FINAL PUSH IN IRAQ: This morning Iraqi forces are on the move against the last remaining pockets of Islamic State control in the western part of the country near the Syrian border. In a statement from Baghdad, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said ISIS members will have “to choose between death and surrender,” in announcing the offensive operations in the region of al-Qaim and Rawa.
ISIS TRAPPED: In a news conference following a counter-terrorism summit attended by 75 nations, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said ISIS is fighting in an ever-shrinking battlefield that has left it no way out, no way to win, no way to get reinforcements. “Foreign-fighter flows into Syria have nearly stopped. There was 40,000 just a few years ago. This flow has nearly stopped,” Dunford said. “Also, foreign fighters are unable to get out of Syria, and we believe we’ve cut their revenue down to the lowest level ever, and their outside sources of funding are now entirely severed.”
Dunford was joined late Tuesday by Brett McGurk, the president’s special envoy to the counter-ISIS coalition, who said the loss of Raqqa has basically shut down the group’s operations. “Just look at ISIS’ own propaganda. About a year ago they started to stop saying come to Syria. At the time they said go to Libya. Then they stopped saying go to Libya; they said go to the Philippines. Now they can’t go to the Philippines. So they’re running out of places to go.”
TRUMPETING SUCCESS: “I have to say, we are decimating ISIS in the Middle East,” President Trump said in his impromptu press conference yesterday on the White House south lawn. Trump repeated his claim to have done more to defeat ISIS “in eight months than the previous administration has done in many years,” by giving the Pentagon a freer hand to do what’s needed to win. “I want to win and we’re going to win, and we’re beating ISIS very badly.”
McGurk credited what he called “pretty significant changes,” for speeding up the pace of the campaign. “I think it’s moving faster, more efficiently, and more effectively due to some really critical changes that were made in the strategic review led by [Defense Secretary Jim Mattis] and the whole interagency team with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson] and the chairman.”
Dunford took a longer view, noting that much of recent success came as result of a long process of rebuilding the dispirited Iraqi Army and assembling and training Syrian fighters. “If you look at where the Iraqis were in the fall of 2015 and you compare their combat capability to 2017, they have improved significantly over the last two years,” Dunford said. “If you look at where we were in the fall of 2015, at one point I think we had identified about 175 partners in Syria that we had trained and were available, maybe some hundreds that were available to fight. We now have over 50,000 partners on the ground, half of those partners Arab partners.”
NORTH KOREA: Mattis leaves Thailand today for South Korea for more discussions about what to do about the North. Mattis was tight-lipped on the plane ride to Bangkok, saying only that in his meeting with defense ministers in the Philippines, he sensed there was still hope that diplomacy and sanctions would prevail. “We are out for a peaceful resolution,” Mattis said. “Do we have military options in defense if we’re attacked, our allies are attacked? Of course we do. But everyone is out for a peaceful resolution.”
In an interview with Lou Dobbs on Fox Business Channel last night, Trump lamented that it has fallen to him to solve what has been an intractable problem for decades. “It should have never been given to me. This should have been solved long before I came to office, when it would have been easier to solve,” Trump said. “But it was given to me and I get it solved. I solve problems.”
CHINA’S POWER: Trump said he was fresh off a call with China’s President Xi Jinping and indicated he still thinks China is the key to getting North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to change course. Trump said he congratulated Xi on his consolidation of power in the recent party congress. “It’s really virtually never happened in China. He’s been given powers that nobody’s [had],” Trump said.
Trump said when he visits Beijing in two weeks, he will go wherever Xi takes him. “He’s a powerful man. I happen to think he’s a very good person,” Trump said. “People say we have the best relationship of any president-president, because he’s called president also. Now some people might call him the king of China. But he’s called president.”
AS FOR RUSSIA: While praising China, Trump blamed what he called “fake news” about the “phony” and “discredited” Russian dossier for hurting his relationship with Moscow, and which in turn hurts the effort to show a united front to North Korea. “China is helping us and maybe Russia’s going through the other way and hurting what we’re getting,” Trump said. “I think it would be great if we got along with Russia … you know they are a power, they’re a nuclear power. I think we could have a good relationship. I think that North Korean situation would be easier settled.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY, CLASSIFIED NIGER BRIEFINGS: Members of the Senate and House armed services committees will be briefed behind closed doors this morning on the attack by Islamic State-aligned forces in Niger this month that claimed the lives of four U.S. soldiers. The House receives its briefing at 8 a.m. and at 10 a.m. the Senate will hear from Robert Karem, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, and the Joint Staff’s Maj. Gen. Albert Elton. Questions have swirled for the past two weeks on Capitol Hill, along with reports that the Special Forces soldiers conducting the advise-and-assist operation with the Nigerien military lacked experience and were collecting intelligence on a high-value ISIS target. “What happened, that is the central question. Why would it take 48 hours for someone’s body to be found? What was the mission, what took place?” Sen. John McCain, the Armed Services chairman, told the Washington Examiner.
In his second news conference of the week, Dunford Tuesday dismissed as “speculation” reports 12 members of the U.S. special operations task force and the 30 Nigerien forces were collecting intelligence on a specific terrorist leader. “Anything that you’ve seen in that regard is speculation,” Dunford said. “Once the investigation is complete, we’ll have the facts and we’ll share them.” But the chairman did knock down any suggestion the U.S. team had a mission to kill or capture anyone. “The rules for that particular 12-man team are they were authorized to accompany Nigerien forces when the prospects of enemy contact was unlikely. That is the rules under which they were operating,” Dunford said.
Big questions remain about what happened in the fog of battle, and why U.S. troops waited an hour to call for air support. The Washington Post reported last night that for hours after the attack, White House officials thought there was more than one American soldier missing, and that it wasn’t until eight hours after the ambush they were told the bodies of the three were recovered, and that one soldier remained missing.
“We’d like to know how it could have been avoided,” Sen. Roger Wicker, an Armed Services subcommittee chairman, told the Washington Examiner. “I don’t know if they felt the situation was under control and didn’t call for assistance in that first hour or whether a decision was made at the control level.” See a full roundup of the top remaining questions here.
Yesterday, Trump said he didn’t specifically authorize the routine reconnaissance mission, but had full confidence in his military chain of command. “No, I didn’t. Not specifically.” Trump said “But I have generals that are great generals. These are great fighters.”
NDAA NEGOTIATIONS UNDERWAY: The four leaders of the House and Senate armed services committees stepped up to a rostrum outside a Dirksen hearing room yesterday to offer a few comments before going behind closed doors to officially start negotiations on the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, which aims to provide a major hike in military spending. Rep. Mac Thornberry, the House Armed Services chairman, pointed out that 79 percent of House members voted for his $696 billion version of the NDAA and 89 percent of senators voted for the $700 billion version spearheaded by McCain. “There is a widespread consensus that we need to do better for our military,” Thornberry said. The so-called Big Four will hear from dozens of conferees named to the NDAA conference committee and decide key issues in the must-pass annual bill, such as the number of ships and aircraft the military will get in 2018, and whether to elevate or nix a proposal to create a Space Corps military service. Thornberry and McCain estimated the work could be done quickly, possibly within days, because differences in the bills are small this year.
But Congress has still not come up with a deal to lift a $549 billion cap on defense spending or a plan to fund either version of the NDAA, which is causing growing uncertainty and fears of another stopgap budget resolution like the one passed in September. “I just want to emphasize how important it is that we pass this bill and how important it is that we pass an appropriations bill, we cannot live off of a continuing resolution,” Rep. Adam Smith, the ranking member on the House committee, said. McCain again warned defense budget woes are causing a snowball effect on military readiness that has led to mishaps and troop deaths. “We have to lift these budget caps if they are going to be ready to serve in a very tumultuous world,” he said.
3Q RESULTS: The Boeing Company is reporting third-quarter revenue of $24.3 billion, but its profit margin was affected by a further $329 million charge for its troubled KC-46 aerial refueling tanker program. Still, Boeing raised its full-year earnings and cash flow forecasts based on the strong performance in its main commercial airlines business. “Our teams across all three business segments are driving execution with a focus on both productivity and growth, which has enabled Boeing to deliver solid third quarter financial results, grow cash flow, and raise our 2017 outlook,” said Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg in a statement. Boeing stock, which was up 70 percent this year, took a 4.5 percent hit in late afternoon trading.
General Dynamics Corp. is reporting reported a third-quarter profit of $764 million, on revenue of $7.58 billion and operating earnings of $1.052 billion. “We enjoyed another strong quarter,” said Jason Aiken, Senior VP and CFO. “Against the year ago quarter, revenue was down $77 million, or 1%, but operating earnings were up $37 million, a 3.6% increase,” he said in a call with reporters yesterday. General Dynamics, which builds destroyers, submarines and military vehicles, saw its shares go up 23 percent since the beginning of the year.
TRUMP AND MCCAIN MET? After their feud erupted again on Twitter, there was no talk or meeting between Trump and Sen. Bob Corker, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, when the president visited the Senate for lunch Tuesday. But that might not be the case for another of Trump’s main political foils in the chamber, McCain, who recently described their relationship as almost non-existent. The Washington Examiner asked McCain whether he has seen any progress in lifting 2018 spending caps on the defense budget. “Yes, yesterday the president talked about the need to increase spending on defense. We’ll see,” he said. Trump appeared to confirm the two talked while taking questions from the press before boarding Marine One. “If you look at what happened yesterday at the meeting, we had I guess virtually every senator including John McCain,” Trump said talking about the Senate lunch. “We had a great conversation yesterday, John McCain and myself, about the military. I called it a love fest.” It’s probably safe to assume McCain would not use that term.
FEARS OF KURDISH ‘MASSACRE’: Trump should consider deploying military forces to prevent a “massacre” of U.S. allies in northern Iraq, a pair of senior lawmakers are suggesting. The proposal is prompted by the strain in U.S.-Iraqi relations over a brewing conflict that pits a critical American partner against the U.S.-backed central government of Iraq.
The Kurds, an ethnic minority in the country, have been the most effective local fighters against the Islamic State for years, but their push for independence has united American allies and adversaries in opposition and led to violence in contested territories. “I think we need to intervene,” House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes told the Washington Examiner. “I would want to go in there and do something because we don’t want to see a massacre.”
Iraq’s prime minister has dismissed the Kurds offer to “freeze” its independence effort as inadequate. “We won’t accept anything but its cancellation and the respect of the Constitution,” he said in a statement, according to Reuters.
HALEY’S HASTY ESCAPE: U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley was evacuated from a camp in South Sudan on Wednesday as residents of the U.N. camp protested Salva Kiir, president of South Sudan, according to a report.
The United Nations told the Associated Press that residents of the camp “became upset that she was not able to meet with them, due to time constraints.” After Haley was evacuated from the camp, security guards with the United Nations deployed tear gas to break up a crowd of at least 100 camp residents.
One resident of the camp told the Associated Press those living there wanted to give Haley a letter that discussed the “current crisis.” The United Nations said a “petition” was delivered before Haley left.
TRUMP’S ‘GREAT’ MEMORY: Trump yesterday defended the phone calls he has placed to the families of fallen soldiers, and said he was nothing but kind to the widow of Army Sgt. La David Johnson. “I was extremely nice to her. She sounds like a lovely lady. I’ve never met her, but she sounds like a lovely lady,” Trump said of Myeshia Johnson, La David Johnson’s wife. Myeshia Johnson said the president’s inability to remember her husband’s name upset her most.
“I respect her. I respect her family. I certainly respect La David, who, by the way, I called La David right from the beginning, just so you understand. They put a chart in front, La David. It says La David Johnson. So I, right from the beginning, no hesitation. One of the great memories of all time. There was no hesitation. I think she’s a fantastic woman. I was extremely nice to her. Extremely respectful,” Trump said of the call.
THE CLAUS ARE OUT: It’s getting downright dark out there on Twitter. The Air Force declared Santa Claus to be a hoax in a tweet that was intended to break up a Twitter-arms war between dueling regional bases in North Dakota and Missouri yesterday.
The @TeamMinot Air Force base in northern North Dakota and @Whiteman_AFB base in Missouri had been bickering back and forth on Twitter over which base is better.
The Air Force tried to break up the fight by urging both to be good or risk getting coal in their stockings come Christmas.
“We didn’t want to have to do this, but if you 2 can’t get along we must…Santa will bring you nothing this year…because he isn’t real!” the Air Force tweeted Wednesday morning.
IMPORTANT UPDATE: After the Washington Examiner ran a story on the comments, the official Air Force account tweeted: “Santa is real @Anna_Giaritelli! Bluffing to get @Whiteman_AFB @TeamMinot in line. Tracking him in Dec @NoradNorthcom.”
THE RUNDOWN
CNN: North Korea: Take H-bomb threat ‘literally’
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Pressed On Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Wall Street Journal: Abadi wants U.S.-Iran rivalry out of Iraq
Defense News: Northrop pulls out of MQ-25 drone competition
USNI News: 355-ship Navy could take more than three decades to build, acting Navy under secretary says
Foreign Policy: DOD pushing new missile defenses as existing technologies age
War on the Rocks: Congress owes our servicemembers an authorization for the use of military force
DefenseTech: In a first, Marines shoot HIMARS rocket from amphibious ship
USA Today: This is how many missiles North Korea will test before the end of the year
UPI: Airbus expected to lead light military helicopter market, report says
Military Times: Sen. John McCain to speak at Naval Academy
Reuters: Trump congratulates China’s Xi on ‘extraordinary elevation’
Defense One: U.S. space policy should aim to preserve advantage on the new frontier
Navy Times: Navy mum on cause of ship crash near Korean peninsula
Stars and Stripes: SEAL testifies in Bergdahl trial: ‘He’s an American…and he had a mom’
Calendar
THURSDAY | OCT. 26
8:15 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Documentary screening and discussion of “Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of ISIS.” cfr.org
9:30 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. The parallel gulag: North Korea’s “an-jeon-bu” prison camps. press.org
10 a.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Closed briefing on Niger with Robert Karem, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, and Maj. Gen. Albert Elton II, Joint Staff deputy director for special operations and counterterrorism. armed-services.senate.gov
12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Maintaining transatlantic unity on Ukraine with H.E. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former secretary general of Nato. hudson.org
4 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea with Joon-Pyo Hong, chairman of the Liberty Korea Party and Congressional Delegation. press.org
FRIDAY | OCT. 27
8 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. Mitchell space breakfast series: U.S. allies in space with Air Vice-Marshal “Rocky” Rochelle, of the Royal Air Force, and Wing Commander Steven Henry, Australian exchange officer at the Defense Department. michellaerospacepower.org
2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Inclusion in combat and security: A book event with Maj. M.J. Hegar. wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Book discussion of “Andrew Jackson and the Miracle of New Orleans: The Battle That Shaped America’s Destiny” with authors Brian Kilmeade, co-host of the Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends,” and Don Yaeger. heritage.org
3 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. The Syrian-American community will announce its support for initiatives of the interim government. press.org
MONDAY | OCT. 30
5701 Marinelli Rd. IPPM: Future dimensions of integration. ndia.org
9 a.m. 901 N. Stuart St. Microelectronics manufacturing models workshop. ndia.org
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A conversation on women and girls in Afghanistan with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani. csis.org
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Iraqi public opinion on the rise, fall and future of ISIS. csis.org
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book discussion of “Inside Terrorism” with author Bruce Hoffman. wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Russia’s demography: The basis for a prosperous future? atlanticcouncil.org
5 p.m. Dirksen 419. The administration perspective on the Authorizations for the Use of Military Force with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. foreign.senate.gov
5:30 p.m. 1667 K St. NW. Book talk on “Safeguarding Democratic Capitalism: U.S. Foreign Policy and National Security, 1920-2015.” csbaonline.org
TUESDAY | OCT. 31
10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The unfinished business of the 1989 East European revolutions. wilsoncenter.org
WEDNESDAY | NOV. 1
8 a.m. 1550 W. Nursery Rd. Cyber DFARS workshop. ndia.org
9:30 a.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Artificial Intelligence and Global Security Summit with Eric Schmidt, executive chairman of Alphabet, Inc. and the chair of the Defense Innovation Advisory Board. cnas.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Press briefing on President Trump’s trip to Asia. csis.org
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. From enemies to partners: Vietnam, the U.S. and Agent Orange. csis.org
2 p.m. House Visitor Center 210. Russia Investigative task force open hearing with social media companies including Kent Walker, general counsel for Google; Colin Stretch, general counsel for Facebook; and Sean Edgett, general counsel for Twitter. intelligence.house.gov
5:30 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Screening event for “The Long Road Home” with Rep. Jim Banks, Rep. Ruben Gallego and retired Gen. Peter Chiarelli, the former Army vice chief of staff. cnas.org
THURSDAY | NOV. 2
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Trump’s vision for Asia: What to expect from the U.S. presidential visit to the Asia-Pacific region with Kurt Campbell, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. wilsoncenter.org
