civilian personnel. armed-services.senate.gov