VILNIUS, Lithuania — Ten NATO nations kicked off the Tobruq Legacy multinational aerial exercises this week over the skies of Lithuania, Poland, and Germany, aiming to practice defending NATO’s most vulnerable region from a Russian air attack.
“This is the flank of NATO where the adversary has absolute superiority in the air,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Raimundas Karoblis told the Washington Examiner at the Defense Ministry in Vilnius Thursday, emphasizing the importance of aerial defense exercises as a deterrent signal to Russia.
The Baltic states on the eastern flank of the alliance have no offensive air capabilities but bear borders with Russia.
Lithuania and Poland also butt against the heavily fortified Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, leaving critical infrastructure and vital NATO air bases open to attack in a conflict that could easily cut them off from the rest of NATO.
“Kaliningrad is one of the bubbles of a so-called A2AD,” he said, referring to the Russian anti-access, aerial denial capability. “Kaliningrad in particular has the capability to block the Baltic area from supplies by air, land, and sea.”
Karoblis said the Russian exclave has anti-ship missiles and land-to-land missiles capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.
“The time to have rose-colored glasses for Russia is over,” he said, listing conflicts started by Russia, including in Georgia and Ukraine.
Retired Air Force Col. John Venable of the Heritage Foundation explained to the Washington Examiner that bringing nations to the region to become familiar with the terrain and differing air defense systems is vital to working out the kinks that prevent smooth interoperability in a time of crisis.
“Airwise, the Baltics is very vulnerable,” he said.
“The most advanced Russia air defense system in the world surrounds Kaliningrad,” Venable said of the mobile S-400 anti-aircraft batteries deployed in the tiny piece of Russia that sits between NATO partners. “The opportunity for us to go in and move in and defend after a Russian move would be very problematic.”
In an effort to shore up the Baltics, which jut out like a peninsula and have a population of just over 6 million, NATO conducts air policing missions and established Enhanced Forward Presence following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
Four NATO allies lead the multinational battle groups, including Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
But Marius Laurinavicius, a Russia security expert at the Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis, told the Washington Examiner it is the American troop presence in the Baltics that matters most.
“When it comes to any defense in any place, all around Europe, it’s all about the United States,” he said.
“It’s really about the Russian mentality,” he explained. “Russia thinks that they have only one adversary which matters — it’s the United States.”
Laurinavicius said that since Russia’s Western Military District possesses overwhelming power, the focus of the eastern flank NATO strategy is deterrence.
Karoblis noted that air defense gaps exist in the Baltics. Lithuania’s own medium-range air defense systems will not fully be in place until 2021.
Wojciech Lorenz, security analyst at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs, said practicing collective defense also has a political dimension.
“They demonstrate that when one or more allies are threatened, NATO are ready with their capabilities to join the collective defense operation,” he told the Washington Examiner ahead of the exercises.
“Different countries often has different air defense systems,” he added. “Tobruq Legacy is an annual air defense exercise which tests [the] interoperability of NATO allies.”
NATO spokesman Daniele Riggio told the Washington Examiner that the U.S. has invested heavily in securing the alliance’s eastern flank.
“From an air perspective, the United States has significantly contributed to NATO air policing efforts to safeguard allied airspace,” Riggio told the Washington Examiner.
The effort includes five U.S. NATO air deployments to Lithuania, with the most recent in 2017.
Venable said U.S. European Deterrence Initiative investments that followed the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine were also meant to shore up command and control and munition stockpiles.
“Most Americans and maybe most Europeans don’t really realize what’s there, but it’s robust,” he said.
“In the Baltics, they really understand the threat, and they’re doing their best, but they’re kind of smaller than states,” he added. “They want more, and they really want to commit more. Great allies, they just don’t have a lot to offer.”
Karoblis underscored that Lithuania spends more than 2% of its gross domestic product on defense, with several additional planned modernizations of its Air Force with American medium-range air defense missiles and helicopters to replace its aging Russian-made fleet.
“We understand that we need to do what we can, and we invest,” he said.
“It’s the deterrence factor,” he added. “It’s about the training, it’s about the messaging, to push the signals to the potential adversary.”
