US message to Iran: Don’t even think about it

“In response to a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings,” Bolton’s statement says, the United States is deploying the carrier, its escort ships, and the bombers “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.”

The flexing of military muscle comes after threats from the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval force to close the vital shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz and indications that the IRGC may be planning attacks against U.S. assets in the region.

“The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces,” Bolton said.

ALLIED AGAINST US: The escalation of tensions in the Gulf comes a day after some of America’s closest allies expressed frustration with President Trump’s go-it-alone effort to cripple Iran’s oil-based economy with tough sanctions, and then forcing reluctant allies to fall in line by ending the purchase Iranian exports.

The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, along with the high representative of the European Union, issued a statement of defiance yesterday, arguing that they are still operating under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

“The remaining participants to the JCPoA are committed to working on the preservation and maintenance of financial channels and exports for Iran, together with third countries interested in supporting the JCPoA,” the statement said.

The ministers took note “with regret and concern of the decision by the United States not to extend waivers with regards to trade in oil with Iran” and said America’s European allies remain convinced that the nuclear deal “is key to increasing stability and security in the Middle East region.”

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrives in Finland today, where he is expected to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to discuss U.S. demands that Russia “get out” of Venezuela, where opposition leader Juan Guaidó has so far been thwarted in his bid to wrest power from Nicolás Maduro.

Pompeo is scheduled to attend an Arctic Council ministerial and deliver a speech on U.S. Arctic policy but plans to meet with Lavrov on the sidelines. “We’ll have more conversations about this. The objective is very clear; we want the Iranians out, we want the Russians out, we want the Cubans out. That’s ultimately what has to take place in order for Venezuelan democracy to be restored. It’s very clear,” Pompeo said on ABC yesterday.

Pompeo is traveling through Thursday, with stops planned in Berlin, London, and Greenland.

RUSSIA’S INTENTIONS: On Friday, President Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, telling reporters afterward, “He is not looking to get involved in Venezuela other than he’d like to see something positive happen for Venezuela. And I feel the same way.”

Trump did not mention any possibility of U.S. military intervention, instead focusing on the need for humanitarian assistance. “Right now people are starving, they have no water, they have no food,” he said.

Yesterday in Moscow, Lavrov accused the United States of leading “an unprecedented campaign” to oust “Venezuela’s legitimate authorities,” according to Radio Free Europe. “Attempts at a violent coup in Caracas have nothing to do with the democratic process and only frustrate prospects for political settlement of the crisis,” Lavrov added. “It is only up to the Venezuelans to decide about the future of their country.”

GUAIDÓ OVERPLAYED HIS HAND: In an interview with the Washington Post Saturday, Guaidó admitted he misjudged the amount of support he would get for his planned military uprising last week and did not rule out getting help from the U.S. military in the future.

“Maybe because we still need more soldiers, and maybe we need more officials of the regime to be willing to support it, to back the constitution,” Guaidó said. He told the Post any American military support must be alongside Venezuelan forces who have turned against Maduro and said he would take any U.S. offer to the country’s national assembly for a vote.

WHERE’S THE CARRIER?: As noted above in the case of Iran, nothing makes a bigger statement of America’s military might than 4 1/2 acres of floating sovereign U.S. territory in the form of a super carrier. So Friday, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., tweeted the obvious question: “Cuba, Russia send troops to prop Maduro up in Venezuela…….while we talk/sanction. Where is our aircraft carrier?”

A LOT OF WATER NEARBY: On Friday, acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan met with a small group of reporters who were to have traveled with him to Europe on a trip that was canceled last week so Shanahan could remain in Washington working up “ a wide range of military options” for Venezuela.

Shanahan repeated the standard line that “all options are on the table” but when pressed added, “We have a comprehensive set of options tailored to certain conditions.” A reporter asked if that included kinetic action. “I’ll leave that to your imagination,” Shanahan replied.

What about Sen. Graham’s call for an aircraft carrier? “All options are comprehensive. But there’s a lot of water nearby. Yeah,” he replied. “All would include all.”

The Friday meeting included Pompeo and Bolton as well as U.S. Southern Command leader Adm. Craig Faller, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, and Undersecretary of Defense for Policy John Rood.

ALSO TODAY: Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller, U.S. Northern Command head Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy, and a host of other Pentagon officials speak at the Navy League Sea-Air-Space Global Maritime Exposition at the Gaylord National Convention Center, Oxon Hill, Md. A full list of speakers is here.

DOWNPLAYING KOREA: While North Korea’s firing of short-range rockets Friday has been widely interpreted as a signal of Kim Jong Un’s frustration with the unwillingness of the Trump administration to make any concessions on sanctions relief, Secretary of State Pompeo was portraying the “strike drill” as no big deal.

“The launches, and there were several, were short-range,” Pompeo said on Fox News Sunday. “We have high confidence that they were not intermediate-range missiles, that they were not long-range missiles or intercontinental missiles,” which Pompeo said indicated North Korea had not broken its self-imposed ban on testing missiles that could threaten America or its allies. “The moratorium was focused, very focused on intercontinental missile systems, the ones that threaten the United States.”

“We still have every intention of negotiating a good resolution with North Korea to get them to denuclearize. We’ve known it would be a long path, we’ve known it wouldn’t be straightforward, but I have extended our negotiating hand to the North Koreans since Hanoi, we’ve heard back from them,” Pompeo said.

WARMBIER’S MOTHER: On Friday, Cindy Warmbier, mother of Otto Warmbier, the student who died after being held hostage in North Korea, made an emotional call for further sanctions against Kim Jong Un’s regime, my colleague Russ Read reports.

“North Korea to me is a cancer on the earth. And if we ignore this cancer, it’s not going to go away. It’s going to kill all of us,” Warmbier said at a conference in Washington. “This is a problem that we’re dealing with absolute evil. There is a charade going on right now. It’s called diplomacy. How can you have diplomacy with someone that never tells the truth?”

“But unless we keep the pressure on North Korea, they are not going to change,” she added, calling for more sanctions. “I am very afraid that we’re going to let up on this pressure.”

On CBS, Pompeo called Warmbier “an amazing patriot and a remarkable woman” and said he has enormous sympathy and admiration for her. “I completely understand her remarks,” Pompeo said. “We don’t expect Chairman Kim to tell us the truth. That’s why we’re going to verify any denuclearization that takes place. That’s why we will ensure that we see actual on-the-ground outcomes. We’re not going to take anyone’s word for it.”

KLOBUCHAR ON NK: On CNN, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., said President Trump should pay more attention to Cindy Warmbier. “Maybe he should listen to Otto Warmbier’s mother,” the Democratic presidential hopeful told Jake Tapper yesterday.

“But my problem with how President Trump has handled this is not that he’s had meetings. It’s that there isn’t a plan and there isn’t a real negotiation tactic. And he is not working with our allies as he should,” Klobuchar said. “I also don’t believe we should be conducting our foreign policy by tweet. It’s a very, very hard thing to do, but you have got to quietly work, and you have got to have summits that produce results where you don’t just fly over, get no result, and come home.”

NOW THE REAL BUDGET WORK BEGINS: Last week, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith and ranking member Mac Thornberry began the arduous process of beginning to draft the National Defense Authorization Act, known as the NDAA.

The two introduced HR 2500, the “by request” version of the defense policy bill. “This procedural measure is the first step in the legislative process for the NDAA,” said a statement from the committee. The legislation filed this week does not reflect any substantive work by the committee, which noted that at this point all the provisions in the bill reflect legislative proposals submitted by the Department of Defense.

The next step will be for the committee to replace the Pentagon’s wish list with proposals drafted by the full committee and its subcommittees.

‘LOVES FREEDOM AND CATS’: Britain’s new defense minister, Penny Mordaunt, is the first woman to hold the post, and she’s a bit of a change from Gavin Williamson, who was fired last week after reportedly criticizing Prime Minister Theresa May in private.

Mordaunt, Agence France Press reports, is “[b]est-known for sporting a swimsuit on television and for her strident support for Brexit.”

On her Twitter feed, she describes herself as “MP for Portsmouth North, Secretary of State for @DefenceHQ and Minister for @WomenEqualities. Loves freedom and cats.”

NEW GITMO CMDR: Over the weekend, Rear Adm. Timothy Kuehhas took over as the commander of Joint Task Force Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Last month, Rear Adm. John Ring was relieved of command by Adm. Craig Faller for a “loss of confidence” following an investigation.

Kuehhas previously served at U.S. Navy Fleet Forces Command in Norfolk, Va., as the director of fleet and joint training.

ICEMAN COMETH: President Trump has picked a former Obama administration official who is more in line with his hard-line views on immigration to be the next head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

“I am pleased to inform all of those that believe in a strong, fair and sound Immigration Policy that Mark Morgan will be joining the Trump Administration as the head of our hard working men and women of ICE. Mark is a true believer and American Patriot. He will do a great job!” Trump tweeted. In a later tweet, Trump added, “Pending the confirmation of Mark Morgan as our Nation’s new ICE Director, Matt Albence will serve in the role of Acting Director.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Pentagon: China increasing military strength with aim of being a ‘world-class’ power by 2049

USNI News: China Can’t Execute Major Amphibious Operations, Direct Assault on Taiwan

Washington Examiner: Trump’s Venezuela struggles draw comparison to Obama’s with Syria

Reuters: Turkey Says It Will Not Bow To U.S. Sanctions Over S-400 Deal

Stars and Stripes: More U.S. troops bound for Poland, defense minister says

AP: Taliban Say Gap Narrowing In Talks With U.S. Over Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal

Forbes: A Space Force That Would Make A Difference

Defense One: Robots and Lasers Are Bringing Shipbuilding into the Digital Age

CNN: ‘Russian Spy’ Whale Shines Spotlight On Military-Grade Animals

Washington Post: DOD Funds Research Into Microbes That May Help Combat Superbugs, Biological Agents

Washington Examiner: Navy investigating harrowing Boeing 737 crash in Florida

Military Times: Gold Star families who saw huge tax bill hikes could get relief from Congress

Washington Post: Iran’s Spiritual Gambit In Iraq

Calendar

MONDAY | MAY 6

9:30 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor. The Navy League’s 54th annual Sea-Air-Space Exposition, with the theme “Sustainability, Agility, Superiority.” Adm. John Richardson, chief of naval operations, delivers the keynote luncheon address at 12:15 p.m. www.seaairspace.org

10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue N.W. Henry L. Stimson Center discussion on “Growth in Global Arms Transfers and Military Spending.” Speakers: Aude Fleurant, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Arms and Military Expenditure Program, and Rachel Stohl, managing director of Stimson.

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave N.W. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a conversation on Michael O’Hanlon’s new book, The Senkaku Paradox: Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes.

12 noon. White House, Rose Garden. President Trump presents the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the U.S. Military Academy Football Team.

1:30 p.m. United States Institute of Peace discussion on “China’s Role in North Korea Nuclear and Peace Negotiations.” Speakers: Former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute; former U.S. ambassador to China J. Stapleton Roy, founding director emeritus of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States; former U.S. special representative for North Korea policy Joseph Yun, senior adviser at USIP; former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens, president of the Korea Economic Institute of America; and Jennifer Staats, East and Southeast Asia programs director at USIP. www.usip.org

3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies event with Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., who discusses her first visit to Iraq since her Black Hawk was shot down during Operation Iraqi Freedom with CSIS Middle East program director John Alterman. www.csis.org

7:30 p.m. 2800 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. Woodrow Wilson Center’s 2019 Awards Dinner. Participants: Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley; Wes Bush, chairman of the Northrop Grumman Corporation; former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., director, president, and CEO of WWC; former Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., partner at Holland & Knight; and Donald McLellan, managing director of BDT & Company International LLP.

TUESDAY | MAY 7

6:45 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor. Day two of the Navy League’s 54th annual Sea-Air-Space Exposition, with the theme “Sustainability, Agility, Superiority.” Navy undersecretary Thomas Modley speaks at 6:45 a.m. and Assistant Navy Secretary James Guerts delivers the luncheon keynote address at 12:15 p.m. www.seaairspace.org

7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington. Association of the United States Army Land Warfare Educational Program discussion with Gen. John Murray, commanding general of Army Futures Command.

8 a.m. 58 East 68th Street, New York. Council on Foreign Relations discussion with House Armed Services ranking member Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, on “The American Military.”

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies event, “The Army’s New Air and Missile Defense Strategy.”

WEDNESDAY | MAY 8

6:45 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. National Harbor. Day three of the Navy League’s 54th annual Sea-Air-Space Exposition, with the theme “Sustainability, Agility, Superiority.” Navy Secretary Richard Spencer delivers the luncheon keynote address at 12:15 p.m. www.seaairspace.org

8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. National Defense Industrial Association, the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, the Air Force Association and the Reserve Officers Association forum on “Missile Defense and Nuclear Deterrence and Alliance Relations.” Speakers: Tom Karako, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Frank Rose, senior fellow for security and strategy at the Brookings Institution. www.afa.org/hbs

9 a.m. 801 Wharf St. S.W. Foundation for Defense of Democracies event “Rising to the Threat: Revitalizing America’s Military and Political Power.” Speakers include retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former national security adviser; Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, U.S. Central Command head; Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee; and retired Lt. Gen. Ed Cardon, former U.S. Army Cyber Command head. Invitation only.

10 a.m. 310 Cannon. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on “Confronting the Rise of Domestic Terrorism in the Homeland.” Witnesses: Assistant FBI Director for Counterterrorism Michael McGarrity; Principal Deputy Homeland Security Undersecretary for Intelligence and Analysis Brian Murphy; and Deputy Assistant Attorney General for National Security Brad Wiegmann. homeland.house.gov

11 a.m. Foyer, Rayburn. National Defense Industrial Association 2019 Missile Defense Day on the Hill to discuss the latest advances in missile technology. www.ndia.org

12 p.m. 1800 M Street N.W. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Brookings Institution sponsor an invitation-only discussion on Operation Tidal Wave II and its role in the destruction of the Islamic State’s finances. Speakers: Retired Gen. John Allen, president of the Brookings Institution; David Asher, former State Department official and FDD senior fellow; and retired Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, former commander of the coalition against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Moderated by Nancy Youssef, national security correspondent at the Wall Street Journal.

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing on “FY2020 Priorities for Missile Defense and Missile Defeat Programs.” Witnesses: Robert Behler, operational test and evaluation director in the office of the defense secretary; James Anderson, assistant defense secretary for strategy, plans and capabilities; Air Force Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy, commander of U.S. Northern Command; Air Force Lt. General Samuel Greaves, director of the Missile Defense Agency; and Navy Vice Adm. David Kriete, deputy commander of U.S. Strategic Command. www.armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. 2154 Rayburn. House Oversight and Reform National Security Subcommittee hearing on “Veteran and Active-Duty Military Suicides.” oversight.house.gov

THURSDAY | MAY 9

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a discussion on the consequences of cutting U.S. aid to the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Speakers: Leah Campos, former senior staff for the House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman; Dan Fisk, COO of the International Republican Institute and former senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council; former U.S. ambassador to Guatemala Stephen McFarland; Katie Taylor, executive director of the Pan American Development Foundation; Rebecca Chavez, nonresident senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue and former deputy assistant defense secretary for the Western Hemisphere; Mark Schneider, nonresident senior adviser at the CSIS Americas Program and Human Rights Initiative; Michael Matera, director and senior fellow at the CSIS Americas Program; Daniel Runde, senior vice president and global analysis chair at CSIS and director of the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development; and Erol Yayboke, deputy director and senior fellow at the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development and the Project on U.S. Leadership in Development. www.csis.org

FRIDAY | MAY 10

10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Rules in War – A Thing of the Past?” Speakers: Peter Maurer, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker; Charles Stimson, manager of the Heritage Foundation’s National Security Law Program; J. Stephen Morrison, director of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center; and Kimberly Flowers, director of the CSIS Global Food Security Project. www.csis.org