Republican presidential candidate John Kasich’s floundering campaign may receive a much-needed boost thanks to next week’s debate, hosted by the Fox Business Network.
The debate will alter the GOP field, at least to some degree, with a main stage that is set to include just six or seven candidates, the lowest number since the debates began in August. Fox’s criteria to make the cut, released in December, appear likely to put Kasich on the main stage, giving him more exposure and more time to talk in a less-crowded field.
Fox’s debate criteria state that candidates have three ways to make it on stage, based on the recognized five most recent polls ahead of the event on Jan. 14: Place in the top six nationally, in the top five in Iowa or in the top five in New Hampshire.
Kasich is polling around 1 percent nationally and in Iowa, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, which isn’t good enough. But in New Hampshire, he’s in fifth place, averaging nearly 10 percent.
“Whether Kasich makes the main stage will depend on polls almost sure to come in over the next six days from New Hampshire,” said Darrell Rowland, a reporter with the Ohio Columbus Dispatch. He said it’s unclear right now if Kasich’s new support in New Hampshire will be enough to get him on the stage because new polls could show it shrinking.
Still, the current governor of Ohio has seen his popularity rise in New Hampshire over the last few weeks, giving him a shot at staying in the top tier debate group.
Kasich’s numbers have been on the rise since mid December, when he was averaging around 7 percent. The increase in popularity is likely the result of Kasich’s increased presence in the state and a pro-Kasich Super PAC spending millions on advertising there.
The governor is competing for the same faction of moderate Republican voters as his GOP rivals Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.
Kasich has suggested that losing New Hampshire would be catastrophic to his candidacy. “If I get destroyed in New Hampshire, then that’s the end of the game,” he told The Wall Street Journal in a recent interview.
While Kasich is on the cusp of benefiting from Fox’s upcoming debate criteria, two candidates who are polling better than him nationally, Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul, appear likely to get the short end of the stick.
Neither one of them currently fulfills any of the three requirements to make the main debate stage. Barring any dramatic changes, both will be relegated to the “undercard” debate, which have up until now received far less viewership and media attention than the primetime events.
