Trump is getting plenty of advice on the Pentagon’s budget. Will he take it?

REPUBLICANS VS. TRUMP ON DEFENSE: President Trump’s proposed 5 percent cut to defense is triggering an unlikely struggle between Republicans in Congress and Trump’s Republican White House. Nearly 70 House lawmakers, virtually all members of the GOP, are now urging the president to abandon his order to reduce planned spending from $733 billion to $700 billion.

“We, the undersigned, strongly urge you to uphold your commitment of $733 billion to restore our nation’s military as you complete the fiscal year 2020 President’s Budget. Cuts to defense spending will have disastrous consequences for our military readiness, as was proven by sequestration,” the group led by Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, an Armed Services subcommittee chairman, wrote in a letter to the president.

‘NO RATIONALE’ FOR CUTS: The House lawmakers released the letter just after Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., the Senate Armed Services chairman, delivered his own public argument against slashing defense during an appearance at Fort McNair — billed as his first address since taking over the committee following John McCain’s death. Inhofe traveled to the White House Tuesday with Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, the House Armed Services chairman, and said he spent over two hours with Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and National Security Advisor John Bolton making his case, though the White House has not signaled any final decision.

“Maybe it’s something like exempting the military from the budget caps. There is a number of things that we can do. But the main thing today is to make sure that we are going to be in a position where we can compete primarily with our peer competitors. And let me tell you, the president knows that. So anyway, there’s no strategic rationale for any cut,” Inhofe said.

WALKING ON EGGSHELLS: Trump’s Pentagon appointees have to walk a careful line in opposing his cuts so as not to seem insubordinate while trying to gently convince him of the error of his ways. “As you know, with the chain of command, we salute and march out smartly,” said Navy Secretary Richard Spencer at a Center for Strategic And International Studies event yesterday. “I’m a tad bit limited on what I can say. It is the president’s budget and the top line hasn’t been presented to us yet.”

But Spencer was clear he believes cutting the budget now, as the Navy is just getting a handle on restoring readiness, would be devastating. “Some of the scenarios will make your eyes water with what we might have to do if the numbers are certain numbers,” he said, referring to alternate $700 billion budget prepared for Trump.

“We have such great tailwind right now, and we’ve laid the foundation and spent this money to get us going in the right direction,” Spencer said. His message: “The bicycle is up, we are peddling, please don’t knock us over.”

INHOFE ON ADAM SMITH: The president’s ultimate top-line request, when it comes to the Hill in February, could either bolster or undercut the Republicans. But wrangling between Inhofe and Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., who is expected to be House Armed Services chairman, will be just as important for defense. The two appear headed for a collision on whether to update the country’s nuclear arsenal, which Inhofe has named as a priority while Smith remains deeply skeptical of the cost and need.

“We’re two different people with two different philosophies. Mr. Smith, he’s a good man, he’s someone that I like personally. We’ve gone through several of the Big Four conferences to come up with the defense authorization bill in the past and we will continue to do that,” Inhofe said. “But I think he made a mistake when he singled out our nuclear modernization … Our No. 1 threat facing us right now is what’s happened to our nuclear capabilities.”

TO ALL THE HATERS: Inhofe went to Fort McNair on Thursday to sell his plan for a bigger defense budget, but he also took the opportunity to defend Trump’s record to the auditorium packed with uniformed service members. “Some of you in this room are probably among those who hate Trump. Well, that’s alright, but you need to recognize what this guy’s done,” Inhofe said during his speech and Q&A at National Defense University. Successes include Trump’s handling of the defense budget over the past two years, the economy, and new judges, he said.

“So, keep that in mind, it doesn’t really fit into the presentation here, but you got to realize this guy’s done a great job,” said Inhofe, who has been one of the president’s staunchest supporters in the Senate. But Inhofe allowed that he is bothered sometimes by Trump’s tweeting.

“Everybody hates Trump. You know, they do. They don’t like him. Hey, I have to admit, every time I hear that a, what do they call those, tweets, that a tweet is coming out at I cringe a little bit,” he said. “It would be kind of nice if he … changed the wording maybe a little bit. But how else can he circumvent the media?”

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HAPPENING TODAY: Sen. Mark Warner D-Va. is giving what his office bills as “a major policy speech” today to call for new U.S. cyber doctrine. Warner, vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and co-founder of the Senate Cybersecurity Caucus, will be speaking at 10:30 a.m. at the Center for a New American Security. Warner will call for a “whole-of-society” doctrine to respond to the cyber and misinformation threats facing our nation, according to a release from his office.

“Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, relying on a hybrid strategy of conventional cyber-theft, weaponized leaks, and wide-scale social media disinformation, marked a turning point in how we understand the threat landscape. And these active measures have continued well past the 2016 election, illustrating the pressing need for the United States to develop a clear and explicit plan for responding to any future attacks.”

NAUERT TO GET THE NOD: Multiple news organizations are reporting that State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert, a former Fox News host, will be named this morning by President Trump as his pick to replace Nikki Haley to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Like Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, Nauert would begin the job with a notable lack of foreign policy experience, but Trump is said to have been impressed with her performance articulating U.S. diplomatic goals at State.

The announcement could come this morning on Twitter, so keep an eye on Trump’s feed.

F-35 HITS ANOTHER MILESTONE: The F-35 Joint Program Office announced that the nation’s primary future fighter jet is ready for its close-up, with the start of the Initial Operational Test and Evaluation phases, known in Pentagonese as “IOT&E.” This is where the F-35 will have to show it can perform as advertised when it comes to effectiveness, suitability, lethality, survivability and overall mission capability its weapons system.

“From now and continuing through late summer 2019 all three F-35 Air System variants (A/B/C) will be field tested, under realistic combat conditions, for the purposes of determining the weapons systems’ operational effectiveness and operational suitability for combat,” said Joe DellaVedova, a spokesman for the Joint Program Office.

“The start of formal operational testing is a milestone more than 18 years in the making,” said Vice Adm. Mat Winter, executive officer of the F-35 program, in a statement. “It is the culmination of years of hard work and dedication from the joint government and industry team who completed the most comprehensive, rigorous and the safest developmental flight test program in aviation history.”

“By law, F-35 must undergo full combat testing to demonstrate that its “operationally effective and suitable” against the most sophisticated aviation and air defense threats before Pentagon can buy the bulk of a planned 2,456 aircraft,” reports Bloomberg, which notes that more than 320 F-35s are already operating from 15 bases worldwide and that successful testing “would result in first full-rate production contract of as many as 168 jets, up from 141 in a just-completed award.”

NOT JUST ONE INF VIOLATION: Russia has deployed “multiple battalions” of land-based intermediate-range cruise missiles for “offensive purposes” in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a senior State Department official told reporters yesterday.

“Moscow has fielded multiple battalions of SSC-8, and all of them are positioned for offensive purposes,” State Department Undersecretary Andrea Thompson, using the formal U.S. name for the missile, said during a media call. “If we want credible arms control deterrent, we’ve got to demonstrate that our treaties are worth the paper they’re written on.” The U.S. has given Russia 60 days to come into compliance with the landmark 1987 treaty, or the U.S. will withdraw.

At a forum sponsored by The Washington Post, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said yesterday the U.S. had little choice but to call Putin on his blatant violations.

“This is a message that has been delivered fairly consistently now over a couple of years. We’ve been public about it. We’ve been public with our allies about the concerns,” Dunford said. “In a perfect world, what I would say is that it’d be best if Russia would comply with the INF, which would set the conditions for a broader conversation about other arms control agreements to include the extension of START.”

“I will not obviously make this decision. I’ll make recommendations,” Dunford said. “But it’s very difficult for me to envision a progress in extending START II as an example if the foundation of that is noncompliance with the INF treaty.”

GOT A BETTER IDEA? In answer to critics who say it’s time for the U.S. to consider withdrawing from Afghanistan because of the lack of progress, Dunford said, “If someone has a better idea than we have right now, which is continuing to support the Afghans and continue to put pressure on those terrorist groups in the region, I’m certainly open to a dialogue on that.”

But Dunford said it would be a mistake to give up on the strategy that is designed to compel the Taliban to make a peace deal. “I have not recommended that we leave Afghanistan because, again, in my judgment, leaving Afghanistan not only would create instability in South Asia, but in my judgment would give a terrorist groups to the space within which to plan and conduct operations against the American people, the homeland, and our allies,” he said. “That really is the problem we’re trying to solve it now.”

MATTIS HEDGES ON ‘SMOKING GUN’: In remarks to reporters yesterday, Defense Secretary Mattis insisted he has made no final determination on a direct linkage between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. And that his “no smoking gun” comment was a reflection of his caution in reaching conclusions before all the evidence is in.

Mattis was on the defensive after being accused by some senators of both parties of misleading Congress about the conclusion of the CIA, which has assessed with high confidence MBS was behind the killing from the start.

“We are continuing to review. I am quite satisfied we will find more evidence of what happened,” Mattis said, according to a transcript released by the Pentagon yesterday. “I just don’t know yet what it’s going to be or who’s going to be implicated, but we will follow it as far as we can,” he said. Mattis insisted he was just being careful. “If I say something, I need the evidence,” he said.

“There are sincere, studious people who are drawing different conclusions. We are doing everything we can to go down every rabbit hole to find what’s there,” he added. “So just bear with us. When we speak, it’ll be with the authority and I will not speculate or draw premature conclusions, but we are leaving no stone unturned.”

HALEY: ‘THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT DOESN’T GET A PASS’: In an exit interview with The Atlantic out this morning, Nikki Haley weighs in on the Khashoggi affair. Here’s an excerpt from the full transcript:

“Everything’s not black and white. That’s the hard part. But the way we have to look at that is, we have worked very closely with Saudi Arabia on Yemen, really pushing them to allow humanitarian access — to move faster, to give more. That’s been a lot of our focus at the Security Council on what happened. The whole situation with Khashoggi is, we can’t give them a pass. We can’t. And the reason is, you have Saudi government officials that did this in a Saudi consulate. The Saudi government doesn’t get a pass. We can’t condone it, we can’t ever say it’s okay, we can’t ever support thuggish behavior, and we have to say that. I think that the main thing is: No, we don’t condone this; no, we’re not going to continue to be your partners if you continue to use thuggish behavior. But you know what? That country is our complete partner when it comes to fighting Iran, and our only real partner when it comes to fighting Iran, so it’s a balancing act, but you have to do both.”

FEWER BORDER TROOPS ON BORDER: Mattis also indicated while he has, at the request of DHS, extended the deployment of active-duty troops to the Southwest border until the end of next month, some of the troops will be coming home. And some fresh troop will be rotated in.

“On the federal troops, you will see a reduction in the number of federal troops,” Mattis said, who noted that the troops are still limited to logical support, and most of what they have been asked to do has been done. “The missions that are done, they’re coming home. So that will leave a modicum of engineers out there. You don’t need many to move the last Jersey barriers or barbed wire barricades into position.”

Mattis said some of the troops who missed Thanksgiving with their families will be home for Christmas. “For those who are there, we will be rotating those … We don’t leave the same unit on the border all the time. So, as they rotate off the border, they go back to regular duty, another unit’s down there.”

HERE WE GO AGAIN: Meanwhile, President Trump is warning that immigrants may rush the border in Arizona. “Arizona, together with our Military and Border Patrol, is bracing for a massive surge at a NON-WALLED area. WE WILL NOT LET THEM THROUGH. Big danger. Nancy and Chuck must approve Boarder Security and the Wall!,” Trump tweeted last night.

Mattis, though indicated all the “engineering tasks” are complete in both Arizona and Texas, and yesterday presumptive House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi said there would be no deal for more border wall funding. The California Democrat instead called for a year-long continuing resolution that would freeze DHS spending at this year’s level. Pelosi called the wall “immoral, ineffective and expensive.”

“The president said he promised it. He also promised Mexico would pay for it. So even if they did, it’s immoral still, and then they’re not going to pay for it,” she said.

STILL SEARCHING: The Marine Corps confirmed that one of the two Marines rescued after a collision off the coast of Japan on Wednesday did not survive after being plucked from the ocean, as search and rescue operations continue for the remaining five Marines.

The crash involved two aircraft — a KC-130 refueling tanker and an F/A-18 fighter jet. The Marine Corps said the aircraft took off from Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Japan as part of standard training, but they collided off the coast at approximately 2 a.m.

OPEN SKIES SYMBOLISM: The U.S. has conducted an overflight of Ukraine, under the terms of a 16-year-old arms control treaty, aimed at sending a symbolic message to Moscow, the Pentagon said yesterday. “The United States and Allies conducted an extraordinary flight under the Open Skies Treaty,” said a statement, released on the Pentagon’s website. “The timing of this flight is intended to reaffirm U.S. commitment to Ukraine and other partner nations.”

The description of the flight as “extraordinary” refers to the fact it was not previously scheduled or announced, an official said. The plane, a U.S. Air Force OC-135 observation plane, did not fly over Crimea or any contested or Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine, the official confirmed. On board were observers from the U.S., Canada, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Romania, and Ukraine.

THE RUNDOWN

Washington Examiner: State Department deflects calls to expel Saudi prince from US

Washington Post: Marine Corps aviation disaster that killed 16 renews questions about U.S. military aircraft safety

The Atlantic: Nikki Haley Is Emerging From the Trump Administration Unscathed

Business Insider: Nancy Pelosi says funding for Trump’s ‘immoral, ineffective, expensive’ border wall is off the table

Bloomberg: Air Force’s Repeated Errors Let Texas Shooter Buy Firearms, Report Says

Bloomberg: F-35 Combat Testing Phase Begins After 15-Month Delay: Pentagon

Military Times: Russia asked to joint operate a US base in Syria. Coalition says hard pass.

New York Times: Afghan Election Dispute Brews as U.S. Pushes for Peace Talks

Roll Call: Congress Passes Two-Week Funding Extension to Avert Shutdown

Defense One: The F-35 Is About to Get A Lot Smarter

Foreign Policy: Trump’s Push to Boost Lethal Drone Exports Reaps Few Rewards

Military.com: SecNav Voices Support for Space Agency, Offensive Cyber Ops

Bloomberg: Air Force’s Repeated Errors Let Texas Shooter Buy Firearms, Report Says

Washington Post: INF Treaty walked superpowers back from a Cold War nuclear showdown

Defense News: The Air Force may scale back the responsibilities of its international affairs office

Air Force Magazine: Kelly: Parts are Key to Mattis’ Readiness Order

Wall Street Journal: Senior Huawei Executive’s Arrest Steps Up U.S.-China Confrontation

Calendar

FRIDAY | DEC. 7

9 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Saudi Arabia’s War in Yemen with Rep. Ro Khanna. cato.org

10:30 a.m. 1152 15th St. NW. A New Doctrine for Cyberwarfare and Information Operations with Sen. Mark Warner. cnas.org

MONDAY | DEC. 10

7:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. SLAAD Winter Quarterly Meeting. ndia.org

10:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Bridging the Data-Policy Gap on Counterterrorism: A Discussion of the Sixth Global Terrorism Index. usip.org

TUESDAY | DEC. 11

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Future of the U.S. Aircraft Carrier: Fearsome Warship or Expensive Target? heritage.org

11 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Paper Release: “A Preface to Strategy: The Foundations of American National Security.” sais-jhu.edu

11 a.m. 46870 Tate Rd. NDIA Patuxent River Speaker Series with Todd Balazs, Digital Integration Officer for Naval Air Systems Command. ndia.org

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on the Department of Defense’s Artificial Intelligence Structure, Investments, and Applications with Lisa Porter, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, and Dana Deasy, Pentagon Chief Information Officer. armedservices.house.gov

4:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A National Security Crisis Lecture with Sen. Jon Kyl. heritage.org

WEDNESDAY | DEC. 12

8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Rep. Adam Smith.

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Subcommittee Hearing on Navy and Marine Corps Readiness with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer; Gen. Robert Neller, Marine Corps Commandant; and Vice Adm. Bill Moran, Vice Chief Of Naval Operations. armed-services.senate.gov

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Subcommittee Hearing on Implications of China’s Presence and Investment in Africa. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Association of the United States Army Job Fair. ausa.org

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How should the transatlantic alliance counter Russian aggression? brookings.edu

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Why Do Russia and the US Need Each Other: Foreign Policy and National Identity. wilsoncenter.org

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on Security Clearance Processing Status Report with Garry Reid, Director for Defense Intelligence; Dan Payne, Director of Defense Security Service; and Charles Phalen, Director of the National Background Investigations Bureau. armed-services.senate.gov

4 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Our Uncertain Nuclear Future: How Do We Proceed if Treaties are Trashed? stimson.org

THURSDAY | DEC. 13

8:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. Hypersonics Senior Executive Series with Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan and Under Secretary Michael Griffin. ndia.org

9:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How Can U.S. Foreign Policymakers Do Better for the Middle Class? carnegieendowment.org

2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Humanitarian and National Security Crisis in Yemen: An Update and Path Forward with Sen. Todd Young. csis.org

5 p.m. Book Launch of “Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict” with Author Jacob Shapiro. csis.org

5 p.m. 700 F St. NW. Cocktails and Conversation – The Human Machine Team: The Analyst of Today and Tomorrow. defenseone.com

FRIDAY | DEC. 14

6:45 a.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Special Topic Breakfast with Adm. Karl Schultz, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. navyleague.org

9 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. 2018 Cato Institute Surveillance Conference. cato.org

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I was a courtroom prosecutor. Give me this file, let me get in a courtroom, I’ll convict this guy.”
Outgoing Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, Mo., in a CNN interview, on evidence of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s complicity in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

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