PLAYING A BAD HAND: If you’re looking for a graphic depiction of what U.S. special representative Zalmay Khalilzad is up against as he tries to bring the Taliban to the peace table with the American-backed Afghan government, the living map maintained by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal is a good place to start.
The map, based on open-source information, shows the breakdown of Taliban control by districts and population centers. The data show that half of Afghanistan’s population lives under Taliban controlled or contested districts.
While the Afghan government controls more districts (140) than the Taliban (66), almost half are contested, meaning “the government may be in control of the district center, but little else, and the Taliban controls large areas or all of the areas outside of the district center.”
“Districts have been retaken (by both sides) only to be lost shortly thereafter, largely resulting in the conflict’s current relative stalemate,” write FDD’s Bill Roggio and Alexandra Gutowski. “However, since the U.S. drawdown of peak forces in 2011, the Taliban has unquestionably been resurgent.”
FAILED STRATEGY: The revamped U.S. strategy announced by President Trump two years ago this month was supposed the end the stalemate and convince the Taliban it could not win on the battlefield and had no choice but to sue for peace. “Conditions on the ground — not arbitrary timetables — will guide our strategy from now on,” Trump said on Aug. 21, 2017. “America’s enemies must never know our plans or believe they can wait us out.”
But in telegraphing its desperation for a deal that would allow the withdrawal of thousands of U.S. troops and the effective end of the NATO Resolute Support mission, the Trump administration has given the Taliban the upper hand in the negotiations.
The Taliban is still refusing a key U.S. demand, that it negotiate directly with the Afghan government that it has denounced as an American puppet.
WAR ENTERS ‘A CRITICAL PERIOD’: Anthony Cordesman, the Arleigh Burke chairman in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is out with a new critical analysis on the state of play in Afghanistan, based on all the recent official reports as well as outside sources.
His sobering assessment: “Afghanistan is a ‘failed state’ whose civil structure is poorly prepared for either peace or for continuing the war. … Afghan politics are both corrupt and deeply divided.” He adds that “there is little prospect that this situation will change.”
“In summary, the official views on the course of the fighting data are mixed, uncertain, and increasingly politicized. They do, however, make it clear that the Taliban remains a major force, and they do raise critical questions about whether the Afghan Government can survive any major cuts in U.S. military aid, train and assist efforts, and combat support if there is no peace settlement,” Cordesman said.
ECHOS OF VIETNAM: Cordesman sees eerie parallels to the U.S. efforts to end the Vietnam War under President Richard Nixon’s “peace with honor” policy, arguing that without “some form of continuing U.S. presence, aid, and security guarantees,” the Taliban may take over the country the same way the North took over Vietnam in the 1970s.
“There are far too many similarities to a similar period in the Vietnam War when the ARVN [South Vietnamese Army] at least appeared to be far stronger before a peace settlement — and a U.S. withdrawal — than the ANSF [Afghan National Security Forces] appears to be today.”
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Operations at Hong Kong’s airport are pretty much back to normal after protests that shut down the main terminal for two days. China has moved troops close to the border with Hong Kong, and Chinese troops garrisoned in Hong Kong have so far remained in their barracks but have released a video showing “anti-riot” exercises, and its top brass have warned violence is “absolutely impermissible.”
TRUMP ON HONG KONG: ‘I HOPE IT WORKS OUT’: While there are bipartisan calls in Congress to send a clear message to Beijing to resist the use of force to put down demonstrations in Hong Kong, President Trump is taking a softer tone as he seeks a new trade deal with China.
“Well, the Hong Kong thing is a very tough situation. Very tough. We’ll see what happens, but I’m sure it’ll work out. I hope it works out for everybody, including China, by the way,” Trump said yesterday. “It’s a very tricky situation. I think it’ll work out, and I hope it works out for liberty. … I hope it works out peacefully. I hope nobody gets hurt. I hope nobody gets killed.”
CALL FOR A BOYCOTT: Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott is among those calling for a tougher stance to warn Beijing away from any use of force in Hong Kong, suggesting Americans boycott Chinese products.
“American taxpayers cannot continue to support China’s aggression, and must start supporting American businesses over Chinese products,” said Scott. “This is about protecting human rights.”
“Scott’s call is the latest sign of congressional frustration with China, as lawmakers have threatened to review federal legislation that eases trade relations with Hong Kong if the mainland Chinese government backs an even more brutal crackdown,” writes Joel Gehrke in the Washington Examiner.
A SERIOUS RUPTURE: A military operation against Hong Kong protesters could trigger a rupture in U.S.-China relations that makes the trade war look minor in comparison, warns Arkansas Republican Sen. Tom Cotton.
“If Beijing cracked down on Hong Kong, it would require a fundamental reassessment of our relations with their country, the kind that should have happened after Tiananmen Square,” Cotton said yesterday.
‘WE ARE ALL HONG KONGERS’: Frank Gaffney of the Center for Security Policy thinks Trump should take a page from President John F. Kennedy’s playbook, recalling one of the defining moments of the Cold War.
In June 1963, Kennedy declared in German ‘I am a Berliner,” which sent a clear message to the Kremlin.
“America’s bipartisan leadership should declare today that ‘We are Hong Kongers.’ If combined with a commitment to end the Chinese Communists’ ability to exploit Hong Kong’s Most Favored Nation trade status in the event its autonomy is ended, deterrence may just work again,” said Gaffney in his radio commentary.
UNDER A CLOUD: After President Trump lent a sympathetic ear to companies that complain they were not able to compete fairly for the Pentagon’s $10 billion cloud computing contract, Defense Secretary Mark Esper promised a review of the process.
Yesterday, the Pentagon’s independent inspector general announced it has assembled “a multidisciplinary team of auditors, investigators, and attorneys” to examine all aspects of the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure or “JEDI” cloud program.
“We are reviewing the DoD’s handing of the JEDI cloud acquisition, including the development of requirements and the request for proposal process,” said spokeswoman Dwrena Allen, in a statement emailed to the Washington Examiner. “In addition, we are investigating whether current or former DoD officials committed misconduct relating to the JEDI acquisition, such as whether any had any conflicts of interest related to their involvement in the acquisition process.”
The review is already underway and making substantial progress, according to Allen. “We recognize the importance and time sensitive nature of the issues, and we intend to complete our review as expeditiously as possible.”
WHAT’S THE BIGGER THREAT?: Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer plans to ask the Trump administration to divert a $5 billion wall funding allocation to programs aimed at ending gun violence and “violent white supremacist extremism.”
A Democratic source tells the Washington Examiner’s Susan Ferrechio the New York Democrat plans to make the formal request “soon” and increase pressure on the Trump administration to take action following three recent mass shootings.
“The dual scourges of gun violence and violent white supremacist extremism in this country are a national security threat plain and simple, and it’s time the Trump administration and Republicans in congress starting treating them as such,” Schumer said in a statement. “Now Republicans and this administration need to put their money where their mouth is when it comes to addressing gun violence and stopping the rise of domestic terrorism, especially stemming from white supremacy.”
KIA UPDATE: The Pentagon has updated its release on the death in Iraq of Marine Corps Gunnery Sgt. Scott A. Koppenhafer to indicate he was fatally wounded while supporting Iraqi Security Forces Saturday. The previous release said Koppenhafer died after “being engaged by enemy small arms fire while conducting combat operations.”
The change reflects the fact that the military is now investigating whether Koppenhafer may have been accidentally killed by friendly fire from U.S. or Iraqi forces.
LESS SAID THE BETTER: This is a verbatim release from the State Department, attributable to spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus:
“Director Yang Jiechi and Secretary Michael R. Pompeo had an extended exchange of views on U.S.-China relations.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Pentagon says US can defend against Russian and Chinese missile threats — if it’s willing to invest
The Hill: Russia Boasts of Winning Arms Race Days After Fatal Missile Explosion
Washington Post: Russian villagers told to leave — no, stay — following missile test explosion
USNI News: Two U.S. Warships, Marines Denied Port Visits to Hong Kong Amidst Protests
New York Times: China Wages a Manipulated Information War Against Demonstrators
Al-Monitor: Pentagon sends team to scout Syria safe zone
Bloomberg: U.S. Navy Sub Firepower Upgrade Delayed by Welding Flaws
Wall Street Journal: Iran, U.K. Inch Closer To Tanker Crisis Resolution
AP: Russian Fighter Jet Wards Off NATO F-18 Nearing Defense Minister’s Plane
New York Times: Besieged by ‘Continuous Coup,’ Maduro Tortures Foes in Military
Virginian Pilot: This aircraft carrier skipper fled Iran as a child. Now he’s preparing to deploy amid heightened tensions
Washington Examiner: Dan Crenshaw inked six-figure book deal before coming to Congress
Axios: The national security space race
National Defense: Great Power Competition Extends to Arctic
Forbes: How the U.S. Army Can Play a Much Bigger Pacific Role Deterring China
The American Conservative: Military Spending: Ignoring the $738 Billion Elephant in the Room
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 14
8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies forum on “Update on China’s Strategic Offense and Defense Forces” and “China in a Future INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty,” with Rick Fisher, senior fellow in Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, and Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events
THURSDAY | AUGUST 15
8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington. National Defense Industrial Association discussion with Rear Adm. Francis Morley, director of the Navy International Programs Office. www.ndia.org
11:30 a.m. 1750 Independence Avenue S.W. Friends of the National World War II Memorial holds the 75th anniversary commemoration of Operation Dragoon, the Allied invasion of southern France to divide the nation’s German occupiers. www.wwiimemorialfriends.org
TUESDAY | AUGUST 20
8:00 a.m. 2201 G Street N.W. Defense Writers Group breakfast, with Gen. James Holmes, commander, Air Combat Command. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Afghan forces are years away from being able to stand on their own, and is now critically dependent on U.S. and allied support in terms of military aid funds, train and assist personnel, direct combat support, and U.S. air power.”
Anthony Cordesman, in his latest analysis for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “The State of the Fighting in the Afghan War in Mid-2019”
