Heavy bombing in Syria reveals Russian ‘ruse’ of withdrawal

At the time President Vladimir Putin, in a surprise visit to a Russian base in Syria, declared victory over the Islamic State and said Russia would begin withdrawing its forces. Observers speculated that Putin wanted to tout the success of the Syrian effort ahead of the next month’s Russian presidential election. Since then, Russian air support of Bashar Assad’s campaign against rebel forces in the north have only intensified, and over the weekend a Russian Su-25 jet was down over rebel territory.

An analysis from the Institute for the Study of War calls the withdrawal “a likely ruse.” Russia has maintained “a constant tempo of airstrikes to protect its assets in western Syria and to support the regime in the east,” the ISW reports. It also notes Russia’s main air base at Latakia on the Syrian coast has come under “sophisticated attacks,” including a drone swarm last month that reportedly damaged at least seven Russian warplanes.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS THREAT: Yesterday’s Syrian and Russian airstrikes in Idlib reportedly hit a hospital and an apartment building, and seemed to include the use of weaponized chlorine gas, the sixth reported incident of chlorine gas use in the past 30 days. The U.S. is urging the international community to demand that Syria end its use of chlorine bombs, and that Russia live up to its pledge to ensure Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile is destroyed.

“We implore the international community to speak with one voice, taking every opportunity to publicly pressure the Assad regime, and its supporters, to cease its use of chemical weapons and hold those responsible accountable for these brutal attacks,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement. “By shielding the Syrian regime from accountability, Russia has not lived up to its commitments. The use of chemical weapons by all parties in Syria must unequivocally stop. The people of Syria are suffering; the rest of the world is watching.”

Last week, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said the U.S. was trying to confirm reports that Assad’s regime has also used deadly sarin nerve gas, and issued a veiled warning hinting at a possible U.S. military response. In April of last year the U.S. launched a volley of cruise missiles against a Syrian airfield after confirming nerve gas use against civilians in the Syrian town of Khan Shaykhun. “We’re on the record and you all have seen how we reacted to that, so they would be ill-advised to go back to violating the chemical convention,” Mattis told Pentagon reporters Friday.

NO IRAQ DRAWDOWN, YET: Next door in Iraq, the U.S. military is denying yesterday’s Associated Press report that a drawdown of U.S. forces is underway in Iraq, and said while the focus of the U.S. support mission is changing, the overall number of troops will remain just over 5,000 for the time being. “We are not signaling any significant drawdown in Iraq at this time,” Eric Pahon, a Pentagon spokesman, told me yesterday. “We’re shifting our focus from combat operations to training operations in order to ensure the lasting defeat of ISIS.”

Later in the day, Brig. Gen. Jonathan Braga, the director of operations for Operation Inherent Resolve, issued a statement. “Our enduring presence as invited guests in Iraq will shift to focus more on policing, border control and military capacity building,” Braga said.

“We’re at a point where ISIS is on the ropes,” Mattis said in his meeting with reporters Friday. “It’s not over yet. We need to keep the pressure on.” Mattis says most of the remaining ISIS fighters in Iraq are hiding either in small concentrations the desert, or are in small sleeper cells. “So we want to stay focused on this,” Mattis said. “They’re on the run.”

AFGHANISTAN AIR WAR MOVES NORTH: As promised, the U.S. has dramatically ramped up its air assault on Taliban targets over the winter in an effort to break their will and compel peace talks to end the more than 16-year war. According to a statement from U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, the air campaign has moved north to target “insurgent revenue sources, training facilities, and support networks.”

The past four days have seen an aggressive bombing of the Taliban in Badakhshan province, where the targets included stolen Afghan National Army vehicles that were being converted to vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. The strikes also demonstrated how the B-52, outfitted with a new rotary launcher, set a new record by dropping two dozen smart bombs on the Taliban. That’s the most guided munitions ever dropped from a single B-52, the statement said.

“The Taliban have nowhere to hide,” boasted U.S. Afghanistan commander Gen. John Nicholson, in a statement. “There will be no safe haven for any terrorist group bent on bringing harm and destruction to this country.”

Air Force Maj. Gen. James Hecker, the NATO air commander for Afghanistan, is scheduled to brief Pentagon reporters from Kabul at 11 a.m. Live-streamed at www.defense.gov/live.

PENCE EN ROUTE TO PYEONGCHANG: Vice President Mike Pence will be stopping in Japan to meet with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe before continuing on to South Korea to represent the U.S. at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, which begin Friday. The White House says Pence will underscore the brutality of the North Korean regime in order to counter the narrative that the North’s decision to march with South Korean athletes and field a joint hockey team represents any normalization while Kim Jong Un continues to thumb his nose at the international community’s demand that he forsake his growing nuclear arsenal. To help make the point, Pence is bringing as his guest the father of Otto Warmbier, the American student who was jailed in North Korea and who died last year after returning to the United States in a coma.

But during a refueling stopover at a U.S. military base in Alaska, Pence didn’t rule out meeting with the North Korean delegation while in South Korea. “We’ll see what happens,” Pence said.

On CNN yesterday, Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen said he thought that would be a mistake, and that Pence should concentrate on mending fences with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. “I don’t think the vice president should use the occasion to meet directly with North Koreans,” Van Hollen said. The Democratic senator called the recent talks between the north and south “a sign of the dysfunction” in the Trump administration’s foreign policy.

“The South Koreans, President Moon, began their overture to North Korea without any communication with the United States. We were caught by surprise when South Korea responded to North Koreans’ overtures with respect to the Olympics,” Van Hollen said. “Whether or not that turns out to be a good idea or a bad idea to have North Korea participate more in the Olympics, it’s a sign that the South Koreans don’t trust us, that they didn’t include us and coordinate those decisions with us.”

DEMS CLAIM ‘BLOODY NOSE’ STRIKE UNCONSTITUTIONAL: A group of Senate Democrats has sent President Trump a letter warning that he might not have the authority to call a so-called “bloody nose” strike on North Korea. “Without congressional authorization a preventative or preemptive U.S. military strike would lack either a Constitutional basis or legal authority,” they wrote.

The group includes Ben Cardin, the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as well as Jack Reed, Jeanne Shaheen, Mazie Hirono, Tim Kaine, Elizabeth Warren and Martin Heinrich, who all sit on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Ultimately, it is an enormous gamble to believe that a particular type of limited, preemptive strike will not be met with an escalatory response from Kim Jong Un and neither the United States nor our allies should take that step lightly,” the senators wrote.

The senators also asked the president to explain why Victor Cha’s nomination to be ambassador to South Korea was recently withdrawn by the administration. “While we reserve our rights to provide advice and consent on ambassadorial nominations, it is our understanding that he is an eminently qualified individual to serve at a senior level in the U.S. government,” they wrote to Trump.

Cha, a Georgetown University professor, was dropped from consideration after he voiced doubt about a “bloody nose” strike, the Washington Post reported. He then published an op-ed in the paper warning that such a strategy risked all-out war on the Korean Peninsula.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY, MATTIS AND SELVA AT HASC: At 9:30 a.m. Mattis and Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, begin their testimony to the House Armed Services Committee on the National Defense Strategy and the Nuclear Posture Review. Both strategies are newly unveiled by the Pentagon, so expect several hours of questioning from the large committee membership. At 2 p.m., Mattis gives a closed briefing on the defense strategy to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

SPENDING PING PONG: The House votes today on a bill that couples short-term domestic spending with year-long defense funding, setting up a showdown with the Senate ahead of a Feb. 8 deadline to keep the government open, Susan Ferrechio writes.

In a closed-door meeting late yesterday House Speaker Paul Ryan warned GOP lawmakers to be prepared for a game of “ping pong” with the Senate over the spending bill, which needs to pass by Thursday, when a temporary measure expires.

Republicans in the room urged Ryan not to put a Senate-passed bill on the House floor if defense spending is stripped out in the measure. “I hope we take the grenade, pull the pin out and throw it back at them,” Rep. Bill Posey told GOP leaders, according to meeting attendees.

HYPOXIA HEARING: A House Armed Services subcommittee holds a hearing at 3:30 p.m. on the military’s continuing struggles with hypoxia among fighter, attack and training aircraft pilots. The Tactical Air and Land Forces subcommittee hearing will include testimony from Lt. Gen. Mark Nowland, Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations, Rear Adm. Sara Joyner, the lead on the Navy Physiological Events Action Team, and Clinton Cragg, of NASA’s Engineering and Safety Center.

MISSILES TO FINLAND: The State Department has cleared the sale of Sea Sparrow and Harpoon missiles to Finland, a non-NATO alliance state that has been increasingly concerned about Russian aggression. The munitions could be used on Finland’s Hamina-class fast attack boats and its corvettes, as well as by its coastal batteries, according to the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. The proposed sale includes 68 of the Sea Sparrow missiles worth $112 million and 124 Harpoon variant missiles worth $622 million. Boeing in the principal contractor.

FUNDING THE F-35: Bloomberg is reporting that the Pentagon will request $10.7 billion to buy 77 F-35 joint strike fighters in next year’s fiscal 2019 budget. “The proposal for the Defense Department’s costliest program will be included Feb. 12 as part of a fiscal 2019 base defense budget plan of about $597 billion.” Mattis confirmed last week that the topline request, which also covers nuclear weapons programs that fall under the Energy Department, will be $716 billion. Bloomberg says the request is a victory for Lockheed Martin, noting “It’s close to the 80 planes the Obama administration had projected for fiscal 2019 in its final report on major weapons systems two years ago.”

SINGAPORE AIRSHOW: Asia’s largest aerospace and defense trade show begins today in Singapore. The Singapore Airshow is a chance for U.S. and global defense companies to showcase their products. Sixty-five of the top 100 global aerospace companies including Boeing, Bell Helicopter and Pratt & Whitney will attend. But the most anticipated guest might be the F-35B, the short-takeoff and vertical-landing variant of Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation fighter jet. For the first time, the State Department will also be sending its top official dealing with foreign weapons sales, Ambassador Tina Kaidanow, to ease the way for U.S. business.

“We’re trying to make sure that as we think about expanding markets for American companies, as we think about carving away any obstacles that American companies may encounter as they go overseas and try to sell these systems, that we are doing everything we can as a government to ensure that those obstacles are cleared away, that we are working collaboratively with our companies in the U.S. to ensure that there is ample opportunity for them to go out there and make powerful change possible for the really excellent systems that we provide,” Kaidanow told reporters. “This Singapore Airshow is a primo example of exactly that and we want to be supportive and that’s why I am here.”

‘DISTURBING’ ISIS AIRLINE THREAT: The Islamic State group and its bomb makers are intent on blowing up passenger jets and immediate action is needed to shore up airport security, said Rep. Michael McCaul, the House Homeland Security Committee chairman. “I can’t go into the classified space of where they are but we know they are out there. We know they’re intent on making these bombs. The threat was actually worse than I thought,” said McCaul, who delivered the warning as part of a national security address at George Washington University on Monday. “I found this to actually be one of the most disturbing, and quite frankly what keeps you up at night, question.” The group’s virtual military defeat in Iraq and Syria has led its fighters and bomb makers to flee across the globe where they continue to plot such attacks, he said.

BAD BOOKKEEPING: A division of the Department of Defense lost track of more than $800 million in construction projects financed for the Army Corps of Engineers and other agencies, according to an internal audit. The audit, conducted by Ernst & Young and obtained by Politico, found the Defense Logistics Agency had misstatements on its books related to construction projects that totaled at least $465 million. The audit also found the Defense Logistics Agency lacked sufficient documentation for $384 million in spending for construction projects deemed “in progress.”

GITMO FIRING: Mattis has fired the top official overseeing the trials of five men being held at Guantánamo Bay who have been accused of plotting the 9/11 attacks. Harvey Rishikof is an attorney with experience in national security law, but with no military experience. According to the Miami Herald, there is no known reason for Mattis’ decision to fire the man he named convening authority for the military commission last April.

Two Pentagon lawyers have replaced Rishikof and Gary Brown, a legal adviser for military commissions who was fired by acting general counsel William Castle. Tom Crosson, a spokesman for the Department of Defense, said the two men were removed from their positions on Monday.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense One: Meet the Believers: The Afghanistan War’s US Commanders are Ready For a Reboot

Military Times: Deploy or get out: New Pentagon plan could boot thousands of non-deployable troops

Air Force Times: US, coalition form new advisory team to better train, assist Iraqi air force

Japan Times: Abe to U.S. and South Korea: Don’t scale down joint military drill

Defense and Aerospace Report: US Navy’s Spencer on FY19 DoD Budget Request, Modernization, Training, Culture

Roll Call: Opinion: They Voted for Caps. Now They Want More Defense Spending

Wall Street Journal: Islamic State’s Syrian Legacy: Hidden Explosives

USA Today: North Korea used Berlin embassy to acquire nuclear tech: German spy chief

New York Times: Videos of Syrian Militia Abusing Kurdish Fighter’s Corpse Stir Outrage

War on the Rocks: Command and Control in the Nuclear Posture Review: Right Problem, Wrong Solution

CNN: Pentagon mistakenly labels Taiwan as part of China in nuclear report

Defense News: Math doesn’t add up for budget to support Trump military buildup

USNI News: Senior Leaders Taking First Steps in Long Road to Reform Surface Navy

Foreign Policy: Draft DHS Report Called for Long-Term Surveillance of Sunni Muslim Immigrants

Defense One: How Trump Just Might Close Guantanamo Prison

Calendar

TUESDAY | FEB. 6

8 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. The Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International’s conference: Unmanned Systems—Defense. Protection. Security. thedefenseshow.org

9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Russia’s Cyber Operations in Ukraine and Beyond with Rep. Will Hurd. atlanticcouncil.org

9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russia’s Post-Authoritarian Future: A Conversation with Ksenia Sobchak. csis.org

9:30 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testify on the National Defense Strategy and the Nuclear Posture Review. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. U.S. Cyber Diplomacy in an Era of Growing Threats. foreignaffairs.house.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. The Administration’s South Asia Strategy on Afghanistan with John Sullivan, deputy secretary of state. foreign.senate.gov

10 a.m. House Visitor Center 210. Ensuring Effective and Reliable Alerts and Warnings. homeland.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Subcommittee Hearing on Syria: Which Way Forward? foreignaffairs.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2200. Subcommittee Hearing on U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Reassessing Priorities Amid Continued Challenges. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2:30 p.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Closed briefing on the National Defense Strategy with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. armed-services.senate.gov

2:30 p.m. Dirksen 562. Subcommittee Hearing on Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Ways of Funding Government: Exploring the Cost to Taxpayers of Spending Uncertainty caused by Governing through Continuing Resolutions, Giant Omnibus Spending Bills, and Shutdown Crises. hsgac.senate.gov

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Addressing Physiological Episodes in Fighter, Attack, and Training Aircraft with Lt. Gen. Mark Nowland, Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations, and Rear Adm. Sara Joyner, Navy Physiological Events Action Team Lead. armedservices.house.gov

WEDNESDAY | FEB. 7

8 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. The Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International’s conference: Unmanned Systems—Defense. Protection. Security with Mary Miller, with the office of undersecretary of defense for research and engineering. thedefenseshow.org

9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee on Senior Leader Misconduct: Prevention and Accountability with the vice chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, as well as the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps. armedservices.house.gov

9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Ground Truth Briefing: Winter Games: What’s Going On With North and South Korea? wilsoncenter.org

10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW. International Cybersecurity Leaders Forum: The U.S.-Ukraine Cybersecurity Partnership with Rep. Brendan Boyle. gwu.edu

12:15 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. How to Interpret Nuclear Crises: From Kargil to North Korea. stimson.org

2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Defending the Homeland: Department of Defense’s Role in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction with Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for Homeland Defense And Global Security, and Lt. Gen. Joseph Osterman. armed-services.senate.gov

3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Rise and Fall of the ABM Treaty: Missile Defense and the U.S.-Russia Relationship. csis.org

3:30 p.m. Russell 222. Subcommittee hearing on Army Modernization. armed-services.senate.gov

5 p.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Closed hearing on Turkey and the way ahead. foreign.senate.gov

THURSDAY | FEB. 8

7 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Executive Breakfast. ndia.org

8 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. The Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International’s conference: Unmanned Systems—Defense. Protection. Security. thedefenseshow.org

1:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Next steps for the Army: A conversation with Under Secretary Ryan McCarthy. brookings.edu

4:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Cyber Mercenaries: States and Hackers. carnegieendownment.org

5:15 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. War Powers and Military Force with John Yoo, former deputy assistant U.S. attorney general. atlanticcouncil.org

FRIDAY | FEB. 9

10 a.m. 740 15th St. NW. ‘Ultimate Deal’ or Ultimate Demise? Palestinian-Israeli Peace Under Trump. newamerica.org

11:30 a.m. Syrian Impasse: America Between Turkey and the Kurds. defenddemocracy.org

12 noon. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace. wilsoncenter.org

3:50 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. Book discussion of “Directorate S: America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan” with author Steve Coll. newamerica.org

MONDAY | FEB. 12

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Priorities Discussion with Matthew Donovan, Under Secretary of the Air Force. mitchellaerospacepower.org

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review: Continuity and change with David Trachtenberg, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. brookings.edu

2 p.m. Oversight and Accountability in U.S. Security Sector Assistance: Seeking Return on Investment with Rep. Adam Smith, Brig. Gen. Antonio Fletcher of U.S. Southern Command, and Adam Barker, a professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. csis.org

TUESDAY | FEB. 13

9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A Kennan for Our Times: Celebrating the Legacy of George F. Kennan. wilsoncenter.org

12 noon. 1030 15th St. NW. Iraq’s Energy Potential: Opportunities and Challenges. atlanticcouncil.org

12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Containing Russia: How to Respond to Moscow’s Intervention in U.S. Democracy and Growing Geopolitical Challenge. cfr.org

2:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Changing Patterns of Extremism and Terrorism in Pakistan. wilsoncenter.org