JOHNSON: WE SAID ‘YES’ BUT MEANT ‘NO’: Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Russia’s invasion is a direct result of NATO’s disingenuous pretense that Ukraine was being seriously considered for NATO membership, while the alliance was overtly signaling it was never going to happen. “In principle, yes; in practice, no. That has been the message.”
“For decades, we have used diplomatic doublespeak on the subject of NATO and Ukraine — and it has ended in total disaster,” Johnson wrote in an opinion essay in the Washington Post. “What have we achieved by speaking softly out of both sides of our mouths? The result is the worst war in Europe for 80 years.”
“People used to argue that the prospect of Ukrainian membership in NATO was ‘provocative’ to Putin and to Russia. In truth, we should never have accepted this argument,” he wrote. “I admit that for a time I accepted it.
”If we had been brave and consistent enough to bring Ukraine into NATO — if we had actually meant what we said — then this utter catastrophe would have been averted,” Johnson argued. “Putin didn’t invade because he thought that Ukraine was going to join NATO. He always knew that was vanishingly unlikely. He attacked Ukraine because he believed — with abundant evidence — that we were not really serious about protecting Ukraine. He attacked because he wanted to rebuild the old Soviet imperium and because he believed — foolishly — that he was going to win.”
WE SAY ‘NO’ BUT SHOULD MEAN ‘YES’: In an appearance on Fox News last night, Johnson told anchor Bret Baier that now is the time to pull out the stops and send Ukraine every possible weapon it needs to deal Putin a decisive defeat on the battlefield.
“I will say is that every time we have said that it will be a mistake to give such and such an item of weaponry, we end up doing it, and it ends up being the right thing for Ukraine,” he said when asked about sending U.S. F-16s as requested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “This is not the moment to delay any support for Ukraine. This is the moment to double down on our support. Give them what they need, whether it’s the tanks or the long-range artillery fires. They need to kick Putin out of the whole of the territory.”
“This all goes back to our failure in 2014 to punish Putin properly for what he had done. … You remember, he took the Crimea and he took the eastern parts of the Donbas and then he kept twisting the knife in the wound, and we never really punished him for it,” he said.
BIDEN TO SPEAK WITH ZELENSKY AFTER SAYING US WON’T GIVE UKRAINE FIGHTER JETS
STOP WORRYING ABOUT PUTIN: Johnson scoffed at the idea that Putin will actually resort to nuclear weapons and dismissed the threat Putin made to him in a phone call before the war as grim jocularity. “He threatened me at one point, and he said, ‘Boris, I don’t want to hurt you, but with a missile, it would only take a minute,’ or something like that. Jolly,” Johnson said in a BBC documentary.
“I think what Putin was trying to do was creep me out … trying to reduce it to a story about a nuclear standoff between Russia and NATO,” he told Fox News. “We have got to avoid being sucked down that rabbit hole. … We should focus on helping the Ukrainians and not worrying about what Putin is going to do next.”
Johnson argued that Putin knows going nuclear would mean Russia would lose the few allies it has right now, including support from China. “You know what? He probably doesn’t even stop the Ukrainians if he did that. And we would put his economy into such a cryogenic paralysis that Russia wouldn’t come out of it for decades.”
KREMLIN DENIES BORIS JOHNSON’S CLAIM OF PUTIN THREATENING MISSILE STRIKE
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HAPPENING TODAY: Today’s the day President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) meet at the White House to find if there is any common ground on budget cuts demanded by House Republicans in return for raising the debt ceiling, which is required to ensure the United States doesn’t default on debts already authorized by Congress.
McCarthy has indicated that Social Security and Medicare are off the table, but in a memo circulated yesterday, the White House said Biden wants to see a specific plan for proposed cuts to domestic spending and defense before committing to negotiate.
“Mr. President: I received your staff’s memo,” McCarthy responded on Twitter. “I’m not interested in political games. I’m coming to negotiate for the American people.”
MCCARTHY ENTERS THE LION’S DEN WITH HIS GAVEL AND BIDEN’S REELECTION ON THE LINE
ALSO TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Manila today where he will hold a joint press briefing with Philippine Secretary of National Defense Carlito Galvez that will be livestreamed by the Pentagon at 10 p.m. on defense.gov.
MONEYBALL FOR THE DOD: The conservative Heritage Foundation is not known for advocating cuts to the military, but yesterday, its president, Kevin Roberts, released a call to “scrutinize the Pentagon’s budget, line by line,” in an essay titled “Getting serious about responsible defense spending.”
“Most Republicans generally give lip service to the idea of cutting spending, but blink when it comes down to the wire,” Roberts wrote. “As lawmakers face an impending debt limit deadline yet again, they can’t behave as they’ve done in the past. Defense and non-defense spending must both be on the table.”
Roberts advocates taking a Moneyball approach to cuts, using data to determine whether every dollar spent by the Pentagon is actually increasing lethality. “Congress should refamiliarize itself with Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane, who was handed a team in 2002 with the third-lowest payroll in the MLB, one-third as much as the Yankees. … Beane took a more efficient, data-driven approach and squeezed the most out of every dollar. He took his band of misfits to a 103-59 season and a postseason berth — the same number of wins as the well-funded Yankees.”
Roberts is promising Heritage budget experts will spend the month looking for smart ways to target the Pentagon’s inefficiencies, including “wokeness and waste,” “inefficient and outdated weapons systems,” and a new round of base closures.
‘PUT AWAY ITS KID GLOVES’: HERITAGE FOUNDATION PRESIDENT URGES DEFENSE CUTS
CBO: HYPERSONIC BANG MAY NOT BE WORTH THE EXTRA BUCKS: In the same way Beane used sabermetrics to identify undervalued baseball players, the Congressional Budget Office has done a data analysis on the relative cost-benefit ratio of older missile systems compared to newer hypersonic weapons.
You can see the Venn diagram here, but the bottom line is that while hypersonic weapons are better than ballistic missiles at penetrating long-range missile defenses, the fact is no U.S. adversaries have such defenses.
“Against shorter-range defenses, it is unclear whether hypersonic missiles would have an advantage over ballistic missiles with maneuverable warheads,” the report concluded. “Given their cost, hypersonic weapons would provide a niche capability, mainly useful to address threats that were both well-defended and extremely time-sensitive.”
“If time was not a concern, much cheaper cruise missiles could be used. If targets were time-sensitive but were not protected by defenses that effectively intercept incoming ballistic missiles in the middle of their flight, less costly ballistic missiles with maneuverable warheads could be used.”
In other words, much like high-priced superstar baseball players are not always as cost-effective as less heralded players, hypersonic weapons may not be the most cost-effective option in war. Then again, in war, the object is not to win by a little but by a lot, and overkill is not necessarily considered a bad thing.
DOD’S ‘WOKE ADMINISTRATOR’ DRAWS MORE GOP IRE: Republicans in Congress are frustrated with what they see as the Pentagon’s non-response to their complaints that Kelisa Wing, the chief diversity, equity, and inclusion officer in the Department of Defense Education Activity, has displayed racial animus against white people.
The Pentagon began a “30-day review” last September, but to date, Republicans say they have received no word on the result of the inquiry. “It is outrageous that a DOD official whose job it is to oversee ‘worldwide K-12 education programs for the children of DOD personnel,’ has engaged in racially disparaging comments with clear inflammatory language on her social media and in other writings,” wrote House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL) and Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) in a letter to Austin.
Rogers and Banks cited a number of Twitter posts by Wing, including identifying herself as a “woke administrator,” decrying “white nonsense,” and expressing her displeasure with white people, saying, “I am exhausted by 99% of the white men in education and 95% of the white women.”
“Her comments do not represent the American ideal to treat everyone with respect. In fact, they call into question the current Administration’s commitment to ensuring that an involuntary trait of birth, like skin color, is an irrelevant factor in one’s ability to access opportunity and advancement,” wrote Rogers and Banks. “Leftist woke politics have no place in our military’s mission to protect all Americans.”
PENTAGON CONDUCTING 30-DAY REVIEW OF DIVERSITY CHIEF ACCUSED OF ANTI-WHITE POSTS
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden to speak with Zelensky after saying US won’t give Ukraine fighter jets
Washington Examiner: National Security Council mum on Biden’s ‘no’ to Ukraine’s request for F-16s
Washington Examiner: ‘Put away its kid gloves’: Heritage Foundation president urges defense cuts
Washington Examiner: Russia blocks US arms control inspectors in blow to milestone treaty, State Department says
Washington Examiner: Israel launches drone strike on Iranian facility: Report
Washington Examiner: Blinken dismisses Israeli minister’s rebuke about democracy ‘lecture’
Washington Examiner: Victoria Spartz rejoins fight to strip Ilhan Omar from Foreign Affairs Committee
Washington Examiner: US, South Korean defense ministers pledge military training amid threat from North Korea
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump’s deluded endorsement of Putin over the US intelligence community
AP: US accuses Russia of endangering nuclear arms control treaty
AP: War’s longest battle exacts high price in ‘heart of Ukraine’
New York Times: Seeing a Prize, Russia Inundates a Ukraine City With Troops
Washington Post: After NATO Chief’s Urging, Seoul Might Reconsider Sending Arms To Kyiv
AP: Croatia’s president criticizes tank deliveries to Ukraine
New York Times: Russia Sidesteps Western Punishments, With Help From Friends
Australian Broadcasting Company: Visiting U.S. Marine Corps Chief Warns ‘Everything In The Cupboard’ Needed To Prevent War With China
AP: Austin In Philippines To Discuss Larger U.S. Military Presence
CNN: U.S. Military Seeks To Expand Access To Bases In Philippines With Eye Toward China
Bloomberg: US Warships’ Time at Sea Dwindles on Breakdowns as China Challenge Rises
Defense News: Workforce Woes Are Top ‘Strategic Challenge’ For Navy, Admiral Says
Washington Post: Biden’s ‘No’ On F-16 Jets For Ukraine Is Met With Skepticism At Pentagon
19fortyfive.com: How the F-16 Fighter Could Transform the Ukraine War
19fortyfive.com: Russia Is Getting a New Warship Armed with Hypersonic Missiles
19fortyfive.com: Russia Thinks New Prison Soldiers Will Be ‘Cannibals’ in Ukraine
New York Times: Air Force Says Proposed Chinese-Owned Mill in North Dakota Is ‘Significant Threat’
Defense One: Over-Classification Undermines Democracy, US Intelligence Director Says
Stars and Stripes: Biden Orders Study Of Military Pay And Benefits To Ensure Troops Are Properly Compensated
Defense News: General Atomics’ Air-Launched ‘Eaglet’ Gets Its Wings
Breaking Defense: New DOD Guidance Will Prioritize Joint Cloud, Ensure ‘Cloud Rationalization’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Austin: US-South Korea Military Exercises Will Ramp Up, Including Bomber and Fighter Missions
Air & Space Forces Magazine: ‘Backdoor’ to Attack Satellites: CSO Sees Cyber Risks in Space Force Ground Systems
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-35s Deploy to Greenland for First Time, Operate from Thule
The War Zone: New Shots Of Stealthy XQ-58A Valkyrie Highlight Its Runway Independence
Washington Post: Opinion: Boris Johnson: Putin has paved the way for Ukrainian membership in NATO
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1
9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book discussion: No Limits: The Inside Story of China’s War with the West, with author Andrew Small. Register at [email protected]
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative discussion: “Responding to the Ukrainian Refugee Plight: The EU and US Perspectives,” with Rep. Gerald Connolly (D-VA), president emeritus of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration Julieta Valls Noyes; Michael Koehler, acting director-general for European civil protection and humanitarian aid operations at the European Commission; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/responding-ukrainian-refugee-plight
10:45 a.m. — Defense Innovation Board meeting, chaired by Michael Bloomberg. Public portion livestreamed on defense.gov
11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Sustaining support to Ukraine,” with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/conversation-with-boris-johnson
1 p.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: “Ukraine, China, and the International World Order,” with former Defense Secretary Robert Gates https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
4 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “Putin’s War or Russia’s War?” with Leonid Volkov, chief of staff for Alexei Navalny; and Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://calendar.gwu.edu/putins-war-or-russias-war
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 2
110:30 a.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. discussion: “The Foreign Policy of Technology.” with U.S. Ambassador for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick; David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Karen Kornbluh, director and senior fellow at the GMFUS’s Digital Innovation and Democracy Initiative and former deputy chief of staff at the Treasury Department https://www.gmfus.org/event/foreign-policy-technology-ambassador-nate-fick
1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “One Year On: Germany’s Foreign Policy Shift and the War in Ukraine,” with German Ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Steven Sokol, president of the American Council on Germany; Dan Baer, director of the CEIP Europe Program; and Sophia Besch, fellow at CEIP’s Europe Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/02/one-year-on-germany-s-foreign-policy-shift
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3
12 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and Efforts to Reduce Risk and Build Public Trust in Artificial Intelligence,” with Elham Tabassi, chief of staff of the NIST Information Technology Laboratory https://calendar.gwu.edu/nist-and-efforts-reduce-risk-and-build-public-trust-ai
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event featuring Gen. James Rainey, commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-rainey
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13
TBA Brussels, Belgium — Press Conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a two-day meeting of defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Stimson Center virtual and in-person discussion: “The End of History? Global Implications of the War in Ukraine” https://www.stimson.org/event/the-end-of-history
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14
TBA Brussels, Belgium — Meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group followed by the beginning of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 17
TBA Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference 2023 begins, running through Sunday, Feb. 19 https://securityconference.org
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Congress needs to take a Moneyball approach to our national defense. … Instead of engaging in a debate over topline spending numbers and throwing money at old programs and systems, Congress should insist that every dollar is used to advance military lethality and readiness while saving taxpayers as much as possible.”
Kevin Roberts, president, Heritage Foundation, in an essay advocating smart cuts to the defense budget
