Trump does 360 on Syria strategy, reinstating original plan, calming the Pentagon, reassuring allies

BACK TO PLAN A: So after all that, here we are back where we started. On Friday, after giving in to bipartisan pressure from Congress and threats from allies, President Trump insisted he was “not reversing course,” even as he agreed to leave 400 U.S. troops in Syria after the last bit of the ISIS caliphate has been liberated, expected sometime in the next month.

This was the plan from the beginning, that after ISIS was defeated on the ground the United States would withdraw the bulk of ts 2,200 troops, leaving behind several hundred to help train local security forces as part of the transition to “stability operations” aimed at preventing ISIS from coming back while maintaining the U.S. relationship with Kurdish and Arab fighters who battled ISIS on America’s behalf.

Trump portrayed the decision to abandon his abrupt December order to bring all U.S. ground troops home by April as a new idea, one that was drawing plaudits from other members of the U.S.-led coalition, who had threatened to leave if the United States pulled out entirely.

“I’m getting a lot of congratulations. At the same time, we can leave a small force along with others in the force, whether it’s NATO troops or whoever it might be so that it doesn’t start up again, and I’m OK,” Trump said. “It’s a very small, tiny fraction of the people we have and a lot of people like that idea and I’m open to ideas.”

HUGE SIGH OF RELIEF: You could hear the relief in the comments of Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford in his brief exchange with reporters as he and Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan welcomed their Turkish counterparts to the Pentagon Friday.  

“I’m confident we can maintain the campaign we plan to,” said Dunford, who had warned publicly that the United States needed to train at least 30,000 members of local forces to keep the peace before it could leave. The president’s about-face means that plan can proceed pretty much as envisioned. “We always had planned to transition into a stabilization phase where we train local forces to provide security and prevent the regeneration of ISIS. So there is no change in the basic campaign,” Dunford said.

THE 80/20 SPLIT: The United States is expecting other countries to step up and do more during the stabilization as large sections of eastern Syria, devastated by the years-long campaign to defeat ISIS, have to be rebuilt.

“These 200 troops in northeastern Syria will attract about 1,000 NATO types. We will have a stabilizing force,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on Fox Business Network. Graham, who launched a personal crusade to get Trump to change his mind about the total withdrawal order that was issued without consultation with the U.S. military, was almost euphoric.

“What have we accomplished? ISIS will never come back now,” Graham told host Maria Bartiromo. “And what had been an 80 percent American presence, 20 percent European, is flipped to where the forces now will be 80 percent European, 20 percent American.”

THE SUCCESS OF THE STRATEGY: The U.S.-led effort to turn back ISIS after it swept across Syria and Iraq began under President Obama. It was dubbed “by, with, and through” because unlike with the “surge” that helped defeat the precursor of ISIS in Iraq in 2007, the United States would not do the fighting on the ground. Instead it would work “by, with, and through” local forces, which in Iraq was the Iraqi government.

But in Syria, where the regime of Bashar Assad was embarked on a civil war that was killing hundreds of thousands of his own people, the United States had no partners on the ground and so had to build relations with various anti-Assad factions. The strategy was methodical, and sometimes frustratingly slow, because it could proceed no faster than the local forces were willing to go.

But after more than three years, the fight is nearly over, with ISIS holding just a few blocks in their last redoubt.

Under President Trump more troops were sent to Syria, and under Defense Secretary Jim Mattis the strategy was tweaked to emphasize annihilating ISIS in one place, then pushing to other areas as cities were liberated. “Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan,” as President John F. Kennedy said after the failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.

But President Trump believes the lion’s share of credit belongs to him. “It will be 100 percent defeated. Nobody’s been able to say that,” Trump said of the impending end of the ISIS caliphate. “We’ve done a job that nobody else has been able to do.”

“Everybody’s admitting I did more in the last three or four weeks than people have done in years,” he added.

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: President Trump leaves today for Hanoi and round two of his denuclearization summitry with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un later this week. Trump is planning a strong economic pitch, suggesting that like the country hosting the talks, Vietnam, North Korea could be an economic miracle, if it just gives up its nuclear and missile ambitions.

“Chairman Kim realizes, perhaps better than anyone else, that without nuclear weapons, his country could fast become one of the great economic powers anywhere in the World. Because of its location and people (and him), it has more potential for rapid growth than any other nation!” Trump tweeted yesterday, while in another tweet dismissing criticism from Democrats and national security experts, who say North Korea has shown no sign it’s serious about denuclearization. “So funny to watch people who have failed for years, they got NOTHING, telling me how to negotiate with North Korea. But thanks anyway!”

NO US TROOP REDUCTION: In South Korea, speculation is running high that Trump may be prepared to declare a formal end to the Korean War, which ended with an armistice not a peace treaty.

U.S. and North Korean negotiators have been meeting in Hanoi in advance of the talks to draft a joint statement for Trump and Kim to sign that would include “verifiable denuclearization steps the North can take and corresponding measures by the U.S., which could include the declaration of a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War,” according to the South Korean Yonhap News Agency.

On Friday President Trump ruled out reducing the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, while insisting, “Everything is on the table. Everything.” Asked specifically whether drawing down U.S. troop numbers was a consideration, Trump said, “No, it’s not. That is not a consideration. That is not one of the things on the table.”

ALSO TODAY — PENCE TO COLOMBIA: Vice President Mike Pence is traveling to Colombia today to meet with regional leaders and opposition leader Juan Guaido, as the United States is threatening a more muscular response to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s violent response to efforts to bring humanitarian aid to his own people.

President Trump has refused to rule out some U.S. military action, and yesterday on Fox News Sunday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, “We said every option is on the table. We’re going to do the things that need to be done to make sure that the Venezuelan people’s voice, that democracy reigns and that there is a brighter future of the people of Venezuela.”

SHANAHAN TOURS THE BORDER: On Saturday, Acting Defense Secretary Shanahan and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dunford toured a section of the U.S.-Mexico border near El Paso, Texas, and Shanahan declared himself solidly behind the president’s plan to build more barriers.

Shanahan said after an aerial tour on a V-22 and talks with El Paso Sector Chief Aaron Hull, he was convinced “barriers work,” especially in areas where border patrol agents can’t respond fast enough. “Any place where you have people that can vanish in seconds or minutes where there is a highway. People can escape to or move into an urban area, that’s where we need a direct barrier,” Shanahan said Hull impressed upon him.

Shanahan stressed that while border security has not been a “traditional mission” for the Pentagon, the U.S. military has a long history of supporting civilian law enforcement along the border. And he said the Pentagon stands ready to help but at some point wants to bring troops back from the border.

WHOLESALE REDESIGN NEEDED: “There’s a wholesale redesign that has to occur,” said Shanahan. “I hope that we can bring a kind of broader approach to solving some of these problems. In the end, it really needs to be about stopping the illegal trafficking.”

Shanahan said he would be meeting with the civilian service secretaries this week to come up with a plan. “So number one is: How do we quickly address productivity or effectiveness of the border patrol? So, can I supplement skills, the monitoring and detection mission?” Shanahan said. He described the process as doing a “deep dive into how can we accelerate a response and build an actionable plan.”

BUDGETARY GYMNASTICS: Shanahan is still giving no hint of what military construction projects could be affected by the president’s plan to find $3.6 billion dollars in the budget to use for additional border wall. Under section 2808 of Title 10 of the U.S. code, once the president declares a national emergency, the defense secretary can move money from one military construction project to another.

“At this time, no decisions have been made regarding specific projects funded by Title 10 U.S.C., Section 2808 (MILCON) funding,” said Chris Sherwood, a Pentagon spokesman, in a email Friday.

But at a background briefing, two Pentagon officials laid out how the lawyers have figured out how to get around a key provision of the statute, that the construction funds must be spent on a project that is in direct support of the armed forces.

The officials said once it’s determined where the barriers are needed, the Department of Homeland Security will obtain the land and turn it over to the Pentagon. “The Army will accept jurisdiction of that land from DHS and establish the location as a military installation,” one official said. “So once DoD has jurisdiction of that land, even if the land is simply land, it can be defined as a military installation.”

YOU CAN’T SPEND MONEY TWICE: Also on Friday we learned that another pot of money that Trump wants to tap, $2.5 billion in Pentagon counter-narcotics funds, has already mostly been allocated.

“One action the president has already taken proved to be unsuccessful,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. “By taking more than $2 billion out of a particular defense line spending, they found out that that money had already been spent. So they’re clearly not only doing the wrong thing, they don’t know what they’re doing.”

Tomorrow the House is scheduled to vote on a bill blocking President Trump’s emergency declaration, which is sure to pass the House but just as certain to fail in the end, even if it makes it through the Senate.

“We might lose a few Republicans in the Senate. All you need is 51 to get it out of the Senate,” said Graham on Fox. “So it will pass the House with a handful of Republican votes. It’ll come to the Senate. It might get 51. It’ll get vetoed by the president. And Republicans will stand with the president to sustain his veto, and it will be deader than dead.”

HOUSING OF SHAME: Senior Army leaders met with the top executives of seven private housing companies last week in the wake of reports of deplorable housing conditions at military bases across the country.

The CEOs and senior executives of companies that manage roughly 87,000 units on more than 40 Army installations promised to allow soldiers to suspend their rent payments and certain fees if they believe they are being forced to live in substandard conditions. They also agreed to develop a “Tenant Bill of Rights” that would spell out procedures for remediating problems.

Also last week, the commandant of the Marine Corps issued a directive telling all Marine Corps commanders and senior enlisted leaders to request voluntary inspections of housing conditions at government quarters, privatized military housing, and off-base civilian rental properties.

In releasing the “white letter,” Gen. Robert Neller said, “I expect commanders to know where their Marines and Sailors are living and to actively advocate on their behalf. Because we care, we have an obligation to be personally invested in the lives and welfare of our Marines and their families.”

ROOTING OUT EXTREMISTS: In the wake of the charges against an active-duty Coast Guardsman who was apparently plotting mass murder, former Homeland Security secretary Jeh Johnson said Sunday that the military needs to do a better job of “rooting out” extremists.

“The U.S. military, our services, should be apolitical. And for the most part they are. They’re apolitical, they’re remarkable professionals. To go down the road of probing people’s views on things is a dangerous road,” Johnson said on NBC’s Meet the Press.

“We do, I think, need to do a better job of rooting out people who harbor extremist views that could turn to violence. And again, I think the good news story here is that, we did, in fact, uncover this individual’s plans and his hatred before he was able to act on it.”

THE KALASHNIKOV KAMIKAZE DRONE: The Washington Post reports that as the Kalashnikov assault rifle changed the world, so will the Kalashnikov kamikaze drone. Here’s the key takeaway:

“With its low price, high efficiency and ease of use, the Kalashnikov rifle became the weapon of choice for revolutionaries and insurgents around the world, empowering disgruntled citizens against their governments in Latin America, Africa and Asia. It remains a potent tool to this day: The Pentagon purchases secondhand Kalashnikov rifles for its allies in Syria and Afghanistan, rather than give them more expensive American-made guns.

The Kalashnikov drone — officially named the KUB-UAV — will likewise be simple to operate, effective and cheap, its manufacturers claim — and just as revolutionary. It will mark ‘a step toward a completely new form of combat,’ said Sergey Chemezov, chairman of Russia’s state-owned Rostec arms manufacturer, which owns a controlling stake in Kalashnikov, according to Kalashnikov’s news statement on the launch.”

THE RUNDOWN

Times of San Diego: San Diego-Based Group Wins U.S. Suit: Male-Only Draft Unconstitutional

Reuters: Lavrov Says Russia Could Police Syria-Turkey Safe Zone: Agencies

Military.com: Discarded Deadlines Let Polluted Plume from Wis. Military Base Spread Unchecked

Politico: 58 ex-national security officials to denounce Trump’s emergency declaration

The Virginian-Pilot: USS George HW Bush heads into shipyard for more than two years of updates

The Washington Post: In Japan’s Okinawa, voters deliver a resounding no to new US military base

The Telegraph: ‘You’re the first infidel I’ve seen in four years’: Isil women emerge defiant from last scrap of Syria territory

New York Times: Defender of World Order or Trump Mouthpiece? Pompeo Is Tested by North Korea, Iran and U.S. Allies

Virginian Pilot: USS George H.W. Bush Heads Into Shipyard For More Than Two Years Of Updates

Calendar

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 25

9 a.m 120 F Street N.W. Georgetown Law’s Journal of National Security Law & Policy holds annual symposium on “The Continuing Threat of Nuclear Weapons.” Speakers include David  Koplow, Georgetown Law; James Feinerman, Georgetown Law; Adam Mount, Federation of American Scientists; John Burroughs, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy; Alexandra Bell, Center for Arms Control & Non-Proliferation; Michael Krepon, Stimson Center; Bonnie Jenkins, Brookings Institute; Adam Scheinman, Former Special Representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation, Dept. of State; Dakota Rudesill, Ohio State University Moritz College of Law; Scott Snyder, Council on Foreign Relations; Joel S. Wit, Stimson Center; Sue Mi Terry, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Stephen Dycus, Vermont Law School.

9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue N.W. “Competing with Russia ‘Short of War’: How the U.S. and NATO Have Countered Russian Coercion Panel Discussion.” www.stimson.org

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 26

7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Breakfast with Ryan McCarthy, Under Secretary of the U.S. Army. www.ausa.org  

7:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 700. Breakfast discussion with Rep. Don Bacon. www.ndia.org

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Readiness and Seapower Subcommittee Joint Hearing: Naval Surface Forces Readiness: Are Navy Reforms Adequate? Witnesses: Adm. Christopher Grady, U.S. Fleet Forces Commander and Adm. John Aquilino, U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander.  www.armedservices.house.gov

10:15 a.m. 2172 Rayburn. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: On the Eve of the Summit: Options for U.S. Diplomacy on North Korea. Witnesses: Bill Richardson, former governor of New Mexico and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations; Victor Cha, senior adviser and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. www.foreignaffairs.house.gov

10:30 a.m. Constitution Ave. and 23rd Street N.W. Dedication of the National Desert Storm and Desert Shield Memorial Site near the Lincoln Memorial, honoring the service and sacrifice of the U.S. and Coalition military personnel who liberated Kuwait from Iraq and defended Saudi Arabia in 1991. Scheduled speakers: Scott Stump, president and CEO of National Desert Storm War Memorial Association; Rep. Phil Roe, R-Tenn; Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton, R-Ky.; retired Air Force Gen. Chuck Horner; Edward “Skip” Gnehm, former U.S. ambassador to Kuwait; and Abdullah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti ambassador. Open to the public.

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave N.E. “Modernizing the U.S. Sea-based Strategic Deterrent Force and the Need for 12 Columbia-class SSBNs.” www.heritage.org

12:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Does the U.S.-Iranian Relationship Have a Future?” www.wilsoncenter.org

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee: INF Withdrawal and the Future of Arms Control: Implications for the Security of the United States and its Allies. Witnesses: Former Sen. Richard Lugar, Former NATO Amb. Alexander Vershbow, Paula DeSutter, former assistant secretary of state. www.armedservices.house.gov  

2 p.m. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee: Department of Defense Information Technology, Cybersecurity, and Information Assurance. Witnesses: Dana Deasy, Pentagon chief information officer, Lisa Hershman, acting DoD chief management officer, and Marine Brig. Gen. Dennis Crall, deputy principal DoD cyber adviser. www.armedservices.house.gov  

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 27

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy: A Mid-Term Assessment. Witnesses: former secretary of state Madeleine Albright. www.foreignaffairs.house.gov   

10:15 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Rep. Seth Moulton, member of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces, will join Bryan McGrath, Hudson Institute’s Deputy Director of the Center for American Seapower, for a discussion on the future of the U.S. Navy and its role in American defense and foreign policy. Live streamed at www.hudson.org

11 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Drive. Expeditionary Warfare Division Annual Meeting. www.ndia.org

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing on Transgender Service Policy. Panel 1: Dr. Jesse Ehrenfeld, Lt. Cmdr. Blake Dremann, Army Capt. Alivia Stehlik, Army Capt. Jennifer Peace, Army Staff Sgt. Patricia King, and Navy HM3 Akira Wyatt. Panel 2: James Stewart, performing the duties of under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness, and Vice Adm. Raquel Bono, director of the Defense Health Agency. www.armedservices.house.gov  

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 28

8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2020 Budget and Policy Forum.” www.csis.org

8:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Congress and the National Defense Strategy: A bipartisan conversation with congressional national security leaders.” www.aei.org

9:30 a.m. Dirksen SD-G50. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Nuclear Policy and Posture. Witnesses: Madelyn R. Creedon, former principal deputy administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; Franklin C. Miller, former special assistant to the president of the United States and former senior director for defense policy and arms control, National Security Council staff; General C. Robert Kehler, USAF (ret.), former commander, United States Strategic Command. www.armed-services.senate.gov

FRIDAY | MARCH 1

12:15 p.m. 740 15th Street N.W. “Trump’s Taliban Negotiations: What it Means for Afghanistan.” www.newamerica.org

SUNDAY | MARCH 3

10:30 a.m. 8900 Little River Turnpike, Fairfax. Breakfast discussion with rocket scientist behind Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, Dr. Ari Sacher. jnf.org/vabreakfast

TUESDAY | MARCH 5

6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard. Breakfast discussion with Army chief information officer Lt. Gen. Bruce T. Crawford. www.ausa.org

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 6

10 a.m. Cannon 310. “The Way Forward on Border Security.” www.homeland.house.gov

MONDAY | MARCH 11

7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. www.carnegieendowment.org

TUESDAY | MARCH 12

7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference (Day 2). www.carnegieendowment.org

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 13

4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. “Putin’s World.” www.brookings.edu

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If it weren’t for us, name one Saudi that’s in a fight against Iran. The Houthis have been kicking the Saudi military. You know the arms sales? Bottom line is if it weren’t for us they’d be speaking Farsi. And what are they going to do? Not sell oil? They’ll starve. So I’m of the belief that people need us for more than we need them.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham

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