Cyberattacks dragging down the Internet could cost the world up to $90 trillion by 2030, according to a new study, unless cybersecurity advances at a rapid pace.
The study, published by the Atlantic Council and the Zurich Insurance Group, notes that the world could derive up to $190 trillion in economic benefit in a best-case scenario. “Tens and even hundreds of trillions of dollars are at stake,” the authors state, or “nearly 10 percent of total global GDP.”
“Most of the experts consulted for the report were not optimistic about our future, with a consensus that the trends were heading in the wrong direction,” the authors said. “These trends may be approaching a tipping point, with perhaps a small window of a few years to pull back and reorient towards a more secure and more resilient Internet.”
In looking at alternatives, the authors suggested that there were multiple possibilities for the future. The best case scenario, “Cyber Shangri-La,” is described as “the future in which all of Silicon Valley’s dreams come true.” Additionally, people will “have widespread and well-founded trust in the technologies, providers and behavior of other netizens.”
The alternative, worst-case scenario, “Clockwork Orange Internet,” is a virtual future “made up of ultra-violent ‘bad neighborhoods.'” Cyberoffense would become “unbeatable,” and new security initiatives are quickly torn down by “nations, hackers or curious security researchers.”
The study identifies twelve “game-changing” technologies that it predicts will contribute the most to economic output. They are “mobile Internet, automation of knowledge work, the Internet of Things, cloud technology, advanced robotics, autonomous and near-autonomous vehicles, next-generation genomics, energy storage, 3D printing, advanced materials, advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery, and renewable energy.”
Of those, it continues, the Internet of Things has the most potential to add to costs associated with cyberattacks. It consists of emerging, Internet-connected devices like baby monitors, smoke alarms, security cameras, vehicles, lighting and other household items. “These devices are typically far less secure than your computer or mobile phone,” the study says, and “the software is probably infrequently checked for vulnerabilities.”
Unfortunately, the study adds, the “window has probably already closed” for the Internet of Things to be made entirely secure at the pace necessary to avoid any economic downside. The potential harm in that has already been illustrated by recent reports that several types of baby monitors are vulnerable to hackers.
To minimize economic disruption, the authors add, will require collaboration by private actors, supported by global rule of law. “A strong and resilient Internet will be driven by a healthy non-state sector, supported when needed by governments,” they say, calling it “a global collective action problem that requires a sense of joint stewardship over the Internet.” They also call for actions “that go far beyond just admonitions to ‘improve cybersecurity.'”
The U.S. and other Western countries are still grappling with how to deal with malicious cyber activity, particularly from state-backed actors. The U.S. has had no public response to North Korea’s cyberassault on Sony earlier this year, and is still considering sanctions to be imposed on Chinese companies that obtain commercial secrets by hacking American actors.
