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NORTH KOREA: Stakes are high as President Trump prepares for Round Two of his summit diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, late next month. Trump is tweeting back against the widespread consensus among national security analysts that so far, there has been little tangible progress toward the stated goal of complete, verified and irreversible nuclear disarmament. “The Fake News Media loves saying ‘so little happened at my first summit with Kim Jong Un.’ Wrong!” Trump tweeted yesterday. “After 40 years of doing nothing with North Korea but being taken to the cleaners, & with a major war ready to start, in a short 15 months, relationships built, hostages & remains … back home where they belong, no more Rockets or M’s being fired over Japan or anywhere else and, most importantly, no Nuclear Testing.” “This is more than has ever been accomplished with North Korea, and the Fake News knows it. I expect another good meeting soon, much potential!,” Trump argued. HERITAGE BEGS TO DIFFER: Count among the “Fake News” crowd Bruce Klingner of the conservative Heritage Foundation, who said yesterday that there has been virtually no progress on denuclearization since last year’s Singapore Summit. “It’s not so much that the process has been derailed, it simply never left the station.” The former CIA deputy division chief for the Koreas argues that Trump made three major mistakes in Singapore: accepting a poorly-crafted summit statement that was weaker than predecessor agreements, unilaterally canceling allied military exercises (at least nine have been canceled to date), and warmly praising Kim, who is on the U.S. sanctions lists for human rights violations. “During a second summit, Trump must insist on tangible steps toward North Korean denuclearization, including a data declaration of the regime’s nuclear and missile programs,” Klingner says. “Trump shouldn’t offer more concessions nor agree to reduce UN and US sanctions until Kim moves beyond the symbolic gestures it has taken so far.” ADVICE FROM SOMEONE WHO’S BEEN THERE: Former Defense Secretary William Perry negotiated the last agreement with North Korea when he led the Pentagon in the 1990s. “I’ve dealt with North Korea for a long time and I’ve come to believe I understand what’s driving them, and what has been driving their nuclear weapons [program] for decades has been the desire to have deterrence against the United States.” Perry gives Trump full credit for taking the initiative in breaking the ice and lowering tensions between the two countries. “Let me say I’m very happy that Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim met a few months ago, and grant that the results from that have been positive,” he told a small group of reporters this week. “I applaud that, but I say it doesn’t relate to giving up their nuclear weapons. They have stopped testing, which is good, and they’ve stopped testing long-range missiles, which is good, but they’ve done nothing to dismantle their nuclear arsenal and there’s no evidence today thinking about doing that.” Perry, who is now 91 and heads a project aimed at ensuring that nuclear weapons are never used again, sees almost no chance the North Korea will actually give up its arsenal. “When I was negotiating with them 20 years ago what I was trying to offer them was security assurances that would make them willing to give it up. I don’t think that’s in the cards now,” Perry argued. “They may be willing to cap what they have. It doesn’t pose any substantial, aggressive, offensive threat to us. So, get them to agree to cap where they are, and then we start to try to develop a reasonable relationship with them to work away from the impression that we’re trying to overthrow the regime.” Perry says North Korea’s small nuclear arsenal of 10 to 20 bombs, may be something the U.S. can live with. “They have the capability, today I suppose to have the capability of killing millions of people in Seoul and Tokyo. But what’s their incentive for doing that? Because that leads to destruction. The one thing they hold as primary is the preservation of the regime and sustaining of the regime and the minute they fire a missile at Seoul or Tokyo, they’re toast, and they know that. So, they are self-deterred.” VERIFICATION IS THE KEY: 38 North, the think-tank on all things North Korea, backed by the Stimson Center, is out with a new white paper on what it calls a “pragmatic approach to nuclear safeguards and verification.” It also concludes that Kim Jong Un must be convinced he doesn’t need his nukes to hold on to power. “Realistically, the DPRK will seek to retain what it regards as an effective nuclear deterrent until it is convinced it no longer needs nuclear weapons to ensure its survival and the survival of the regime — and until it is convinced that the risks involved with having nuclear weapons, and the political, economic and opportunity costs, exceed the perceived benefit. Accordingly, progress on denuclearization and associated verification will depend on progress on broader issues, especially the development of a peace process and a sustainable relationship with the United States.” Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY — SHUTDOWN DAY 35: As expected both the Republican and Democratic bills to end the partial government shutdown failed in the Senate yesterday, and now the search is on for a face-saving way to end the impasse. Yesterday, President Trump confused the issue more by suggesting there was some support from Democrats for a “sort of a prorated down payment for the wall.” “I have no idea what that means,” said Sen. Ben Cardin D-Md. at a news conference yesterday with fellow Maryland Democrat Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski R-Alaska. The senators are trying to get a bipartisan movement to break the stalemate. “The folks that I work for back home are telling me very clearly, ‘Enough already.’ We don’t care if you have messaging votes. We want to know: what are you going to do to get the government back open? What are you going to do to make sure that I’m working and I’m getting paid?” Murkowski said. Cardin argued that if the government is reopened, and federal workers get their back pay, the Democrats will deal on border security. “What we have put on the table is our reputation as legislators that given three weeks, we’ll come up with a successful conclusion of border security issues. That’s putting the responsibility on the legislative branch of government. We’re willing to take that responsibility. So, from the point of view of the president, we’re prepared to say we’ll deliver.” THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY OPTION: Meanwhile the White House is reportedly preparing an executive order-like mandate to declare a national emergency at the southern border and make available $7 billion of federal money to enhance security at the U.S.-Mexico border. CNN is reporting that Internal documents indicate the White House is working on a proclamation that would give Trump the money to move on his border wall if Congress failed to give him the $5.7 billion he initially requested for the project. AMERICANS ORDERED OUT OF VENEZUELA: The State Department has ordered its non-essential staff to leave Venezuela, as embattled President Nicolas Maduro, backed by the military, went on the offensive against Juan Guaido, who has been recognized by President Trump as the legitimate leader of the country. The U.S. is refusing Maduro’s order to expel American diplomats, and yesterday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pledged $20 million in humanitarian aid, which he said fulfilled a request from Guaido. “These funds are to help them cope with the severe food and medicine shortages and other dire impacts of their country’s political and economic crisis,” Pompeo told a meeting of ambassadors at the Organization of American States. “Our announcement of aid is in response to a request from the National Assembly, led by the interim president.” U.S. CLOSER TO EXITING INF TREATY: Under Secretary of State Andrea Thompson isn’t “particularly optimistic” that Russia will comply with the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. That’s ahead of the Feb. 2 deadline before the Trump administration announces it will begin to withdraw from the treaty. Thompson, who met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in Geneva last week, told defense reporters at a breakfast yesterday, including my Examiner colleague Diana Stancy Correll, that her discussions “didn’t break any new ground.” Even so, Thompson says she’s prepared to discuss the matter against with Russia in Beijing during a United Nations meeting. The Cold War-era treaty bans missiles with ranges of 310 miles to 3,400 miles. Both the Obama and Trump administrations have said Russia is clearly violating the 1987 agreement, while Russia, against all evidence, continues to deny that it is not in compliance. NUCLEAR STICKER SHOCK: The news House Armed Services Committee chair, Rep. Adam Smith, said yesterday, “The current U.S. plans to replace and upgrade the nuclear weapons enterprise are unaffordable.” The Washington Democrat added, “The latest independent cost estimate for these upgrades is $94 billion higher than just two years ago, and we know the costs will continue to increase.” Smith, in a statement last night, said, “We must make smart choices in order to put our deterrent on an affordable and sustainable path in the decades to come and to reduce the risk of nuclear war.” Smith continued, “In recent times, U.S. national defense policy planning has largely refused to grapple with the size and scope of the budgetary burden that these nuclear modernization plans will impose. We cannot continue to blindly follow that path without a strategic discussion that asks the big questions about the best way to deter nuclear war, reassure our allies, maintain a credible and reliable deterrent, and accomplish our national objectives while taking into account budgetary reality.” DOOMSDAY CLOCK: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists says it metaphorical “Doomsday Clock” remained fixed at two minutes to midnight, citing a trio of existential threats: nuclear weapons, the challenges posed by climate change, and the use of social media to spread misinformation. “Humanity now faces two simultaneous existential threats, either of which would be cause for extreme concern and immediate attention. These major threats — nuclear weapons and climate change — were exacerbated this past year by the increased use of information warfare to undermine democracy around the world, amplifying risk from these and other threats and putting the future of civilization in extraordinary danger,” the group said yesterday. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is an independent and nonprofit organization whose executive chairman is now former California Gov. Jerry Brown. In 2018, the clock was moved from two and a half minutes to two minutes from midnight. Before that, the last time the clock was two minutes from midnight was in 1953, when the Soviet Union tested a hydrogen bomb soon after the U.S. did the same. TALIBAN AGREES TO KEY US DEMAND: The Taliban is on board with blocking al Qaeda and the Islamic State from entering Afghanistan to plot terrorist attacks, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. That’s been a requirement that the U.S. has pushed for since last July, and comes as the U.S. and the Taliban are participating in discussions in Doha, Qatar about how to resolve the conflict in Afghanistan. But still on the negotiating table is one of the Taliban’s main priorities: removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan. A source familiar with the deal told the Wall Street Journal conversations are continuing concerning the status of the approximately 14,000 U.S. troops in the region, as are discussions for future plans of U.S. bases in Afghanistan that the Taliban wants closed. SOMALIA BODY COUNTS: One lesson of the Vietnam War is that body counts are not a metric of success. That may be one reason the U.S. Africa Command is no longer released estimates of how many al-Shabaab militants are being killed in U.S. airstrikes in Somalia. For more than a year, the U.S. Africa Command has been issuing regular press releases after each U.S. airstrike in Somalia detailing now many strikes were conducted and how many al-Shabaab militants were believed to have been killed. But in the latest release announcing two airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia, on Jan. 23, 2019, no estimate of enemy dead was included. “We no longer discuss battle damage assessments resulting from our airstrikes,” said Maj. Karl Wiest, an AFRICOM spokesman, in response to an inquiry from the Washington Examiner. USS MONSOOR COMMISSIONING: Tomorrow in San Diego, the Navy is commissioning its newest Zumwalt-class destroyer, USS Michael Monsoor, named in honor of Navy SEAL who was posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor for his heroic actions in Iraq in 2006. The Navy has produced a video in which teammates of Navy Petty Officer 2nd Class (SEAL) Michael A. Monsoor share his story of his courageous and selfless actions, including dropping onto a grenade, saving the lives of his two teammates and the accompanying Iraqi soldiers. The $4.6 billion stealthy ship will be the second ship in the Zumwalt-class of destroyers, and includes new technologies and will serve as a multi-mission platform capable of operating as an integral part of naval, joint or combined maritime forces, the Navy says. The ceremony can be viewed on the Navy Live blog at http://navylive.dodlive.mil. GDIT WNS F-35 CONTRACT: General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT) announced yesterday it has recently awarded a $155.6 million contract for IT support to F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. “GDIT will provide knowledge-based, information assurance and cybersecurity IT services to the F-35 JSF Virtual Enterprise,” the company says. THE RUNDOWN Washington Examiner: New threats have Pentagon laser-focused NBC News: Navy to deny all civil claims related to Camp Lejeune water contamination New York Times: Venezuela’s Military Backs Maduro, As Russia Warns U.S. Not To Intervene Navy Times: Navy Sends Second Message To Moscow This Month Defense News: Here’s How Many Billions The U.S. Will Spend On Nuclear Weapons Over The Next Decade Seapower: Hypersonic Weapons, Cruise Missiles Gain Greater Focus In New Missile Defense Review Air Force Magazine: Boeing Formally Hands Over Two KC-46s to the Air Force, Delivery on Friday Morning Military.com: More Army Combat Arms Specialties Will Soon See Extended Training Defense One: U.S. Military Eyes Tiny Nuclear Reactors For Deployed Troops Military.com: Lawmakers Race to Introduce Veterans’ Medical Marijuana Bills in New Congress Stars and Stripes: Veterans groups still left in the dark over how sweeping law will change VA |
CalendarMONDAY | JANUARY 28 9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. “A conversation with the Chief of Naval Operations.” www.brookings.edu 12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave NE. Taxing Wars: The American Way of War Finance And the Decline of Democracy. www.heritage.org. TUESDAY | JANUARY 29 8 a.m. 2201 G Street N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Lt. Gen. Charles D. Luckey. 10 a.m. SD-342, Dirksen. Senate Homeland Security & Government Affairs business meeting. www.hsgac.senate.gov 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. “Department of Defense’s Support to the Southern Border.” www.armedservices.house.gov 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. “A discussion on the 2019 Missile Defense Review.” www.brookings.edu 12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Suite 400. “Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty.” www.hudson.org WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 30 9:30 a.m. 1152 15th Street, N.W., Suite 950. “A Realistic Path for Progress on Iran.” www.cnas.org 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Geopolitical Implications of a New Era on the Korean Peninsula.” www.wilsoncenter.org THURSDAY | JANUARY 31 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “The Belarus Dilemma: For Minsk and the West.” www.atlanticcouncil.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 5 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Book Launch: On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War.” www.wilsoncenter.org 12 p.m. 1800 M Street N.W., Suite 800. By invitation only — “Preparing for a cyber-enabled economic warfare attack.” www.fdd.org WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 6 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “Maintaining Maritime Superiority: Discussion With the Chief of Naval Operations.” www.atlanticcouncil.org 10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “A conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) on the Senate’s role in foreign policy.” www.aei.org THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 7 11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street, NW. “Regaining the High Ground at Sea: Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition” https://csbaonline.org |
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