AWAITING THE IMMIGRATION VERDICT: No matter what the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco decides, President Trump’s restrictions on foreign nationals from seven countries considered hotbeds of terrorism will almost certainly be appealed to the Supreme Court. If the current eight justices split 4-4, the appeals court ruling, whatever it is, will stand. The decision is expected this week, though likely not today. The oral arguments before three judges were broadcast live last night and offered a fascinating look at the legal arguments on both sides. One judge seemed sympathetic to the administration, another to the opponents of the policy and the third appeared on the fence. But as any veteran court reporter knows, you cannot predict the outcome by tone of the question because judges are often in the role of devil’s advocate as they subject both sides to rigorous interrogation.
Trump tweeted this morning: “If the U.S. does not win this case as it so obviously should, we can never have the security and safety to which we are entitled. Politics!”
Yesterday, Trump’s homeland security secretary took the blame for the quick rollout of the new policy, which didn’t allow for consultation with Congress and other affected parties. “This is all on me,” said John Kelly testifying before the House Homeland Security Committee. “I should have delayed it just a bit so that I could talk to members of Congress, particularly to the leadership of committees like this, to prepare them for what was coming.” But Kelly insisted the president’s executive order is both “lawful and constitutional,” and the review is “necessary and appropriate.”
POST REBUKE: In his testimony Kelly, a highly-respected retired four-star Marine general, delivered a stinging rebuke to a widely-circulated article that purported to recount a dramatic confrontation between Kelly and White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. Without naming him, Kelly said Washington Post opinion writer Josh Rogin was either being played for a fool or making things up. “You know, I read that article Saturday morning,” said Kelly, “I would tell you that every paragraph, every sentence, every word, every space, every comma, every period was wrong. It was a fantasy story.” Kelly said he’s asked his public affairs people to contact Rogin and let him know, “Whoever his sources are, are playing him for a fool.”
But Kelly’s harsh criticism did not extend to the media in general. ‘I think the responsible press do the best job they can to get the facts straight,” he added later in his testimony. “But of course, they will go with a story. It’s what they do. It’s their job. They will go with a story and the best information they have.”
THE VICE CHIEFS’ ENCORE PERFORMANCE: The vice chiefs of staff are back on Capitol Hill this afternoon, this time before the Senate Armed Services committee, where they will reprise their warning about the declining state of U.S. military readiness and the disastrous effects of sequestration. “Our testimony today may seem like a broken record,” Adm. Bill Moran, the vice chief of naval operations, said yesterday before the House Armed Service Committee. He may use that line again today. The quartet of four-stars spent hours detailing how the congressionally-imposed spending caps and resulting unpredictable budgets are hurting the military’s ability to defend the nation. “In terms of near-term readiness, there is a significant challenge in meeting not only the current operational tempo with training ready forces, but having sufficient forces ready to deploy in the event of an unforeseen contingency,” said Gen. Daniel Allyn, the army’s vice chief. “That’s what we owe the country.”
ORANGE IS THE NEW BRAC: Along with their plea to end the artificial constraints of sequestration, the vice chiefs also called for lawmakers to approve another round of base realignment and closure. They said the savings could go a long way to paying down the infrastructure backlog, estimated at $11 billion for the Army and $25 billion for the Air Force. “In today’s budget environment, it makes sense to invest wisely, so BRAC would help us make smart investments to prepare for the future,” Gen. Stephen Wilson, the Air Force vice chief, said. “It’s real money that we really need to reinvest into deferred maintenance and infrastructure backlog,” Allyn said. Savings like those could track well with the Trump administration’s interest in lowering costs and getting rid of waste.
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DEPSECDEF BUZZ: As the administration turns to narrowing its list for the deputy positions at both the Pentagon and State Department, Robert Rangel, a senior vice president at Lockheed Martin, is a top contender for the Pentagon’s No. 2 job, two sources tell us. Also under consideration is former Sen. Jim Talent, who was also reportedly on Trump’s shortlist for defense secretary.
A TRAINER AND TEMPLATE: Air Force chief of staff Gen. David Goldfein said the contracting process the service has used to procure the T-X trainer jet, which has involved more conversations with industry earlier in the process, could be used as a “template” for future acquisition programs since he said it’s led to better informed companies competing. “If you really liked the old way of doing business, you probably didn’t like this because it took longer,” he said at a Defense Writers Group breakfast.
NBC REPORT DENIED: The Pentagon issued an unequivocal denial of yesterday’s NBC story that quoted sources as saying the Jan. 29 Yemen raid by SEAL Team 6 missed nabbing its real target, AQAP leader Qasim al-Rimi. “I can tell you it’s not true,” said Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis. “It’s certainly somebody we are interested in, certainly somebody who has good reason to be very concerned about our interest in him, but there was never any intention, hope, anticipation or plan he would be part of this operation.”
The U.S. military has said it’s likely some civilians were killed in the raid and now Yemen has withdrawn permission for U.S. special operations forces to conduct ground operations in the country, according to the New York Times. That could complicate any plans to expand the war against terrorists in Yemen, and possibly prompt second thoughts about delegating more authority to conduct raids to commanders in the field.
NO CONFUSION AT THE PENTAGON: At that same briefing, Davis said there is little doubt that Moscow is supporting separatists responsible for a surge of fighting in Ukraine. “That has been our assessment for a long time,” he said. “Russia has its fingerprints all over what is going on in eastern Ukraine.” The Pentagon statement stands in contrast to comments Trump made in an interview that aired on Fox News Monday night, in which he indicated he was unconvinced that Russia was behind the latest flare-up of fighting in Ukraine.
MATTIS’ ONGOING CHARM OFFENSIVE: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis continues to reach out to America’s friends to offer reassurance and encouragement. His latest call was to his Mexican counterparts, Defense Secretary Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda and Mexico’s Navy Secretary Adm. Vidal Soberón Sanz. It was the first time Mattis had talked to either of them, and a Pentagon account of the conversation said Mattis committed to strengthening the “close bilateral defense relationship” and to “improving cooperation in areas of mutual interest.”
RUSSIAN PROBE: House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer backed calls by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday for an investigation into Trump’s ties to Russia and the possibility that he has been compromised by the Russians, Al Weaver writes. Hoyer told reporters during his weekly pen and pad that it would be a “dereliction of duty” on the part of House Republicans not to investigate the alleged ties to the Russians, pointing to Republican-led investigations from the 1990s into the Clinton administration and into former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s role in the Benghazi terror attack in 2012.
“Let me say that I think it’s very important for us … to investigate allegations that the president of the United States might be compromised in some way,” Hoyer said, calling also for investigations into Russia’s role in the election and the relationship between the Trump campaign and Russia. “I think those are all legitimate objectives for the Congress, as the representative of the American people, to pursue.”
THE OTHER VLADIMIR: Sen. John McCain took to the Senate floor yesterday to hail a Russian hero, who he implied has been poisoned by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Standing beside a poster size photo of Vladimir Kara-Murza, who he called “his dear friend,” McCain cited the case as an example of Putin’s murderous ways. “Those of us who know the work of this brave Russian patriot could not afford to hope or assume that he was suffering some ordinary illness. Just two years ago, under mysterious circumstances, Vladimir grew very ill and fell into a coma. Many suspected he was poisoned to intimidate him — or worse,” McCain said. “That is why last week’s news signaled another shadowy strike against a brilliant voice who has defied the tyranny of Putin’s Russia.” McCain’s full Senate speech is here.
IRANIAN TAUNTS: Trump’s immigration order shows “the true face of America,” Iran’s supreme ruler said in a series of tweets Tuesday morning. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tweeted that Trump has been beneficial to Iran because he shows what America truly is and he is doing “the job for us.” “New #POTUS says Iran should’ve appreciated Obama! How come? Appreciate him for #DAESH, war in Iraq &Syria or public support for 2009 unrest?” Khamenei tweeted.
A NEW SHERIFF: Trump may take additional actions against Iran if its leaders continue to flout an international agreement restricting its nuclear program, White House press secretary Sean Spicer warned Tuesday, Sarah Westwood writes. “I think Iran is kidding itself if they don’t realize that there is a new president in town,” Spicer said in his daily briefing. Meanwhile Fox News reports Iran removed a powerful missile from a launchpad east of Tehran within the past few days. Intimidated?
HIDDEN MESSAGES: The Pentagon is dealing with a continuing trend of people reading hidden meaning into innocuous social media and website posts — messages that officials insist are not there. The latest is from Tom Ricks over at Foreign Policy magazine, who posted an official DoD photograph of Trump’s arrival at MacDill Air Force base under the headline, “Is the Pentagon trolling Trump?” The photo shows Trump waving as he gets in a car on the tarmac. In case you see nothing unusual in the photo, Ricks adds, “What does President Donald Trump’s arm angle remind you of?” I guessing he’s suggesting some sort of salute? It’s a stretch.
THE RUNDOWN
New York Times: White House Weighs Terrorist Designation For Muslim Brotherhood
Navy Times: Army reveals military records for Trump’s Navy secretary pick
Defense One: ‘You’re Fired!’ Will Not Fix Federal Cybersecurity
CNN: First on CNN: US military to rent space in Trump Tower
U.S. News: What Does Putting Iran ‘On Notice’ Really Mean?
Japan Times: Behind The Scenes, Tillerson Tones Down Rhetoric On South China Sea
CNBC: New Images Show How North Korea Is Expanding Its Missile Research
UK Telegraph: ‘We know where Isil leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is hiding’ says Iraqi PM
Daily Beast: Tulsi Gabbard in New Trouble Over Her Syria Jaunt
Stars and Stripes: Air Force chief seeks to lower commercial flight-hour requirement
Marine Corps Times: Top Marine’s 2017 to-do list: better PT, fixing aviation and cracking down on ‘general jackassery’
Defense News: The famed ‘Warthog’ will stick around until at least 2021
Washington Post: Orbital ATK sues Pentagon over plans to award a space robots contract to a Canadian-owned firm
UPI: Norwegian army acquiring new air defense missile system
Reuters: Islamic State sees chance to revive fortunes in Trump presidency
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
11:30 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. OIR Spokesman Air Force Col. John Dorrian briefs reporters live from Baghdad on operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Live streamed on defense.gov.
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Stimson Center hosts an event examining the risks and rewards of President Trump’s new strategy toward Asia. stimson.org
2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. The service’s vice chiefs testify at the Senate Armed Services Committee about the military’s readiness. armed-services.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 9
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Gen. John Nicholson, the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, provides the Senate Armed Services Committee an update on the fight there. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Experts from the Atlantic Council and the Center for a New American Strategy testify on the challenges ahead in the relationship between Russia and the U.S. foreign.senate.gov
12:45 p.m. Livestream. The Council on Foreign Relations hosts an event where a panel of experts will discuss the rising threat of North Korea. cfr.org
2 p.m. Hart 219. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence receives a closed briefing. intelligence.senate.gov
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 10
9 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Tom Mahnken, the president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, discusses the U.S. defense strategy against China. csbaonline.org
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13
10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. H.E. Khaled Alyemany, the United Nations permanent representative of Yemen, speaks about challenges to the Yemeni peace process. atlanticcouncil.org
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of analysts talks about challenges and opportunities in the U.S.-Iraqi relationship. wilsoncenter.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Eliot Cohen, a professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, discusses his new book on the limits of soft power. heritage.org
5:30 p.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. Robert Kaplan, a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security, speaks at a launch event for his new book about how geography shapes America’s role in the world. cnas.org
