TOUGH CHOICES FOR DEFEATING ISIS: No matter how many times reporters tried to get Gen. Joseph Dunford to give an idea what the Pentagon will be recommending to President Trump next week to speed the defeat of ISIS, the Joint Chiefs chairman kept stiff-arming the questions with some variation of the same response. “We are in the business of providing options to the president, and that is what we are doing,” he said yesterday in a session at the Brookings Institution. “With regard to specificity as to what we will do and what our posture will be, I’m not in position to talk about it.”
But over the course of an hour, Dunford did discuss the enormous complexity of the problem, especially in Syria, and said the president would be briefed on a “wide range of options,” along with a presentation of the upside and downside of each course of action. “This is an incredibly complex environment. Everything we do, or fail to do, will have second and third order effects,” Dunford said. “We will clearly outline for him the consequences, the opportunity costs, the risk associated with each one of the options that we present.” But he cautioned, “We don’t want to bring options to him that solve one problem, only to create a second problem.”
Dunford stressed that 30-day review ordered by Trump has produced a draft plan with both a military and political component. “Anything we do on the ground has to be in the context of political objectives or it is not going to be successful,” he said. “You have Iran there. You’ve got Russia there, the Syrian regime obviously, Turkish concerns, Kurdish concerns, Arab concerns, Shia concerns and Sunni concerns. We do need to have the vision of how our military actions set conditions on the ground that actually then become the platform from which Secretary [of State Rex] Tillerson goes to Geneva to come up with a political solution.”
And in the end it will be Trump who makes the call. “I’m not prepared to say if there will be a change because the decider is the president of the United States,” Dunford said. “We cannot be paralyzed by tough choices. We’ve gotta frame those tough choices for the president We’ve got to clearly articulate the consequences of those choices.”
MOSUL DAY 6: In the battle for Mosul, Iraqi troops have now secured the international airport on the city’s southwestern edge, and advanced into the first neighborhood in the western part of the city still controlled by ISIS. An Associated Press team near the front lines reported seeing at least four wounded Iraq special forces’ members and the bodies of three soldiers, a sign of the intensity of the fight.
BOMBING IN SYRIA: A car bomb north of al-Bab has killed at least 35 people, and ISIS has claimed responsibility. Turkey’s Anadolu news agency said the explosion today killed civilians and Syrian opposition fighters, as well some civilians at a checkpoint that Syrians have to pass through return at al-Bab, which was recently retaken from Islamic State fighters by Turkish forces and Syrian opposition fighters.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Trump takes center stage this morning at CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference, at National Harbor. Trump skipped the event last year during the campaign, but the White House points out he has addressed the gathering in 2011, 2013, 2014, and 2015. Trump will be the fourth president to appear before the group.
DISSING NEW START: In an interview with the Reuters agency yesterday the president reiterated his December tweet pledge to build up America’s nuclear arsenal and reverse what he sees as a trend in which the United States has “fallen behind on nuclear weapon capacity.”
“We’re never going to fall behind any country even if it’s a friendly country, we’re never going to fall behind on nuclear power,” Trump told Reuters from behind his Oval Office desk. “It would be wonderful, a dream would be that no country would have nukes, but if countries are going to have nukes, we’re going to be at the top of the pack,” Trump said.
And while Trump complained that the New START treaty, which requires the U.S. and Russia to equalize their nuclear arsenals over 10 years, is “a one-sided deal,” he stopped short of saying he would abrogate the treaty. “Just another bad deal that the country made, whether it’s START, whether it’s the Iran deal. … We’re going to start making good deals,” he said. Under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, by February 2018 neither the U.S. nor Russia can have more than 1,550 warheads on 700 deployed launchers and no more than 800 total deployed and non-deployed launchers.
KEEPING THE TRIAD: Not that that it’s in any danger of going away, but Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein gave a vote of confidence in maintaining all three legs of America’s nuclear triad. Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Goldfein argued each leg has unique advantage that should not be given up. He called land-based missiles the most responsive leg of the triad. “That’s the one that the commander in chief can call on the quickest, and respond the quickest. It’s also the one that has a huge cost-imposing strategy on a potential adversary with 450 sites that he would have to target to take out our capability of using that most responsive leg. The bomber leg is the most flexible. It’s the one that you can actually call back. It’s the one you can deploy forward. You can change yields. And the submarine force is the most survivable,” Goldfein said. “So on our worst day as a nation, we will always have access to one of those three legs.”
But Goldfein issued another grim warning that fulfilling the Air Force mission of providing two legs of the nuclear deterrent, as well as airpower to support current operations, will be in grave jeopardy if Congress fails to pass a budget, and instead resorts to another stopgap continuing resolution to fund the military. “So you know, every once in awhile we talk about no-fly zones. Let me describe a no-fly zone. Go to Shaw Air Force Base, if we get a year-long CR,” Goldfein said. “There is no enemy on the planet that can do more damage to the United States Air Force than us not getting a budget.”
A “MILITARY” OPERATION: Trump created a bit of confusion yesterday when he referred to the planned deportation of criminal immigrants as a “military operation,” forcing his press secretary to explain what the president meant to say. Not long after Trump dropped the “M” word on Thursday, Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly, apparently unaware Trump had used the term, said “There will be no use of military forces in immigration.” Kelly, speaking in Mexico City, then took a shot at reporters for bringing up the military in past reporting. “At least half of you try to get that right because it continually comes up in the reporting.”
Later in the day, spokesman Sean Spicer said Trump was using “military” as metaphor for the efficiency of the deportations, not a declaration that the military would carry out the task. “The president was using that as an adjective. It’s happening with the precision [of a military operation].
“The president was clearly describing the manner in which this was being done,” Spicer said. “[It’s] being done with very much a high degree of precision and in a flawless manner, in terms of making sure that the orders are carried out and it’s done in a very streamlined and efficient manner.”
NORTH KOREA GOES AFTER CHINA: State-run media in North Korea published a mocking column that faulted China for implementing international sanctions imposed on the nuclear-armed dictatorship, Joel Gehrke writes. “This country, styling itself a big power, is dancing to the tune of the U.S. while defending its mean behavior with such excuses that it was meant not to have a negative impact on the living of the people in the DPRK but to check its nuclear program,” the Korean Central News Agency column said.
China has long provided economic support to the North Korean regime, but a series of weapons tests prompted the Chinese government to allow another round of sanctions to pass through the UN Security Council. The KCNA column comes days after the Chinese government decided to suspend all coal imports following North Korea’s latest ballistic missile test.
TRUMP GOES AFTER CHINA OVER NORTH KOREA: In his interview with Reuters, Trump said North Korea’s missile tests and nuclear ambitions are “a very dangerous situation,” but again blamed Beijing for not doing more. “China can end it very quickly in my opinion,” Trump said, insisting China has “tremendous control over North Korea.” In response, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said today, “We have said many times already that the crux of the North Korean nuclear issue is the problem between the United States and North Korea,” adding, “We hope the relevant parties can shoulder their responsibilities, play the role they should, and together with China play a constructive role for peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and for its denuclearization.”
Here’s an except from the interview: “I know exactly what’s going on between China and North Korea and everybody else. But I don’t like talking about military strategy in newspapers. … I’m not liking it. This didn’t take place under the Trump administration, this took place under the Obama administration. Many things took place that should not have been allowed. One of them is the building of a massive, you know, massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea. And don’t forget I’ve only been here for four weeks. This is something that took place and has been started three years ago and you were in a much better negotiating position three years ago. I am not happy about it.”
VX ASSASSINATION: The Malaysian government now says it was a solution of the deadly nerve agent VX that was used to kill the half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in a Feb. 13 airport attack in Kuala Lumpur. VX is classified as a weapon of mass destruction by the U.N. The victim, Kim Jong Nam, was approached by two women in Kuala Lumpur airport, who wiped the chemical on his face. Kim had been living with his family in Macau under China’s protection and had spoken out against the North Korean regime. “The two women suspects — one Vietnamese and the other Indonesian — are in police detention along with a North Korean man. Seven other North Koreans are wanted in connection with the case, including a diplomat at the embassy in Kuala Lumpur,” according to Reuters.
MORE TROUBLE FOR FLYNN: He may be out a job, but he’s not out of hot water, according to the Wall Street Journal, which is reporting that “a thorough records search” by the Pentagon has failed to turn up any record that fired national security adviser Mike Flynn got approval to accept an honorarium for his participation in a Russian state TV event in 2015. In response to a request from Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings, the acting secretary of the Army said his office found no documents that would answer questions about whether Flynn violated Pentagon rules that require retired officers to report income from foreign states. That said, the Army isn’t investigating Flynn, beyond responding to the congressional request, according to the paper.
THE RUNDOWN
Wall Street Journal: Mattis’s Pyrrhic Personnel War
Military Times: Trump’s transgender directive and what’s at stake within the U.S. military
Associated Press: Trio of military men gain growing influence with Trump
Washington Post: The Pentagon said it wouldn’t use depleted uranium rounds against ISIS. Months later, it did — thousands of times.
CNN: FBI refused White House request to knock down recent Trump-Russia stories
CNN: White House effort to justify travel ban causes growing concern for some intelligence officials
Wall Street Journal: Trump to Add Some Muscle to U.S. Strategy to Fight Islamic State
BuzzFeed: Trump’s Plans To Obliterate ISIS May Look A Lot Like Obama’s Strategy
Newsweek: Exclusive: Listen to controversial White House terrorism adviser Sebastian Gorka’s angry call to a critic
USNI News: NSA Head: Russian Interference in U.S. Election, ‘Hey, This Happened’
Washington Post: U.S. generals want elevated talks with Russia about Iraq and Syria operations because of aerial collision fears
Calendar
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 28
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Two think tank experts testify on the state of Iraq once the battle to retake Mosul is over. foreign.senate.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Witnesses from the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute testify on China’s maritime push. foreignaffairs.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Committee hears military witnesses on the DoD inspector general’s report relating to U.S. Central Command’s intelligence products. armedservices.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 1
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Pentagon officials talk about the future of vertical lift platforms. csis.org
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2212. The House Armed Services Committee holds a hearing focusing on ground force capability in Eastern Europe. armedservices.house.gov
THURSDAY | MARCH 2
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Rep. Joe Wilson talks about the military readiness crisis. aei.org
2 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence holds a closed hearing. intelligence.senate.gov
