SERIOUS SYRIA QUESTIONS: As the U.S. prepares a new, more aggressive strategy to defeat the Islamic State in its self-proclaimed capital in Raqqa, Syria, the biggest planning problem isn’t ISIS, or Bashar Assad or the Russians. It’s Turkey. There is little doubt that the offensive to liberate Raqqa will require more troops, more firepower, and more logistical support than the ragtag Syrian Arab Coalition can muster. The Obama administration was on the verge of arming the largely Kurdish force, which has proven to be the most effective fighting force against ISIS in Syria, but NATO ally Turkey is adamantly opposed to the plan. It considers some of the Kurdish YPG (People’s Protection Units) fighters to be terrorists, linked to the outlawed PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) a separatist group labeled a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” by the U.S. State Department.
The U.S. could essentially abandon the Syrian Kurds, and go with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s offer to send troops and artillery to Raqqa as well as setting up “safe zones” in the north. But that would punish the one group that up to now has been America’s most reliable ally on the ground.
It’s a diplomatic problem as much as a military one, but so far the State Department has been largely AWOL. No senior positions under the secretary have been filled, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s public comments have been limited to a short declaration that cooperation with Russia depends on finding common ground.
Into that vacuum, Sen. John McCain has jumped feet first, meeting with Erdogan this week in Ankara, saying his plan should be seriously considered, and making a secret foray into an area of northern Syria controlled by Kurdish fighters. “[McCain] traveled to northern Syria last week to visit U.S. forces deployed there and to discuss the counter-ISIL campaign and ongoing operations to retake Raqqa,” McCain spokeswoman Julie Tarallo told the Wall Street Journal.
The U.S. military insists its overarching strategy of using local forces, not large numbers of U.S. combat troops to topple ISIS, is not changing. “We’re working by, with and through the Iraqi Security Forces in Iraq and then our partners in Syria,” Col. John Dorrian, the chief U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, told Pentagon reporters yesterday. “That fundamental principle isn’t going to change.” But the question is, who will be the local partners, the Kurds or the Turks? President Trump’s executive order for a new strategy specifically called for “identification of new coalition partners in the fight against ISIS.” Whichever way the U.S. goes, it’s increasingly clear it will require more U.S. advisers, spotters and fire support on the ground in Syria.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford has been a key player in drawing up the new strategy, but he’s keeping his cards close to the vest. We’ll be watching any hints of what he’s thinking when he speaks at the Brookings Institution 10 a.m. talking about global threats and America’s priorities for national security. Brookings is not streaming the event online, but C-SPAN is here.
HAPPENING NOW: Meanwhile in Iraq the offensive to liberate the rest of Mosul is in high gear, with Iraqi forces closing in on a key objective, the airport. An Iraqi military spokesman tells the AP that Iraqi special forces have entered a sprawling military base next to Mosul’s airport on the southern edge of the city. Today is Day 5 of the second phase of the operation to liberate western Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, which has been under ISIS rule since the summer of 2014.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Dunford is not the only four-star speaking this morning. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein is up first, talking about the challenges facing the Air Force in the next war at 9 a.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It’ll be livestreamed here. Yesterday, the Air Force said it is still working on its part of the supplemental budget request that is due March 1. No details were released, but as with the other services, the emphasis is on addressing urgent readiness needs, such as increasing flight hours for pilots.
ABOUT THAT $1 BILLION SAVINGS: An Air Force spokesman yesterday was at a loss to explain how Trump would be able to pare $1 billion of the price tag of the next Air Force One when so far only $172 million has been on preliminary “risk reduction activities.” One way to reduce the price of the modified Boeing 747 would be to change the requirements for the presidential flying command center, but Col. Pat Ryder said the Air Force has not been notified of any changes to the preliminary design contract. Ryder noted that the White House sets the requirements for the plane, and the Air Force is the acquisition authority. Ryder admitted the Air Force won’t know the total program cost until sometime next year. Asked by a reporter, “How do you save $1 billion when you don’t know what the cost is?” Ryder joked, “Next question?”
Obviously a lowly colonel at the Pentagon doesn’t want to be seen as disputing anything his commander in chief is saying, so in explaining the need for two Air Force One 747s — something Trump questioned last week — Ryder chose his words carefully. “Philosophically speaking, having two aircraft gives you the flexibility you need to ensure you meet the mission requirements, which is to safely and securely transport the president to wherever he need to be worldwide,” Ryder said. “Having another aircraft gives you the ability to put one into phased maintenance when you need to, or if there are issues with that aircraft, you have options and alternatives.”
ALSO HAPPENING TODAY: U.N.-mediated peace talks get underway in Geneva amid rock bottom expectations that they will lead to an end to Syria’s six-year civil war anytime soon. Mediator Staffan de Mistura has told Reuters he does not expect any immediate breakthrough but was hoping for productive talks to relaunch the peace process. De Mistura also said Russia, which backs Assad, has asked his government to “silence their own skies in the areas touched by the ceasefire” during the talks.
COATS GETS HIS DAY: The Senate Intelligence Committee has scheduled the confirmation hearing for former Sen. Dan Coats for next Tuesday to testify before his old colleagues on his qualifications to be director of national intelligence. Look for the hearing to focus on Trump’s often contentious relationship with the intelligence community, which some say is hurting morale.
A TRUMP WAR: A new NBC/SurveyMonkey poll found two-thirds of U.S. adults are worried the U.S. will be dragged into war during Trump’s first term in office. The Feb. 13-19 survey concluded 66 percent of people think the country will become engaged in a “major war” in the next four years, while 33 percent do not believe so.
THREAT TO DEMOCRACY: Former U.S. special operations commander retired Adm. Bill McRaven is now University of Texas System chancellor, and in a speech Tuesday night he called Trump’s criticism of “the fake news media” as “the enemy of the American people” a sentiment that “may be the greatest threat to democracy in my lifetime,” according to the Austin American-Statesman. McRaven, who oversaw the raid that killed Obama bin Laden in 2011, was giving a lecture at UT’s Belo Center for New Media, reportedly saying said the country needs journalists now more than ever and they must continue to hold others accountable.
SMITTEN WITH PUTIN: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favorable rating in the United States is rising thanks to improved standing among Republicans, according to a new poll. Gallup reported Putin’s favorable rating among American voters went from 13 percent in 2015 to 22 percent in 2017. That’s mostly due to a rise in how Republicans are viewing the Russian strongman. In 2015, 12 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Putin; that number is 32 percent now. Among independents, Putin’s favorable rating is also up, going from 12 percent in 2015 to 23 percent in 2017.
CHILD CARE PROBLEM: Upon hearing that a U.S. military child care center in Germany was closing, ostensibly because of the civilian hiring freeze, Democratic Rep. Adam Smith, ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, fired off an angry press release blasting Trump. “That hiring freeze has hurt military readiness and it is now hurting military families by depriving them of the support they need to do their jobs,” Smith said. “This has to stop.” The only problem is the hiring freeze specifically exempts child care workers, under guidance issued by Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work Feb.1. This seems to be an isolated case in which someone didn’t get the word. A Pentagon spokesman said DoD is working to ensure that all installations are taking advantage of the ability to seek exemptions.
THE RUNDOWN
CNN: State Department silent while other countries shape the message
Long War Journal: Ex-Guantanamo detainee carried out suicide attack near Mosul, Iraq
Defense One: Mattis Takes on the Pentagon Bureaucracy
San Diego Union: Pentagon brass demand culture change, innovations in buying weapons
Bloomberg: Trump’s Plan To Compete Jets ‘Doesn’t Make Sense’ To Key Republican
UPI: Charles Woodburn to take over as BAE Systems CEO
War on the Rocks: Counter-terrorism from Bush to Obama to Trump
The Hill: Pentagon mulling split of NSA, Cyber Command
Defense News: Commentary: The U.S. Air Force’s new push to brace for war in space
War is Boring: Reviving Cold War Doomsday Devices Could Patch America’s Broken Nuclear Controls
Defense News: Turkey mulls purchase of Russian S-400 air defense system
UPI: Boeing to provide C-17 training for UAE
Military.com: Strike on ISIS Drone Cell Highlights Airman’s Novel Intel Methods
New York Times: Turkey Allows Women in Military to Wear Hijabs, in Cultural Shift
Calendar
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23
8 a.m. 1800 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington, Va. Allison Stiller, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition, speaks at a Navy League breakfast event. navyleague.org
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein speaks at a military strategy forum. csis.org
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford talks about global threats and U.S. national security priorities. brookings.edu
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Al Mauroni, director of the U.S. Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies at Maxwell Air Force Base, talks about countering weapons of mass destruction. heritage.org
12 p.m. Rayburn 2168. Cato Institute experts talk about whether it’s time to conduct another round of base realignment and closures. cato.org
1 p.m. Livestream. The Council on Foreign Relations holds a panel discussion on the future of the Iran nuclear deal. cfr.org
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A panel discusses efforts to develop a global standard for drones. stimson.org
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 28
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Two think tank experts testify on the state of Iraq once the battle to retake Mosul is over. foreign.senate.gov
2 p.m. Dirksen 106. Former Sen. Dan Coats appears before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence for his confirmation hearing to be the director of national intelligence. intelligence.senate.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Witnesses from the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute testify on China’s maritime push. foreignaffairs.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 1
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Pentagon officials talk about the future of vertical lift platforms. csis.org
THURSDAY | MARCH 2
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Rep. Joe Wilson talks about the military readiness crisis. aei.org
2 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence holds a closed hearing. intelligence.senate.gov
