POSSIBLE 6TH NORTH KOREAN NUKE TEST: South Korean media is reporting this morning that there are signs of activity at North Korea’s nuclear test site in the far north, raising concerns that Kim Jong Un may be preparing another underground nuclear test. North Korea sent a formal letter of protest to the United Nations complaining that the current U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises are a rehearsal for “its evil intention of occupying the North by force,” and called the drills “nothing short of hysteric conduct to add fuel to the raging flames,” according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
The exercises dubbed Ulchi Freedom Guardian are set to end Thursday, and last Friday, North Korea launched some missiles in apparent response. Initially, U.S Pacific command said two of the short-range projectiles failed in flight, but later retracted that statement. Upon further review it appears the North fired rockets from the same kind of multiple launch system the North has arrayed along the DMZ to target Seoul. Last year, shortly after the annual U.S.-South Korean exercises ended, North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test. The activity around the site this year could indicate another test, or it could just be staged as part of the North’s bellicose propaganda campaign.
On Fox yesterday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stuck to his earlier statement that it appeared North Korea was toning down its rhetoric, and indicating that maybe it was backing off from provocative actions. While he said the latest missile test was clearly a belligerent act, when pressed if he and the president were misreading Kim, Tillerson said he didn’t think so. “I think it’s going to take some time to tell,” Tillerson said. “Clearly, they are still messaging us as well that they are not prepared to completely back away from their position.”
On Wednesday, South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-Moo, who met with U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford in Seoul two weeks ago, is scheduled to meet with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis at the Pentagon for consultations.
AFGHANISTAN STRATEGY QUESTIONED: In an interview airing on NPR this morning, Richard Armitage, who was deputy secretary of state during the George W. Bush administration, argues it’s time to pull most U.S. troops out of Afghanistan, and leave just a small commando force behind to target the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. “We can train Afghan soldiers again. We can equip Afghan soldiers again, but what we can’t do is make the Afghan government worthy of their sacrifice. They’re not willing to die for that government,” Armitage told NPR’s “Morning Edition.” “I think the bulk of the military presence should go. A counter-terrorism force remaining in place makes sense politically and practically in terms of protection of our homeland, but nothing in putting 4,000 more troops in is going to address the central problems of the Afghan government.”
Armitage, who was at the State Department during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, says in hindsight he believes that war was a mistake. “What we did wrong is going to Iraq, and when we did that we took our eye off the ball in Afghanistan,” he said. “That’s what I’d like to have back.”
CONFRONTING THE RUSSIANS: On CBS yesterday, Tom Donilon, former national security adviser under President Barack Obama, said the missing element from President Trump’s Afghanistan speech was any mention of the role Russians played in supplying arms to the Taliban. “It’s a lot more serious than not being helpful,” Donilon said on “Face the Nation.” “It’s a violation of Security Council resolutions … it’s arming the enemy of our soldiers on the ground in Afghanistan. It’s a very serious matter I think we should be much more aggressive about confronting.” On the same program, retired Adm. James “Sandy” Winnefeld, former Joint Chiefs vice chairman, said Americans should not lose sight of the most important goal of the Afghanistan mission, keeping the fractious country from becoming a haven for terrorists to plot against America. “We don’t know when this is going to end. It’s hard to put a hard stop on it. But the principle objective of preventing attacks on the United States emanating from that region is there,” Winnefeld said.
DEFENDING THE STRATEGY: Meanwhile the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. John “Mick” Nicholson, the chief architect of the Trump plan, has been effusive in his praise of the president’s decision to back his strategy, which Nicholson says sends a clear message to the Taliban that they can can’t win militarily, can’t outwait the U.S., and will have to negotiate if they ever want the fighting to end. A key question: Can the U.S. bomb the Taliban to the peace table?
On Fox, Tillerson admitted the strategy is not so much about total victory over the Taliban, but shifting the momentum back to the Afghan forces to break the political stalemate. “All of this is directed at sending a message to the Taliban that we are not going anywhere. We’re going to be here. We’re going to continue to fight for the Afghan government, support the Afghan security forces,” Tillerson said. “And what needs to happen is the Taliban needs to engage with Afghan government in a process of reconciliation and developing a way to govern the country in the future.”
ISIS ROUTED IN TAL AFAR: Reports from northern Iraq indicate Iraqi Security Forces have prevailed in a relatively quick victory over ISIS forces in Tal Afar. The rapid collapse of ISIS forces after just over a week shows, after the expectation of another fierce fight, that the terrorist group is on the ropes. Col. Ryan Dillon told the Washington Examiner this morning that while he cannot confirm that all areas of the city have been cleared, “The ISF have met most of their military objectives in the city.” Dillion says it will be up to the Iraqi government to declare victory, which could happen today. “There still remains areas in the surrounding area of Tal Afar, particularly to the north, that the ISF will have to clear to eliminate ISIS holdouts and to prevent them from threatening Tal Afar in the future,” Dillon told us.
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HARVEY DEVASTATES HOUSTON: With another 15 to 25 inches of rain forecast to fall on Houston, the catastrophic flood waters from Tropical Storm Harvey continue to rise and inflict misery of residents of southeastern Texas. Trump is scheduled to visit Texas tomorrow, but is expected to avoid the hardest hit areas to avoid interfering with rescue efforts. About 3,000 state and National Guardsmen have been called up by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who told CNN yesterday that he’s getting “absolutely everything we need,” from Washington. “We’re having a White House that is being very responsive, very concerned about the people of Texas and a tremendous help to us,” Abbott said.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has requested a “search and rescue package” from the Defense Department, which includes nine helicopters, two fixed wing aircraft and refuelers, and pararescue teams from Joint Reserve Air Force Base in Fort Worth, Texas. In addition, DoD was asked to provide 11 generators and 50,000 gallons of gas and 50,000 gallons diesel to Fort Hood, Texas.
STOPGAP BUDGET COMING AMID CRASHES: Congress appears ready to punt on the annual defense budget with another stop-gap measure again this fall, despite warnings from the military and a string of deadly Navy and Marine Corps crashes and collisions this summer. House Speaker Paul Ryan has said a continuing budget resolution, or CR, will “probably be necessary” to buy lawmakers more time. The Pentagon and Congress have been eying a defense budget hike to shore up depleted forces but a CR would leave them locked into current funding levels. The goal is “to rebuild the U.S. armed forces and improve lethality,” Christopher Sherwood, a Defense Department spokesman, said. “A short-term CR will delay achieving that goal. A long-term CR will make that goal unachievable.”
READINESS SUFFERING: It’s getting harder not to draw a straight line from years of congressionally-imposed budget caps, the inexorable decline in readiness, and concurrent increase in deadly accidents. In June, Mattis testified to Congress that instability in defense funding and lawmakers’ use of 30 continuing resolutions in the past decade are wearing down the services and putting troops’ lives at risk. Since then, a string of deadly summer mishaps, including two Navy ship collisions that killed a total of 17 sailors in the Pacific, two Marine Corps aircraft crashes that killed 19 troops, and two Black Hawk crashes that killed as many as six soldiers, have raised questions over whether the incidents are evidence of overstressed forces. Rep. Mac Thornberry, the House Armed Services chairman, warned that the Navy and Marines “have had to take a knee” and that increased operations and funding cuts could be to blame. “These are just the conditions that can lead to an increase in the kinds of accidents we are witnessing,” he said.
WILSON IS WORRIED: Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said her service is under “tremendous strain” and she is worried about whether it is ready to fight adversaries with developed air defenses. The Air Force has been focused on waging air campaigns in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, where U.S. air power easily dominates. It’s also been managing U.S. nuclear weapons, Wilson said. “So what happens if there is a circumstance that is heavily contested? I worry about that. I think we should all worry about that,” she said, because a lack of readiness for a high-end conflict with advanced adversaries such as China, Iran and Russia could lead to higher Air Force casualties. “That doesn’t mean we won’t go, it means fewer will come back. I think we need to understand that,” she said.
REMAINS RECOVERED: Last night 7th Fleet announced that Navy and Marine Corps divers have now recovered the remains of all 10 sailors who died in the USS John S. McCain collision. At the same time, the Army has declared dead three of the five crew members who were aboard a Black Hawk that went down in the ocean off Hawaii during night training Aug. 15.
The crew members who were identified through DNA are 1st Lt. Kathryn M. Bailey, Staff Sgt. Abigail R. Milam and Sgt. Michael L. Nelson, all members of the same company in the 25th Infantry Division combat aviation brigade. The remaining two unidentified crew members on the flight officially remain DUSTWUN, or duty status – whereabouts unknown, after extensive search and recovery efforts by the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard, the division said.
The Marine Corps said it recovered the bodies of all three Marines who were killed this month when an MV-22 Osprey aircraft crashed off the coast of Australia, part of the string of deadly aviation and naval mishaps this summer. The remains of Capt. Benjamin R. Cross were sent to Hickam Air Force Base in Hawaii to join the remains of two enlisted Marines, Cpl. Nathaniel F. Ordway and Lance Cpl. Ruben P. Velasco, which were recovered earlier.
ANOTHER BLACK HAWK DOWN: One American service member is missing after a Black Hawk helicopter he was in with five others crashed off the coast of Yemen Friday evening. U.S. Central Command said the crash happened during a training exercise about 7 p.m. Yemen time Friday about 20 miles off the southern coast of Yemen. American forces are searching for the service member. A search party had already rescued five others who were with him.
‘HOLD THE LINE’: Mattis was thanking members of the U.S. armed services during a recent overseas trips when, during an impromptu speech, he urged them to “hold the line” as the country deals with rising political and racial tensions. “The only way this great big experiment you and I call America is going to survive is because we got tough hombres like you,” Mattis said in a video shared on “U.S. Army W.T.F! moments” Facebook page.
After referencing the Sept. 11 attacks, the defense secretary encouraged the service members to keep fighting because they “don’t freaking scare.” Mattis said the troops are “a great example for our country right now,” briefly touching on, without naming, issues at home which he stressed don’t impact the military. “Just hold the line until our country gets back to understanding and respecting each other,” Mattis said. You can see watch the video here.
AND WHAT WAS TILLERSON’S MESSAGE? During his appearance on Fox yesterday, Tillerson refused to be pinned down on whether Trump’s statements following violence in Charlottesville, Va., reflected American values. Tillerson was pressed by host Chris Wallace about the United Nations condemning Trump’s comments that “many sides” were responsible for the violence in Charlottesville, where a woman protesting white supremacists was killed when a man who identified with a neo-Nazi group drove his vehicle into a crowd, injuring dozens of others.
Tillerson said there should be no doubt about whether the American people or the American government believes in the country’s founding values that all people are created equal. “I don’t believe anyone doubts the American people’s values or the commitment of the American government or the government’s agencies to advance those values and to defend those values,” he said. Wallace responded, “And the president’s values?” “The president speaks for himself, Chris,” Tillerson said.
SOMALI CIVILIAN INVESTIGATION: The U.S. military said Friday it was assessing reports that Somali army forces accompanied by U.S. troops shot 10 civilians including three children in a raid. U.S. Africa Command issued a statement saying it was “aware of civilian casualty allegations near Bariire,” a town west of the capital Mogadishu.
“We take any allegations of civilian casualties seriously, and per standard, we are conducting an assessment into the situation to determine the facts on the ground,” the command said. The command confirmed that the Somali army was conducting an operation in the area with the support of U.S. forces.
VENEZUELA INVASION UNLIKELY: National security adviser H.R. McMaster said Friday that there is no imminent threat of U.S. military action in Venezuela, on the same day the U.S. rolled out new economic sanctions. Trump initially floated what he called a “military option” for Venezuela this month when he told reporters in New Jersey: “We have many options for Venezuela including a possible military option if necessary.”
Venezuela is run by socialist President Nicolas Maduro, who is the target of mass protests as the nation’s economy tanks. Maduro’s allies have created a Constituent Assembly to circumvent the opposition-held National Assembly. But McMaster clarified on Friday that “obviously any decision would be in conjunction with our partners in the region, and no military actions are anticipated in the near future.”
THE TRANS BAN IS OFFICIAL: Trump on Friday ordered the Pentagon to drop plans to recruit transgender troops, halt their gender-related medical treatment and determine within six months whether those currently serving can remain in the military.
The president’s memorandum follows his series of tweets last month declaring transgender troops would no longer be allowed to serve in any capacity and is aimed at rolling back the Obama administration’s policy of open transgender service implemented last year for the Defense Department and Coast Guard, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, a senior White House official said.
“In President Trump’s judgment, the previous administration failed to identify a sufficient basis to conclude that terminating the DoD and DHS long-standing policy and practice would not hinder military effectiveness or lethality, disrupt unit cohesion, tax military resources, etc.,” said the official, who briefed reporters on the memorandum. Read the full memo here.
ZINKE’S DAUGHTER GOES OFF: Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s daughter went after Trump following his announcement of the transgender military ban, calling the president a “disgrace.”
“This veteran says sit down and shut the fuck up, you know-nothing, never-served piece of shit,” Jennifer Detlefsen wrote in an Instagram post in July that was widely circulated Friday. Like her father, Detlefsen is a Navy veteran and was frequently mentioned by Zinke as he ran for reelection in the House.
MILITARY GEAR BACK TO COPS: Trump is planning to roll back another one of former Obama’s executive orders that kept excess military equipment from going to police departments. USA Today reported Sunday documents show Trump would allow armored vehicles, large-caliber weapons, ammunition and other equipment to go to police departments that request it through a federal program. Obama had stopped the program in the wake of the protests in Ferguson, Mo.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions is scheduled to make a criminal justice address on Monday to the Fraternal Order of Police. The report speculates he may be outlining the program there.
GORKA RESIGNED … OR WAS FIRED: Trump’s deputy assistant, Sebastian Gorka, has parted ways with the White House, but while the Trump administration claims Gorka did not resign, he tells the Washington Examiner that he did. In his resignation letter, he expressed support for Trump but lamented that “it is clear to me that forces that do not support the MAGA promise are — for now — ascendant within the White House.”
A White House official rejected the claim that he resigned. “Sebastian Gorka did not resign, but I can confirm he no longer works at the White House.”
However, in a pair of text message exchanges, Gorka confirmed to the Washington Examiner that he did indeed resign. “How disappointing. I resigned,” he said in one text. Gorka said that he’s on vacation until Monday. In a separate text message, Gorka said he told White House chief of staff John Kelly “today and emailed him today” about his resignation. “It’s very disappointing that someone wished to spin this,” he added.
TILLERSON’S RESPONSE: Tillerson slammed Gorka yesterday, saying his criticism of the Trump administration came from “a lack of understanding” of the president’s foreign policy goals.
Gorka’s resignation letter cited Trump’s Afghanistan speech as evidence that he was being led astray by White House aides. “This was made patently obvious as I read the text of your speech on Afghanistan this week,” Gorka wrote. “The fact that those who drafted and approved the speech removed any mention of Radical Islam or radical Islamic terrorism proves that a crucial element of your presidential campaign has been lost.”
“I think he’s completely wrong,” Tillerson told Fox News’ Wallace. “And it shows a lack of understanding of the president’s broader policy when it comes to protecting Americans at home and abroad.”
THE RUNDOWN
New York Times: Lebanese army, Hezbollah and Syrian army declare cease-fire with ISIS
Navy Times: Maybe today’s Navy is just not very good at driving ships
New York Times: Fatigue and Training Gaps Spell Disaster at Sea, Sailors Warn
Washington Post: Black Hawk helicopter that crashed off Yemen belonged to elite Special Operations air unit
The Diplomat: China And Saudi Arabia Sign $70 Billion In New Deals
Politico: Pentagon’s concealment of total troops in war zones under fire
Defense News: Pakistan’s trump card over Trump’s Afghanistan strategy
Task and Purpose: Military bases’ contamination will affect water for generations
Stars and Stripes: Analysis: Muted response to N. Korean missile test may suggest hopes for easing tensions
New York Times: Trump Forges Ahead on Costly Nuclear Overhaul
Defense News: Interview: David Norquist, Defense Department Comptroller
Reuters: Dozens killed, wounded by car bomb in Afghan province
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUG. 30
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Iran’s nuclear, regional and proxy challenges. heritage.org
THURSDAY | AUG. 31
11 a.m. 46870 Tate Road. C4ISR August luncheon with Capt. Jason Lopez, the program manager of the Naval Aviation Training Systems Program Office. ndia.org
