Ted Cruz is on the move in Indiana ahead of a May 3 primary that figures significantly in the race for convention delegates.
Businessman Donald Trump is still the front-runner, both nationally and in Indiana. But Republican insiders across the state said in interviews Wednesday that the momentum there is now with Cruz, a shift that predated his resounding defeat of Trump in Wisconsin.
The timing is crucial. Early voting started Tuesday; absentee ballots hit mailboxes in late March.
The Cruz campaign deployed the Texas senator’s father, Pastor Rafael Cruz, to Indiana for the week to woo voters, and is transferring its Wisconsin team there to begin field operations. As Cruz was enjoying his big victory Tuesday evening, his father was addressing a crowd of hundreds at the Cornerstone Christian Church in Brownsburg, 30 miles northwest of Indianapolis.
“It’s going to be competitive,” David Buskill, executive director of the Indiana Republican Party, said, of the state’s first seriously contested GOP presidential primary in 40 years.
Cruz was expected to announce his Indiana leadership in the coming days. Trump unveiled his team Wednesday. Gov. John Kasich of Ohio previously announced the hiring of top Anne Hathaway, a well-regarded Republican consultant in the state. Rex Early, a veteran Republican insider and former head of the state party, is leading the billionaire’s campaign in the Hoosier State.
“Indiana is going to be Trump country,” Early boasted, during a telephone interview with the Washington Examiner. “I don’t think it’s going to be competitive.”
Gov. Mike Pence, a conservative stalwart and former congressman who considered his own 2016 presidential bid, could tip the scales with an endorsement. Ideologically, Pence aligns with Cruz. He shares a bond with Kasich, his neighbor to the east who could also be a major factor in the Indiana primary. Pence also appreciates Trump’s unique executive experience.
The Hoosier’s interest in national leadership would suggest an endorsement is forthcoming. Govs. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Scott Walker of Wisconsin saw their profiles rise and enjoyed vice presidential chatter after playing in their respective states’ primaries (Haley backed now former candidate Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Walker campaigned for Cruz).
However, Pence’s re-election bid is expected to be competitive and he cannot afford to alienate voters. Many Indiana Republicans are skeptical that he’ll wade into a competitive primary given these concerns. A senior Pence adviser said the governor is weighing his options and whether to activate his statewide network on behalf of a presidential contender.
“He hasn’t ruled out making an endorsement,” said Marty Obst, executive director of Pence’s re-election campaign. “The governor is willing to meet with each of the candidates and consider an endorsement at that time.”
Curt Smith, a Cruz supporter who is close with Pence, said the governor’s endorsement would significantly boost the senator’s prospects in Indiana. Smith, president of the Indiana Family Institute in Indianapolis, said the move would also benefit Pence. Smith’s endorsement of Cruz is independent of his organization.
“Mike’s opportunity is to lock in his base,” said Smith, who is spending the week shepherding Cruz’s father to various events. “He’s doing well — much better than a year ago. I doubt if the governor will endorse anyone. But it would be helpful to Mr. Cruz and helpful to Mr. Pence.”
Trump leads Cruz and Kasich in the hunt for Republican convention delegates. But Cruz gained ground with his win in Wisconsin on Tuesday, making it more likely that the nomination is decided in a contested, multi-ballot floor fight in Cleveland. Trump needs 1,237 delegates to clinch; he leads Cruz 743 to 517. Kasich trails with 143.
Trump is expected to pad his delegate lead with a victory in his home state of New York on April 19, and with additional predicted wins in a collection of Mid Atlantic and Northeastern states that vote April 26. But that might not be enough to avoid an open convention, especially if Cruz wins the majority of Indiana’s 57 delegates. The state GOP awards three per congressional district won, plus 27 to the statewide winner.
Indiana Republicans haven’t experienced a competitive presidential primary in decades, and the only public polling that exists for 2016 is several weeks old (the state doesn’t register by party, any voter can participate in the GOP primary). So it’s hard to predict how this campaign might unfold. Experienced GOP operatives in the state with access to private data say Trump is maintaining his months-long position, with support of about 30-35 percent of likely primary voters.
Kasich’s numbers are rising and he could compete for delegates. But the governor trails Cruz, whose uptick is more robust. There is a palpable sense that support for the senator is growing, and he presents the bigger threat to Trump.
“There really is movement to Cruz, that is very clear,” said a GOP strategist in Indiana, requesting anonymously because his clients had not authorized him to speak publicly on the race. “There has been no movement for Trump.”
Indiana is regionally and, within the context of the spectrum of traditional Republican voters, demographically diverse.
Indianapolis and its environs offer urban and suburban living, and tend to be populated by more establishment-minded Republicans. Southwestern Indiana is coal country, and home to the white working class. And, several pockets of the state are rural and dotted with farms. They tend to be home to evangelicals and religious Catholics and are socially conservative.
The Indianapolis media market serves half the state’s population. But the rest gets its news coverage from Cincinnati and Dayton, Ohio; Chicago and Louisville, Ky., and a smattering of local Indiana media markets. The communities served by Ohio media could be friendly territory for Kasich, who also could do well in the capital city and surrounding suburbs.
Cruz and Trump should be competitive in those areas as well. The real estate mogul and reality television star is likely to do particularly well in Southwestern Indiana; the Texas senator could run up the score in rural communities.
David McIntosh, a former GOP congressman from Indiana who is now president of the Club for Growth, a conservative group that opposes Trump, said Republicans in his home state are looking for a conservative who can beat likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
“They’re looking for someone who is first and foremost a conservative,” McIntosh said. “Second, someone who is presidential in demeanor and in presentation — and who shows they can beat Hillary, that they can win.”
