The Obama administration put off dealing with Syria’s civil war until after a nuclear deal was concluded with Iran. Now, U.S. officials are ready to help broker a settlement, but find themselves far behind Moscow and Tehran, who have other ideas that may complicate matters for Washington.
Iran and Russia have been working to put their own stamp on a solution. After meeting in Moscow on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, told a news conference they held a “common position” on solving the Syrian crisis that involved putting embattled President Bashar al-Assad’s fate into the hands of that nation’s people.
“The Syrians must themselves decide their fate and their future, and foreign states should only make this easier,” Zarif said, according to the semi-official Mehr News Agency.
The meeting between Lavrov and Zarif follows a flurry of diplomacy in recent weeks by both countries aimed at preserving Assad’s government, though likely without him, and focusing international efforts on defeating the Islamic State. Iran and Russia are Assad’s remaining major international patrons and their support has been critical to keeping him in power.
U.S. officials have been saying for weeks that they hope the nuclear deal provides an opening to end the fighting in Syria, which has killed hundreds of thousands since 2011, made refugees out of millions more and helped spawn the Sunni extremist Islamic State, which also threatens Iraq and has spread elsewhere in the Middle East, including Libya and Egypt’s Sinai peninsula.
But U.S. allies in the region — Israel and Sunni Arab states — are wary of any solution that maintains or expands Iran’s influence in Damascus. Four years of inaction by the Obama administration, including at least one “red line” that was not enforced, have made them jittery, fearing that the White House had been going soft on Assad to keep Iran happy during the nuclear negotiations.
Those fears were not eased after the deal was signed, when at a July 15 news conference, President Obama said:
“I do agree that we’re not going to solve the problems in Syria unless there’s buy-in from the Russians, the Iranians, the Turks, our Gulf partners. It’s too chaotic. There are too many factions. There’s too much money and too many arms flooding into the zone. It’s gotten caught up in both sectarian conflict and geopolitical jockeying. And in order for us to resolve it, there’s going to have to be agreement among the major powers that are interested in Syria that this is not going to be won on the battlefield. So Iran is one of those players, and I think that it’s important for them to be part of that conversation.”
Washington’s stance left an opening for Russia and Iran to step into a leadership role in the process.
Zarif visited Syria recently for talks with Assad and also stopped in Lebanon, where he met with Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iranian-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah, which has sent fighters to help prop up Assad’s government.
Lavrov meanwhile discussed Syria in Doha on Aug. 3 with Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubair, and extended an invitation for Syria’s main opposition group to come to Moscow.
When asked Monday about the Lavrov-Zarif meeting and its implications for U.S. policy, State Department spokesman John Kirby said Washington had hoped all along that Russia would play a “constructive” role in the process of seeking a peaceful solution in Syria.
“What we’ve said all along is there needs to be a political transition in Syria … and that we’re willing to explore a process for that transition with Russia and with Saudi Arabia,” he said.
