|
‘WAR GAMES’ JUST TOO PRICEY: President Trump‘s now standing order for the U.S. military to stand down on the kind of robust annual joint exercises with South Korea the Pentagon always considered indispensable is all about saving taxpayers money, not kowtowing to Kim Jong Un, Trump said in his latest tweet on the subject. “The military drills, or war games as I call them, were never even discussed in my mtg w/ Kim Jong Un of NK—FAKE NEWS! I made that decision long ago because it costs the U.S. far too much money to have those ‘games’, especially since we are not reimbursed for the tremendous cost!” WHAT ARE THEY GOOD FOR? As noted in yesterday’s edition of Daily on Defense, Trump has long expressed his disdain for U.S. troops “playing” at their “fun” “war games,” which he views as an expensive service to other countries who should pay for the protection the United States is providing, not something necessary for maintaining readiness in the event of war and that advances the security interests of the United States. Trump is correct that the cancellation of the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle combined exercises that would normally be underway now is not a new concession. It’s the same old concession from last year, which former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said would be reviewed depending on progress in the talks. Trump and Pompeo both insist tremendous progress was made in the talks, despite the fact the session was cut short and Trump walked away with nothing to announce. Mattis, it should be noted, craftily refashioned the exercises to look smaller while maintaining a high level of training, something Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan is trying to finesse as well with what are described as “newly designed Command Post exercises and revised field training programs.” MEANWHILE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DMZ: “We are watching the ongoing Korean People’s Army winter training cycle, including a slate of full spectrum exercises, which is progressing along at historic norms,” U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Robert Abrams told Congress three weeks ago. “Meaning that we have observed no significant changes to size, scope, or timing of their ongoing exercises compared to the same time period over the last four years.” “We must continue to exercise the core competencies necessary to the planning and execution of joint and combined operations under this strain of crisis,” Abrams said while acknowledging his political guidance. “However, we must also strike a balance between the need to train and the requirement to create space for diplomacy to flourish. As such, we are innovating our approach to training and exercises by tuning four dials that modify exercise design and conduct: size, scope, volume, and timing.” In his Feb. 12 testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Abrams insisted he had the authority to plan for “large-scale exercises” in the spring and that the Pentagon was on board. “I’ve worked very closely with the [South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff] and the [South Korean Joint Chiefs] chairman himself in that new construct and have forwarded that up to the Department of Defense and received full support to continue with our planning.” THE REVIEWS ARE IN: “This is the wrong decision for the wrong reasons,” says retired Lt. Gen. Tom Spoehr of the Heritage Foundation. “The Trump administration made a decision that could weaken U.S. and South Korean readiness in a conflict with North Korea.” Spoehr, director of Heritage’s Center for National Defense, said the fact that last week’s Hanoi summit “resulted in no forward progress toward denuclearization” makes the Pentagon’s justification “even more inexplicable.” “A typical exercise costs around $14 million—not a trivial amount, but necessary in order to practice military coordination with allies and iron out the wrinkles that inevitably emerge in complex military operations,” he writes. “The best military is of little value unless it is properly trained. And by cancelling, not just suspending, these exercises, the U.S. is unilaterally lowering its readiness.” “There has also been no reduction in the North Korean conventional threat, as its forces remain postured for offensive operations,” says Bradley Bowman of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “U.S. and South Korean military leaders are seeking to make the best of a difficult situation — supporting diplomatic efforts while trying to minimize any degradation to military readiness. The U.S. and ROK should continually assess whether the new exercises and programs will accomplish both objectives.” ADVICE FROM SOMEONE WHO’S BEEN THERE: Robert Gallucci was the chief U.S. negotiator of the 1994 “framework agreement” that arguably succeeded in freezing North Korea’s nuclear program for eight years. Writing on the North Korea monitoring site 38 North, Gallucci said that in the Hanoi talks it’s clear neither side was adequately prepared. “There was no prior agreement between the two sides on what the deal would be, one that the leaders could embrace, endorse, sign and bring home as a plausible victory or success for which a grateful population would express thanks,” Gallucci writes. “We should not look forward to more summits in which the leaders come together without a clue about what they will leave with.” So his advice: The tried and true method for conducting national security negotiations, where professionals meet to negotiate over issues they understand to reach agreements they have reason to believe their leaders would accept, is a good model for what should happen next. Twenty-five years ago when the US and North Korea squared off in our first nuclear crisis, teams of professionals from both sides met, on and off, for sixteen months, first in New York and then in Geneva. The North’s team was led by a vice foreign minister and, as an assistant secretary of state, I led the American team. Mid-level bureaucrats, in constant touch with their bosses in capitals, negotiated and ultimately signed a formal document, the so-called Agreed Framework. That deal put off North Korean plutonium production and nuclear weapons development for a decade before collapsing. It was better than no deal, always my standard. Now, both the US and the DPRK have identified professionals who know a lot more about each other and what kind of deal might stick. They should be given a chance to see if they can reach this standard. SMITH DENOUNCES TRUMP’S EMBRACE OF DICTATORS: “Like many Americans, I am continually disturbed at President Trump’s willingness to praise dictators, including Kim Jong Un,” said Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, in a statement last night. Smith accused Trump of “fully exonerating” Kim of responsibility in the death of American college student Otto Warmbier, whose harsh treatment and unjust imprisonment in North Korea left him brain dead when he was finally returned to his family. “When given the chance to stand strong for American values, he’s shown weakness.” “I want to see diplomacy with North Korea succeed,” said Smith. “However, as we pursue a diplomatic solution to a grave national security threat, we should not abandon, nor be silent about fundamental American principles.” Smith said Trump has lavished “excessive praise” on Kim. “This is part of a disturbing, broader pattern that includes the President’s unbridled positive sentiments on autocrats like Vladimir Putin of Russia, and other partners who also act counter to our principles, while the administration knowingly looks the other way.” Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. |
|
HAPPENING TODAY: U.S. special representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun will brief members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on what happened in the talks between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, amid reports that Trump surprised Kim with his knowledge of a suspected uranium processing facility that North Korea thought was still secret. The Senate hearing is closed to discuss classified intelligence. Trump hinted at this during his post-summit news conference in Vietnam: “We know the country very well, believe it or not. We know every inch of that country.” He said Kim’s offer was “to denuke, but he wants to just do areas that are less important than the areas that we want,” adding, “We have to get what we have to get, because that’s a big give.” ALSO HAPPENING TODAY: The growing military threat from Russia, the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, and U.S. troops in Europe will all be on the agenda this morning as U.S. European and Supreme NATO commander Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee (9:30 a.m., G50, Dirksen). Also at the hearing will be Gen. Stephen Lyons, commander of the U.S. Transportation Command, who will be asked about… something else. DUNFORD MEETS GERASIMOV: One of the below-the-radar events that happen from time to time and are designed to keep the U.S.-Russia relationship from going off the rails is Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford meeting quietly with his Russian counterpart Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian general staff. Such was the case yesterday in Austria. “In accordance with past practice, both generals have agreed to keep the details of their conversations private,” said Col. Pat Ryder, a spokesman for Dunford. The two generals have a good relationship, under the circumstances. Both are military men who are subject to the political whims of their respective leaders. And the value in the face-to-face talks is that each can speak frankly without fear their remarks will cause an international incident. “Both leaders recognize the importance of maintaining regular communication to avoid miscalculation and to promote transparency and deconfliction in areas where our militaries are operating in close proximity,” said Ryder in a statement. “The two military leaders discussed the deconfliction of Coalition and Russian operations in Syria, and exchanged views on the state of U.S.-Russia military relations and the current international security situation in Europe and other key topics.” THE RISE OF THE MERCHANT MARINERS: President Trump signed an executive order yesterday that allows active-duty service members and military veterans to transition to civilian jobs as U.S. Merchant Mariners. Calling the Merchant Marines “the nation’s fourth arm of defense,” White House adviser Peter Navarro said the order will address a critical shortage of civilians who transport cargo and personnel in peace and war, by eliminating expensive requirements. “It makes it easier for sea service veterans to get high-paying, high-skilled jobs as mariners by waiving government-issued licensing fees and by crediting military training in the National Maritime Center credentialing system,” said Navarro in a conference call with White House reporters. “Currently, we face a shortfall of Merchant Mariners that may have serious national security implications.” According to the Department of Transportation, the number of Merchant Mariners with unlimited ocean-going credentials who have sailed in the last 18 months has dropped below 12,000. “The civilian men and women of the United States Merchant Marine pilot the sealift vehicles that deliver things like tanks, helicopters, and even troops, often in hostile waters and at great personal risk. And in so doing, they are a mission-critical component of U.S. military readiness,” said Navarro. “According to estimates from the Department of Transportation, if the U.S. entered into a large-scale conflict that required the military’s full mobilization, we could fall short of the number of mariners needed to sustain contingency operation.” THAAD TO ISRAEL: U.S. European Command announced yesterday that a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system based at Ft. Bliss, Texas, deployed to Israel this week for joint exercises. EUCOM called the deployment a demonstration of the U.S. commitment to Israel’s regional security. “THAAD is the most advanced integrated air and missile defense system in the world, and this deployment readiness exercise demonstrates that U.S. forces are agile, and can respond quickly and unpredictably to any threat, anywhere, at any time,” the statement said. “This first rapid deployment of THAAD to the EUCOM theater will set the pace and precedent for upcoming deployments into Europe to integrate THAAD with Patriot and other missile defense systems that are already deployed in Europe by the United States and its European allies,” said Riki Ellison of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. “The Army has had a requirement for nine THAAD batteries, but only seven have been funded. Two more THAAD batteries are needed to provide U.S. Central Command and EUCOM with their own THAAD batteries and to maintain the current rotation and deployment of THAAD batteries.” Israel also has its own missile defense systems, including Arrow-3, Arrow-2, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome. ‘RAZIN’ CAINE, NOT ‘RAISIN’: In a follow-up to yesterday’s story about President Trump’s fascination with a one-star general he met on his December trip to Iraq — who he identified as Raisin (“like the fruit”) Caine — we now learn that the former F-16 instructor pilot’s call sign is “Razin” as in “raising,” not like the fruit as Trump said. It turns out one of my colleagues, Kimberly Dozier, a true war correspondent, was in possession of Brig. Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine’s business card. In Trump’s version of the story, he asked the good general, “What the hell kind of a name? I said, ‘Raisin, like the fruit?’ He goes, ‘Yes, sir, Raisin.’” Trump went on to wax rhapsodic about “Raisin Caine,” who he said provided him with the kind of unvarnished advice he complained he doesn’t get from his top commanders. Here’s how Trump described his back and forth with Caine at the Balad Air Base during his freewheeling CPAC speech Saturday. “I want to know why is it going to take two years to knock off 2 or 3 or 4 percent, which is what we had left.” “It won’t, sir.” And I said, “Tell me why it won’t.” “It won’t, sir. If we attack them in a different manner, we can do it much faster.” “Okay, General Raisin Caine, how fast can…” “Sir, we can have it totally finished in one week.” I said, “One week? I was told two years.” One week? “That’s right, sir. We’re only hitting them from a temporary base in Syria. But if you gave us permission, we could hit them from the back, from the side, from all over — from the base that you’re right on right now, sir. They won’t know what the hell hit them.” And I said, “Why didn’t my other generals tell me that? Why didn’t they tell me that?” I said, “Did you tell them that?” “Not our place to say it, sir. They come in from Washington, sir. We have to take orders. You’re the first one to ask us our opinion.” It’s true. It’s true. True. True. “I’m going to get back to you soon, Raisin. I think you’re great. I like you, Raisin Caine.” Incredible what you learn from being on the site. My father was a builder. He always used to say, “Nobody ever got rich by sitting behind their desk.” It’s true. It’s true. So given Trump’s affinity for people who tell him what he wants to hear, don’t be surprised if “Razin” Caine gets another star or two. It doesn’t hurt that the Air Force officer has had a stellar career, including a stint as a special operations forward air controller and airborne on-scene commander coordinating the nation’s fighter defense resources over Washington, D.C., on September 11, 2001. A request to interview Brig. Gen. Caine, who is still forward deployed in Iraq, produced this response from a Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman: “He is not taking any interviews as the fight against ISIS continues.” ON A PERSONAL NOTE: My first grandson was born at 1:51 a.m. EST, so I’m operating on very little sleep today. Please forgive any mistakes. Mother and baby are doing just fine. THE RUNDOWN New York Times: Disputed N.S.A. Phone Program Is Shut Down, Aide Says Washington Examiner: Pompeo: China’s socialist system causing sickness and death CNN: China’s military is going from strength to strength under Xi Jinping Wall Street Journal: Russia Suspends Nuclear Missile Treaty With U.S.: After Washington warns of pullout, Putin formally backs out of obligations under 1987 pact Defense One: Russia’s New ‘AI Supercomputer’ Runs on Western Technology Washington Post: At Germany’s last nuclear base, fears of a new arms race as U.S.-Russia treaty collapses Military Times: Final Assault Against ISIS Camp Launched Friday Night And Is Still Ongoing AP: Space Force Would Be By Far The Smallest Military Service Task and Purpose: Trump wants to give peace a chance, and it’s not working Forbes: Germany’s Policy Choices Are Hastening The Decline Of NATO Politico: Inside the Chaotic Early Days of Trump’s Foreign Policy New York Times: To Woo a Skeptical Trump, Intelligence Chiefs Talk Economics Instead of Spies Stars and Stripes: Marines investigating blackface video posted on social media The Virginian-Pilot: Norfolk-Based Sailor Used Military Discount to Buy Guns and Resell Them Al Monitor: US shifts weapons from Iraq to Syria Military Times: 16 cancer cases in one family: Base water contamination fight moves to Congress Military Times: The new plan to prevent veteran suicides: new grants, better research, more community focus Des Moines Register: A retiring Marine reflects on 18 years of war: What have we achieved? |
CalendarTUESDAY | MARCH 5 6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard. Association of the United States Army Institute of Land Warfare Breakfast Series with Army Chief Information Officer Lt. Gen. Bruce Crawford. www.ausa.org 8 a.m. 2201 G St N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast featuring Kiron Skinner, director of policy planning, U.S. State Department, Crain Center Duques Hall George Washington School of Business. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/ 8 a.m. 2300 Wilson Blvd., Suite 200. The Navy League Special Topic Breakfast, with Rear Adm. David Goggins, Program Executive Officer, Submarines. At Ritz Carlton, Pentagon City. www.navyleague.org 9 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel. Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory hosts its inaugural National Health Symposium. Speakers include Vice Adm. Raquel Bono, director Defense Health Agency; Adm. Brett Giroir MD, Assistant Secretary for Health HHS; retired Rear Adm. Scott Deitchman, Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences. http://www.ndia.org/events 9:30 a.m. Room G50 Dirksen. U.S. European and Supreme NATO Commander Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti and Army Gen. Stephen Lyons, commander U.S. Transportation Command testify on the FY 2020 budget at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee. www.armed-services.senate.gov. WEDNESDAY | MARCH 6 9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. “After the Trump-Kim summit 2.0: What’s next for US policy on North Korea?” www.brookings.edu 10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee Chairman hearing on “Outside Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence Policy and Posture. Witnesses: Bruce Blair, Princeton University; Joan Rohlfing, President and COO, The Nuclear Threat Initiative; Franklin Miller, The Scowcroft Group. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings 10 a.m. Cannon 310. “The Way Forward on Border Security.” www.homeland.house.gov 10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. “The Hanoi Summit: Implications and Opportunities.” www.stimson.org 2:30 p.m. 222 Russell. Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Personnel receives testimony on the Military Services’ prevention of and response to sexual assault. Two panels, 10 witnesses. www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings. THURSDAY | MARCH 7 9:30 a.m. 216 Hart. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the “chain of command’s accountability to provide safe military housing and other building infrastructure to servicemembers and their families.” All three service secretaries, and all four service chiefs are scheduled to testify. Army Secretary Mark Esper, Navy Secretary Richard Spencer, Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller, and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee hearing on “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Greater Middle East and Africa.” U.S. Central commander Gen. Joseph Votel, U.S. Africa commander Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, and Kathryn Wheelbarger, acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, testify. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings 11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W., Suite 400. “Revolution and Civil Unrest: Lessons From Venezuela and Syria.” www.hudson.org 12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. “The Next Steps for Combatting Terrorist Travel.” www.heritage.org 1:15 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave N.W. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts an expert panel to assess the outcome of the recent Hanoi summit between the United States and North Korea, followed by a speech from Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo. Panelists: Amb. Alexander Vershbow, Atlantic Council; David Nakamura, Washington Post White House correspondent; Victor Cha, Senior Adviser and Korea Chair, CSIS; and Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow, Korea chair, CSIS. www.csis.org 2:00 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces and Subcommittee on Readiness Joint Hearing: U.S. Transportation Command and Maritime Administration: State of the Mobility Enterprise. General Steve Lyons, Commander of the U.S. Transportation Command, and Rear Admiral Mark H. “Buz” Buzby, USN, Ret., Administrator of the Maritime Administration, are scheduled to testify. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings 2:45 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Bridging America’s Civil-Military Divide.” www.sais-jhu.edu MONDAY | MARCH 11 7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. www.carnegieendowment.org 1 p.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. “How Pakistan Navigates the Saudi Arabia-Iran Rivalry.” www.usip.org TUESDAY | MARCH 12 7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference (Day 2). www.carnegieendowment.org WEDNESDAY | MARCH 13 7 a.m. 1513 K St. N.W. McAleese/Credit Suisse 10th Annual FY2020 “Defense Programs” Conference. All-day speakers list includes Adm. John Richardson, chief of naval operations; Gen. Robert Neller, Marine Corps commandant; Ryan McCarthy, under secretary of the Army; Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., Armed Services Committee chairman; Rep. Joseph Courtney, D-Conn.; Rep. Robert Wittman, R-Va.; Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio; and many others. Email [email protected] to register. 4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. “Putin’s World.” www.brookings.edu THURSDAY | MARCH 14 2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The future of the Army in an era of great power competition.” www.brookings.edu TUESDAY | MARCH 19 8 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Religious Authority in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. Policy.” www.carnegieendowment.org |
|
