The federal investigation into President Trump possibly colluding with Russia to defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 has faded as a driving political issue as the midterm elections approach.
Even as the New York Times reported Thursday that special counsel Robert Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organization for documents pertaining to any relationship the president’s business empire had with Russian interests, a major development in a potentially explosive probe, senior political strategists of both parties conceded that it stopped registering as a top concern for American voters months ago.
“If there is actual evidence, everyone is fucked on the GOP side. But if there is no actual evidence, this is all tribal warfare,” a Republican operative said, requesting anonymity in order to speak candidly.
Indeed, Mueller’s probe, which has ensnared former Trump campaign officials and one ex-administration official, tends not to move the needle as a political matter, with fixed opinions of the president’s alleged guilt or innocence canceling each other out on either side of the partisan divide.
A year ago, Trump was roiling the national politics with his very public fixation on the Russia investigation, and his battle against then-FBI Director James Comey. The episode contributed to broad impressions of a White House in disarray and a president unfit for the job. Exceptionally poor job approval ratings followed; the president’s relationship with Republican allies on Capitol Hill frayed.
But as the probe continued, Trump eventually shifted his attention to more conventional subjects, only occasionally dropping a tweet or making remarks to lament what he calls a “witch hunt.” The issue gradually lost its political punch as a result, with the electorate growing numb despite Mueller rolling out indictments against individuals connected in some fashion to the president.
That’s why Democrats, who ostensibly stand to benefit from the existence of the investigation, are being warned by their top advisers to avoid overemphasizing the Russia probe in midterm campaigns against the Republicans, and instead to to focus on kitchen table issues like jobs and the economy. Democrat Conor Lamb, who appears to have pulled off a major upset in a strong Republican House district in Southwest Pennsylvania, barely mentioned it in his campaign, if at all.
“The issue doesn’t come up a lot at many of the Democratic forums my clients are going to,” a Democratic strategist who advises House clients said.
“Honest to goodness, it’s not a compelling issue,” added a Democratic consultant focused on Senate races. “Obviously it’s very important and the voters would tell you that. But when it comes to compelling voters and activism, issues like health care and the social safety net wallop it.”
Priorities USA, a prominent Democratic super PAC, made a splash earlier this year with a detailed memorandum that made the same observation, and implored Democrats to steer clear of talk of Russia collusion or impeachment on the campaign trail.
“There’s no question that Trump benefits when a critique of his tax and healthcare policies is not front and center — especially when voters are hearing Trump’s side of the story on the economy,” PUSA’s pollster wrote in the memo. Added Josh Schwerin, a spokesman for the super PAC, in an interview with the Washington Examiner:
“People detest his temperament and don’t think he’s telling the truth. That’s going to be there no matter what everyone else is talking about. That’s why it’s important that Democrats are talking about the economy.”
There is a difference between an issue that isn’t serious and Americans don’t care about, and one that is not motivating their vote in upcoming elections. Insiders in both parties aren’t making either of those claims, and Republicans in particular concede that if the investigation turns up evidence of wrongdoing on Trump’s part, the Republican Party will pay the price in November elections already shaping up as a backlash against the president.
Independents and Republican women in the suburbs, already showing signs of rejecting the GOP because of dissatisfaction with Trump, could side with the Democrats en mass if that were to happen. The probe isn’t a motivating issue at this point, but voters hardly view it as the “hoax” Trump claims it is. They see it as a legitimate undertaking.
According to a March 7 to 14 Pew Research Center survey released Thursday, 61 percent of voters have confidence in Mueller to “conduct a fair investigation.” Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed Mueller, a former FBI director, special counsel last spring, after Trump fired Comey.
Views of the probe are influenced by partisanship. Still, 46 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are very or somewhat confident Mueller will conduct a fair investigation. For Democrats and liberal-leaners, that number jumps to 75 percent. Trump’s job approval was 39 percent in that poll.
The survey had an error margin of 3 percentage points.
For Republicans, the concern isn’t just the investigation’s outcome, but the timing. Should Mueller deliver a damning report that involves the president at some point before the midterm elections, the developing Democratic gains in Congressional races could turn into a tsunami.
A conclusion that comes later, no matter the findings, and the GOP’s House and Senate majorities might survive to fight another day.
“It depends on the result,” a Republican consultant said. “Until Mueller is done, the probe doesn’t matter.”
