SHELL SHOCK AND AWE: With Russia having trimmed its aims in Ukraine to the “complete liberation” of the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, the stage is set for an extended World War II-style battle where each side pounds the other with artillery and rocket fire.
In an interview with India Today television, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the “special operation,” as Russia calls the war, has entered its next phase with the goal of the complete liberation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
“This operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the Donetsk and Luhansk republics,” Lavrov said. “This operation will continue. Another stage of this operation is beginning. I am sure that this will be a very important moment of this entire special operation.”
At the Pentagon yesterday, a senior defense official said Russia has moved two more battalion tactical groups, roughly 700 troops each, into Ukraine and begun “limited offensive operations” southwest of Donetsk and south of Izyum. “So now we count 78 operational battalion tactical groups in Ukraine,” the official said. “The Russians are still trying to improve their ability to sustain that going forward and to prepare for what we believe will be larger offensives in the future.”
RUSSIA TO ADD 20,000 MERCENARIES TO DONBAS BATTLE: REPORT
ZELENSKY: ‘EVERY DAY MATTERS’: In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky again stresses the outcome of this pivotal phase of the war rests almost entirely on Ukraine’s access to the arsenals of democracy.
“If we had access to all the weapons we need, which our partners have, and which are comparable to the weapons used by the Russian Federation, we would have already ended this war,” Zelensky said. “We would have already restored peace and liberated our territory from the occupiers, because the superiority of the Ukrainian military in tactics and wisdom is quite obvious.”
“I hope that the partners will hear this thesis and understand that every day matters. Any delay in helping Ukraine gives the occupiers an opportunity to kill more Ukrainians,” he said. “It is unfair that Ukraine is still forced to ask for what its partners have been storing somewhere for years. If they have the weapons that Ukraine needs here, needs now, if they have the ammunition that we need here and now, it is their moral duty first of all to help protect freedom. Help save the lives of thousands of Ukrainians.”
BIDEN PROMISES UKRAINE NEW ARTILLERY IN BATTLE AGAINST RUSSIA
US HOWITZERS ARRIVING ‘SOON’: As President Joe Biden has indicated that another $800 million package of weapons — including additional artillery and ammunition — is being prepared for Ukraine, the Pentagon said the last $800 million order is being filled at an unprecedented rate, including the promised 18 155mm howitzer artillery pieces.
“On the howitzers specifically, I think that you’ll see them move very, very soon,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby at yesterday’s briefing. “We’ve definitely sourced the 18, we know where they’re coming from. It’s really just a matter now of getting them packaged up and getting them on the way. They’ll be coming from the United States.” The 40,000 rounds of ammunition that go with them will be pulled from existing stocks in Europe, Kirby said, so the Ukrainians should have those weapons in “a matter of days.”
US MILITARY TO TRAIN UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS ON HOWITZERS
JETS, TANKS, AND SPARE PARTS: The Pentagon says that thanks to spare parts supplied by other NATO allies, Ukraine has been able to get more of its Soviet-era tanks and MiG jets back in the fight. “They have received additional aircraft and aircraft parts to help them, you know, get more aircraft in the air,” said Kirby.
“I mean, they right now have available to them more fixed-wing fighter aircraft than they did two weeks ago,” Kirby said. “And that’s not by accident, that’s because other nations who have experience with those kinds of aircraft have been able to help them get more aircraft up and running.”
“They have received tanks from other nations … the kinds of tanks that they know how to use, not the tanks that we have in our inventory,” Kirby said. “Some nations have provided spare parts so that they can get their inoperable tanks operable again.”
UKRAINIAN MILLIONAIRE TELLS MILITARY TO BOMB HIS RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED MANSION
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak to the Pentagon at 11 a.m., while Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski addresses the Economic Club of Washington at 12:30 p.m. Tomorrow, Austin meets at the Pentagon with Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova. The focus of both meetings is the war in Ukraine and Western efforts to arm and resupply the Ukrainians.
LATER TODAY: President Joe Biden meets with Austin, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, all eight members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and all U.S. combatant commanders at 4 p.m. in the Cabinet Room. Then, at 5:30 p.m., Biden and the first lady host a dinner for everyone and their spouses in the Blue Room.
ONE MORE LAST CHANCE: Russian forces have issued another ultimatum in an effort to flush out the last defenders of Mariupol, who, along with more than a thousand civilians, have been holed up in the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works, withstanding a constant barrage of bombs and artillery.
The latest demand for surrender calls for the holdouts to give up by 7 a.m. Washington time (2 p.m. in Mariupol). The commander of the troops at the steel plant, Maj. Serhiy Volyna of Ukraine’s 36th Separate Marine Brigade told the Washington Post, “We will not lay down our weapons,” and warned that his troops “may be facing our last days, if not hours.”
“The situation in Mariupol remains unchanged — as severe as possible. The Russian army is blocking any efforts to organize humanitarian corridors and save our people,” said Zelensky in his latest video. What appeared to be a “preliminary” agreement to open a humanitarian corridor for women, children, and the elderly to leave Mariupol has not materialized.
“The Kremlin is likely attempting to accelerate the capture of Mariupol for the domestic Russian information space judging from the large presence of Kremlin-sponsored journalists in the area,” says the Institute for the Study of War in its latest assessment. “The Russians may announce success even if Ukrainian forces retain their hold on portions of Azovstal, or they may wait until Russian or proxy forces have secured the entire facility.”
‘FACING OUR LAST DAYS’: MARIUPOL DEFENDER PLEADS TO BIDEN FOR ‘EXTRACTION’
THE RUSSIAN STRATEGY: ENCIRCLE AND DESTROY: According to the ISW analysis, the strategy for Russia’s main effort in the east appears to be aimed at conducting “a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along axes from Izyum to the southeast and from Donetsk City to the north.”
“An encirclement on this scale would likely take considerable time to complete against Ukrainian resistance,” says the ISW. “Even if the Russians did complete such an encirclement and trapped a large concentration of Ukrainian forces inside one or more pockets, the Ukrainian defenders would likely be able to hold out for a considerable period and might well be able to break out.”
Alternatively, Russian troops may try to complete “several smaller encirclements simultaneously, each trapping fewer Ukrainian forces and therefore taking less time,” the analysts say, while noting “coordinating such operations is complicated and beyond the planning and execution capacities the Russian army has demonstrated in the conflict thus far.”
“The tempo of Russian operations continues to suggest that President Vladimir Putin is demanding a hasty offensive to achieve his stated objectives, possibly by ‘Victory Day’ on May 9. The haste and partial preparation of the Russian attack will likely undermine its effectiveness and may compromise its success.”
NOT SO FAST: White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters traveling with Biden yesterday that the U.S. is not ready to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, as Zelensky has requested.
“There’s a lot of asks that President Zelensky has. We’re looking at a range of them,” Psaki said on Air Force One, noting that the process for the State Department making a determination is set by law in Congress.
“But for a country to be designated as a state sponsor of terrorism, the secretary of state would have to determine that the government of that country has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism. And only four countries have been designated to date: Cuba, North Korea, Iran, and Syria,” Psaki said. “The designation is defined by statute, meaning Congress has written into law the exact criteria under which a state would qualify as a state sponsor of terrorism.”
“I don’t have an update on what their process may or may not look like,” she said, referring reporters to the State Department.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden promises Ukraine new artillery in battle against Russia
Washington Examiner: Russia to add 20,000 mercenaries to Donbas battle: Report
Washington Examiner: ‘Facing our last days’: Mariupol defender pleads to Biden for ‘extraction’
Washington Examiner: Alexei Navalny says Russia killed civilian who shared his surname
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian millionaire tells military to bomb his Russian-occupied mansion
Washington Examiner: Putin awards honorary title to Russian brigade accused of Bucha war crimes
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian officials claim Russians attacking factory used as shelter in Mariupol
Washington Examiner: Pentagon has seen ‘no indications’ that Russian nuclear weapons use ‘imminent’
Washington Examiner: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin sounds alarm on new Iran nuclear agreement
Washington Examiner: Three sailors from same aircraft carrier found dead within a week
Washington Examiner: US military to train Ukrainian soldiers on howitzers
Washington Examiner: Pentagon official resigns, issues warning about US losing technological battle
Washington Examiner: US bans direct-ascent anti-satellite missile testing, Harris announces
Washington Examiner: Ten Democrats joining Republicans in opposing Biden’s plan to end Title 42
Washington Examiner: Republican governors form 26-state border task force amid worsening crisis
Washington Examiner: 42 arrested at border under Biden on terror watch list: DHS data
Washington Post: Commander of Mariupol’s last defenders tells The Post his soldiers won’t surrender, even as Russian attacks intensify
AP: Russia’s Chernobyl seizure seen as nuclear risk ‘nightmare’
AP: China looks to learn from Russian failures in Ukraine
Bloomberg: Kremlin Insiders Alarmed Over Growing Toll of Putin’s War in Ukraine
Stars and Stripes: Pentagon: Russia Has Lost About 25% Of Its Combat Power Originally Used In The Ukraine Invasion
Defense One: NATO Will Need A Transition Plan If Finland, Sweden Ask To Join
Washington Post: China Signs Security Deal With Solomon Islands, Alarming Neighbors
Air Force Magazine: Six Months Late to a Deal, F-35 Lot 15-17 Contract Negotiations Drag On
Air Force Magazine: Air Force’s Outgoing 1st Chief Architect Officer Offers 4 Steps for Overcoming Bureaucracy
Breaking Defense: Navy’s Approach To Cybersecurity Is ‘Wrong,’ Top Info Officer Says
The Defense Post: Taiwan Considers Buying Decommissioned U.S. Littoral Combat Ships
Army Times: Army chooses Sig Sauer to build its Next Generation Squad Weapon
Task & Purpose: A Fundamental Transformation Is Taking Place Within The Marine Corps. Is That A Good Thing?
USNI News: ‘Out Of Commission’ Destroyer CO Assigned To Shore Duty, Lawyers In COVID-19 Vaccination Suit Say
Navy Times: Navy IDs two of three USS George Washington sailors who died in the past 10 days
Red Snow: No Safeguards For Advanced, Coveted Weapon?
Army Times: Military Sites Honoring Confederates Can’t Be Renamed Without Further Action From Congress
19fortyfive.com: Columbia-Class: The Navy’s $110 Billion Ballistic Missile Submarine Program
19fortyfive.com: Would the B-52 Bomber Survive a War with Russia?
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Putin’s War on Donbas Could Turn Into a Nightmare
RealClear World: Opinion: For Finland And Sweden, The Time For Neutrality May Be Over
Forbes: Opinion: Army Aviation: There’s More To Future Vertical Lift Than The Airframes
The Cipher Brief: Analysis: Energy’s Impact on Europe’s Moral Imperative
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: The Last Chapter of Putin’s War / By Walter Pincus
Calendar
8:30 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group’s Federal Computer Week virtual workshop: “Digital Revolution,” with Steve Wallace, systems innovation specialist at the Defense Information Systems Agency’s Emerging Technologies Directorate https://events.fcw.com/digital-revolution
8:45 a.m. 2500 Calvert St. N.W. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Cyber Mission Summit, with Nancy Kriedler, director for cybersecurity and information assurance in the Office of the Army CIO for Command, Control, Communications, Cyber Operations and Networks; Air Force Brig. Gen. Matteo Martemucci, director of intelligence at the U.S. Cyber Command; and Holly Baroody, deputy to the commander at the Cyber National Mission Force https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/CybersecurityTechSummit
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Tracking Developments in Counterspace Weapons,” with Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation; Victoria Samson, Washington office director at the Secure World Foundation; and Michael Mineiro, vice president of legal, regulatory, and government affairs at HawkEye 360, Inc. https://www.csis.org/events/tracking-developments-counterspace-weapons
9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual discussion: “Fiscal Year 2023 Department of Defense Science and Technology Budget Priorities,” with Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu; Deputy Assistant Army Secretary for Research and Technology William Nelson; Deputy Assistant Air Force Secretary for Science, Technology and Engineering Kristen Baldwin; and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Director Stephanie Tompkins https://www.ndia.org/events
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on a new report, “Following the Crypto: Using Blockchain Analysis to Assess the Strengths and Vulnerabilities of North Korean Hackers,” with Eric Penton-Voak, coordinator at the UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Nick Carlsen, blockchain intelligence analyst at TRM Labs; Jason Bartlett, research associate at the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program; and Yaya Fanusie, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-following-the-crypto
10 a.m. — The SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C. virtual discussion: “NATO’s Response and the U.S. Policy on Ukraine,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Mark Katz, professor at George Mason University’s School of Policy and Government; Kilic Kanat, SETA research director; and Kadir Ustun, SETA executive director https://tinyurl.com/444yux92
10 a.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe virtual briefing: “Diverse Voices Reporting From Ukraine,” with Oz Katerji, freelance conflict journalist; Asami Terajima, journalist at the Kyiv Independent; and Olga Tokariuk, independent journalist based in Ukraine and non-resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://ushr.webex.com/webappng/sites/ushr/meeting/register
10:30 a.m. — Palo Alto Networks Joint Service Academy Cybersecurity Summit: “The Role of Cyber in Hybrid Warfare and Great Power Competition/Conflict,” with Retired Lt. Gen. B.J. Shwedo, director, U.S. Air Force Academy Institute for Future Conflict; Bruce Byrd, executive vice president and general counsel; Retired Vice Adm. T.J .White, former commander, U.S. Fleet Cyber Command and commander, U.S. Tenth Fleet and member of Palo Alto Networks Public Sector Council; Lt. Gen. Stephen Fogarty, commanding general, U.S. Army Cyber Command; Rear Adm. Michael Ryan, commander, U.S. Coast Guard Cyber Command; Russ Meade, executive director, U.S. Marine Forces Cyberspace Command; Vice Adm. Ross Myers, commander, U.S. Fleet Cyber Command and commander, U.S. Tenth Fleet; Lt. Gen. Charles Moore, deputy commander, U.S. Cyber Command; Maj. Gen. William Hartman, commander, Cyber National Mission Force; Lt. General Robert Skinner , director Defense Information Systems Agency and the commander Joint Force Headquarters-Department of Defense Information Network https://register.paloaltonetworks.com/jsacyber
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” virtual discussion on the role of the Total Army in supporting the U.S. Central Command and U.S. Army Central objectives in the Middle East, with Lt. Gen. Ronald Clark, commanding general of U.S. Army Central; and retired Lt. Gen. Leslie Smith, former inspector general of the Army https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report
12:30 p.m. — National Economists Club luncheon discussion with the Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. https://www.economicclub.org/events/he-marek-magierowski
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “One-Size-Fits-None: Overhauling Joint All-Domain Command and Control to Deliver Customized Solutions to the U.S. Military,” with Mark Lewis, director of the National Defense Industrial Association’s Emerging Technologies Institute; James Steward, department chief scientist for spectrum warfare systems at the Naval Surface Warfare Center’s Crane Division; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2104-virtual-event
4 p.m. — President Joe Biden meets with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, all eight members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and all U.S. combatant commanders in the Cabinet Room. At 5:30 p.m., Biden and the First Lady host a dinner for everyone and their spouses in the Blue Room.
THURSDAY | APRIL 21
5 a.m. — International Energy Agency virtual briefing on “how to save money, reduce reliance on Russian energy, support Ukraine and help the planet,” with European Commission Director-General for Energy Ditte Juul Jorgensen; and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol https://ieaorg.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion on “the role of grand strategy in advancing U.S. interests, today’s national security challenges, and a vision for the foreign policy of the next president,” with Matt Kroenig, professor at Georgetown University and deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum: with Peter Pry, executive director of Task Force on National and Homeland Security; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Defense One virtual forum on “Artificial Intelligence,” with Matt Turek, information innovation office program manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, delivers remarks focusing on AI and national security; and Brett Vaughan, chief AI officer at the Navy https://events.nextgov.com/genius-machines-2022/
FRIDAY | APRIL 22
12:30 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “South Korea’s Presidential Election and Expectations of the U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) Alliance,” with Mark Tokola, vice president of the Korean Economic Institute of America; and Celeste Arrington, professor at GWU https://calendar.gwu.edu/south-koreas-presidential-election
2 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Implications of the Conflict in Ukraine on the Middle East Security,” with Alex Vatanka, director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program; Sina Azodi, visiting scholar at the GWU Institute for Middle East Studies; Nicole Grajewski, pre-doctoral research fellow at the Belfer Center’s International Security Program; and Negar Mortazavi, columnist at The Independent https://calendar.gwu.edu/implications-conflict-ukraine-middle-east-security
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“People speak about this as if it’s inevitable that Mariupol’s going to fall, that it’s inevitable that Donbas will be taken by the Russians. We don’t see it that way, and we’re doing everything we can to make sure that it’s not inevitable.”
Senior defense official, briefing Pentagon reporters Tuesday.
