American troop deaths in Afghanistan reached a five-year high in 2019, with 17 hostile deaths in Afghanistan, according to the most recent Pentagon figures.
The past 12 months were the deadliest year since 2015 when 22 troops were killed. While these numbers are a fraction of what they were at the peak of the conflict in 2009-2012, when hundreds died per year, some experts are concerned about what the rise means for future U.S. operations.
“The Taliban, they smell blood in the water,” Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Examiner. “And they believe that if they can drive up U.S. casualties and make us pay, that will facilitate withdrawal.”
The U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan changed significantly in 2014 when President Barack Obama announced a massive troop withdrawal. That year, U.S. forces sustained 55 fatalities, down from 128 in 2013.
Twelve service members were killed in the war’s earliest months in late 2001 when a combination of CIA teams and Army Special Forces “horse soldiers” set the stage for the U.S. invasion.
Johnny “Mike” Spann, a 32-year-old former Marine serving as a paramilitary officer with the CIA, was the first U.S. death in Afghanistan in November 2001, when he was killed during a riot at the Taliban’s Qala-i-Jangi fortress. In December of that year, a misguided American Joint Direct Attack Munition bomb missed its enemy target, and instead killed Master Sgt. Jefferson Donald “Donnie” Davis, Staff Sgt. Brian Cody Prosser, and Sgt. 1st Class Daniel H. Petithory. A month later, Sgt. 1st Class Nathan Chapman, a member of the 1st Special Forces Group, was killed in action on Jan. 4, 2002, becoming the first U.S. soldier killed in combat during the war. He was 31 years old.
Following the December 2001 Battle of Tora Bora, during which Osama bin Laden escaped capture, casualties began to increase as more troops entered the fight. From 2002 to 2004, the United States lost about 50 troops per year. The number doubled in 2005 and 2006, increasing to 117 and 155 in 2007 and 2008, respectively.
Fatalities began to peak in 2009 when more than 300 troops were killed. They reached an all-time high in 2010 when nearly 500 troops were killed during the Obama administration’s “surge,” an influx of nearly 30,000 troops intended to break the Taliban and allow Afghan forces to take over as the main force.
American deaths began to decrease following the end of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2014, with less than 20 suffered each year between 2016 and 2018. The increase in deaths in 2019 coincided with on-again-off-again negotiations with the Taliban.
The most recent fatality, 33-year-old Sgt. 1st Class Michael Goble, died from wounds sustained in combat on Monday. He was a member of the 7th Special Forces Group on his second deployment to Afghanistan.
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to the Washington Examiner’s request for comment on the slight increase in casualties in 2019.
“I would say if things stay the same, if we maintain the same force posture, conduct operations the way we are, I would expect casualties to be equal to this year, if not greater,” Roggio said.
