ALLIES JOLTED BY LEAK OF DOD DOCS: The leak of highly-classified Pentagon documents and briefing slides, which circulated on the internet Thursday and Friday, has prompted a criminal leak investigation and resulted in a scramble to contain the damage to relations with U.S. allies who may have been the target of spy operations.
The documents, some of which have been altered to further Russa’s narrative of the Ukraine war, reveal sensitive war planning information such as the location of Ukrainian air defenses. They also divulge Ukranian ammunition shortages, as well as highlight the extent to which the U.S. spies on friends and foes alike.
“An interagency effort has been stood up, focused on assessing the impact these photographed documents could have on U.S. national security and on our allies and partners,” said Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon’s deputy press secretary, in a statement released last night. “Over the weekend, U.S. officials have engaged with allies and partners and have informed relevant congressional committees of jurisdiction about the disclosure.”
Among the revelations: Russia nearly shot down a British RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane over the Black Sea last September.
DOJ LAUNCHES CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION INTO APPARENT LEAKED ‘HIGHLY CLASSIFIED’ US INTELLIGENCE
SOUTH KOREA SEEKS ‘APPROPRIATE MEASURES’: One of the potentially embarrassing revelations is that the U.S. may have had the capacity to “eavesdrop” on private conversations conducted in the South Korean presidential office.
“One document based on what is delicately referred to as ‘signals intelligence’ describes the internal debate in Seoul over how to handle American pressure to send more lethal aid to Ukraine, which would violate the country’s practice of not directly sending weapons into a war zone,” reported the New York Times. According to the document, discussions included the “possibility” of selling 330,000 rounds of 155-millimeter artillery shells to Poland to get around the policy.
The report prompted the office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to issue a statement that, after a review of the alleged eavesdropping, Seoul would request appropriate measures from the U.S. if necessary.” A presidential spokesman said, “That process will proceed based on a relationship of trust formed between two allies,” according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
LEAKED PENTAGON DOCUMENTS SHOW HOW DEEP US HAS PENETRATED RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE
PHOTOSHOPPED PROPAGANDA: Some of the briefing slides initially posted early last month on Discord, a social media chat platform popular with video gamers, were reposted on Telegram and Twitter with obvious alterations.
A side-by-side comparison of one slide shows that an estimate of 16,000 to 17,500 Ukrainian war deaths has been moved into the Russian column replacing the actual estimate of 35,500 to 45,500 Russian deaths. The slide also shows the numbers in the Ukrainian line item have been transposed to show 71,500 Ukrainian deaths instead of the actual number of up to 17,500.
Ukraine has closely guarded its casualty figures in an effort to maintain the morale of its troops and support from the West. The U.S. believes the total number of casualties, defined as both dead and wounded, exceeds 200,000 for Russia and 100,000 for Ukraine.
But there’s plenty of useful information on the briefing slides, which provide a snapshot of the U.S. assessment of the war effort during the February-March timeframe. The level of detail suggests the U.S. may have a spy in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, which could result in a “mole hunt” in Moscow that endangers the life of the source.
“Whoever was behind this leak should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. If there was a political motive, this needs [to be] exposed,” tweeted former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). “The Pentagon needs to get its ‘leak issue’ in order … fewer people and tighter controls.”
“Leaks such as these can have a multitude of damaging consequences. They can expose sensitive collection capabilities as well as impending plans and strategies prior to their execution. At their worst, they can cost the lives of intelligence operatives and soldiers on military operations,” wrote Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army major general, on his Substack page.
“The leaks are also a nightmare for President Biden, Secretary General Stoltenberg, and President Zelensky,” said Ryan. “And finally, the leaks are a massive kick in the stomach for the soldiers seeking to hold the line in the defense of Ukraine.”
RUSSIA LIKELY BEHIND LEAKS OF CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS ON UKRAINE WAR: REPORT
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HAPPENING THIS WEEK: President Joe Biden departs tomorrow for a weeklong trip to his ancestral home of Ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday accord, a U.S.-brokered agreement that helped end decades of deadly sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.
Biden will “mark the tremendous progress since the signing of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement 25 years ago and to underscore the readiness of the United States to support Northern Ireland’s vast economic potential to the benefit of all communities,” the White House said in a statement.
“The President will then travel to Ireland from April 12-14. He will discuss our close cooperation on the full range of shared global challenges. He will also hold various engagements, including in Dublin, County Louth, and County Mayo, where he will deliver an address to celebrate the deep, historic ties that link our countries and people.”
SECURITY CONCERNS MOUNT AS BIDEN’S NORTHERN IRELAND VISIT NEARS
CHINA ENCIRCLES TAIWAN: Today marks the third and final day of a massive Chinese military exercise dubbed “Joint Sword,” which the Chinese Defense Ministry described as a “combat readiness security patrol encircling the Taiwan Island.”
The show of force was made up of about a dozen warships, including an aircraft carrier and more than 70 planes that penetrated Taiwan’s airspace.
“This is a stern warning to the provocative activities of ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces and their collusion with external forces, and a necessary move to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the ministry said in a statement.
The provocative military action followed a meeting between Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in California, and a visit to Taiwan by a congressional delegation led by House Foreign Affairs Chairman Mike McCaul (R-TX), which met with Tsai in Taipei.
MCCAUL: ‘IT’S NOT GOING TO INTIMIDATE US’: “This is an intimidation tactic that they’re known for. The size of this one is quite large, one of the largest ones we’ve seen. But it’s not going to intimidate us,” McCaul said on NBC’s Meet the Press as he wrapped up his visit to Taiwan. “We have every right to be here, to meet with President Tsai. And it actually strengthens our resolve.”
But McCaul also warned that Taiwan’s military forces are “not where they need to be” to deter China, and that weapons approved for sale to Taiwan three years ago have still not been delivered to Taiwan. “If we’re going to have deterrence for peace, we need to get these weapons into Taiwan.”
“Secondly is the combat training that is occurring on the island. We need to ramp that up to a larger scale so they can provide that projection of strength and deterrence,” he said. “That will provide deterrence to Chairman Xi to think twice about an invasion.”
On Fox News Sunday, Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) said the first thing Congress needs to do is pass a budget that’s not held hostage to the debate on raising the debt ceiling.
“Negotiate the budget for the next fiscal year that starts October 1. We shouldn’t negotiate whether we are going to pay our bills for what we’ve already spent. That’s what the debt ceiling is about,” Cardin told Fox’s Shannon Bream. “Do a bipartisan budget that’s strong on our national defense, that replenishes our supply chain so that we have the military equipment we need to take care of our own internal security issues as well as help the Ukrainians and the Taiwanese deal with their security commitments.”
WATCH: KAYLEE MCGHEE WHITE SAYS NOW’S THE ‘TIME FOR MORAL CLARITY’ ON CHINA
GRAHAM: TIME TO ‘UP OUR GAME’: Also appearing on Fox, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called for a series of more in-your-face measures to send a message to Beijing that any attempt to move on Taiwan would have disastrous consequences for the Chinese economy.
“I’m fearful the Chinese may be setting conditions to blockade Taiwan in [the] coming months or weeks, and we need to respond forcefully. If they do that, we need to blockade oil shipments coming from the Midwest to China and let them know if you blockade Taiwan, we’re going to cut off your oil,” Graham said.
“We need to train more aggressively Taiwanese forces so they can fight like the Ukrainians,” he said. “I would increase training and get the F-16s they need in Taiwan. There’s a backlog. I would solve that backlog. I would move war forces to South Korea and Japan. I would put nuclear-tipped cruise missiles in all of our submarines all over the world, like the Russians did when they got out of the nuclear treaty and started using cruise missiles, nuclear tipped.”
“So, I would up our game. If you don’t up your game now, you are going to have a war,” he said, adding. “I’d be very much open to using U.S. forces to defend Taiwan because it’s in our national security interest to do so.”
LINDSEY GRAHAM SAYS HE WOULD BE ‘OPEN TO USING U.S. FORCES TO DEFEND TAIWAN
MACRON: EUROPE SHOULD NOT BE DRAGGED INTO WAR WITH CHINA: In an interview with reporters aboard his plane after a three-day visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe should pursue a strategy independent of both Washington and Beijing.
“The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No,” Macron told reporters, including one from Politico, which published his comments Sunday. ”The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction,” he said.
“Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, ‘watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there’? If you really want to increase tensions, that’s the way to do it,” Macron said.
Macron also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar,” a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing, according to Politico. “If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won’t have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals,” he said.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: DOJ launches criminal investigation into apparent leaked ‘highly classified’ US intelligence
Washington Examiner: Pentagon ‘reviewing’ leak of classified Ukraine war documents on social media
Washington Examiner: Russia likely behind leaks of classified documents on Ukraine war: Report
Washington Examiner: Leaked Pentagon documents show how deep US has penetrated Russian intelligence
Washington Examiner: Lindsey Graham says he would be ‘open to using U.S. forces to defend Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Taiwan legislative leader highlights China’s ‘horrendous’ human rights record
Washington Examiner: Israel faces risk of ‘ugliest war in recent memory in the Middle East’
Washington Examiner: Turkey’s Erdogan aligns with Iran against Israel’s ‘attacks
Washington Examiner: Senate Dem defends Biden’s ‘very bad options’ on Afghan withdrawal
Washington Examiner: White House hit over denying ‘chaos’ in Afghanistan withdrawal
Washington Examiner: Lindsey Graham slams Afghanistan report as ‘political whitewash’ that opens door for ‘another 9/11’
Washington Examiner: Afghanistan evacuations should have happened earlier, White House admits
Washington Examiner: US still hasn’t gotten consular access to American reporter in Russian jail
Washington Examiner: WATCH: Kaylee McGhee White says now’s the ‘time for moral clarity’ on China
New York Times: Leaked Documents Suggest Ukrainian Air Defense Is in Peril if Not Reinforced
Washington Post: As spring offensive nears, Ukraine is drafting reinforcements
Washington Post: Facing ammo shortage, Ukrainians ration shells
Washington Post: U.K. spy plane’s close call is leaked
CNN: U.S. Navy Sails Near South China Sea Island Militarized By China
Yonhap: N. Korea unresponsive to routine inter-Korean liaison, military hotline calls for 4th day
AP: North Korea Claims Another Test of Underwater Nuclear Drone
AP: Ukraine brings back 31 children from Russia amid war
AP: Proud Boys leaders’ Jan. 6 sedition trial inches to a close
AP: Once everywhere, Saddam’s image scrubbed from Baghdad
New York Times: U.S. Sent Sub To Middle East To Deter Iran Amid Tensions
Breaking Defense: Finnish Naval Officer Talks NATO Expectations, Russia’s Conduct At Sea And Ukraine Conflict’s Future
Breaking Defense: Rep. Wittman on F-35 Engine Upgrade, KC-46 Concerns and Which USAF Plane’s ‘Time Is Done’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Moore: ‘It’s Time to Move On’ from Block 20 F-22s, JATM Still on Schedule
Air & Space Forces Magazine: To Deter Attacks in Space, US Needs Resilience—and an ‘Offensive Threat,’ Experts Say
Space News: Northrop Grumman Developing Military Communications Satellite for 2025 Launch
Air & Space Forces Magazine: The Air Force Is Offering Enlisted Airmen a $10,000 Bonus to Join the Reserve
Air Force Times: Top Air Force Recruiter Predicts Maintainer, Security Forces Shortage
Politico: DoD’s Highest-Ranking Trans Official: ‘Ostracizing Anybody’ Will Hurt Military Readiness
CNN: Defense Officials Warn Of Potential Impact Tuberville Hold On Nominations Will Have On Military
Task & Purpose: The Space Force’s baggy dress pants are still undergoing ‘refinement’ 18 months after their debut
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: How the U.S. Navy Could Destroy China’s Aircraft Carriers in a War
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Indo-Pacific Maritime Security: What Does the Future Look Like?
Calendar
MONDAY | APRIL 10
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council and the University of Nebraska at Omaha: Chuck Hagel Forum in Global Leadership on the role of U.S. leadership in a changing world,” with former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel; and Gerald Seib, former Washington executive editor of the Wall Street Journal https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2023-chuck-hagel-forum-in-global-leadership
TUESDAY | APRIL 11
7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arl. — Association of the U.S. Army discussion: with Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/camarillo
8:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “U.S.-China relations,” with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns on “U.S.-China Relations” https://www.stimson.org/event/nicholas-burns-us-ambassador-to-china
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Assessing the U.S. Military’s Force Structure,” with Jon Askonas, assistant professor of politics at the Catholic University of America https://www.hudson.org/events/assessing-us-militarys-force-structure
11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Cyber threats to the Department of Defense, National Security Systems and the Defense Industrial Base and the future of the cybersecurity ecosystem,” with Rob Joyce, director of cybersecurity at the National Security Agency https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-cybersecurity
12 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University discussion: “Stabilizing China-U.S. Relations: A Chinese Perspective,” with Shao Yuqun, senior fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies’s Center for American Studies https://www.georgetown.edu/event/stabilizing-china-u-s-relations
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion: Putin: His Life and Times, with author Philip Short https://quincyinst.org/event/book-talk-putin-and-putins-world
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “The Future of Army Fires and Multi-Domain Environments: How Data Convergence is Galvanizing Future Weapon Systems,” with Col. John Whelahan, director, Army capability manager for fires cells and targeting, Fires Center of Excellence; James Schliesske, chief for systems engineering at the Fire Support Command and Control’s Office of Product Manager; and Jeremiah Johnson, principal for C2 mission systems at Booz Allen Hamilton https://events.govexec.com/the-future-of-army-fires
2 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace book discussion: “Russian Grand Strategy in the Era of Great Power Competition,” with editor Andrew Monaghan, global fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute; and Mary Glantz, senior adviser at the USIP’s Center for Russia and Europe https://www.usip.org/events/russian-grand-strategy-era-great-power-competition
4 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “A Rock and A Hard Place: The Russian Opposition in a Time of War,” with Jeremy Ladd, visiting assistant professor at Cornell University https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/a_rock_and_a_hard_place
4 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics discussion: “The War in Ukraine: An Estonian Perspective,” with Estonian Ambassador to the U.S. Kristjan Prikk https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-war-in-ukraine-an-estonian-perspective/
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 12
8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Cyber Media Forum breakfast-discussion: with Nathaniel Fick, ambassador at large, State Department Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy. RSVP: https://docs.google.com/forms
11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual 2023 Margaret Thatcher Freedom Lecture with former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/event
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Investigating alleged Russian war crimes,” with Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
1 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW -— Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies event: “Ukraine’s Cultural Response to War,” with Ian Grant, creator and host of PBS’s Culture Quest https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ukraines-cultural-response
1 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption: Interim report launch,” with former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; and former Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/commission-on-defense-innovation
4 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Asia Program Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture on “U.S.-East Asia Relations,” focusing on current challenges for Taiwan and U.S.-Taiwan relations, with Jacques deLisle, director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Center for the Study of Contemporary China https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
THURSDAY | APRIL 13
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “Transactional or Strategic? The Future of Russo-Iranian Relations,” with Abdullah Baabood, visiting professor at Waseda University; Anna Borshchevskaya, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Mahmood Sariolghalam, nonresident scholar at MEI; and Alex Vatanka, director of the MEI’s Iran Program https://mei.edu/events/transactional-or-strategic-future-russo-iranian-relations
11 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The role of digital economy in Ukraine’s reconstruction,” with Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation Alex Bornyakov; and Denelle Dixon, CEO of the Stellar Development Foundation https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-role-of-digital-economy
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Enabling the Mission of the New Triad: A Dispatch from Global Force 2023,” with Col. Pete Atkinson, chief of operations at the U.S. Army Space Division https://events.govexec.com/enabling-the-mission-of-the-new-triad/
1:30 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual discussion: ”FY 2024 DoD Science and Technology Budget Priorities,” with Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu; Deputy Assistant Army Secretary for Research and Technology William “Willie” Nelson; Chief of Naval Research Rear Adm. Lorin Selby; and Stefanie Tompkins, director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency https://www.ndia.org/events/2023/4/13/fy24-dod-s-and-t-budget-priorities
5 p.m. 1761 Business Center Dr., Reston, Va. — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The Myths and Realities of the 1968 Tet Offensive,” with James Robbins, senior fellow in national security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-myths-and-realities-of-the-1968-tet-offensive/
FRIDAY | APRIL 14
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of Western Aid to Ukraine,” with Acting Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Dereck Hogan https://www.csis.org/events/future-western-aid-ukraine-conversation
10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Russia, Ukraine, and the Struggle for Democracy,” with Anne Applebaum, staff writer for the Atlantic; and Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at CEIP https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/04/14/carnegie-connects
11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Constraining Russia’s War Economy: Lessons from Lithuania,” with Lithuanian Minister of Finance Gintare Skaiste https://www.hudson.org/events/constraining-russias-war-economy
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Sanctions and Russia’s Defense Industry,” with Samuel Bendett, adviser on Russia studies at the Center for Naval Analyses; Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; Paul Schwartz, nonresident senior associate at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/sanctions-and-russias-defense-industry
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “The US-South Korea alliance at 70,” with U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg; followed by a panel discussion with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Multilateral Affairs Jung Pak https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-us-rok-alliance-at-70
TUESDAY | APRIL 18
TBA 2247 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability Select Coronavirus Pandemic Subcommittee hearing: “Investigating the Origins of COVID-19, Part 2: China and the Available Intelligence,” with testimony from John Ratcliffe, former director of national intelligence; and David Feith, former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs http://oversight.house.gov
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Nobody wants World War III. But what kind of world do you want to live in? Do you want to live in a world where an island called Taiwan could be taken by China, 90% of the high end chips are made in Taiwan? They would have a monopoly on the digital economy. Do you want to just let Putin take whatever he wants in Europe? I don’t want to live in that kind of world.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), on Fox News Sunday, saying he’s open to using U.S. troops to defend Taiwan
