When President Trump meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House on Wednesday, a Russian weapon may be a topic of dispute between the two allies.
The Russian S-400 air defense missile system is capable of knocking aircraft, drones, and cruise missiles out of the sky from nearly 250 miles away. Russia has long used it to protect its most strategic assets. Now, Erdogan wants the system to do the same for Turkey, a decision that has sounded alarm bells among the country’s NATO allies.
“It is one of the most advanced air and missile defense systems in the world,” Matthew Kroenig, a former Pentagon strategist and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the Washington Examiner. “My judgment is not quite as good as U.S. systems, but probably second.”
Introduced in 2007, the S-400 has served on the front lines in multiple Russian theaters. It was first deployed to protect the skies over Moscow and later at the Russian naval base at Kaliningrad, the small enclave located between Poland and Lithuania. When Russia became entangled in Syria, Moscow sent the S-400 to protect its troops and those of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al Assad.
Several foreign countries have expressed interest in purchasing the Russian system. Among them is China, which signed a contract to purchase six battalions in 2015, and India, which signed a contract in 2016 for five. One battalion comprises approximately eight launchers, 32 missiles, and a mobile command post.
Ankara’s decision to purchase the system spurred controversy because Turkey is a NATO ally. Additionally, the S-400 would present problems for the F-35 fighter program, which Turkey previously belonged to.
“When you turn the S-400 on, and you’re flying the F-35 in the same theater, that S-400 is going to have to communicate and recognize the F-35 as a friendly aircraft, and then that’s going to start recording information, which is then going to essentially wind up in the hands of the Russians,” James Carafano, vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, told the Washington Examiner. “The Turks know that. They know there’s no workaround for that.”
Because of this risk to the F-35, the United States kicked Turkey out of the fighter program in July. The Turkish military no longer will receive the aircraft. Parts produced in Turkey will be sourced elsewhere.
The S-400 poses another problem for Turkey, Carafano said. Russia entices potential buyers with low prices for weapons that often are expensive to maintain over time.
“Most countries, when they buy something, they don’t really look at life cycle costs. And that’s where the Russians really sack you, big time,” Carafano said. “It’s like buying a used car, and you spend a fortune repairing it.”
Several theories have been posited as to why Erdogan would buy the S-400. One theory is that it is a symbolic move, allowing the Turkish leader to assert his independence. Another is that Turkey sees the U.S. as an unreliable partner in the conflict in Syria.
A third theory — that Erdogan hopes to protect himself against a reprisal of the 2016 coup attempt — comes via Thomas Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It’s extremely clear that this was above all a geopolitical calculation more than this kind of technical air defense calculation,” Karako told the Washington Examiner.
Any attempt by Erdogan to downplay the S-400 purchase should be met with skepticism, Karako said. “I don’t think [Erdogan] is going to be looking out for America’s best interest. I don’t think we can take that to the bank going forward.”
