Pentagon watchdog warns of post-peace risks facing Afghanistan

The risks in a nutshell:

• Widespread Insecurity
• Underdeveloped Civil Policing Capability
• Endemic Corruption
• Sluggish Economic Growth
• Illicit Narcotics Trade
• Threats to Women’s Rights
• Reintegration of Ex-Combatants
• Restricted Oversight.

Noting that more than 2,400 American troops have lost their lives in Afghanistan and that the United States has spent more than $780 billion in the country, Sopko said, “Every effort must be taken to ensure that the progress purchased with that sacrifice of blood and treasure is not lost because we failed to think about what lies beyond the immediate horizon.”

THE F-35 FLASHPOINT: The stubborn insistence by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he will complete the purchase of advanced Russian S-400 air defenses — in defiance of warnings from the Trump administration that the deal could scuttle Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program and jeopardize relations with NATO allies — is gaining the full attention of Congress.

A bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill yesterday to prohibit the transfer of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft to Turkey until and unless Turkey agrees not to accept delivery of the S-400 anti-aircraft missiles. The measure is cosponsored by James Lankford, R-Okla., Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.

“I remain deeply concerned about their attempts to buy and install the S-400 air defense system from Russia, an adversary of NATO,” said Tillis. “I strongly urge Turkey to cease this deal immediately so we can deliver the F-35 as originally planned and continue to work towards advancing the common interests of our countries.”

GULF WAR AIR WAR ARCHITECT TAKES AIM AT F-15EX: Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, who was the principal attack planner for the 1991 Desert Storm air campaign, has written a scathing takedown of the Pentagon’s rationale for buying upgraded fourth-generation F-15EX fighter jets, at the expense of more fifth generation F-35As.

Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Power Studies, notes the Air Force has said it needs 72 new fighter aircraft a year to rebuild a force that’s too small to do what it’s expected to do.

“Bizarrely, however, the Pentagon’s proposed 2020 budget would deliver just eight F-15EXs in 3 to 3.5 years after contract award,” Deptula writes in Forbes. “Here’s a much better solution: Congress shifts the money from F-15EX to increase F-35A production. By increasing F-35 production from 48/yr. to 60/yr. in 2020, then 78-80 beyond 2020, the Air Force could have an additional 108 F-35s by 2023/24 instead of an anemic additional 8 F-15EXs.”

Depula also questions the whole concept of using the non-stealthy F-15 only in a stand-off role. “That means that after billions of dollars are spent on the F-15EX, for the next 30-40 years, they will be incapable of participating against peer threats — the largest capacity gap in the Air Force’s fighter inventory,” he writes.

And the cost? The F-15EX is about $90 million per copy. The F-35A is running $89 million per plane and is expected to decline to about $80 million in 2020. But it’s the F-35’s higher sustainment costs that make the F-15 cheaper. “That is a questionable assumption as the F-35A program matures, its sustainment costs are headed down to similar levels as F-15s,” argues the veteran air war planner.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: At U.S. Special Operations Command in Tampa, Army Lt. Gen. Richard Clarke will take over from Army Gen. Raymond Thomas, who retires after more than 39 years of service. The change of command ceremony can be viewed live at 2 p.m. at www.defense.gov.

At yesterday’s U.S. Central Command ceremony, Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie assumed command from retiring Army Gen. Joseph Votel. In his valedictory remarks, Votel echoed President Trump’s disdain for endless wars.

“As our president said recently, ‘Great nations don’t fight forever wars.’ And we shouldn’t. It is time to bring these conflicts to a conclusion,” Votel said. “This won’t be as quick as anyone would like, but it can be done.”

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, who presided over the change of command ceremony at MacDill Air Force Base, praised Votel as “a true renaissance man, an unsurpassed leader, warfighter, diplomat, academic, and problem-solver.”

“General Votel has been akin to a 10-foot-tall superhero,” Shanahan said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Netflix has designs on him for the next Marvel series in its lineup.”

ALSO TODAY: Did you know that today is National Vietnam War Veterans Day? President Trump signed the Vietnam War Veterans Recognition Act of 2017, which designated every March 29 to recognize the service and sacrifices of Vietnam veterans and their families.

Acting principal deputy assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs Kim Joiner and Veterans Affairs executive director for public and intergovernmental affairs Gary Tallman will conduct a wreath-laying ceremony at the Vietnam War Memorial on the National Mall.

Nine million Americans, approximately 6.4 million living today, served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces from Nov. 1, 1955, to May 15, 1975, the period that covers U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War.

DoD CIVILIANS GET THEIR RAISE: President Trump has signed an executive order that clears the way for federal workers, including 744,000 DoD civilians, to get the pay increase of up to 1.9 percent Trump agreed to in order to end the 35-day partial government shutdown in January.

Trump had frozen federal pay for 2019, and he’s included nothing for government workers for next year, despite Bureau of Labor statistics showing that the average wage in the private sector went up 3.1 percent in 2018.

By law, uniformed military must get at least an amount equal to the rise in private-sector wages, which is why Trump’s FY 2020 budget includes a 3.1 percent hike for the military next year.

MOON OVER TO WASHINGTON: The White House announced last night that South Korean president Moon Jae-in will meet with President Trump in Washington April 11 as talks have stalled on nuclear disarmament with North Korea.

It will be the first meeting between the two presidents since Trump held his second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Vietnam last month. The negotiations fell apart after it became clear North Korea was insisting on sanctions relief in exchange for dismantling a very small part of its nuclear program.

Moon has helped facilitate the relationship between the United States and North Korea. Trump has complained that America is not reimbursed for the protection it provides to South Korea.

Trump said in February he was canceling joint military exercises with South Korea, citing the expense. Trump scaled back the military drills last summer during the first summit with North Korea in what was seen as a concession to Kim.

TRUMP’S GAME WITH KIM: “Shortly after the success of The Art of the Deal (1987) made Donald Trump a supposed expert on negotiation, he lobbied the George H.W. Bush administration to put him in charge of arms reduction talks with the Soviet Union. The position went instead to Richard Burt, an experienced diplomat and arms control expert. When the two men met at a New York social event, Trump pulled Burt aside to tell him what he would have done — and what Burt should do — to start off the negotiations. Greet the Soviets warmly, he said. Let the delegation get seated and open their papers. Then stand up, put your knuckles on the table, lean over, say ‘Fuck you,’ and walk out of the room.”

So writes former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Jessica T. Mathews in the New York Review of Books. Mathews, now a ­distinguished fellow at Carnegie, says she found the anecdote bizarrely illustrative of Trump’s conviction that bluster and intimidation are universally effective negotiation tactics. “Trump thinks that what works is the unexpected. His goal is to put people off balance, which allows him, he believes, to get his way. This explains his otherwise baffling calls for US policy to be ‘unpredictable.’”

INGALLS TO BUILD 14TH LPD: The Navy has awarded a $1.47 billion, fixed-price incentive contract to Ingalls Shipbuilding for the design and construction of the U.S. Navy amphibious warship LPD 30. The ship will be the 14th in the San Antonio-class built by the shipyard.

“Ingalls looks forward to continuing our strong legacy of providing the men and women of our naval forces with the capable and survivable warships they need and deserve,” Ingalls Shipbuilding president Brian Cuccias said in a press release.

Ingalls has delivered 11 San Antonio-class ships to the Navy and has 2 more under construction. Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) will launch in 2020 and deliver in 2021; the keel for Richard M. McCool Jr. (LPD 29) will be laid later this year. Start of fabrication on LPD 30 is scheduled for 2020.

THE LYIN’ PRINCE: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with the Saudi Arabian prince who lied to senators and lured Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi to his death, the State Department announced Thursday.

Pompeo hosted Prince Khalid bin Salman, younger brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, at the State Department to discuss plans for “countering the Iranian regime’s destabilizing activities” in the Middle East, according to an official summary of their meeting.

Prince Khalid was back in Washington as Saudi Arabia’s deputy defense minister, just months after he gave top lawmakers a transparently false explanation for Khashoggi’s disappearance in a Saudi diplomatic facility when he was ambassador to the United States.

“The secretary congratulated the minister on his new role and looked forward to continuing to work together to advance the U.S.-Saudi partnership,” the State Department bulletin said.

NEW STATE SPOKES: NBC News got the scoop that Morgan Ortagus, counterterrorism expert and until recently a Fox News contributor, is in line to be the new State Department spokeswoman. Ortagus would replace Heather Nauert, an ex-Fox News anchor who was Trump’s pick for U.N. ambassador but withdrew after questions about a nanny she employed who was not permitted to work in the United States.

The 36-year-old is a U.S. Naval Reserve officer and previously worked in public affairs at the U.S. Agency for International Development. From 2008 to 2010, she served as an intelligence analyst for the Treasury’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis, according to the biography on her consulting firm’s website.

FDD ADDS 3-STAR TO ADVISORY BOARD: Retired Army Lt. Gen. Edward Cardon is joining the board of advisers for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Military and Political Power. Cardon had a distinguished 36-year Army career including stints as commanding general of the 2nd Infantry Division in South Korea and commanding general of U.S. Army Cyber Command.

Most recently, he led the task force that helped create Army Futures Command, which is responsible for modernizing the Army.

IT’S ONLY A DRILL: If you see a lot of emergency response personnel in hazmat suits at the Pentagon today, don’t be alarmed. It’s just a drill. The Pentagon Force Protection Agency is conducting a chemical, biological, radiation, and nuclear hazard response exercise near corridor 8 pedestrian bridge and north parking lot, from 9:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.

“During the drill, you may see PFPA CBRN Response Team personnel, wearing protective equipment, using instruments, and collecting samples from surfaces around the Pentagon Corridor 8 Pedestrian Bridge,” said a Pentagon spokesperson. “These actions are part of the drill and pose no harm to any Pentagon occupants or visitors.”

But DON’T TAKE ANY PICTURES! Photography on the Pentagon reservation is strictly prohibited.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Rick Perry approves nuclear exports to Saudi Arabia over Democratic objections

Washington Examiner: U.S. diplomat: Bashar Assad has ‘hamstrung’ talks to end Syrian civil war

Defense One: The ‘Day After’ In Syria Finally Came. But What Comes Next?

Stars and Stripes: Pompeo Wants NATO To Take ‘Actions’ To Help Ukraine

New York Times: As U.S. Tightens Iran Sanctions, Militant Groups and Political Allies Feel the Pain

Wall Street Journal: Russia Defies U.S. Calls To Get Out Of Venezuela

The Diplomat: Shipbuilder Launches New Attack Sub For Russia’s Pacific Fleet

Al-Monitor: Key senator looks to block Apache sale to Egypt over injured American

AP: House votes to condemn Trump’s transgender military ban

Bloomberg: Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Stealth Bomber to Get Procurement Boost

Gulf News: U.S. To Offer India Alternative To Russian S-400 Missile Defence System

Air Force Magazine: B-1 Fleet Grounded After Inspection Identified Issues with Drogue Chute System

The Drive: F-35’s Most Sinister Capability Are Towed Decoys That Unreel From Inside Its Stealthy Skin

Air Force Magazine: USAF Confident Only Two Launch Providers Needed for NSSL

Tampa Bay Times: Meet CentCom’s New Boss: Marine Gen. Kenneth McKenzie Jr. Takes Command

Calendar

FRIDAY | MARCH 29

11:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. U.S. Institute of Peace, “A New Parliament in Iraq,” a discussion with Iraq’s new speaker of the Council of Representatives, Mohammed al-Halbousi. www.usip.org

TUESDAY | APRIL 2

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW. Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies host conference: “The Future of Statecraft.” Keynote by former national security adviser Susan Rice. Panel discussions all day examine the future of great power cooperation, international institutions, and economic statecraft. www.csis.org/events.

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. Army Secretary Mark Esper, Army Chief Gen. Mark Milley, Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, and Air Force Chief Gen. David Goldfein testify before the House Armed Services Committee on their respective FY 2020 budgets. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

11:45 a.m. 201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. The Hudson Institute’s “Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Technology: Implications for U.S. National Security,” with Hudson senior fellow Arthur Herman; Aaron VanDevender, Founders Fund; Elsa Kania, Center for a New American Security; and Hudson senior fellow Sorin Ducaru, a former senior NATO official for emerging security challenges. Register here.

THURSDAY | APRIL 4

11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Hudson Institute Event: “Making Military Cloud a Success: Critical Next Steps for DoD’s IT Strategy.” Speakers: Fred Schneider, professor, Cornell University; and founding chairman, National Academies Forum on Cyber Resilience; William Schneider, senior fellow, Hudson Institute; and Arthur Herman, senior fellow and director, Quantum Alliance Initiative, Hudson Institute. www.hudson.org/events