SHANAHAN IN AFGHANISTAN: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan arrived in Kabul today, the first stop in a week of travel that will also take him to NATO headquarters in Brussels to discuss with alliance defense ministers the state of U.S peace talks with the Taliban and President Trump’s desire to withdraw thousands of American troops from the NATO-led mission currently supporting the Afghan security forces. Shanahan told reporters traveling with him that he still has no orders from the president to withdraw any of the roughly 15,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, of which half are contributing to the NATO Resolute Support mission and half are assigned to the U.S.-only Freedom’s Sentinel counterterrorism mission. Shanahan meets with Afghan president Ashraf Ghani and brings reassurances that the United States will not cut the Afghan government out of the peace process, despite the fact that talks between U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and the Taliban have proceeded without direct Afghan participation. “Afghans have to decide what Afghanistan looks like,” Shanahan said, according to the AP. This is Shanahan’s first trip to Afghanistan and his first chance to confer face-to-face with Gen. Scott Miller since the latter took over as commander of U.S. and coalition forces last September. PEACE DEAL BY JULY? Speaking in Washington Friday, Khalilzad, the special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, said his goal is to nail down a peace agreement before Afghanistan’s presidential elections, set for July. “There is sufficient time, I believe, where we could reach an agreement,” Khalilzad said in remarks at the United States Institute for Peace. “After many conversations, we have reached an agreement in principle with the Taliban on a framework that would provide guarantees and an enforcement mechanism that no terrorist group — international terrorist group or individuals — would be able to use Afghanistan, the areas that they control and should they be part of a future government, against the United States, its allies, and others,” Khalilzad said, while insisting the objective remains a lasting peace, not simply a fig leaf for the United States to get out. “We will engage the Taliban further to flesh out these commitments they have made. Nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to.” While “a peace agreement can allow withdrawal,” he said, “It is not just the withdrawal agreement that we are seeking.” ISIS’ LAST STAND: Commanders for the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces are predicting they will liberate the Syrian village of Baghouz within days, which will mark the end of ISIS as a “physical caliphate.” Heavy fighting is reported this morning. Ben Wedeman and his CNN crew were forced by a previous ISIS counteroffensive, with heavy mortar and small arms fire, to pull back from the front lines. The fall of Baghouz, when it happens, will mean ISIS no longer controls any territory, but the terrorist group will be far from vanquished. On his flight to Kabul, Shanahan told reporters even though ISIS has been “decimated” in Syria, local security forces will still be needed to ensure they don’t reconstitute. “If something hasn’t been completely eradicated, there is a risk of it returning,” he said. Traveling in the region as well, Gen. Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. Central Command, said ISIS is still a threat. “I’m in line where the intelligence community is on this,” he told reporters on his plane. “They’ve talked about tens of thousands who have been dispersed and disaggregated from the area. So they’re spread from areas from Iraq to other areas in Syria. And they’re dispersed and disaggregated, but there is leadership there. There are fighters there, there are facilitators there.” Meanwhile, Trump tweeted, “The U.S. will soon control 100% of ISIS territory in Syria. @CNN (do you believe this?),” glossing over the fact that it’s very uncertain how long local Syrian forces will control the areas once the United States leaves. Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. |
HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrives today in Budapest, Hungary, first stop on a week-long trip that will also take him to Bratislava, Slovakia; Warsaw, Poland; Brussels, Belgium; and Reykjavik, Iceland. Today he’s scheduled to meet with Hungary’s prime minister, foreign minister, and defense minister to discuss the usual “range of issues,” which in this case includes defense cooperation, support for Ukraine, and ways to counter Russian and Chinese influence. In Warsaw, the United States will co-host, with Poland, the “Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East.” Washington Examiner Foreign Affairs Reporter Joel Gehrke is on the trip with Pompeo and will be providing updates throughout the week. SHANAHAN’S WEEK: Shanahan will also be in Europe all week. He’s due in Brussels for a regular meeting of NATO defense ministers that officially begins Wednesday, where he will no doubt face questions about the U.S. commitment to the ongoing NATO Afghanistan mission and will brief his fellow ministers on his talks with President Ghani and U.S. commanders. From NATO, Shanahan will move to Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference, one of the premier gatherings of security officials from around the world. The conference doesn’t decide anything or issue any communiques, but it is an important forum for the interchange of ideas and will serve to introduce Shanahan to much of the rest of the world. BORDER TALKS FLAILING: With congressional negotiators at an impasse over border security, it’s looking more and more likely that President Trump will have to bypass Congress if he wants to build his border wall. Democrats are not only refusing to agree to the $5.7 billion Trump insists he needs to address what he calls an emergency at the border, they also want to limit the number of immigrants who can be detained by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, ostensibly to force ICE to concentrate on just the most hardened criminals. “I think the talks are stalled right now,” said Sen. Richard Shelby, chairman of the appropriations committee, on Fox News Sunday. “We got some problems with the Democrats dealing with ICE, that is detaining criminals that come into the U.S. and they want a cap on them, we don’t want a cap on that.” SHOWDOWN IN EL PASO: Today Trump will hold a campaign-style rally in El Paso, Texas, to increase pressure on the Democrats to cave. Yesterday he accused them of “behaving, all of a sudden, irrationally,” tweeting, “Not only are they unwilling to give dollars for the obviously needed Wall (they overrode recommendations of Border Patrol experts), but they don’t even want to take muderers [sic] into custody! What’s going on?” On Fox News Channel’s Sunday Morning Futures, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R- S.C., was apoplectic. “I don’t see how in the world President Trump can sign a bill that reduces bed space for violent offenders to make sure they’re deported from the country,” he told Maria Bartiromo. ”I don’t want the president to shut the government down, but a continuing resolution is probably where we will go.” “Is a shutdown entirely off the table? The answer is no,” said Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney on NBC’s Meet The Press. But Mulvaney said rather than going through another painful partial closing of the government, Trump would likely use his executive power to reallocate money from elsewhere in the budget if the congressional compromise ends up short of the $5.7 billion in border wall funding he’s demanding. “That’s probably the most likely outcome. Again, you cannot take a shutdown off the table and you cannot take 5.7 off the table,” said Mulvaney. “But if you end up someplace in the middle, yes, then what you’ll probably see is the president say, yes, OK. And then I’ll go find the money someplace else.” SPARE THE TROOPS: In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Mackenzie Eaglen and Rick Berger of the American Enterprise Institute urge Trump to resist reprogramming military construction funds and using active duty troops to build new barriers. “Using military money to solve an immigration problem is politically foolish, won’t work, and would hurt those in uniform,” they write, noting the law allowing the Pentagon to prioritize construction money in an “emergency” requires use of the armed forces. “Looting the Pentagon construction account would instantly halt dozens of necessary renovations, updates and rebuilds at military bases in the U.S. and abroad. New housing projects for deployed families in Germany and South Korea could stop. Work on new training ranges for troops on Guam might cease, and new construction to help Europe-based troops deter Russia may also pause indefinitely,” Eaglen and Berger write. SERVICE SECRETARIES SING FROM SAME HYMNAL: In a joint appearance at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Friday, the three service secretaries seemed more like “The Three Amigos” as they presented a united front and even occasionally finished each other’s sentences. The Army’s Mark Esper, the Navy’s Richard Spencer, and the the Air Force’s Heather Wilson all were foot-stomping the same message: Consistent, reliable, predictable funding from Congress is the key to maintaining the momentum in rebuilding the U.S. military, which saw readiness plummet under years of spending caps. “There is a consensus, I think bipartisan in the Congress, of the need to provide for the nation’s defense. That top-line growth has made a tremendous difference. And the certainty of timing has made a difference,” said Wilson. “I can only beat the drum harder,” said Spencer. “Consistent funding is the message that we have to have up on the Hill.” “We cannot continue to live off vehicles and equipment that came into the Army when I came into the Army in the 1980s,” said Esper. “If we do not modernize the force now, we risk losing a future conflict against Russia or China. It’s that simple.” KNOWN FOR ‘FREEDOM FRIES,’ WALTER JONES REMEMBERED: Rep. Walter Jones, R-N.C., an initial supporter of the 2003 Iraq invasion who became an outspoken critic and a steadfast opponent of U.S. military intervention abroad, died yesterday on his 76th birthday. After Jones came out in support of the Iraq War resolution in 2002, he led an effort to change the name of “French fries” and “French toast” on the menus in House cafeterias to “freedom fries” and “freedom toast.” But his support for the Iraq War was short-lived, and he voted alongside Democrats in 2006 to withdraw troops from Iraq. His House office wall honored deceased Camp Lejeune service members, and he wrote more than 11,000 letters to the families of troops killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. In a statement, Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said Jones left an “indelible imprint” in his 24 years in Congress. “[H]e was a tireless advocate for American servicemembers, someone who was always willing to put principle above partisanship, and a wonderful colleague. I extend my sincere condolences to his family, friends, and all those whose lives have been affected by his service.” SHANNON KENT: The New York Times has a compelling profile of Shannon Kent, the Navy “cryptologic technician” killed in Syria last month. The 35-year-old mother of two was posthumously promoted to senior chief petty officer. The Times points out that while her job description made her sound like a linguist who worked behind a desk, in fact, “she spent much of her professional life wearing body armor and toting an M4 rifle, a Sig Sauer pistol strapped to her thigh, on operations with Navy SEALs and other elite forces.” “Chief Kent spoke a half-dozen Arabic dialects and four other languages. She was one of the first women to complete the rigorous course required for other troops to accompany Navy SEALs on raids. She could run a 3:30 marathon, do a dozen full-arm-hang pull-ups and march for miles with a 50-pound rucksack. She did this while raising two boys, now ages 3 and 18 months, and, for a time, battling cancer,” the story by Richard Oppel notes. “Kent illustrates an unspoken truth: that for many years women have been doing military jobs as dangerous, secretive and specialized as anything men do.” THE RUNDOWN Washington Examiner: ‘Show of force’: 100 vehicles line one mile of Texas border to deter caravan on other side CNN.com: U.S. Warships Again Challenge Beijing’s Claims In South China Sea Washington Examiner: ‘Deepfakes’ a national security threat Washington Post: U.S., Seoul Reach Stopgap Troop Deal The Atlantic: South Korea Becomes a Testing Ground for Trump’s Grievances With Allies Defense News: The Pentagon Is Flying More Drone Missions Along America’s Border Wall Street Journal: How the Pentagon Countered China’s Designs on Greenland Washington Post: In cloud strategy paper, Pentagon calls for consolidation USNI News: Service Secretaries Say New Weapon Systems Must be More Interoperable Among Branches Washington Post: Matt Golsteyn planned to join the CIA and go to Iraq. Now he faces a murder charge. |
CalendarMONDAY | FEBRUARY 11 2:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. “Venezuela at a Tipping Point: A Conversation with The Honorable Marco Rubio.” www.heritage.org 3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Is Bigger Better? Concentration, Competition, and Defense Contracting Outcomes.” www.csis.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 12 8 a.m. 1st St. N.E. Capitol Hill Visitors Center SVC 201-00. Defense Writers Groups breakfast, featuring Sen. James Inhofe, chairman, Armed Services Committee. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/ 8:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Seventh Annual U.S.-Mexico Security Conference: New Government, Old Challenges in Mexico’s Security Landscape.” www.wilsoncenter.org 8:45 a.m. 529 14th St. N.W. “Course Correction: Toward an Effective and Sustainable China Policy.” www.press.org 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “Iran’s Revolution Turns Forty.” www.atlanticcouncil.org 9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “A conversation on defense policy with Rep. Seth Moulton.” www.brookings.edu 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee hearing: Outside Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence Policy and Posture. Witnesses: Ellen Tauscher, former undersecretary of state for arms control and international security; Bruce Blair, Princeton University; Frank Miller, The Scowcroft Group. https://armedservices.house.gov/ 10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: Venezuela at a Crossroads. foreignaffairs.house.gov 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia. www.heritage.org 11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W., Suite 400. “Autonomy, Technology, and National Security: The Case for Reforming the Missile Technology Control Regime.” www.hudson.org 2 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee hearing: Military Service Academies’ Action Plans to Address the Results of Sexual Assault and Violence Report at the Military Service Academies. https://armedservices.house.gov/ 6 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The European Strategic Landscape after the INF Treaty.” www.sais-jhu.edu WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 13 10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. Book Launch: “Fighting for Peace in Somalia.” www.wilsoncenter.org 12 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “From War to Peace in the Balkans, the Middle East and Ukraine.” www.sais-jhu.edu 2:30 p.m. Dirksen G50. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: Current Condition of the Military Housing Privatization Initiative. www.armed-services.senate.gov THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 14 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. “Building an Effective Approach to Terrorism Prevention.” www.heritage.org FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 15 12 p.m. Rayburn 2075. “Dealing with North and South Korea: Can Washington Square the Circle?” www.cato.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 19 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. A conversation with General David L. Goldfein, chief of staff of the Air Force. www.brookings.edu WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 20 12:15 p.m. 740 15th St N.W. #900. “21st Century Proxy Warfare.” www.newamerica.org 12:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The ‘New Cold War’ Metaphor Makes No Sense.” www.sais-jhu.edu THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 21 8:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. “Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Defense Roundtable Breakfast.” www.ndia.org 11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Gullible Superpower: U.S. Support for Bogus Foreign Democratic Movements.” www.cato.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 26 7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Breakfast with Ryan McCarthy, Under Secretary of the U.S. Army. www.ausa.org 12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave N.E. “Modernizing the U.S. Sea-based Strategic Deterrent Force and the Need for 12 Columbia-class SSBNs.” www.heritage.org WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 27 11 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Drive. Expeditionary Warfare Division Annual Meeting. www.ndia.org THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 28 8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2020 Budget and Policy Forum.” www.csis.org SUNDAY | MARCH 3 10:30 a.m. 8900 Little River Turnpike, Fairfax. Breakfast discussion with rocket scientist behind Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, Dr. Ari Sacher. jnf.org/vabreakfast |
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