PLAYING ‘PREVENT DEFENSE’: In football, the “prevent defense” is a game plan that is focused on playing not to lose. It usually involves adding an extra cornerback to prevent the opposing team from completing the long bomb. It’s a strategy only employed when your team is winning and the clock is running out.
On Friday, President Trump decided against a military strike to punish Iran, which the United States says is certainly behind the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. “Going into Iran would be a very easy decision. As I said before, it would be very easy, the easiest thing,” Trump said at a news conference with Australia’s prime minister. Instead, he said, “I’m showing great restraint,” which he says “a lot of people respect.”
EXPANDING THE SHIELD: Later on Friday, after returning to the Pentagon from a national security meeting at the White House, Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced that the United States would be beefing up missile defenses in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “The president has approved the deployment of U.S. forces, which will be defensive in nature and primarily focused on air and missile defense,” Esper said.
The attack on two Saudi oil processing facilities by drone and cruise missiles exposed glaring deficiencies in Saudi air defenses, which rely largely on U.S. technology, including Patriot missiles. “No single system is going to be able to defend against a threat like that, but a layered system of defensive capabilities would mitigate the risk of swarms of drones or other attacks that may come from Iran,” said Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford.
Dunford said he would make specific recommendations this week after conferring with U.S. Central Command head Gen. Frank McKenzie, but added that the dispatch of U.S. troops would be “a moderate deployment,” in the hundreds, “not thousands.”
MAXIMUM PRESSURE IS WORKING: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is in New York for this week’s United Nations General Assembly, was on ABC and CBS yesterday vigorously defending the Trump approach against criticism it shows weakness and is emboldening Iran.
“The strategy is working,” Pompeo said on Face the Nation. “The sanctions that we’ve put in place that ultimately will cause the Iranian regime to shrink by between 10 and 15 percent in the year ahead only went in place in May of this year. They’re five months on. We’re at the beginning of that sanctions campaign.”
IRAN INSISTS US WANTS WAR: While the United States is emphasizing it wants to deter Iran and stressing diplomacy, Iran continues to threaten “all-out war” if attacked.
“I’m not confident that we can avoid a war,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on CBS. “I’m confident that we will not start one, but I’m confident that whoever starts one will not be the one who finishes it.”
“Apparently, the Iranians are bloodthirsty and looking for war. President Trump and I, we’re looking for a diplomatic resolution to this,” responded Pompeo later in the program. “But make no mistake about it. We’re prepared to do the things we need to do to try to deter Iran from this kind of behavior.”
As for Zarif’s continued denials that Iran had anything to do with the attack: “I don’t know why anybody listens to the Iranian foreign minister. He has nothing to do with Iranian foreign policy. And he’s lied for decades. And then he resigned,” he said. “It’s not even worth responding to him. It’s beneath the dignity of anyone in the world to listen to someone who repeatedly makes the claim that the Houthis launched this attack.”
NO TALKS AT THE UN: President Trump says while “nothing is ever off the table completely,” he has no plans to meet with Iran’s president at the United Nations this week. “That doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. I’m a very flexible person. But we have no intention,” Trump said yesterday. “We’re meeting with a lot of leaders. We have about 15 meetings set up, but Iran is not one of them.”
LOST OUR LEVERAGE: On CNN yesterday, former U.S. ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk argued that while Trump has rightly pointed out that America’s newfound energy independence means it no longer needs to rely as much on Saudi oil, that also sends a message to Iran that the United States will not go to war to protect world oil supplies.
“If he keeps on upping the pressure with more sanctions, the Iranians will keep on retaliating especially because they see now that he will not use force against them,” said Indyk, who is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Maximum pressure isn’t working, it’s only driving him into a situation where he has to choose between a retaliation that he doesn’t want to undertake, military retaliation, or capitulation to Iranian demand.”
“So he needs to get back to the negotiating table, he needs to use the sanctions as leverage, he needs to offer waivers in order to get back to the table,” Indyk said.
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks at an event dubbed the “Global Call to Protect Religious Freedom” at U.N. headquarters at 11:30 a.m. He’ll be introduced by Vice President Mike Pence.
ALSO TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper meets with German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer at the Pentagon. The arrival ceremony on the steps of the Pentagon’s River Entrance is set for 10:15 a.m.
NORTH KOREA’S MYSTERY COMPLEXES: The North Korea monitoring site 38 North is out with a new analysis of two previously unidentified underground complexes that have now been identified near the Yongbyon nuclear facility.
“While it is impossible to remotely discern their purposes, their location within Yongbyon’s security perimeter and subsequent camouflaging qualify them as subjects of interest for future inspection teams,” writes 38 North analyst Frank Pabian.
The speculation is that the underground facilities house uranium enrichment centers. Experts have long believed North Korea has uranium enrichment capabilities in addition to the declared Yongbyon facility, which produced nuclear material for six of the Kim Jong Un regime’s weapons tests.
US STRIKES LIBYA: U.S. Africa Command has revealed the United States struck ISIS fighters in Libya last week.
“U.S. Africa Command conducted this airstrike to eliminate terrorist leaders and fighters and to disrupt terrorist activity,” said U.S. Africa Command chief Gen. Stephen Townsend in a release.
The United States says it believes the airstrike killed eight ISIS members but that no civilians were killed or wounded.
THE DREADED CR: As Congress appears to be moving inexorably to passing a short-term continuing resolution to prevent a government shutdown at the end of the month, the Pentagon keeps trying to make the case that delaying full funding for the military until at least Nov. 21 will hurt national security.
Asked by reporters what would be affected by the six-week delay, the Pentagon said a CR would “disrupt major exercises and training events, affect readiness and maintenance, curtail hiring and recruitment actions, and adversely impact contracting negotiations.”
It also gave these examples of new technology whose procurement would be harmed:
Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon: A CR “delays critical long lead purchases, putting planned delivery at risk; adversely impacting the ability to deter and defeat near-peer adversaries.”
Advanced Helicopter Training System: The “new start procurement” of 32 AHTS aircraft (24 Navy, 8 Marine Corps) scheduled to award in November 2019 would be delayed.
B-52 Global Positioning System Interface Unit Replacement: A CR “delays procurement of critical processing chips/circuit cards; creating 18 month slip, impacting mission capable rates.”
QUOTH THE MAVEN EVERMORE: In his book Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead, former defense secretary Jim Mattis lives up to his reputation as the “maven of maxims,” liberally sprinkling his battlefield parables with quotable quotations and homespun aphorisms.
I picked out 50 of the best lines from the book, which I have compiled here. Here are 10 to get you started
- You don’t send a grunt with a rifle when a five-hundred-pound bomb will do the job.
- Everyone has a plan, Mike Tyson said, until they get punched in the mouth.
- Doctrine is the last refuge of the unimaginative.
- I can appear brilliant if I fight enemy leaders dumber than a bucket of rocks.
- Engage your brain before you engage your weapon.
- I had lance corporals who could better express the nobility of our methods than U.S. government spokespeople in Washington.
- The most important six inches on the battlefield are between your ears.
- PowerPoint is excellent when displaying data; but it makes us stupid when applied to critical thinking.
- It is better to have a friend with deep flaws than an adversary with enduring hostility.
- I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all.
The Rundown
New York Times: Iran Says British Tanker Is Free to Go After 2 Months of Detention
Wall Street Journal: For Trump, Long Odds on Securing New U.N. Action Against Iran
Bloomberg: Iran Says It Will Hold Naval Drill With Russia, China ‘Soon’
Reuters: Iran Navy Commander Says Iran Ready to Defend Its Marine Borders
Reuters: Afghanistan’s Taliban Meets Chinese Government In Beijing
Washington Post: Boeing, Northrop spar over $85 billion nuclear missile program
Air Force Magazine: AMC Faces Growing Mobility Needs While Pilot Shortage Continues
USNI News: ‘Boring’ First Flight Of MQ-25A Prototype Was the Result Boeing and Navy Wanted
Air Force Magazine: Huey Replacement Helo to Start Testing in December
Breaking Defense: Navy’s New Triton Drone Heads to Guam, New Pacific Recon Tool
Task & Purpose: Marine veteran Austin Tice has been held in Syria for 7 years. It’s time to bring him home
Kyodo News: Japan Fails to Track North Korea Missiles in Recent String of Launches
Washington Post: Trump’s new U.N. ambassador to face growing alarm on climate change, Iran
Calendar
MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 23
9 a.m. 1127 Connecticut Avenue N.W. Center for European Policy Analysis forum on “Transatlantic Anniversaries: Legacies and Unfinished Business,” with Defense Undersecretary for Policy John Rood and Army Futures Command Deputy Commanding General Lt. Gen. Eric Wesley. www.cepaforum.org
9:15 a.m. 58 East 68th Street, New York. Council on Foreign Relations discussion with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and Richard Haass, CFR president, on the state of U.S.-Pakistan relations. www.cfr.org/event
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies and Northeastern University conference on “Implementing Innovation: The 21st Century National Security Innovation Partnership,” with DARPA director Steven Walker and Deputy Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Lisa Porter. www.csis.org/events
12 p.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. United States Institute of Peace discussion on “U.S.-China Competition,” with Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chair Mark Warner, D-Va., and Nancy Lindborg, president and CEO of USIP. www.usip.org/events
3 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Heritage Foundation discussion on “America’s Indo-Pacific Policy: Prospects During a Critical Time of Change,” with Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and Kim Holmes, executive vice president of Heritage. www.heritage.org/asia/event
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 24
8:15 a.m. 600 14th Street N.W. National Defense Industrial Association breakfast discussion on the latest news and developments in critical electronics technologies, with Joye Purser, deputy director for analysis and innovation for the director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation in the office of the defense secretary, and Matthew Casto, program manager for microelectronics in the office of the defense undersecretary. www.ndia.org/events
8:30 a.m. 700 F Street N.W. The three-day 2019 Atlantic Festival with Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M.; Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Calif.; John Shanahan, director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Tom Arseneault, president and COO of BAE Systems; Michele Flournoy, CEO of WestExec Advisers; Kara Frederick, associate fellow at the Center for a New American Security; Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii; Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.; Rep. Sharice Davids, D-Kan.; Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, D-Pa.; Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va.; Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va.; Afghanistan Ambassador to the United States Roya Rahmani; Swedish Ambassador to the United States Karin Olofsdotter; and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. www.theatlanticfestival.com/agenda
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Brookings Institution discussion on “How Is the Army Modernizing?” with Lt. Gen. Eric Wesley, deputy commanding general of Army Futures Command, and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. www.brookings.edu/events
12 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies debate on “Pivot or Double Down: The Future of Middle East Policy,” with former deputy assistant defense secretary Mara Karlin, director of strategic studies at SAIS, and Peter Mansoor, chair of military history at Ohio State University. sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn. The House Veterans’ Affairs Committee Technology Modernization Subcommittee and the House Armed Services Committee Military Personnel Subcommittee member roundtable discussion with principals from the Defense Department and Veterans Affairs to discuss the DoD Healthcare Management System Modernization and VA Electronic Health Record Modernization programs.
8 p.m. 1212 Cathedral Street, Baltimore. Former secretary of state John Kerry delivers remarks as part of Stevenson University’s “Baltimore Speaker Series.” baltimorespeakers.org
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 25
8 a.m. 700 F Street N.W. Day two of the Atlantic Festival, with former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, R-Calif.; former White House national security adviser Susan Rice, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and House Judiciary Committee ranking member Doug Collins, R-Ga. www.theatlanticfestival.com/agenda
9 a.m. 1615 H Street N.W. U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Procurement and Space Industry Council discussion on “Maritime Security, Trade, and Travel,” with Coast Guard Commandant Karl Schultz, retired Navy Vice Adm. William Burke, and Tom Vecchiolla, president and CEO of ST Engineering North America. www.uschamber.com/event
5:45 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Heritage Foundation discussion on “Veterans in Public Policy: Making the Career Transition,” with Brandt Anderson, national security adviser to Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind.; Colby Kuhns, legislative director to Rep. Paul Cook, R-Calif.; Julio Rosas, journalist at the Washington Examiner; and Thomas Spoehr, director of the Heritage Center for National Defense. www.heritage.org/defense/event
President Trump speaks at the United Nations General Assembly.
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 26
7:30 a.m. 610 F Street N.W. Day three of the Atlantic Festival, with HHS Secretary Alex Azar, former defense secretary James Mattis, and Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-Ill. www.theatlanticfestival.com/agenda
8:50 a.m. 1900 North Quinn Street, Arlington. Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Defense Logistics Conference, with Maj. Gen. Deborah Kotulich, chief of staff at U.S. Transportation Command. www.idga.org/events
12:15 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion on “The Future of Nuclear Arms Control,” with former Irish president Mary Robinson, chair of the Elders; former Norwegian prime minister Gro Harlem Brundtland; and George Perkovich, vice president for studies at CEIP. carnegieendowment.org
12:30 p.m. 1777 F Street N.W. Acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan participates in a discussion on the role of the Homeland Security Department and the challenge of immigration in the United States at the Council on Foreign Relations.
3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. Woodrow Wilson Center discussion on “Atomic Condominium: The Soviet Union and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 1958-1970,” with Jonathan Hunt, lecturer at the University of Southampton. www.wilsoncenter.org/event
4 p.m. 1301 Connecticut Avenue N.W. Institute for Policy Studies discussion on “What Went Wrong? The Unexpected Downturn in Korea-Japan Relations,” with John Feffer, director of Foreign Policy in Focus; Jenny Town, managing editor at 38 North Stimson Center; Stephen Costello, CEO of Asia East; and Emanuel Pastreich, director of the Asia Institute. ips-dc.org/events/what-went-wrong
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 27
8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Space Power to the Warfighter” seminar on “StandUp of the U.S. Space Command,” with Air Force Gen. John Raymond, commander of U.S. Space Command and Air Force Space Command. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
12 p.m. 1763 N Street N.W. The Middle East Institute discussion on “War Crimes in Syria: Identifying Perpetrators and Seeking Justice,” with Wael Sawah, president and director of Pro-Justice; Charles Lister, director of the MEI Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program; Anne Barnard, journalist at the New York Times; and Joyce Karam, Washington correspondent for The National. www.mei.edu/events/war-crimes-syria
1:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance. Defense Secretary Mark Esper welcomes Norway’s Defense Minister Frank Bakke-Jensen to the Pentagon.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all.”
One of the 50 best quotations from former defense secretary Jim Mattis’ new book, as selected by the author of the Washington Examiner’s Daily on Defense newsletter.
