‘WE HOPE SO’: The compromise deal on border security worked out late last night by Republican and Democratic negotiators on Capitol Hill includes $1.375 billion for 55 miles of barriers in the Rio Grande valley, far short of the $5.7 billion President Trump demanded. The agreement was reached after Democrats dropped their insistence that the number of ICE detention beds be capped at 34,000, agreeing to maintain the current 40,500 beds.

HAPPENING NOW: Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has arrived in Baghdad on an unannounced visit, according to news agency reports. It’s his first trip to Iraq and comes after President Trump rankled Iraqi officials with his recent declaration that the United States would use its base in Iraq to monitor Iran’s actions in neighboring Syria.

“We are in Iraq at the invitation of the government and our interests are to build Iraqi security capability,” Shanahan told reporters traveling with him. “I want to hear first-hand from them about concerns, the political dynamics that they are facing, and then based on that we will obviously factor that into our planning.”

Shanahan’s visit comes as the Washington Post reports President Trump is considering nominating Shanahan to fill the position without the “acting” title.

HAPPENING TODAY: Adm. Philip Davidson, U.S. Indo-Pacific commander, and Army Gen. Robert Abrams, U.S. and U.N. Korea commander, testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 this morning (SD-G50, Dirksen).

Davidson will address the growing threat from China’s increasing military capabilities and continued militarization of the man-made island and reefs in the South China Sea. A recent DIA report concluded that “China is building a robust, lethal force with capabilities spanning the air, maritime, space and information domains which will enable China to impose its will in the region.”

Abrams will no doubt be quizzed on plans to resume joint military exercises with South Korea that were suspended or scaled down under orders from President Trump, as well as the latest agreement for South Korea to pay more for its own defense, which is only for one year instead of the usual five.

NATO SEC GEN, ‘NO NEW ARMS RACE’: “NATO doesn’t want a new arms race because that would be in nobody’s interest,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at his “pre-ministerial press conference” this morning in Brussels. NATO defense ministers, including Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Shanahan, will meet for two days beginning tomorrow, and at the top of their agenda is “planning for the world without the INF treaty,” in the words of Stoltenberg.

“We will discuss what steps we need to take to adapt to a world with more Russian missiles and maintain effective deterrence and defense,” said Stoltenberg this morning. “I will not speculate on what those steps will be, but let me say this: Any steps we take will be coordinated and measured and defensive. And we do not intend to deploy new ground-based nuclear missiles in Europe.”

NATO’s civilian chief says the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Moscow enjoys the full support of all 30 NATO allies. “We all know that a treaty that is only respected by one side cannot to keep us safe,” Stoltenberg said, adding that the withdrawal doesn’t go into effect for six months. “Russia has a last opportunity to take the responsible path, to return to compliance and save the INF treaty. We urge Russia to take this opportunity.”

DOES RUSSIA HAVE A POINT? Citing Moscow’s continued violation of the INF treaty, the Trump administration called out Vladimir Putin and invoked the six-month withdrawal period unless Russia dismantles and destroys its land-based SSC-8 cruise missile. Russia has refused, insisting the missile does not violate the treaty and arguing that the United States is the one in violation with its European-based missile defenses.

Now Ted Postol, the MIT professor who made a name for himself disputing the military claims for the effectiveness of the Patriot Missile system in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, is out with a new analysis, suggesting the U.S. Aegis Ashore system deployed in Poland and Romania may in fact violate the INF treaty, as Russia claims.

It’s a charge the United States has strongly disputed in the past, most notably in a statement last year posted on the State Department website that says Aegis Ashore is “fully consistent” with the INF treaty because it “has never contained, launched, or been tested for launching a missile that is prohibited” by the treaty. “The system is only capable of launching defensive interceptor missiles, such as the SM-3,” which “has been developed and tested solely to intercept and counter objects not located on the surface of the Earth.”

“Clearly, the State Department’s December 2017 statement — that the Aegis-ashore system lacks the software, fire control hardware, support equipment, and other infrastructure needed to launch offensive ballistic or cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk — is simply not true. The Aegis ashore system is designed to be extremely flexible and to handle multiple types of missiles; that flexibility can be understood by thinking of its control system as analogous to a laptop computer,” writes Postol in a lengthy analysis for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

UK’S GLOBAL VISION: Britain’s defense secretary Gavin Williamson laid out his vision for the United Kingdom’s military in a speech yesterday at the Royal United Services Institute, billed as the world’s oldest independent think tank on international defense and security.

Some highlights:

On NATO: “Britain must be willing and able to lead the Alliance. … It is far more focused and ready to deter and defend against Russian hostile acts. But, more European nations need to be ready and capable of responding too, stepping up to the 2 percent NATO target and not being distracted by the notion of an EU Army.”

On the UK’s new carrier: “I can announce the first operational mission of the HMS Queen Elizabeth will include the Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Pacific region. Making Global Britain a reality. Significantly, British and American F-35s will be embedded in the carrier’s air wing.”

On the special relationship with the US: “United States remains our very closest of partners. We share the same vision of the world. A world shaped by individual liberty, the rule of law and, of course, the tolerance of others. We have the unique ability to integrate with US forces across a broad spectrum of areas. And, we are more determined than ever to keep working together.”

On upgrades to the Royal Air Force: “They already have 17 new RAF and Royal Navy F-35 Lightning jets, capable of land-based operations anywhere on the globe and due to embark on our aircraft carrier for the first time later this year. We’ll soon have nine new Poseidon P-8 Maritime Patrol Aircraft enabling us to patrol thousands of miles of ocean and greatly enhancing our anti-submarine and maritime capability.”

On swarming drones: “To complement leading edge technology from F-35, I have decided to use the Transformation Fund to develop swarm squadrons of network enabled drones capable of confusing and overwhelming enemy air defences. We expect to see these ready to be deployed by the end of this year.”

DoD’s NEW AI STRATEGY: The Pentagon will release its Artificial Intelligence Strategy today, which it says “articulates the department’s approach for accelerating the delivery and adoption of AI-enabled capabilities.” The release is in line with President Trump’s directive yesterday ordering the entire federal government to prioritize research and development of America’s artificial intelligence capabilities.

“The impact of artificial intelligence will extend across the entire department, spanning from operations and training to recruiting and healthcare. The speed and agility with which we will deliver AI capabilities to the warfighter has the potential to change the character of warfare. We must accelerate the adoption of AI-enabled capabilities to strengthen our military, improve effectiveness and efficiency, and enhance the security of our nation,” said a Pentagon statement in advance of the release.

ONE MARINE’S OPINION: President Trump has taken a lot of flak for ignoring his national security team and going with his gut in deciding to pull all U.S. troops out of Syria while also expressing his desire to cut the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan roughly in half to focus solely on counterterrorism.

Many of his critics, including former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker, have accused the Trump administration of negotiating surrender to the Taliban in a rush to end America’s “endless wars,” comparing the negotiations to the infamous 1973 Paris Peace Accords that positioned the North Vietnamese to conquer the South just two years later.

But one Vietnam-era Marine, who never made it to the war zone but lost a good friend there in 1969, shared with me an email he wrote to New York Times Kabul bureau chief Rod Nordland, who authored a recent analysis comparing the Afghanistan war to the Vietnam war.  

In the email, David Nelson, who was a Marine Corps captain from 1971 to 1973, writes of his childhood friend Lee Roy Herron, who died a few months before his division left Vietnam.

“If our country had withdrawn months earlier, Herron’s life and thousands of other lives could have been spared. An earlier withdrawal, which lasted for several years anyway, would have saved treasured lives and materiel. And the results would have been the same — North Vietnam would have taken over and occupied South Vietnam,” Nelson argues. “Even if we spend months or years negotiating with the enemy in Afghanistan, as we did in Vietnam, what are the odds the enemy will uphold their end of the bargain once we are gone? How long did it take North Vietnam to ignore the peace treaty once we were gone?”

You can read the full letter on my Facebook page.

WE TOPPLED THEM ONCE, WE CAN AGAIN: “What if the Taliban steamroll the Afghan government and then harbor terrorists? Preventing that outcome doesn’t require a permanent U.S. troop presence. Deterrence works,” argues Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., who serves on the House Armed Services Committee and is another voice supporting President Trump’s inclination to get out.

“The Taliban should understand that the United States will use overwhelming force again if they harbor terrorists who directly threaten our homeland,” Khanna says. “Moreover, other ‘ungoverned territories’ exist where terrorists can operate. There, we conduct counterterrorism from the air without troop deployment.”

Military historians and others with long memories will recall President Nixon made a similar promise to South Vietnam, that the United States would resume bombing the North if it violated the peace deal. It was a promise that Nixon could not keep, as he needed congressional approval and he was weakened by Watergate.

THE KERRY QUESTION: The current debate invoking the ghosts of Vietnam inevitably brings to mind John Kerry’s question posed in testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1971: “How do you ask a man to be the last man to die in Vietnam? How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?” asked Kerry, the future senator and secretary of state, who was then with a group called Vietnam Veterans Against the War.

DIA SPACE REPORT: The Defense Intelligence Agency has released a report titled  “Challenges to Security in Space,” which notes, “Having seen the benefits of space-enabled operations, some foreign governments are developing capabilities that threaten others’ ability to use space. China and Russia, in particular, have taken steps to challenge the United States.”

The report says that “longstanding technological and cost barriers to space are falling, enabling more countries and commercial firms to participate in satellite construction, space launch, space exploration and human spaceflight,” and concludes: “The advantage that the United States holds in space — and our perceived dependence on it — will continue to drive actors to improve their abilities to operate in and through space.”

US COALITION BOMBS ANOTHER MOSQUE: As the final push against ISIS in Syria comes down to the final days, the United States found itself in the position of having to conduct an air strike against a building that used to be used as a mosque but is now the last refuge of desperate ISIS fighters.

Yesterday in support of Syrian Democratic Forces the U.S.-led coalition took out a “former mosque” where ISIS members were holed up. “This mosque lost its protected status when ISIS deliberately chose to use it as a command and control center,” said British Maj. Gen. Christopher Ghika, CJTF-OIR deputy commander-strategy and information. “This strike on ISIS will further hasten their defeat,” he said.

THE RUNDOWN

Wall Street Journal: Iran Vows to Continue Military Expansion Despite U.S. Threats

Military Times: Shanahan arrives in Baghdad as questions loom on where Syria troops will go

Reuters: North Korea May Have Made More Nuclear Bombs, But Threat Reduced: Study

Bloomberg: China’s Space Debris Cleanup May Be Cover Story, Pentagon Says

Defense News: Another Government Shutdown Looms. But Why Is The Fully Funded Pentagon Concerned?

Military Times: Breathing easier: After years of T-6 hypoxia scares, the Air Force thinks it has the fix

Forbes: F-35 Will Cost Less To Operate Than Older Fighters. Here’s Why Some Policymakers Don’t Get That.

CNN: Battle to push ISIS out of its last Syrian enclave intensifies

AP: UN warns ISIS losses shouldn’t lead to complacency

Stars and Stripes: Navy Awards $34.4 Million Contract For USS Carl Vinson Repairs, Alterations

Bloomberg: SpaceX Launch Certification to Face Review by Pentagon Watchdog

Air Force Times: As first KC-46s arrive, Altus kicks training mission into gear

Army Times: Army tests using a grenade to stop drones with a net

CBS News: Crew hunts for sunken USS Hornet in a graveyard for WWII ships