Weary of war, Trump determined to bring U.S. troops home

WE’RE GETTING OUT: Against the advice of his national security team and over the objections of many of his own party in Congress, President Trump made it abundantly clear in his Super Bowl Sunday interview with CBS that he’s determined to pull U.S troops out of Syria, Afghanistan and perhaps elsewhere.

“I think everybody’s tired. We ought to get out of these endless wars and bring our folks back home,” Trump told CBS’ Margaret Brennan in a segment of the interview that aired on “Face the Nation” yesterday morning. “We’re the policemen of the world. And we don’t have to be.”

Trump bristled at the suggestion of his critics that his impatience was prompting a precipitous pullout. “Precipitously?” Trump scoffed. “We’ve been there for 19 years. [17 years, 4 months actually] I want to fight, I want to win, and we want to bring our great troops back home.”

WE’RE STAYING: Besides, Trump insists, what he’s ordering is not a wholesale abandonment of the region, but a strategic repositioning, what in the medical profession is known as “watchful waiting.”

“I’m not leaving. We have a base in Iraq. And the base is a fantastic edifice. I mean, I was there recently, and I couldn’t believe the money that was spent on these massive runways and these, every — I have rarely seen anything like it,” Trump said. In that, Trump revealed some of the 2,000 troops in Syria won’t be coming home. Instead, they’ll be shifted to the al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, where they will be ready to strike ISIS, and keep an eye on Iran’s actions in Syria.

“We have an unbelievable and expensive military base built in Iraq. It’s perfectly situated for looking at all over different parts of the troubled Middle East,” Trump said while pushing back on the suggestion U.S. forces might attack Iranian militia in Syria. “I want to be able to watch Iran. All I want to do is be able to watch.”

Trump added, “Rather than pulling up — and this is what a lot of people don’t understand — we’re going to keep watching, and we’re going to keep seeing. And you know what we’ll do? We’ll come back if we have to. We have very fast airplanes. We have very good cargo planes. We can come back very quickly.”

ISIS ‘99 PERCENT’ DEFEATED: Despite the Pentagon’s announcement that the U.S. troop withdrawal from Syria has been underway for weeks, so far there’s no sign any troops have actually left. Instead, they seem to be racing the clock trying to finish off the last remnants of ISIS fighters in an area of Syria known as the Middle Euphrates River Valley.

“We will be announcing in the not-too-distant future 100 percent of the caliphate, which is the area, the land, the area,” will be liberated. “We’re at 99 percent right now. We’ll be at 100,” Trump said, again explaining that the U.S. troops in Syria will be repositioning next door. “As we gain the remainder, the final remainder of the caliphate of the area, they’ll be going to our base in Iraq, and ultimately some will be coming home.”

BLOOD AND TREASURE: Trump says America’s “endless wars” have cost thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars. “We’re spending more money than anybody’s ever spent in history, by a lot,” he said. “We spent, over the last five years, close to $50 billion a year in Afghanistan. That’s more than most countries spend for everything, including education, medical, and everything else, other than a few countries.”

But the president indicated he is haunted by the human costs of the war. “I go to Walter Reed Hospital. I see what happens to people. I see with no legs and no arms. And I have seen also what happens to them up here, because they’re in this situation, and they come back, and they are totally different people, where the wives and the fathers and the mothers say, ‘What has happened to my son? What has happened in some cases to my daughter?’”

BIGGEST MISTAKE EVER: Trump says the U.S. decision to lead an invasion of Iraq in 2003 in the mistaken believed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction was “one of the greatest mistakes our country has ever made.”

Trump said, “President Bush had intel people that said Saddam Hussein, in Iraq, had nuclear weapons, had all sorts of weapons of mass destruction. Guess what? Those intel people didn’t know what the hell they were doing, and they got us tied up in a war that we should have never been in. And we’ve spent $7 trillion in the Middle East. And we have lost lives.”

STILL MISTRUSTS HIS INTEL TEAM: Despite declaring last week that the dismissal of his intelligence chiefs as naive and passive was based on a misunderstanding and misreporting on their congressional testimony, Trump made clear he still harbors a deep distrust of the Intelligence Community.

“They said they were mischaracterized. Maybe they were, maybe they weren’t. I don’t really know,” Trump said. “I can tell you this. I want them to have their own opinion, and I want them to give me their opinion.”

“I tell people, ‘You can testify any way you want.’ I’m not going to stop them from testifying,” Trump said. He called Iran the “Number One terrorist nation in the world.” Trump added, “So when my intelligence people tell me how wonderful Iran is, if you don’t mind, I’m going to just go by my own counsel.”

THE ETERNAL OPTIMISM OF THE HUMAN MIND: One the best essays I’ve read lately, on the way our cognitive biases can fool even really smart people into backing endless, unwinnable wars, was published last week in War on the Rocks, and written by Charles Vandepeer, a former intelligence officer with the Royal Australian Air Force.

If you read only one other thing today, make time for this — “Self-Deception and the ‘Conspiracy of Optimism.’

“Conspiracies of optimism are not necessarily deliberate. Instead, they reflect a military ‘can do’ mentality and an ethos of optimism ingrained in military culture. The ability to move beyond difficulties is critical to military success, but presents problems when such a perspective becomes divorced from reality,” Vandepeer writes. “Positive illusions of military capabilities are easier to maintain and reinforce in a culture that promotes good news. Encouraging and accepting only positive internal feedback and analysis might be a comfortable short-term strategy, but risks surprise on the battlefield, where an adversary will welcome the opportunity to deliver a catastrophic and undeniable reality check.”

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TOMORROW — THE STATE OF THE UNION: It will be quite the scene in the House chamber tomorrow night when President Trump delivers his shutdown-delayed State of the Union address. His political nemesis, Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi D-Calif., will sit over his left shoulder in full camera view.

In his CBS interview, Trump called Pelosi “very rigid” and “very bad for our country.” He again refused to rule out another shutdown, while at the same time indicating he’s leaning toward an emergency declaration Feb. 15 to fund his border wall.

“We have now set the table beautifully because everybody knows what’s going on because of the shutdown. People that didn’t have any idea, they didn’t have a clue as to what was happening, they now know exactly what’s happening.”

DON’T DO IT: Senate Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., reportedly has counseled Trump in private against declaring a national emergency to build his border wall. The Washington Post cites “two Republicans with knowledge of the exchange,” as saying McConnell cautioned Trump that a declaration “could trigger political blowback and divide the GOP.”

McConnell reportedly warned Trump that Congress might pass a resolution of disapproval, which could put Trump in the uncomfortable position of issuing his first veto ever, in the face of opposition from his own party.

TROUBLE IN THE RANKS: The president is already facing substantial push-back from Republicans for his Syria and Afghanistan withdrawal plans. Appearing on “Fox News Sunday,” Sen. Ron Johnson R-Wis., chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, said it would be “unconscionable,” to leave Syria, and abandon the Syrian Kurds, our most effective allies in battling ISIS.

“I can’t tell you how many times I came on shows like this after President Obama decided to bug out of Iraq precipitously and so that ISIS was able to rise from the thoroughly-defeated ashes of al Qaeda in Iraq. And I don’t want to be making the same statement six months from now that we bug out of Syria,” Johnson told host Chris Wallace.

“I think it would just be tragic if we bugged out, left the Kurds, who, by and large, have done the fighting and have defeated the ISIS caliphate, the territorial caliphate in ISIS, if we just abandon them to the mercies — and you know, I use that term loosely — of Russia and Iran and possibly Turkey.”

Johnson was one of 43 Senate Republicans who voted for a measure spearheaded by Majority Leader McConnell that rebuked the Trump’s Syria policy in a bipartisan vote.

“I’m not on the ground there. I don’t know all the military assets. But it’s a very bad sign when [Defense] Secretary [Jim] Mattis resigns, Brett McGurk, our envoy there for the defeat of ISIS, also resigns because they simply can’t carry out this policy,” Johnson said. “These are people that are intimately knowledgeable of the conditions of the ground, of our allies there, and they simply couldn’t in good conscience stay in office.”

HE RESIGNED BECAUSE I FIRED HIM: Trump yesterday again insisted he fired Mattis before he resigned, not after. “I wasn’t happy with his service. And I told him, ‘Give me a letter,’” Trump told CBS. “He resigned because I asked him to resign. He resigned because I was very nice to him.”

“I gave him big budgets, and he didn’t do well in Afghanistan. I was not happy with the job he was doing in Afghanistan.” And Trump said the same thing with Syria, where Mattis opposed the plan to pull out before the defeat of ISIS was complete and local security forces had been fully trained and equipped.

“If you look at Syria, what’s happened in Syria in the last few weeks, you would see that things are going down that were not going down, that things are happening that are very good,” Trump said. “So, I was not happy with him, but I wish him well.”

MORE TROOPS TO SW BORDER: The Pentagon announced yesterday that in response to a request from the Department of Homeland Security last month, it will be dispatching an additional 3,750 additional active duty U.S. troops to the U.S.-Mexico border.

The additional support to Customs and Border Patrol was approved by Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan Jan. 11. “That support includes a mobile surveillance capability through the end of September 2019, as well as the emplacement of approximately 150 miles of concertina wire between ports of entry,” said a Pentagon statement, noting, “This will raise the total Active Duty forces supporting CBP at the border to approximately 4,350.”

The deployment is set to last three months, but the Pentagon said it will “continue to evaluate the force composition required to meet the mission to protect and secure the southern border.”

CAPITOL HILL GEARS UP: With the 116th Congress now in full swing, the hearing schedule is filling up again.

Tomorrow U.S. Central Commander Army Gen. Joseph Votel appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee. (9:30 am 216 Hart). Votel’s in overall charge of the missions in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen, so he can expect a lot of questions that could put him at odds with his president and commander in chief.

Wednesday at 10:15 a.m. DNI Dan Coats and DIA Director Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley get a chance to reprise their testimony on worldwide threats, (216 Hart). It will be an opportunity to perhaps clear up the president’s confusion about whether they were misquoted in last week’s testimony.

Thursday it’s Marine Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, commander, of U.S. Africa Command in the SASC hot seat, along with Adm. Craig Faller, commander, U.S. Southern Command. Expect Waldhauser, who oversees Libya, Niger, and Somalia, to get the most pointed questions. (10:15 G50 Dirksen).

SOMALIA WATCH: Friday’s U.S. airstrike in Somalia, the tenth of the year, reportedly killed 13 more al-Shabaab militants according to a release from the U.S. Africa Command. So far this year, AFRICOM assess it has killed 116 al-Shabaab fighters, 103 in the month of January.

That compares to only six reported killed in airstrikes in January 2018.

INF BLOWBACK: House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., and Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., accused President Trump of being “too soft on Russia” and playing into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hands following the administration’s announcement it would pull out of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

“By withdrawing from the INF Treaty instead of making an honest, good-faith effort to collectively punish Russia for its treaty violations and bring it back into compliance, we are playing into President Putin’s hands,” Smith said in a statement. Smith also argued that NATO allies were being “ignored” by pulling out of the treaty, despite the fact that NATO allies issued a statement voicing their total support for the Trump administration’s decision.

PUTIN’S PLEDGE: Upon receiving the official notice from the United States of its intention to withdraw from the 1987 treaty, Putin said Russia would follow suit.

“We will respond quid pro quo,” Putin said Friday. “Our American partners have announced they were suspending their participation in the treaty, and we will do the same. They have announced they will conduct research and development, and we will act accordingly.”

While Putin has ordered the development of new land-based intermediate-range weapons, he also said Russia won’t deploy them in the European part of the country or elsewhere unless the U.S. does so.

BOLTON TALKS VENEZUELA: National Security Adviser John Bolton said there are no imminent plans for a military intervention in Venezuela, but stressed that all options were fair game, in a radio interview Friday with Hugh Hewitt.

Bolton was pressed on whether military intervention by the U.S., Brazil, Colombia, or a mix of the countries was imminent, and he responded, “No, the president said all options are on the table.”

Bolton emphasized that the objective was a peaceful transition of power, and didn’t share any more information after being caught on camera last week holding a notepad with “5,000 troops to Colombia” scrawled on it. “You know, when we say all options are on the table, we want to keep it at that level,” Bolton said. “And going beyond that, I think, would be imprudent, as George H.W. Bush would say.”

DHS DEATHS: Three employees with the Department of Homeland Security died while working over the past three days — unusual in such a short period of time, even for such a large federal agency.

The three DHS personnel who died while on the job include Michel Kozloski of the Coast Guard, Donna Doss of Border Patrol, and an unnamed male officer from the Transportation Security Administration.

THE RUNDOWN

Wall Street Journal: After Mattis, Acting Defense Chief Shanahan Is Trying Out for Permanent Role

Politico: Leaner Space Force woos skeptics in Congress

AP: Russia to pull plug on nuclear arms pact after US does same

Breaking Defense: Navy Rethinks 355-Ship Fleet: CNO Richardson

The New York Times: Is This the Right Way to End a War?

Washington Post: While E.U. tries to bypass U.S. sanctions on Iran, Trump administration amps up pressure

Task and Purpose: ‘Most Modern Submarine In The World’ — Meet The New USS South Dakota

Breaking Defense: Pentagon Studies Post-INF Weapons, Shooting Down Hypersonics

Stars and Stripes: ‘The American dream is real’: Once a desperate refugee, now a US Army general

Military Times: Among troops, vaping is now more popular than cigarettes

Task and Purpose:  An Unusually High Numbers Of Patriots Players Come From Military And Law Enforcement Families

Calendar

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 5

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing: United States Central Command. www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 226. Senate Judiciary Committee Nominations Hearing. www.judiciary.senate.gov

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Book Launch: On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War.” www.wilsoncenter.org

10 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. http://www.ndia.org

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. “The Kremlin and Its Ideological Toolbox.” www.wilsoncenter.org

12 p.m. 1800 M Street N.W., Suite 800. By invitation only — “Preparing for a cyber-enabled economic warfare attack.” www.fdd.org

2:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Rep. Eliot Engel on the Foreign Policy Priorities of the New Democratic Majority.” carnegieendowment.org

3 p.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard. Family Readiness Initiatives Forum – Key Updates From Army Senior Leaders. www.ausa.org

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 6

7 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. http://www.ndia.org

9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “Maintaining Maritime Superiority: Discussion With the Chief of Naval Operations.” www.atlanticcouncil.org

9:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400. “The 2019 U.S. Missile Defense Review: A Conversation with Under Secretary John C. Rood.” www.hudson.org

10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “A conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on the Senate’s role in foreign policy.” www.aei.org

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee hearing: Evaluation of the Department of Defense’s Counterterrorism Approach. armedservices.house.gov  

10 a.m. Dirksen 342. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: Business Meeting. www.hsgac.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: U.S. Policy in the Arabian Peninsula. foreignaffairs.house.gov  

10:15 a.m. Hart 216. Senate Armed Services Committee: Worldwide Threats. www.armed-services.senate.gov

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Russia’s Policy in Afghanistan.” www.csis.org

4:30 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Peace-Building on the Korean Peninsula: Does Multilateralism Matter?” www.sais-jhu.edu

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 7

8 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. http://www.ndia.org

10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. “Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani on the Prospects for Peace.” www.usip.org

10:15 a.m. Dirksen G50. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: United States Africa Command and United States Southern Command. www.armed-services.senate.gov

11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street, NW. “Regaining the High Ground at Sea: Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition” https://csbaonline.org

12 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. U.S.-Japan Business Diplomacy. www.sais-jhu.edu

12 p.m. 1800 M Street, NW, Suite 800. By invitation only — Center on Military and Political Power conversation on the implications of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. https://www.fdd.org/

2 p.m. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations: Business Meeting. www.foreign.senate.gov

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 11

3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Is Bigger Better? Concentration, Competition, and Defense Contracting Outcomes.” www.csis.org

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 12

9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “Iran’s Revolution Turns Forty.” www.atlanticcouncil.org

6 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The European Strategic Landscape after the INF Treaty.” www.sais-jhu.edu

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 13

2:30 p.m. Dirksen G50. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: Current Condition of the Military Housing Privatization Initiative. www.armed-services.senate.gov  

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 21

11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Gullible Superpower: U.S. Support for Bogus Foreign Democratic Movements.” www.cato.org

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 28

8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2020 Budget and Policy Forum.” www.csis.org

SUNDAY | MARCH 3

10:30 a.m. Breakfast discussion with rocket scientist behind Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, Dr. Ari Sacher. 8900 Little River Turnpike, Fairfax. www.jnf.org

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I think everybody’s tired. We ought to get out of these endless wars and bring our folks back home.”
President Trump, in an interview with the CBS program, “Face the Nation.”

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