Tillerson prepares for big Russia test this week

As many as 100 Syrian civilians died when a poison gas bomb was dropped in Idlib province April 4, and the victims exhibited symptoms consistent with deadly sarin nerve agent.

On Friday, when two senior U.S. military officials provided a background briefing for Pentagon reporters on the U.S. cruise missile strike on Syria’s Shayrat airfield, one official strongly hinted that Russia might have been complicit in the planning of the chemical attack that drew the U.S. military response. But Tillerson said, for now, that suspicion remains unconfirmed. “To our knowledge, we do not have any information that suggests that Russia was a part of the military attack undertaken using the chemical weapons,” Tillerson said on “Face the Nation.” Still, Tillerson said it’s hard to believe Russia didn’t know about Assad’s remaining stockpile of banned weapons. “Regardless of whether Russia was complicit here or whether they were simply incompetent or whether they got outwitted by the Bashar al-Assad regime, you would have to ask the Russians that question,” he said.

ASSAD MUST GO: Just a week after suggesting leaving Assad in power may just be an unpleasant political reality, Trump administration officials are once again talking about the need for the Syrian dictator to go. “There’s not any sort of option where a political solution is going to happen with Assad at the head of the regime,” said Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley on CNN. “Regime change is something that we think is going to happen, because all of the parties are going to see that Assad is not the leader that needs to be taking place for Syria.” But on CBS, Tillerson reiterated that the top priority is defeating ISIS. “Once the ISIS threat has been reduced or eliminated, I think we can turn our attention directly to stabilizing the situation in Syria,” he said.

NOT TALKING ABOUT NOT TALKING: In the immediate aftermath of the Thursday night/Friday morning cruise missile attack, the Russian Foreign Ministry put out an indignant statement announcing the suspension of the memorandum of understanding that set of a deconfliction channel between Russian and U.S. forces operating in Syria. But U.S commanders insisted the line was still operating. On Saturday, a spokesman for Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said the U.S. would have no comment on whether the Russians were still answering the phone. And yesterday, Tillerson indicated Moscow had not followed through on its threat. “As far as I know, the line of communication continues to be open,” Tillerson said. “And the battlefield commanders are able to communicate with one another.” Without the deconfliction channel the Russians might not have gotten advance word of the missile strikes on Shayrat, where they are also operating.

WHAT THE STRIKE DID: The fact that Syrian aircraft were able to resume some limited flight operations a day after Shayrat was hit by 59 cruise missiles raised question about whether the U.S. action was effective. U.S. officials insisted the point was to send a clear message that the use of chemical weapons would not be tolerated, while at the same time avoiding needless deaths and not putting any U.S. forces at risk.

WHAT THE STRIKE DID NOT DO: The strike was never intended to completely shut down operations at the airfield, or to ground Assad’s air force. It also did little to protect Syrians from being killed by Assad’s regime, as Sen. John McCain pointed out on CBS. “A very small percentage of the people who have been slaughtered in Syria have been slaughtered by chemical weapons. It has been done by barrel bombs and indiscriminate killing and all the other war crimes that have been committed.” McCain said he thought the U.S. strike should have cratered the runways at the airfield, and possibly targeted all six airfields where Assad’s warplanes conduct operations. That, he argued, should not wait for the defeat of ISIS. “I believe that the United States of America can address both at the same time. We can walk and chew gum.”

69 HOURS: You can read my behind-the-scenes account of the 69 hours between the Syrian chemical attack to the U.S. military response here. It shows how fast the Pentagon was able to provide the president with a range of options, and then execute the mission within hours of his decision.

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

WHAT’S NEXT? The Trump administration is preparing to deliver Congress an “overall strategy” for dealing with Syria in the coming days, according to Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman McCain and other top Republicans, Susan Ferrechio writes. “They are working on an overall strategy and we expect to hear that completed strategy very soon,” McCain said Friday after a military briefing on the missile strike.

Lawmakers received a private briefing in the Capitol Friday from Dunford. Lawmakers left calling for more forward-looking information from the Trump administration and were promised details of a broader plan for Syria as well as legal justification for the Thursday strikes.

GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY: A U.S. Navy carrier strike group sailed toward the Korean Peninsula late Saturday evening in a move that was widely interpreted as a warning to Pyongyang, just days after President Trump discussed the need to bring North Korea to heel with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group was not scheduled to be in the Western Pacific but sailed there overnight instead of embarking on a series of planned port visits in Australia, the Navy said Saturday evening. The carrier, along with the destroyers USS Wayne E. Meyer, USS Michael Murphy, and the cruiser USS Lake Champlain, “will operate in the Western Pacific rather than executing previously planned port visits to Australia,” according to a statement from the U.S. Navy’s 3rd Fleet.

OPTIONS FOR KOREA: The dispatch of the carrier is just sign of things to come, said national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster in his first interview since taking the White House post. “It’s prudent to do it, isn’t it? I mean, North Korea has been engaged in a pattern of provocative behavior,” McMaster said on Fox News Sunday. “This is a rogue regime that is now a nuclear-capable regime, and President Xi and President Trump agreed that that is unacceptable, that what must happen is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” McMaster said. “And so, the president has asked to be prepared to give him a full range of options to remove that threat to the American people and to our allies and partners in the region.”

PETRAEUS ON KOREA: Retired general and former CIA director David Petraeus was on CNN Sunday weighing what message the U.S. strikes in Syria sends. “I don’t know that they’re going to deter Kim Jong Un,” Petraeus said. “I think this is an important message probably to China, not just North Korea, because this president faces a strategic reality that is different than any of his predecessors — the prospect that a madman could have a nuclear device that could actually hit an American city within a few years.” But Petraeus expressed skepticism there are any good military options to confront Pyongyang. “Every military possibility is relatively unattractive. That’s short-handed for ugly,” he said. “And the “then whats” are very, very difficult as well.” The fear is that any attack on the North could spark a second Korean War, with heavy casualties on both sides.

REPUBLICAN REASSURANCE INITIATIVE: Top Republicans on Friday said Trump’s decision to punish Syria was a reassuring sign that he had abandoned isolationism and was through playing footsie with Russia, David M. Drucker writes. Republicans have hoped that Trump’s foreign policy might evolve from the “America first” approach that suggested he wasn’t interested in being a global leader. And, they have strongly urged the president to stop coddling Putin.

“This action reminded me of [former President] George W. Bush,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “It was well-planned, well-executed — sent multiple messages.”

HOW IT AFFECTS THE CR: Trump’s military options for any new strikes on Assad in Syria could be limited if Congress punts on a defense budget this month, members of the Senate Armed Services Committee said. As the White House weighs how to proceed in Syria, lawmakers face an April 28 deadline and have just days — following a two-week recess — to pass legislation funding the military through September.

“I think a [continuing resolution] would significantly constrain our military options” against Assad, said Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services

NEW ARMY NOMINEE NAMED: Trump has selected Tennessee state Sen. Mark Green for Army secretary after his initial pick backed out two months ago, the White House announced Friday evening. “Mark will provide strong civilian leadership, improve military readiness and support our service members, civilians, and their families,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said in a statement. The 52-year-old physician created AlignMD, an emergency room management firm. He joined the state Senate in early 2013 and also serves as chaplain of the Tennessee Senate GOP Caucus. As an Army physician, Green was part of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, which took him on three tours to the Middle East. Trump had nominated businessman Vincent Viola for the post, but Viola backed out over business concerns.

SOLDIER KILLED IN AFGHANISTAN: A U.S. Special Forces soldier was killed in Afghanistan on Saturday while fighting the Islamic State-Khorasan group in Nangarhar province, according to Navy Capt. Bill Salvin, spokesman for U.S. Forces-Afghanistan. “The soldier was mortally wounded late Saturday,” Salvin said in a message posted on the official Twitter account of Operation Resolute Support. The name of the soldier will be released today.

There are still some 8,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. More than 1,800 have died over the course of the 16 year war. This is the first combat death there in 2017.

MCFARLAND OUT OF THE NSC: K.T. McFarland, Trump’s former deputy national security adviser, has been reassigned from her position in the White House to become ambassador to Singapore.

McFarland, a former Fox News analyst, was brought into the administration by Mike Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser. His replacement, McMaster, has sought to reshape the National Security Council since joining the White House team. This week, the White House suggested it was McMaster who decided chief strategist Steve Bannon should no longer sit on the the NSC principals committee.

“The narrative that H.R. is kicking her out is not true,” a White House official told the Washington Examiner. “He’s happy for her. The administration thinks she would be an asset overseas, particularly in Singapore, which is a key U.S. ally.”

HONORING ABU IVANKA AL AMRIKI: This item comes from CNN Chief International Correspondent Clarissa Ward, by way of her Facebook page. Some Syrians who support the opposition have been changing their social media avatars to a picture of President Trump, with Arabic script underneath that says “we love you,” which Ward says is a take-off on an old propaganda campaign for Assad. “It’s definitely a little tongue in cheek but I still never thought I would see the day when Syrians would affectionately refer to Donald Trump as ‘Abu Ivanka al Amriki,’” writes Ward on Facebook. “It literally means ‘Father of Ivanka the American,’ but it’s in the style of the noms de guerre that Syrian fighters use.”

COOL CARRIER VIDEO: The Navy has released aerial video of the newest American supercarrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, as it chugs out to to sea on its own power for the first time. The first-of-class ship is the first new U.S. aircraft carrier design in 40 years. The first thing you notice is the island is farther astern, which provides a lot more maneuvering room for planes on the flight decks. The future CVN 78 will spend several days conducting builder’s sea trials, a comprehensive test of many of the ship’s key systems and technologies.

OBJECTION NOTED: The Pentagon held a briefing Friday in which two senior military officials gave a very detailed account of the U.S. intelligence about Syrian chemical attack, and the U.S cruise missile response. The briefing, jam-packed with reporters, got off to a contentious start as several members of the Pentagon press corps objected to ground rules under which the briefers could not be identified by name. “The president himself has talked about his opposition to background briefings,” said AP’s Lolita Baldor. “Since this is an official briefing the day after a military operation, it’s really important that we get people on the record.” Reporters from the New York Times and CNN also objected, to no avail.

Pentagon public affairs officials were visibly frustrated by the backlash, given how hard it is to convince senior officials who don’t interact with the media on a regular basis to face the press. At one point one public affairs officer threatened to cancel the briefing. The journalists’ objections were duly noted, but the request to put the briefing on the record was denied. The Pentagon also did not post a transcript of the briefing on its website, which is the usual practice for background briefings.

THE RUNDOWN

Washington Post: With a deadline looming, nobody is threatening to shut down the government

Associated Press: North Korea says Syria airstrikes prove its nukes justified

CNN: Haley on Russia and Iran: ‘I don’t think anything is off the table’

Reuters: Palm Sunday bombings of Egyptian Coptic churches kill 44

New York Times: Tillerson, on eve of trip, takes a hard line with Russia

Wall Street Journal: Stockholm attack puts focus on terrorists from Central Asia

USA Today: McMaster: U.S. wants to eliminate ‘murderous regime’ in Syria

Reuters: Russian naval activity in Europe exceeds Cold War levels: U.S. admiral

Popular Mechanics: Putin Could Have Tried to Shoot Down Trump’s Missiles. Why Didn’t He?

New York Times: American soldier is killed in Afghanistan

Defense One: Easy there, Blob. With Obama, we faced a different Syria

Calendar

MONDAY | APRIL 10

12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. A Conversation with Sen. Chris Murphy about U.S. security amid budget cuts. cfr.org

1 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Trump, Xi, and US-China economic relations after the Mar-a-Lago meeting. stimson.org

TUESDAY | APRIL 11

8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 700. The quarterly procurement division meeting with speakers and panelists on the defense industrial base, challenges to acquisition and procurement. ndia.org

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A genealogy of Russophobia in America. wilsoncenter.org

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 12

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway. A Discussion with Lt. Gen. Mark Nowland, deputy chief of staff for operations at the Air Force, about the service and the future force. mitchellaerospacepower.org

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book launch for Al-Qaeda’s Revenge: The 2004 Madrid Train Bombings. wilsoncenter.org

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A look at what’s next for Afghanistan-Pakistan relations with Daud Khattak, senior editor at Radio Free Europe, Omar Samad, the former Afghan ambassador to France, and Joshua White, associate professor of practice and fellow at Johns Hopkins University. wilsoncenter.org

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Gen. David Goldfein, Air Force chief of staff, talks about rebuilding his service branch. heritage.org

12 p.m. 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 700. David Hoffman, deputy general counsel of the Defense Contract Audit Agency, speaks at a quarterly procurement division meeting. ndia.org

6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Perspectives on Russia from Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Alexander R. Vershbow, distinguished fellow with the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, and Rita Hauser, president of the Hauser Foundation. cfr.org

THURSDAY | APRIL 13

7:30 a.m. 1401 Lee Highway. Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, speaks at an association breakfast. afa.org

8:30 a.m. 1777 F St. NW. A series of morning panels on the origins of modern Russia in the collapse of the Soviet Union, current trends in the country today and the future of foreign policy toward Moscow. cfr.org

12:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor. Former Marine Corps Commandant Gen. James Conway and a panel discuss advanced energy innovation and national security. atlanticcouncil.org

3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book launch for Konrad Wolf’s But I Saw It Myself, This is the War: War Diary and Letters, 1942-1945. wilsoncenter.org