ISIS FIGHT NOT OVER: On the third anniversary of the start of U.S.-led anti-Islamic State operations, the U.S. military cautioned that the fight against ISIS is not over. The fall of Raqqa yesterday, and July’s fall of Mosul, have denied the Islamic State its self-proclaimed capitals in Syria and Iraq. But while the victories have broken the back of ISIS, the terrorist group has not yet been vanquished. An estimated 6,500 enemy combatants remain, mostly in the Middle Euphrates River Valley in Syria, which the U.S. military refers to as the MERV. “ISIS in Iraq and Syria are all but isolated in their quickly shrinking territory,” said Col. Ryan Dillon, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, who added that even when ISIS is defeated militarily, the war will not be over. “We know that there still is going to be the ideology and the continued insurgent activity as they devolve into that,” Dillon said.
TAKING FULL CREDIT: The news that Raqqa has been liberated by U.S.-backed Kurdish and Arab fighters had President Trump crowing that he personally turned the tide of battle. “I totally changed the rules of engagement. I totally changed our military. I totally changed the attitudes of the military and they have done a fantastic job,” Trump told WMAL radio’s Chris Plante. Trump made the comments during a series of interviews yesterday with conservative talk show hosts. “We are fighting now to win as opposed to fighting to stay there. We were losing, now we are winning,” he said. “ISIS is now giving up, they are giving up, they are raising their hands, they are walking off. Nobody has ever seen that before.” When Plante asked the president why that didn’t happen earlier, Trump replied, “Because you didn’t have Trump as your president.”
We examined this question earlier, given that the overall “by, with and through” strategy didn’t change under Trump, and the defeat of ISIS followed a steady path as the U.S. and allies rebuilt the Iraqi Army, cobbled together a loose coalition of willing fighters in Syria, and methodically racked up victories as it steadily chipped away at ISIS’ brutal caliphate. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis under Trump’s direction made two key tactical changes: He instituted a surround-and-annihilate policy, and delegated authorities closer to the fight. “I think they took a good strategy and they improved it. They made it better,” said retired Col. Steve Warren, a former Pentagon spokesman who is now a CNN contributor. “They can’t take credit for defeating ISIS, no. They can share credit certainly, and I think they can take credit for successfully speeding up the campaign.”
WHAT NEXT: While ISIS now holds less than 3 percent of Iraq, it still has thousands of fighters in the Euphrates river valley in Syria, and among them is believed to be their leader Abu Bakr Baghdadi, who has been reported killed several times only to come back to life later. So will the Kurdish-Arab force, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces or SDF, move to finish off the remnants of ISIS? Yesterday, Dillon told Pentagon reporters that will be up to them. “It’s up to General Mazloum, who is the commander of the SDF, whether or not he reallocates and takes the forces that participated in the battle in Raqqa and redistributes them and has them in the offensive further on down the Middle Euphrates River Valley.”
MCCAIN CALLS FOR NEW MIDEAST STRATEGY: That’s not much of a strategy, argues Sen. John McCain, who says the U.S. faces a daunting situation in Syria even as it sits on the verge of a military victory over the Islamic State. McCain notes with concern that Bashar Assad remains in power propped up by Iran and Russia, and Syria is in ruins from years of civil war. “The humanitarian devastation and lack of political progress wrought by six years of war leaves fertile ground for future insurgencies,” McCain said in statement.
The Armed Services Committee chairman, who has been testier than normal lately, complained that the U.S. lacks a plan and called on the Trump administration to overhaul its approach to the Middle East to transition from counterterrorism operations to a more holistic strategy. “What we need instead is a comprehensive strategy that takes all regional factors into account — a clear articulation of our interests and the ways and means we intend to secure them,” McCain said. “The absence of such a strategy is acutely felt even as we celebrate this important success.”
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
TRUMP’S ‘HISTORIC’ DEFENSE HIKE: Trump has at various times referred to uncertain defense budget proposals in Congress as the set level of spending for the military in 2018. On Tuesday he did it again, telling an audience gathered at a Heritage Foundation event that the U.S. has passed a hike in military spending that follows Ronald Reagan’s idea of peace through strength. “As a demonstration of America’s will, we have passed historic increases in defense spending, you saw that just last week,” Trump said, apparently referring to a non-binding House budget resolution passed Oct. 5 that anticipates $622 billion for defense in 2018.
In actuality, the defense budget remains deeply uncertain as federal caps are set to hold base spending at $549 billion, far below what he or Capitol Hill lawmakers are proposing. Trump’s defense budget request to Congress, which was released in May, called for $603 billion in base funding, and the House and Senate have passed annual defense policy bills calling for $632 billion and $640 billion in base spending, respectively. But to reach any of those spending levels, both chambers must strike an overarching budget deal to lift the caps on defense spending and almost certainly on non-defense spending, as Democrats are demanding.
NDAA CONFERENCE BEGINS: Negotiations are formally underway on the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, which is aimed toward a major hike in defense spending, following a voice vote in the Senate. Senators approved a motion by the House to convene a conference committee and as expected they named McCain and all the other members of the Armed Services Committee to lead the negotiations. Last week, the House picked 31 members of its Armed Services Committee, including the chairman, Rep. Mac Thornberry and 42 members of other committees to be part of the NDAA conference.
Now the members must hammer out a final NDAA bill by December with compromises on the size of the Army, the numbers of new aircraft and ships, and a controversial House proposal to create a new Space Corps military service within the Department of the Air Force. Both McCain’s $700 billion NDAA and Thornberry’s $696 billion bill propose increases in defense spending well beyond the $639 billion requested by Trump, but their proposed bills disagree on the specific details, such as the total number of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft and Navy littoral combat ships that should be bought.
F-16 UPGRADES FOR GREECE: As Trump met with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras yesterday, the State Department announced it had approved the possible $2.4 billion sale of F-16 Fighting Falcon jet upgrades to the NATO ally, according to the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. Greece inquired about purchasing the fighter jet upgrades to a Block V configuration. The deal could include hundreds of radars, computers, displays and navigation systems, and comes as Trump seeks to shore up military relations with Greece, which hosts a U.S. Navy base at Souda Bay on the island of Crete.
MATTIS’ BRAC ESTIMATE: Base closures have been a non-starter on Capitol Hill for years, but that hasn’t stopped the Pentagon from making the case it could save billions if it could just shed excess bases, not just in the U.S. but around the globe. In his latest communication with Congress, Mattis is pushing for a new round of the Base Realignment and Closure program, or BRAC. Mattis says an estimated 19 percent of U.S. military properties around the world might be unneeded and he is pressing lawmakers to allow him to take a closer look.
Mattis provided the 19 percent estimate, which is based on outdated 2012 military data, in a report to Congress this month in what is the latest push by the Pentagon to get lawmakers to permit a new BRAC round that could result in the shuttering of excess facilities in the 2020s. “I must be able to eliminate excess infrastructure in order to shift resources to readiness and modernization,” Mattis wrote in an Oct. 6 letter released Tuesday by Rep. Adam Smith, the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.
In an apparent attempt to reassure lawmakers who are loathe to shutter bases in their states, Mattis said the Pentagon needs congressional approval only to assess how existing facilities match current needs, and closures are not a foregone conclusion. “If Congress were to enact the [Defense] Department’s legislative proposal authorizing a 2021 BRAC round, the process would proceed only if I certify that a BRAC round is needed and that it will achieve savings for each of the military departments,” he wrote.
McCain, the Armed Services chairman, and Sen. Jack Reed, the committee’s top Democrat, floated a proposal to start the BRAC process over the summer, but the House Armed Services opposed the move. Smith, a long-time proponent of BRAC, took the opportunity to push his case, calling the Pentagon findings “extremely strong” evidence. “We are wasting taxpayer money to maintain buildings and facilities that the military does not need, while we drain away funds for readiness and weaponry that could keep our service members safe and our country secure,” he said.
SENATE CONFIRMS TRACHTENBERG: Trump’s pick for a deputy Pentagon post focused on defense policy finally got his confirmation vote in the Senate seven months after the nomination was announced. David Trachtenberg, who has experience in the Defense Department and on Capitol Hill, was approved by a 79-17 vote as the new principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. Trachtenberg marks the 18th confirmed position in the Defense Department. Nearly 70 percent of other Senate-confirmable posts at the Pentagon remain vacant more than eight months into the Trump administration. Nominees for 39 appointed positions have either yet to be named or await action in the Senate and its Armed Services Committee.
Last week, Trump announced he had chosen Lockheed Martin senior vice president John Rood to serve as Trachtenberg’s boss, the undersecretary of defense for policy, and that nomination has also been referred to Armed Services, where 19 nominations are waiting. The president has been slow to announce key defense positions. But candidates such as Army secretary nominee Mark Esper, a top Raytheon lobbyist, have also been held up by McCain, who has said he wants more transparency from Mattis and the Pentagon on a range of issues including plans for Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.
BIGTIME BACKFIRE: If you are puzzling over why the United States seems to be abandoning the Kurds as they are being forced to cede territory to the central government in Baghdad, it might be worth giving another read to the letter Secretary of State Rex Tillerson wrote to Masoud Barzani, president of Iraqi Kurdistan. Tillerson offered a deal: Call off the planned referendum on independence, commit to negotiations, and if that doesn’t work, the U.S. will support a future vote on independence.
“This is a rare opportunity that we respectfully ask you accept as an alternative to the currently scheduled referendum, which we believe would carry serious consequences — and even, perversely, set back your objectives,” Tillerson wrote last month. “At the end of this process, of course, should the talks not reach a mutually acceptable conclusion or fail on account of lack of good faith on the part of Baghdad we would recognize the need for a referendum.”
Barzani, in what now seems to be a major miscalculation, went ahead with the vote, angering the government of Haider al-Abadi, and poking a finger in the eye of its most powerful ally, the United States. As a consequence, the U.S. has adopted a position of neutrality, which is a de facto endorsement of the Iraqi government. “We’re not taking sides,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reporters yesterday. “We continue to call for calm.”
CALLING FAMILIES OF THE FALLEN: Trump’s self-created controversy over how presidents treat the families of fallen service members spilled into a second day Tuesday. Appearing on Fox News radio host Brian Kilmeade’s show, Trump defended his assertion that former President Barack Obama didn’t call the families of fallen troops, and brought up his chief of staff John Kelly. “I think I’ve called every family of someone who’s died,” Trump said. “As far as other representatives, I don’t know. You could ask General Kelly, did he get a call from Obama?” Kelly’s son, Marine 2nd Lt. Robert Kelly, was killed while serving in Afghanistan in 2010.
Former Obama administration officials immediately accused Trump of using Kelly’s personal loss to score political points: “Kelly, a man of honor & decency, should stop this inane cruelty. He saw up-close just how—& how much—Obama cared for the fallen’s families,” tweeted Ned Price, former senior director and spokesman for Obama’s National Security Council.
FACT-CHECKING: Not long after the comment, a White House official (speaking anonymously) confirmed to the Washington Examiner that Kelly did not receive a call from Obama when his son died. However, The Associated Press reported Kelly and his wife did attend a breakfast for Gold Star families hosted by Obama. A source told AP the Kellys sat at a table with former first lady Michelle Obama at the breakfast, which took place just six months after their son had died. AP also obtained a White House visitor log that confirms the Kelly family attended this event.
In addition the AP talked to the families of three other soldiers who died overseas this year who did not get a call from Trump. One widow was told a call was coming from the White House but it never did. Another mother thought maybe Trump didn’t call because her son’s death in Syria was ruled a non-combat accident. Yet another mother said she never expected a call, figuring the president was busy dealing with Hurricane Harvey.
Former Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey tweeted yesterday in support of both Obama and George W. Bush. “POTUS 43 & 44 and first ladies cared deeply, worked tirelessly for the serving, the fallen, and their families. Not politics. Sacred Trust.”
THEN TRUMP MADE THE CALLS: “President Trump spoke to all four of the families of those who were killed in action in Niger,” White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a written statement on Tuesday. “He offered condolences on behalf of a grateful nation and assured them their family’s extraordinary sacrifice to the country will never be forgotten.” Trump’s calls came 12 days after the soldier’s deaths.
In one of those calls, Trump told the widow of Sgt. La David Johnson that her husband “knew what he signed up for … but when it happens it hurts anyway,” said Rep. Frederica Wilson.
“Yes, he said it,” Wilson said, according to ABC affiliate Local 10 News. “It’s so insensitive. He should have not have said that. He shouldn’t have said it,” she added. Wilson said she bore witness to the call, which took place for about five minutes.
She further explained the call and her reaction during an interview on CNN. “I asked them to give me the phone because I wanted to speak with him, and I was going to curse him out,” said Wilson, who was on the way to the airport with Johnson’s widow, Myeshia Johnson, to collect her husband’s body when she received the call from Trump. “That was my reaction at that time. I was livid. But they would not give me the phone.”
MATTIS’ STEALTH BRIEFINGS: Faithful readers of this newsletter will recall that we reported that Mattis engaged the Pentagon press corps late Friday in his preferred forum, the casual drop-by. Mattis once again stopped off to chew the fat with reporters on his way back from the dry cleaners with dress shirts slung over his shoulder. Reporters both love and hate the impromptu, no-notice briefings. They love the access, but hate the randomness. You have to be hanging around the press area with nothing else to do, or you risk missing the news of the day.
The Pentagon says it does provide a transcript later of the secretary’s on-the-record remarks for the benefit of those who are not there. But five days later there is no transcript. So there is, as of this writing, no official record of policy statements made by the secretary of defense on behalf of the United States. You just had to be there. Thankfully, our Travis Tritten was, which is why we could tell you what Mattis said.
THE RUNDOWN
AP: Al-Qaida set to gain as Islamic State disintegrates
Reuters: Khamenei says Iran will ‘shred’ nuclear deal if U.S. quits it
Defense News: McCain says he is on the rocks with Mattis and McMaster
Washington Post: Heritage Foundation considers top White House aide, Cubs co-owner as next leader
Singapore Straits Times: US Admiral Harry Harris: China Needs To Exert More Pressure On North Korea; End Its Own ‘Provocative’ Maritime Actions
Wall Street Journal: British intelligence chief notes quickening pace of terror threats
USNI News: Multinational mine warfare exercise begins off South Korea
Stars and Stripes: Firm pays $2.6M settlement after hiring base guards in Iraq who U.S. says couldn’t shoot
Politico: Raqqa’s liberation will change, not end, fight against ISIS
New York Times: Philippine City is declared ‘liberated’ from terrorists after months of fighting
UPI: Experts: Islamic State ‘death spiral’ most dangerous part of fight for U.S. coalition
Daily Beast: The creepily influential Trumpist foreign-policy think tank you’ve never heard of
Task and Purpose: A simple guide to naming your military operation, according to Winston Churchill
DoD Buzz: Air Force delays contract for T-X replacement until spring
Marine Corps Times: Marine colonel on Joint Staff arrested in Florida prostitution sting
Defense One: How 4 Green Berets took down Joseph Kony’s army with tailored messages
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | OCT. 18
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A book talk with Sir Lawrence Freedman about “The Future of War: A History.” csis.org
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Kevan Harris on Iran from below and findings from the Iran social survey. atlanticcouncil.org
3 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. The KRG independence referendum and regional realities with Arshad Al-Salihi, the Iraqi Turkmen Front leader and a member of the Iraq Parliament; James F. Jeffrey, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Iraq; and Lukman Faily, former Iraqi ambassador to the U.S. press.org
7:15 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Adm. Kurt Tidd, commander of U.S. Southern Command, speaks about the challenges and opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean. press.org
THURSDAY | OCT. 19
8 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Open Architecture Summit 2017 with a keynote speech by William Bray, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy. openarchitecturesummit.com
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Roles and responsibilities for defending the nation from cyber attack with Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense. armed-services.senate.gov
12:15 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The fait accompli in the 21st century security landscape: From Crimea to Doklam to the Spratly Islands. stimson.org
3 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A strategy for the trans-Pacific century: Final report of the Atlantic Council’s Asia-Pacific strategy task force. atlanticcouncil.org
3 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The North Korean nuclear challenge and international response. heritage.org
FRIDAY | OCT. 20
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. Global leaders forum with H.E. Florence Parly, France’s minister for the armed forces. csis.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. How Jihadism ends: Comparing state strategies toward violent extremism in Kenya and Uganda. csis.org
1:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. The way forward on Iran policy with a keynote speech by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. press.org
MONDAY | OCT. 23
12 p.m. 6715 Commerce St. 20th Annual Systems Engineering Conference with Vice Adm. Paul Grosklags, head of Naval Air Systems Command. ndia.org
TUESDAY | OCT. 24
7:45 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Precision Strike Technology Symposium with Vice Adm. Mat Winter, F-35 program executive officer, and Gen. Stephen Wilson, vice chief of staff of the Air Force. ndia.org
8 a.m. 100 Westgate Circle. 22nd Annual Expeditionary Warfare Conference with Lt. Gen. Bob Hedelund, commanding general of the II Marine Expeditionary Force, and Vice Adm. Kevin Scott, director of Joint Staff force development. ndia.org
11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Securing democracy: The history of foreign election interference. csis.org
WEDNESDAY | OCT. 25
10:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Book discussion of “Vets and Pets: Wounded Warriors and the Animals that Help Them Heal” with authors Kevin Ferris and Dava Guerin. heritage.org
5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book launch of “Crashback, The Power Clash Between the U.S. and China in the Pacific” with author Michael Fabey. csis.org
