NINEVEH PROVINCE, IRAQ – The trenches of the Western Front in World War I stretched for nearly 1,000 kilometers, from Belgium through France to the borders of Switzerland. Between the trenches lay a vast “No Man’s Land,” and attempts to cross it invited fire from highly tenable defensive positions. This did not deter generals from sending millions of men across it. Millions of casualties were thus incurred by both sides, until new technology — in particular, the tank — permitted a resumption of offensive warfare.
In northern Iraq, a century later, a thousand-kilometer front separates the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) from predominantly Shia and Kurdish Iraq. The trenches, sandbags and fixed defensive positions provide an unmistakable resemblance to World War I. Here, too, tactics are dictated by technology (or the limitations thereof), favoring defensive rather than offensive operations. Thus rumors of the liberation of Mosul ring hollow, absent the introduction of some military technology to alter the defensive advantage.
The trenches in Telskuf, a now-abandoned Christian town in the Nineveh Province, are manned by Kurdish Peshmerga. From these positions they observe two villages occupied by ISIS that are two kilometers away. The Peshmerga have adapted to the offensive tactics of ISIS and have demonstrated a willingness to defend what they now believe is a bourgeoning nation — Kurdistan. “This is why we are fighting,” one Peshmerga militiaman says. “This is the dream of the Kurdish people.” The dream seems increasingly to be a reality. They are also keenly aware of the viciousness of their foe.
“This enemy is different than any before,” says Peshmerga General Khadar Husayn. “They teach children to execute people with pistols. This goes against every principle (of humanity). It not easy to kill a man, but they have made it easy. They are the enemy of humanity.”
Thirty kilometers to the south of Telskuf is Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, occupied by ISIS for a year. For months, there have been reports of imminent plans for Mosul’s liberation. The terms “occupation” and “liberation,” however, conceal the fact that many residents of predominantly Sunni Mosul welcomed ISIS last year. Many there viewed ISIS as a means of liberation from the Shia-dominated government of Nuri al-Maliki, regarded by most observers as a stooge of the Iranian regime. Still, the strategic importance of Mosul is not lost on the Kurds. Neither is the fact that they lack the offensive firepower and training for offensive warfare.
The Iraqi military does possess the firepower to drive out ISIS but has none of the determination of the Kurds. “They are paid soldiers,” one Kurdish man observes with derision. “It is a job for them.” Not so for the Peshmerga, who only recently began drawing salaries. Few here believe that the Iraqi military will dislodge ISIS from Nineveh or Anbar, despite the ongoing claims by military commanders to the contrary. It is not in their interest to admit limitations — though it is in their interests to buy time. Speaking in optimistic terms about liberating Mosul certainly buys time.
In the meantime, many observers, including David Brooks, have come to the conclusion that has been apparent for some time: Iraq has essentially split into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish spheres, and is unlikely to be reconstituted. The Sunni sphere, largely controlled by ISIS, is unlikely to be “liberated” by the other two. As one source put it, “Not a drop of Kurdish blood will be spilled to liberate Mosul.”
The Iraqi military, despite superior firepower and numbers, has earned a reputation for surrendering and fleeing that is now notorious. The United States could escalate airstrikes, though the civilian casualties would do little to win over Sunni hearts and minds from ISIS. And so Mosul will remain in ISIS hands for the foreseeable future.
Andrew Doran writes about U.S. foreign policy and human rights issues, with a particular focus on the Middle East. He lives in the Washington, D.C. area. Thinking of submitting an op-ed to the Washington Examiner? Be sure to read our guidelines on submissions.
