Daily on Defense — Feb. 9, 2017 — Update on the “other war”

America’s longest war may provide the clearest indication of whether Trump’s isolationist rhetoric, (he once said he would pull all U.S. troops out of the country) will prevail over his pledges to defeat terrorists and start winning again.

NO IMMINENT THREAT: Trump says he suggested delaying by one month the implementation of his order barring foreign nationals from seven countries known to have significant numbers of terrorists among their population from entering the U.S. But the president said he was persuaded by “law enforcement people” that delaying even a week would allow the bad guys to “pour in.” Trump says now that he gets the highest level of intelligence, he is much more aware of the “tremendous” threat facing the U.S. “Believe me. I’ve learned a lot in the last two weeks, and terrorism is a far greater threat than the people of our country understand,” Trump said in remarks to police chiefs and sheriffs. Later, White House spokesman Sean Spicer said there was no “specific” threat but warned, “We must remain ever vigilant. We can’t let our guard down. We have to be ahead of the curve.”

And afterward the White House released a list of 24 terror suspects who previously entered the U.S. from the seven countries named in Trump’s Jan. 27 executive order. The document lists refugees and other immigrants from Somalia, Sudan, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Syria and Libya who entered the U.S. in the last eight years and were later arrested by U.S. law enforcement officials on terrorism charges.

Ten residents from Somalia, six from Iraq, two from Sudan, two from Iran, two from Libya, one from Syria and one from Yemen are mentioned in a document that Fox News posted. The most recent case concerns two Somali refugees who were convicted of conspiring to commit murder in Syria on behalf of the Islamic State.

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HORROR STORIES ON THE HILL: The vice chiefs were back on the Hill yesterday portraying the crisis in U.S. military readiness in the most dire terms. In their second day of testimony, this time before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the four-stars painted a stark picture of a over-stretched, under-resourced military barely holding it together, replete with anecdotes of ships that can’t deploy, planes that can’t fly, and not enough troops to fight another major war if it were to crop up. “While we’re still able to put our first team on the field, our bench is largely depleted,” said Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. William Moran. “On 9/11 we had 316 ships and over 400,000 sailors. Today we have 275 ships and nearly 90,000 fewer sailors. And yet the world has become a lot busier place today,” said Moran, adding that on any given day, more than half, about 62 percent, of the Navy’s F/A-18 Hornets and Super Hornets are not flyable because they’re are down for maintenance.

“Your Marine Corps is insufficiently manned, trained and equipped across the depth of the force to operate in an evolving operational environment,” chimed in Gen. Glenn Walters, assistant Marine Corps commandant, who said right now the U.S. is not prepared fight an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula. “I can tell you today we cannot do two things simultaneously and one of the stressing ones for us is Korea,” Walters said. “And we couldn’t do that at all if we still had commitments elsewhere in the world — Europe, Africa or the Middle East.”

One of the most telling anecdotes was the sad saga of the nuclear attack submarine USS Albany, which has been awaiting repairs for so long that the sub’s commander and crew did an entire rotation without ever going to sea. “That CO started the eval and finished the eval having never left the yards to operate that submarine,” Moran said, “the entire crew never deployed, and we’re on path to do that with [USS] Boise if we don’t get her going.”

Air Force Vice Chief Gen. Stephen Wilson invoked the words of one of Trump’s favorite generals, Douglas MacArthur, in making his closing argument for an end to sequester and for full funding of the military. “He sent a cable as he escaped the Philippines in 1942. He said, ‘the history of failure in war can be summed up in two words, too late. Too late to comprehend the deadly purpose of the potential enemy. Too late in realizing the moral danger. Too late in preparedness.’”

ON ITS OWN: Italian defense company Leonardo says its U.S. branch will compete for the Air Force’s T-X contract by itself after announcing last month that it would no longer be working with Raytheon to submit a proposal as a team. Leonardo will offer its T-100, a modified version of the M-346 training jet already being flown by Italy, Israel, Singapore and Poland.  

HAPPENING TODAY: Vice President Mike Pence visits West Point this evening, where he’ll take a tour and give remarks.

Also today, Sen. Jeff Sessions will be formally sworn-in at a ceremony today to become attorney general, after a 52-47 vote in the Senate, in which West Virginia’s Joe Manchin was the only Democrat to support his confirmation.

ANOTHER IRAN LAUNCH: Iran test-launched a missile on its platform at a site 140 miles east of Tehran on Wednesday, the third such test since Trump was elected. Unlike previous launches, the missile that was tested on Wednesday was a short-range Mersad surface-to-air missile. Its effect was said to be felt 35 miles away, according to a Fox News report.

On Tuesday, U.S. officials said an ImageSat International photo from Feb. 3 showed a Safir missile had been prepped for launch from that same platform and later removed.

RUSSIA SANCTIONS, PART I: A bipartisan group of senators is challenging Trump’s authority to reset the U.S. relationship with Russia by trying to assert control over sanctions policy against that country, Joel Gehrke writes. The six senators, which include three Republicans, have offered a bill that would give Congress a chance to disapprove of a potential Trump decision to lift the sanctions imposed by then-President Obama after Russia annexed Crimea and backed violence against Ukrainian forces in the eastern part of the country. Obama imposed those sanctions because the United States promised to defend Ukrainian sovereignty in 1994, in exchange for the former Soviet satellite state agreeing to surrender a massive nuclear weapons arsenal.

“Russia has done nothing to be rewarded with sanctions relief,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, the lead sponsor of the legislation. “To provide relief at this time would send the wrong signal to Russia and our allies who face Russian oppression. Sanctions relief must be earned, not given.”

RUSSIA SANCTIONS, PART II: House Speaker Paul Ryan says he’ll try to block Trump if he moves to lift those economic sanctions over Crimea and for Russia’s bad behavior in cyberspace, Nicole Duran writes. “I don’t support that,” Ryan told PBS Wednesday evening. “I think the sanctions were overdue. I think President Obama should have done them a year ago,” he said, confirming that he would take action on the House floor if Trump contravenes current sanctions.

MCCAIN-SPICER FEUD: Spicer slammed Sen. John McCain yesterday for saying that the raid in Yemen that took the life of Senior Chief William “Ryan” Owens was not a success. “I think anyone who undermines the success of that raid owes an apology and [does a] disservice to the life of Chief Owens,” Spicer told reporters at the daily briefing. Spicer was referring to a statement McCain released late Tuesday that included the sentence, “I would not describe any operation that results in the loss of American life as a success.”  

Spicer’s demand for an apology is curious considering his boss has called the Iraq war “a disaster” repeatedly for years. By that logic, Trump owes a lot of people a lot of apologies.

YEMEN RAIDS STILL ON: The Yemeni government is denying that it has suspended permission for American special operations forces to conduct ground operations in on Yemeni soil. The Associated Press reported yesterday Yemen’s Foreign Minister Abdul-Malik al-Mekhlafi reports that operations were suspended following a raid that killed multiple civilians and one Navy SEAL were not true. “Yemen continues to cooperate with the United States and continues to abide by all the agreements,” he said. But there’s little doubt the relationship is strained, not just because of the civilian casualties, but also because of Yemen’s inclusion on the list of countries whose citizens are too dangerous to come to the U.S.

THE UNFRIENDLY SKIES: It’s getting crowded in the skies over Northern Syria, where the U.S. has stepped up its support of Turkish forces battling ISIS on the ground. Russia has also been bombing in the area. “The battle space is becoming more complicated as the forces converge around al-Bab,” said Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman Col. John Dorrian yesterday, “so we’ll maintain our deconfliction channel with the Russians.” The Pentagon also announced two Pentagon officials — Ken Handelman, acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs and Rear Adm. Michael Dumont, joint staff deputy director for strategic initiatives — conducted a video conference yesterday with Russian Ministry of Defense counterparts, “to ensure that each side continues to adhere to agreed-upon measures to mitigate incidents in the air over Syria.”

THE HITS KEEP COMING: The Pentagon also announced yesterday that an airstrike last Friday killed 10 terrorists in a building near Idlib, Syria, being used as an al Qaeda meeting place. The next day, a second strike killed Abu Hani al-Masri, who the Pentagon says was “a legacy al Qaeda terrorist” with ties to the group’s senior leaders, including Ayman al-Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden. “Al-Masri oversaw the creation and operation of many al-Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan in the 1980s and ’90s, where he recruited, indoctrinated, trained and equipped thousands of terrorists who subsequently spread throughout the region and the world,” a Pentagon statement said.

PROFESSIONAL FEATHER SMOOTHERS: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis reaffirmed “the strong U.S.-Iraq defense partnership in the fight against ISIS” during a phone call with his Iraqi counterpart, a Pentagon spokesman announced Wednesday. Phone calls between defense officials are nothing new, but Mattis has played a remarkably diplomatic role in the early days of his tenure atop the Defense Department, Joel Gehrke writes. The phone call to Iraq, which is still smarting from Trump’s immigration ban, is the latest example of Trump’s Cabinet team reaching out to American allies recently offended by the president’s unconventional style, thereby reassuring Trump’s Republican allies and even some of his congressional critics.

“Mattis just went to Japan and Korea and did a great job, talked about the commitment that we have to them,” McCain, who has criticized Trump repeatedly, told reporters on Wednesday. “It was very important, because it is well known the president’s respect for Mattis.” Sen. Dan Sullivan also praised Mattis’ skills as an emissary. “Go look at the press in Korea and Japan,” he told the Washington Examiner. “It’s nonstop coverage of Mattis’ trip, all very positive. And he was strong. He knew what he was doing there.”

OFFICE SPACE: The Pentagon is downplaying reports its search for office space in Trump Tower is anything out of the ordinary. “In order to meet official mission requirements, the Department of Defense is working through appropriate channels and in accordance with all applicable legal requirements in order to acquire a limited amount of leased space in Trump Tower,” said Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. J.B. Brindle. “The space is necessary for the personnel and equipment who will support the POTUS at his residence in the building.” (Think nuclear football.) But the question is: By renting in Trump Tower, will the government be paying rent to the president? Pentagon officials did not have a definitive answer, since no lease has been signed, but several officials indicated the DoD might lease from an individual who owns a condo in Trump’s building to avoid any perception that the president is benefiting financially from the arrangement.

A-10 EXTENDED: Former A-10 squadron leader Rep. Martha McSally is applauding the vote of confidence Air Force Chief Gen. David Goldfein has given the venerable A-10 “Warthog.” “I welcome Gen. Goldfein’s comments about retaining all our A-10s until at least 2021,” said McSally in a statement. “Air Force leadership clearly recognizes that the previous decision to mothball the A-10 was a mistake and that this aircraft can continue to play a critical role in strengthening our national security.” A recent analysis showed the A-10 took on a disproportionate number of close-air support missions in Iraq, and McSally got a provision in the NDAA requiring an A-10/F-35 fly-off before any A-10s can be retired.

THE PROUD, AND THE VERY FEW: One interesting tidbit that came out of yesterday’s Senate testimony from the Marine Corps’ Walters is how few of the women who made it through infantry training actually signed up for infantry units, now that all jobs are open to women in the military. “We have a battalion that’s starting to integrate women right now,” Walters said. “We have three female infantry down there and three on the staff. And that was out of 380 that were trained and three volunteered.”

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Trump’s nuclear options: Upcoming review casts a wide net

Washington Post: Call me, maybe? Trump reaches out to China’s president in a letter

Politico: Records show how Air Force nominee skirted lobbying restrictions

Stars and Stripes: Military: Maintenance workers getting waivers to Trump hiring freeze

Military Times: Is the Afghan air force trigger happy? Here’s what the numbers say

Defense News: Top Marine Corps aviator wants F-35Bs faster than planned

Military.com: Army Builds Cyber Combat Teams, Studies Recruitment Pilot

Defense One: Why are US Forces in Yemen at All?

Military.com: Raqqa, Mosul to Fall Within Six Months: Top US Commander

Navy Times: U.S. Navy kicks of military drills with NATO on Russia’s doorstep

Calendar

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 9

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Gen. John Nicholson, the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, provides the Senate Armed Services Committee an update on the fight there. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Experts from the Atlantic Council and the Center for a New American Security testify on the challenges ahead in the relationship between Russia and the U.S. foreign.senate.gov

12:45 p.m. Livestream. The Council on Foreign Relations hosts an event where a panel of experts will discuss the rising threat of North Korea. cfr.org

2 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence receives a closed briefing. intelligence.senate.gov

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 10

9 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Tom Mahnken, the president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, discusses the U.S. defense strategy against China. csbaonline.org

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13

10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. H.E. Khaled Alyemany, the United Nations permanent representative of Yemen, speaks about challenges to the Yemeni peace process. atlanticcouncil.org

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. A panel of experts testifies at the House Armed Services Committee about the evolving threat of terrorism and strategies to counter it. armedservices.house.gov

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 15

9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of analysts talks about challenges and opportunities in the U.S.-Iraqi relationship. wilsoncenter.org

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Eliot Cohen, a professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, discusses his new book on the limits of soft power. heritage.org

5:30 p.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. Robert Kaplan, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, speaks at a launch event for his new book about how geography shapes America’s role in the world. cnas.org

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 16

9 a.m. Rayburn 2212. Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan provides the House Armed Services Committee with an update on the F-35 program. armedservices.house.gov