NORTH KOREA CROSSES A LINE: Over a seven-hour period today, North Korea fired a record 17 ballistic missiles and 100 artillery shells into the waters off the South Korea’s east and west coasts, with one missile crossing the sea border — the first missile to land that far south since the two Koreas were divided in 1948.
South Korea responded by firing its own missiles into the maritime buffer zone.
The angry fusillade from the North came in response to the resumption of large-scale military drills by South Korean and U.S. military forces that were suspended five years ago by former President Donald Trump in a failed attempt to convince North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to give up his nuclear weapons program.
The five-day exercise, dubbed “Vigilant Storm,” is described by the Pentagon as “a training event” to “enhance combat readiness and interoperability,” while North Korea denounced it, as it has all such military drills, as a rehearsal for the invasion of the North.
“Approximately 240 aircraft and thousands of service members from the ROK Air Force, U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and U.S. Army will participate in this training,” which will include practicing “close air support, defensive counter air, and emergency air operations.” said a statement from U.S. Forces Korea. “The ROK and U.S. combined air force is performing approximately 1,600 sorties — the largest number ever for this annual event.”
‘A VERY OMINOUS OMEN’: A North Korean general, who is secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, issued a statement calling the resumption of exercise “a very ominous omen” and appearing to threaten a nuclear response to any attempt to invade the North — something the U.S. and South Korea insist they have no intention of doing.
“I estimate the ‘Vigilant Storm’ joint air drill conducted by the United States and South Korea as an aggressive and provocative military exercise thoroughly aimed at the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in view of the number of fighters involved and its scale and in the light of the code name ‘Desert Storm,’ which copied the name of operation used when invading Iraq in the early 1990s,” said Pak Jong Chon, as reported by the monitoring site KCNA Watch.
“If the United States and South Korea attempt to use arms against us without fear, the special means of the armed forces of the DPRK will immediately perform their strategic mission, and the United States and South Korea will face a shocking incident and pay the most terrible price in history,” said Pak, blaming “the present instability of the Korean Peninsula” on “reckless military moves” of the U.S. and South Korea.
‘EVERYBODY IS HOLDING ITS BREATH’: As North Korea lashes out at the U.S. and South Korea, fears are increasing that it will soon conduct a nuclear test, its first in five years, dramatically raising the stakes in the long-simmering confrontation.
Last week in New York, Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters at the United Nations, “We hope it doesn’t happen, but indications unfortunately go in another direction.
“Everybody is holding its breath about this because another nuclear test would be yet another confirmation of a program which is moving full steam ahead, in a way that is incredibly, incredibly concerning,” Grossi said. “Further tests, of course, means that they are refining the preparations and the construction of their arsenal.”
At the White House yesterday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby warned a North Korean nuclear test could come “at any time.”
“It’s difficult to predict with any degree of certainty what the triggering event might be for Kim Jong Un to conduct any number of provocations that he has in recent weeks or he might in future weeks,” Kirby told reporters. “So I would say in general, our concern remains high, and consistently so, about the potential for a nuclear test.”
Tomorrow morning, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his South Korean counterpart, Lee Jong-sup, at the Pentagon for a previously scheduled Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting, and the two defense chiefs are scheduled to conduct a joint press briefing at 12:15 p.m.
“The purpose of this annual consultative meeting is to serve as a venue to discuss and affirm national commitments toward the continued development of the ROK-U.S. alliance in a mutually reinforcing and enduring manner,” said Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall will preside and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will take part in a “change of responsibility” ceremony for the outgoing and incoming chiefs of space operations.
Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond, first member of the fledgling Space Force created in large part by former President Donald Trump, is being succeeded by Gen. B. Chance Saltzman.
The change of responsibility ceremony for the newest member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland will be livestreamed at 10:30 a.m. on defense.gov.
WILL BIDEN MEET XI? The White House confirmed that efforts are underway to arrange a face-to-face meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Bali later this month.
“The two leaders have talked now, I think, five times, so the lines of communication between President Biden and President Xi remain open, and we’ll see where this goes,” NSC spokesman John Kirby told reporters yesterday. “Staffs are still working through the modalities, and you know, if one were able to get one on the schedule, we’ll certainly announce that appropriately.”
Biden leaves in less than two weeks on a trip that will take him to the Group of 20 major economies in Indonesia, as well as a U.N. climate conference in Egypt and a Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh.
RUSSIA SAYS GRAIN DEAL BACK ON: Despite Russia’s announced suspension of its agreement to allow grain exports from Ukraine, more than a dozen ships loaded with grain departed Ukraine yesterday, raising questions about whether Russia’s diminished Black Sea Fleet was in any position to block the shipments.
And today, Russia, saying it has received assurances from Ukraine it would not use the humanitarian sea lanes for “military operations,” said shipments can resume tomorrow, according to Tass, the Russian state-run news agency.
“We continue to see ships leaving Ukraine full of grain, including today, and that’s a good thing,” said Kirby. “The more than 9 million metric tons of grain and foodstuff has left Ukraine since this initiative was put into place … has made a dent not only in the food price index but also in the stomachs of a lot of hungry people in various parts of the world.”
GRAIN SHIPMENTS CONTINUE TO LEAVE BLACK SEA AFTER RUSSIA WITHDRAWS FROM DEAL
IRAN CONTINUES TO ARM RUSSIA: Iran plans to continue its shipments of missiles and drones to replenish Russia’s dwindling stocks as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his campaign to destroy civilian infrastructure to increase the suffering of average Ukrainians during the cold winter months.
“The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 1 that Iranian officials intend to send a shipment of more than 200 Shahed-136, Mohajer-6, and Arash-2 combat drones to Russia,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War reported in its latest assessment. “The GUR reported that Iran will send Russia the drones in a disassembled state and that Russian personnel will assemble them with Russian markings.”
Ukraine claimed to have shot down more than 300 Shahed-136 drones since Russia starting using them in Ukraine last month.
CNN, quoting Western officials, reported Iran is also planning to send short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia.
“Russia likely negotiated the additional Iranian shipment of weapons systems due to the depletion of its stockpile of cruise missile and drone systems over the course of the war in Ukraine, particularly during the Russian campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure,” said the ISW.
RUSSIA DEPLOYS ‘KILLJOY’ HYPERSONIC BALLISTIC MISSILES TO BELARUS, UK INTEL SAYS
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Grain shipments continue to leave Black Sea after Russia withdraws from deal
Washington Examiner: UN nuclear watchdog begins investigation of alleged ‘dirty bomb’ in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russia deploys ‘Killjoy’ hypersonic ballistic missiles to Belarus, UK intel says
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Russia and Iran’s self-defeating gambit to freeze Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Saudi Arabia sounds alarms of imminent Iranian attack within kingdom: Report
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu gets another shot at power, if he can overcome internal rivalries
New York Times: Russian Military Leaders Discussed Use of Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Officials Say
AP: Saudis in US targeted as kingdom cracks down on dissent
Defense News: Drone-Killing Vampires Due in Ukraine Next Year, Pentagon Says
Popular Science: What It’s Like to Fire Raytheon’s Powerful Anti-Drone Laser
Daily Beast: Putin Parades New Missile Nightmare in Latest Threat to West
Washington Post: Capitol Police cameras caught break-in at Pelosi’s S.F. home, but no one was watching
Bloomberg: Raytheon Wires $1 Million to Whistleblower Over Fake GPS Test Results for Air Force
Defense One: It’s Official: Space Force Sets Sights on Smaller Satellites
AP: SpaceX Nails Booster Landings After Foggy Military Launch
The Economist: Has the Ukraine war killed off the ground-attack aircraft?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Saltzman Set to Take Over as Space Force CSO as Raymond Retires
Military.com: Air Force Allows Unvaccinated Instructor Pilots to Fly Again Amid Pending Lawsuits
Air & Space Forces Magazine: 100 USAF Aircraft to Fly in Large-Scale Exercise With South Korea
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall: NDS Doesn’t Call For a Larger Air Force; Expect Major Changes as USAF Modernizes
19fortyfive.com: Ukraine War: Whose Side Will ‘General Winter’ Take?
19fortyfive.com: Nuclear Test? Why North Korea Could Start a New Crisis
19fortyfive.com: Russia Is Losing Its Hold on the Black Sea
19fortyfive.com: Putin Looks Really Desperate to Send Troops to Die in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: HAWK: Can this Old Air Defense System Save Ukraine?
Forbes: Defeating Drones: The Most Promising Weapons Are All Non-Kinetic
The Cipher Brief: Intelligence Community Help Wanted: Open Source Ninjas
The Cipher Brief: Putin May Be the Victim of His Own Reaping Whirlwind
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 2
8 a.m. Hyatt Regency Crystal City — Naval Submarine League 2022 symposium: “Expanding the Reach of the Undersea Force,” with Rear Adm. Jonathan Rucker, program executive officer for Attack Submarines; Rear Adm. Jeffrey Jablon, commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet Submarine Force; and Adm. Chas Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command https://www.navalsubleague.org/events/annual-symposium/
8:30 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual Continuous Diagnostic and Mitigation Summit, with Randy Resnick, director of zero trust portfolio management at the Defense Department, and acting DOJ Chief Information Officer Kevin Cox https://events.fcw.com/fcw-summit-cdm/
8:45 a.m. 1735 New York Ave. N.W. — Defense Strategies Institute Assured Microelectronics Summit, Nov. 2-3, with Christine Michienzi, chief technology officer for the deputy assistant defense secretary for industrial policy and chief technology officer for the defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment https://dsigroup.org/assured-microelectronics-registration
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual conversation: “U.S.-Canada Defense Partnership in a Dangerous World,” with Canadian Gen. Wayne Eyre, chief of the defense staff, and Seth G. Jones, senior vice president and director of CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/us-canada-defense-partnership
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 3
11 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. N.W. — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “Putin’s Shifting Approach to Conflict and the War in Ukraine,” with Mark Galeotti, principal director of Mayak Intelligence and senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, and Donald Jensen, director of the USIP Russia and Europe Center https://www.usip.org/events/putins-shifting-approach
12 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Cyber Defenders: Collaborative Computing,” with Brian Mazanec, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office https://events.nextgov.com/cyber-defenders-collaborative-computing/
3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion: “Power projection: Accelerating the electrification of U.S. military ground vehicles,” with Assistant Army Secretary for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology Douglas Bush; former Assistant Defense Secretary for Operational Energy Sharon Burke, founder and president of Ecospherics; Jeffrey Ryder, vice president for growth and strategy at GM Defense; and Jim Khoury, director of electrification outside sales and new business development at GM Defense https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/power-projection
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 4
12:30 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “The CCP 20th Party Congress and China’s Road Ahead” https://calendar.gwu.edu/ccp-20th-party-congress-conference
1 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Resolving Tensions Between South Korea and Japan: Creative Approaches to Strengthening the Relationship,” with Jonathan Miller, director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Indo-Pacific Program; Nathan Park, nonresident fellow at the Sejong Institute in South Korea; Alexis Dudden, professor of history at the University of Connecticut; Daniel Sneider, lecturer in East Asian studies at Stanford University; Timothy Webster, professor of law at Western New England University; and Frank Aum, senior expert for Northeast Asia at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/resolving-tensions
3 p.m. — Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual discussion: “U.S. Policy on Lebanon,” with Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/us-policy-lebanon-conversation
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I’ve seen posters in the Pentagon corridors with the wordings from the NDS talking about campaigning. It defines campaigning as ‘the conduct and sequencing of logically linked military activities to achieve strategy-aligned objectives over time.’ Can you translate that into English?”
Bloomberg reporter Anthony Capaccio questioning Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, who replied, “Sure, thanks, Tony. I mean, that seems perfectly clear to me.”
