Tuesday night’s primaries were crazier than expected. A former governor lost his primary in a significant upset. An establishment Republican beat a self-declared “outsider” to win a senate nomination. Democrats picked statewide candidates out of multi-way melees. And for the first time in U.S. history, a transgender person won a major party gubernatorial nomination.
And only four states were voting.
So here’s a state-by-state breakdown of some of the most important primaries from Tuesday night.
MINNESOTA: The Biggest Upset of the Night Plus Four Key House Races
The biggest upset of the night was in Minnesota’s gubernatorial primary. Tim Pawlenty—a former two-term GOP governor—lost to Jeff Johnson, the Hennepin County Commissioner (part of Minneapolis).
When Pawlenty entered the race, most analysts (me included) and handicappers put it at “Toss-up” or “Leans Democratic.” The basic idea was that Tim Pawlenty had won before, had decent approval ratings while he was governor and would probably be able to keep this race on the map.
But Pawlenty had some disadvantages. He hasn’t always been the most exciting campaigner, and he had been highly critical of President Trump in the past. He’s also spent the last few years working as a lobbyist. You could also argue that Pawlenty (a pre-Trump Republican who was governor from 2003 to 2011) wasn’t a perfect fit for a Trumpian Republican party. All of that likely helped Johnson (who was the 2014 gubernatorial nominee) beat Pawlenty.
Johnson will likely face off against Democratic Rep. Tim Walz (again, the race hadn’t been called as of Tuesday night) in the general election.
Walz’s win wasn’t a big surprise. The polling showed a tight race between him and Lori Swanson, the state’s attorney general, heading into Election Day—meaning that a Walz win was highly plausible (though his final vote percentage did exceed his poll numbers by double digits). Walz starts out with the advantage in this race. National conditions favor Democrats, and Walz has a solid electoral record. He managed to hold his district in 2016 despite Trump winning it by 15 points. Pawlenty might have made this race competitive, but it’s not clear that Johnson will. Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced that it would move the race from the “Toss-Up” category to the “Leans Democratic” category once it became clear that Johnson would be the nominee.
But Minnesota isn’t totally lost for the GOP. Republicans got their preferred candidate—Pete Stauber, former police officer and hockey player—in the 8th district, which voted for Trump by 16 points. Democrat Joe Radinovich, who looked like the favorite heading into the primary, will likely face Stauber in the general. And in the 1st district (an open seat that voted for Trump by 15 points in 2016 and Obama by one point in 2012), Republican Jim Hagedorn (who almost won the seat in 2016) will likely take on Democrat Dan Feehan (a veteran and Obama alum). Both districts are rated as “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report.
Democrats also have two House pickup opportunities in Minnesota—the 2nd and the 3rd district.
There wasn’t much competition in the 2nd district primary—Republican Rep. Jason Lewis is set to face off against Democrat Angie Craig. Lewis may be vulnerable. He represents a swing district and CNN recently unearthed tapes of him making some highly controversial statements on his old radio show.
The 3rd district is home to a large number of Republican voters who passed on Trump in 2016—Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and Clinton won by 9 points in 2016. One of those non-Trump-voting Republicans, Congressman Erik Paulsen (he wrote in Marco Rubio), will face off against Democrat Dean Phillips this fall.
WISCONSIN: The “Establishment” Wins Again, Walker is in for a tough race, and “Ironstache” runs for Ryan’s seat
In Wisconsin’s senate primary, the GOP establishment won again. Leah Vukmir, who had the backing of the state party apparatus, beat Kevin Nicholson, who hammered her for being insufficiently supportive of President Trump in the past.
Vukmir is probably going to lose to Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin (Baldwin is ahead in the polls by a wide margin). But it’s an interesting data point when it comes to the insider/outsider divide within the GOP. Some “outsider” candidates (e.g. Mike Braun in Indiana) have fared well during the Trump Era. While others (e.g. Don Blankenship in West Virginia) have performed very poorly. It’ll take time to figure out exactly what this race means, but part of the message seems to be that location matters—that is, the insider/outsider dynamic may play differently in different states.
Republican Gov. Scott Walker is also set up for a competitive race against Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers.
RealClearPolitics gives Evers an 5.4 point advantage in their polling average. That’s not an insurmountable lead, but it’s almost always better to be ahead in the polls than behind. Moreover, the overall political climate will be tougher for Republicans in 2018 than it was in 2010 and 2014, when Walker won regularly scheduled elections.
And in Wisconsin’s 1st district—represented by retiring House Speaker Paul Ryan—Democrat Randy Bryce (the Bernie Sanders endorsed iron-worker who is also known as “Ironstache”) will face off against Republican Bryan Steil (Ryan’s preferred candidate) in November. This race could be competitive—it’s an open seat that Trump won by about 10 points and Romney won by 4. And it might get ugly. During the primary, Cathy Myers (Bryce’s opponent) brought up late child support payments and past arrests. Those themes might come up again in the general election.
VERMONT: Republican Gov. Phil Scott (who recently came under fire for supporting gun control legislation) made it past a challenger from the right. He starts out as a favorite in the race against Democrat Christine Hallquist, the first transgender person to win a major party gubernatorial nomination.
CONNECTICUT: Ned Lamont (yes, that Ned Lamont) is going to face Republican Bob Stefanowski in the fall. It’s a weird race—the Republican will likely run away from Trump (who has a 40 percent approval rating in Morning Consult) and Lamont will likely try to distance himself from Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy (who has a 21 percent approval rating in Morning Consult). But right now the race looks competitive, and it’s worth keeping an eye on.
